Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240808 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 408 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will linger off the southeast coast through Tuesday, then slowly lift northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest weather analysis reveals 1020+mb surface high pressure in place from the northeast coast to just off of the coast of SE New England. To the south, surface low pressure continues to lift across SE GA toward far S SC...with the frontal boundary extending E-NE along the SC coast and offshore. Aloft, objective analysis shows the deepening mid/upper level low pushing across the lower MS River Valley toward the Deep South. Low level wedge is still well established over the FA early this morning...w/ moisture transport N providing cool/cloudy wx w/ ongoing periods rain. Lingering Light rain and drizzle persists early on this morning, before a more widespread, steadier rainfall takes hold later this morning and this afternoon as better overrunning moisture pushes into the area, as upper low reaches the SE coast and begins to take on a Neg tilt. Continued mainly likely to categorical POP continues w/periods of rain. Highs mid to upper 50s in the piedmont to around 70 along the se coast. QPF 1/4" to 1/2", highest out in the piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No major changes in forecast rationale this morning. The primary forecast concern with this system comes tonight and Tuesday when the tropical moisture off the Florida coast gets entrained then rotates nnw around the vertically stacked system as it slowly lifts north along the Mid-Atlantic coast. SPC WRF shows area of heavier showers and t-storms lifting NE from the coastal front, reaching our area overnight. Therefore, do continue to expect the pcpn type to go back to more of a convective one, at least along the coast. Lows tonight/early Tuesday from near 50 NW to the lwr 60s SE. A bit more humid Tuesday with highs in the low-mid 60s NW to low- mid 70s SE. Pcpn tapers off west to east Tuesday night/early Wed with lows in the 50s. Decreasing cloudiness and warmer Wed. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s NE zones...middle to upper 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Long term period will feature above normal temps with mainly dry wx. For Wed night/Thu, deep SWly flow develops across the eastern seaboard as the aforementioned low pushes off to the NE. An upper- level ridge then builds in through the weekend allowing for warm temps and dry wx as most of the energy aloft will stay N and W of the local area. At most a 20% chance of a late day shra/tstm Fri and Sat. High temps Thu through Sun in the 80s, pushing upper 80s on Sat. Low temps in the 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 08z...Weak high pressure was south of New England and a complex area of low pressure was over Georgia and Srn SC. The area of low pressure will slowly spread into the Carolinas this morning. Dry air that is a result of the high to the north was keeping SBY mainly dry and VFR early this morning. In the mean time...areas of light rain were moving through the rest of the TAF sites with periodic MVFR conditions. Expect rain to become more widespread later this morning/aftn with IFR ceilings increasing in coverage from south to north after 12-14z. Winds will continue from the northeast and will be gusty at times (15-23 kts) especially near the coast. OUTLOOK...Low pressure will strengthen near the Carolina coast tonight and Tuesday spreading heavier rain and more consistent IFR conditions to the area. Winds will be mainly from the east and will be gusty over eastern portions. As low pressure moves up the coast rain and degraded aviation conditions will begin to diminish by early Wednesday. Dry weather is in store Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the Southeast States. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure off the Northeast coast and low pressure over the Southeast. The result is ongoing northeast flow over the local waters. Have seen an uptick in speeds early this morning as pressure falls and increasing low level winds spread over the waters. Gusts to around 30 knots observed in the southern coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay. Seas average 4-6 feet and waves 2-4 feet. Low pressure slide off the Southeast coast today as high pressure slides farther offshore. Sustained winds average 20-25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots over the Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. Gradient winds diminish over the southern waters and Sound later this morning, with SCA headlines dropping off for the sound. Rivers average 15-20 knots. Seas build to 5-8 feet in the northern coastal waters this afternoon and subside to 4-6 feet in the southern coastal waters. Waves average 3-5 feet. Low pressure lifts over the eastern Carolinas tonight. Anomalous easterly low level flow spreads over the waters late tonight ahead of the advancing surface low. Pressure falls of 3-6mb in 6 hours will help mix some of the higher velocity winds aloft (925mb winds of 45-55 knots) to the water. As a result, have issued gale headlines for the lower Bay and coastal waters late tonight into Tuesday morning for gusts of 35 to 40 knots. Have also added the lower James to gale headlines for a 3-6 hour period of gale gusts to around 35 knots. As the strong easterly winds overspread the waters, seas will build quickly to 7-10 feet. High surf advisories have been issued for all coastal areas. Low pressure lifts over the waters Tuesday afternoon, with improving conditions over the southern coastal waters and lower Bay. Seas slowly subside to 5-9 feet (highest north). Low pressure centers over the waters Tuesday night as winds diminish at or below 15 knots. However, seas will be slow to subside as the low lifts north of the waters through Wednesday. Still anticipate 4-7 foot seas Wednesday afternoon. Waves 1-2 feet. Sub-sca conditions expected all waters Thursday as the low weakens north of the waters. The next front approaches the waters Friday, stalling over the northern waters Friday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures are averaging 1 to 1.5 feet thanks to persistent onshore flow. Tidal departures will build through midweek as onshore flow prevails ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Majority of the tidal locations in the bay and Atlantic coast will reach action stage tonight, with minor flooding possible but not likely for areas along the James River. However, tidal departures increase to 1.5 to 2 feet Monday. Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tide Monday night and again on Tuesday, especially in the lower Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic waters. Depending on the exact track of the low, high end minor to low end moderate coastal flooding is possible Tuesday night. Departures subside Wednesday as low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast and flow becomes offshore. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-638- 650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-638- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MAM/LSA MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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