Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 161444
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1044 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will settle just off the mid Atlantic coast through
Monday. The High will slide south of the area Monday night through
Wednesday...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area
through mid week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Latest analysis depicts ~1026 mb surface high pressure, centered
from off the mid-Atlantic coast to central NC. Fog has eroded and
skies are now mainly sunny (a few areas to the east of the I-95
corridor and N of I-64 still seeing some low clouds but this is
now rapidly dissipating as well.
For the rest of today, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies with
temperatures warming nicely into the lower-mid 70s (possibly upper
70s a few areas W of I-95 depending on degree of aftn mixing).
While there should be some Cu development in the aftn across far
Se VA/northeast NC, the onshore flow is lighter than yesterday and
expect that the cloud cover will be significantly less than
yesterday so that even in these areas skies will be partly to
Surface High begins to slide south along the SE coast tonight.
Mainly clear sky and light winds will again favor quick drop off
of temps just after sunset, and areas of fog late centered along
and just inland of the SE coastal zones. Early morning lows
average through the 50s to near 60 along the coast.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong upper level ridge builds ENE from the western Gulf across
the deep south and into the Carolinas for the first half of the
week ahead. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds along and just
offshore of the SE coast. Resultant return flow/building heights
aloft will promote continued warming trend Mon-Wed, with high
temperatures running at least 10 degrees above avg. PW values
remain AOB 0.75" throughout this period, w/dry and mostly sunny
conditions expected to prevail. Highs Monday will avg in the upper
70s to lower 80s, with 80-85 F expected Tue and mid 80s Wed/Thu.
Early morning lows Monday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s...and
in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper high pushes offshore Thursday ahead of a deepening
upper level trough over the central US. Dry conditions expected
Thursday, resulting in another warm day with highs generally in
the mid to upper 70`s. Medium range guidance still struggling with
handling the evolution of the central US trough, with the 15/12Z
guidance now dropping the trough and a closed low into the deep
South into the weekend. Meanwhile, a weakness under the the ridge
offshore of the Southeast coast will lift northward Thursday night
and Friday. Differences in the trough will have an impact on where
the associated surface low lifts. Not buying into the GFS yet due
to drastic swings in the placement of the upper low the past few
runs. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Friday and await better
consensus in future model runs. Highs Friday generally in the
upper 60`s to low 70`s under increasing cloudiness. Cold front
expected to reach the local area in the Friday night to Saturday
time frame. Anomalous upper trough progged to take on a negative
tilt Saturday, with an area of low pressure developing along the
Southeast coast. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Saturday. Highs
in the mid to upper 60`s under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky.
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds light/variable to nearly calm everywhere through sunrise,
with High res and time lagged model data have allowed patchy
ground fog/mifg to develop this morning, centered along the
coastal plain. Have added tempo mention for LIFR VSBY in fog at
SBY/PHF through 13z, with fog likely clearing by 14z. Once fog
clears, VFR conds and mostly clear conditions expected today and
early tonight. Some more cumulus possible by midday, again mainly
toward the coast.
OUTLOOK...Dry weather/VFR conditions is expected to persist through
Thursday. Only exception will be with patchy fog, which will be
possible late tonight and early each morning around sunrise, with
the best chances remaining along coastal terminals.
Sfc high pressure will remain over the waters (especially the
srn waters) through Tue. Meanwhile, a sfc low pushing through
the Upper Great Lakes and across SE Canada Mon night through
Tue night will briefly squash the sfc high sewd...allowing a
tightening sfc pressure gradient to develop Tue night into
Wed morning before weak high pressure rebounds over the srn
waters. A more potent upper trough approaches the region from
the west late in the week and is expected to swing through the
area on Sat. Meanwhile, a possible low pressure approaches
well off the Southeast Coast and deepens as it moves up the
Eastern Seaboard. At this time, the position of the upper
trough should keep the Atlantic low away from the immediate
Winds variable 5-10kt today...becoming SW late tonight through
Tue aob 15kt. A brief swly surge is possible Tue aftn into Wed
morning due to a tightening pressure gradient from a sfc low
tracking across SE Canada. Wind speeds will average 10-20kt
Ches Bay/all coastal waters...10-15kt Ern VA Rivers/Sound.
Winds to remain S-SW and diminish Wed morning through Thu
morning to roughly aob 12kt. Winds then become more sely ahead
of the approaching upper trough with speeds aob 10kt Thu
through Fri. A decent shot of cold air advection associated
with the upper trough will allow winds to become NW aob 15kt.
Seas average 2-4ft this week...possibly up to 5ft out near 20NM
north of Parramore Island during the swly surge Tue night into
Wed morning. Waves average 1-2ft on Ches Bay this week...only
building up to 3ft in the mouth of the Bay late in the week
with the cold air surge.
Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has
resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level
hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Estimated return to service is no
later than Monday afternoon unless otherwise noted.