Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 202004 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front remains nearly stationary over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina through Wednesday. The boundary dissipates late in the week allowing the Bermuda high to build back in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak/diffuse frontal boundary invof SE VA-NE NC...remains so through tonight. Extensive corridor of significant cloudiness covers from offshore of the MD/VA/NC coasts on SW to the central Gulf coast. The cloudiness has nudged NNW during the afternoon...and will remain so through the night. SHRAS-ISOLD tstms will continue this evening...mainly ovr coastal NE NC. Weak S/W aloft crosses the area late tonight...spreading some lower level CIGs and possible ISOLD/SCT (manly) SHRAS N into at least SE 1/2 of FA. Lows from the u60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Flow aloft becomes more W-NW beginning Wed afternoon/evening and gradually shifts the moisture axis associated with the stalled boundary SE of the local area (through Wed night). After that...remnant boundary becomes a warm front which lifts back N Thu night-Fri. Highs Wed in the l-m80s. Lows Wed night in the u60s-l70s. Partly sunny Thu w/ highs in the u80s-l90s. Moisture return and PoPs increasing by late Thu night into Fri. Will raise PoPs to 40-60% by Fri morning along-W of a ORF-LKU line...taping to 10% on the MD eastern shore. VRB clouds w/ SCT SHRAS/tstms possible through Fri afternoon. Highs in the m-u80s...except l80s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lots of uncertainty in the extended range as models differ on handling strength and timing of several frontal boundaries along with the movement of now TS Cindy. The operational 12z GFS is strong and faster than the previous 6z run with a cold front that would sweep across the area on Saturday by 18z with the remnant of Cindy pushing through quickly ahead of the front. The 6z GFS was at least 6 to 12 hours slower and was weaker with the front. The 00z ECMWF was even slower than the GFS with the remnants of Cindy being left behind the initial frontal boundary, which stalls over the area on Saturday with the sfc low associated with Cindy getting pulled over the area Saturday night. A stronger secondary front arrives Monday and finally pushes the humidity off the coast by Tuesday. The WPC guidance is much closer to the ECMWF scenario and slower, which given the time of the year makes sense as the frontal boundaries of late have struggled to make it through the CWA. So as a result, have held onto a mention of precipitation into the day on Monday, but the best chances for rain should be from Friday night into the day on Sunday as the remnants of Cindy increase the moisture over the region. I don`t think it is wet all the time, but expect some periods of showers with the best chance being during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures are a challenge as well with cloud cover creating much of the uncertainty. While temperatures should drop a degree or two each day, clouds could certainly have an impact and either hold readings down more than expected or should the clouds break more than expected, readings could certainly jump. Right now, have reading in the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday and gradually reduce highs on Sunday and Monday as couple degrees with the front in the area. By Tuesday however, expect to see a stronger push of cooler and drier air which could get highs back down around 80. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Extensive mainly high level cloudiness over the FA w/ VFR CIGS. SCT SHRAs/ISOLD tstms will be lingering invof ECG into tonight as stalled frontal boundary hangs over SE VA-NE NC. Weak system aloft lowers CIGS late tonight/Wed morning...w/ possible ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. Drying/VFR conditions expected Wed afternoon/night. Remnant front front transitions into a weak warm front and is expected to lift N late Thu into Fri as gulf moisture gets pulled into the TN Valley. VFR conditions expected Thu...w/ a return of at least SCT SHRAS/tstms and possible periods of MVFR conditions late Thu night into Fri. && .MARINE... Weakening frontal boundary continues to hang just off the nc/va coast in a ne to sw orientation, with some light showers along and south of the front. Little convergence is left along the front and winds are generally light from the southwest. This flow pattern will continue through Wednesday afternoon when a reinforcing cold front swings into the region. This will turn the winds more westerly and increase to around 10 to 15 kt. Weak high pressure will settle over the region Wed night into Thursday with the winds again slacking to around 5 to 10 kt. Overall not anticipating any sca headlines at this time. For Friday into the weekend, will be watching the movement of TS Cindy in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Models show that the remnants of Cindy could move over the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday or Sunday ahead of the next cold front that should arrive on Sunday. Not anticipating much in the way of a wind, but could see a period of showers and thunderstorms as this remnants move through. However, there is still much uncertainty in the movement of the system which could pass north of the region too. So at this point, will just need to monitor the movement of this system over the next few days. Outside of Cindy, will see a tighten of the pressure gradient with the approach of a cold front and the reestablishment of the Bermuda High. This could lead to some 15 to 20 kt sw winds and increasing seas. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...ALB/BMD MARINE...ESS

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