Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130903 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 403 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure moves across the area through this afternoon, then pushes off the coast this evening. High pressure builds back into and over the area tonight through Wednesday. A mainly dry cold front will drop across the region very late Wednesday night into early Thursday afternoon.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Early this morning (as of 400 am), area of rain in advance of trough of low pressure was pushing ewrd thru cntrl/ern VA and into the Lower MD ern shore and NE NC. Hi res model ref (HRRR) shows back edge of current radar trends moving east of I95 by around 13Z (800 am), then just off the Lower MD and VA ern shore and down into NE NC by around 16Z (1100 am). Last of pcpn should then push off extrm SE VA and NE NC coast between 18Z-20Z (100 pm-300 pm). Still expect QPF to be between one tenth to one half inch acrs the area with this system. Should see sky become at least partly sunny most areas fm later this morning thru this aftn, as system exits. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Drying continues tonight, as the center of high pressure builds SE thru the Great Lakes into the nrn OH Valley. Mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to the mid 40s. The high will build eastward and into the NE U.S. Tue through Tue night, with the ridge axis extending down into the Mid Atlc region. Generally partly sunny on Tue, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. The surface ridge remains in place into Wed as the high passes from the Great lakes to off New England. Continues cool Wednesday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Temps may warm some on Wed based in increasing thicknesses into the mid to upper 50s with near 60 at the coast. High pressure will be right over the region on Wed, then slides off the coast Wed night as a mainly dry cold front drops .
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The high slides off the coast Wed night, as a mainly dry cold front drops acrs the region very late Wed night into early Thu aftn. High pressure builds back down over the area Thu aftn thru Fri. Lows Wed night will mainly range fm the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thu 60 to 65. Lows Thu night will range fm the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 50s to near 60. The next significant weather maker looks to push into the region Fri night into Sat. Models differ on the exact timing, but trends have been wetter in the long range guidance. Strong return flow Saturday sets up ahead of a sharp cold front. Model timing differs by almost 18 hours, but blending the guidance suggests increase shower chances Saturday and perhaps into Saturday night. Cannot rule out some thunder given the intensity of this system. Expect a sharp return to colder temps next late next weekend behind the front.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR at all TAF sites between 07Z and 12Z this morning, as area of rain moves into and across the region in advance of a trough of low pressure. Then, as the pcpn and associated trough move east and off the coast late this morning into this aftn, conditions will improve to MVFR then VFR later this aftn into this evening. OUTLOOK...VFR conditions then expected for Mon night thru Wed as high pressure builds back into and over the area. && .MARINE... Weak sfc trough lingers invof waters w/ weak sfc hi pres just inland into this morning...while a cold front approaches from the W. That front exits the waters by late today...to be followed by (rather short-lived) CAA on increased mainly N winds (15-25 kt) and corresponding rise in waves/seas. Have added the srn Ches Bay...Currituck Sound...and mid ocean waters to the SCA. Highest winds/gusts from about 03Z- 17Z/14. Conditions improve Tue afternoon...though w/ NE fetch continuing into Wed will extend SCA over the srn ocean waters through Wed morning as seas remain slow to fall blo 5 ft. Sfc hi pres returns by Wed...before another cold front crosses the waters by late Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG/JAO LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB

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