Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020007 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 807 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z. LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE 12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION. HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN. && .MARINE... SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB- SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... JUNE 2015 CLIMATE: AT NORFOLK: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD. *TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD. AT RICHMOND: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JAO CLIMATE...

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