Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250558 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1258 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A SMALL PORTION OF FA WELL WNW OF RIC RMNS UNDER LO LVL COOL AIR WEDGE. OTRW...MUCH WARMER AIRMASS RMNS IN PLACE ELSW. TEMPS RANGE FM THE M/U50S FAR WNW TO THE U60S/ARND 70F SE. THERE IS SOME FOG ACRS THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND WILL KEEP THAT IN FCST INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. AWAITING SFC CDFNT FM THE W TO ARRIVE...AND CROSS THE FA (WELL) AFT MDNGT. XPCG CONT RA CHCS ACRS THE FA UNTIL THAT FNT REACHES THE FA. BY 10-12Z/25...SOME CLEARING XPCD FAR WRN PORTIONS. LO TEMPS M40S NW TO THE M/U50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W-SW. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MILD START TO CHRISTMAS MORNING, WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT, BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY WITH SCT CU BY AFTN ON A BREEZY W FLOW. AGAIN, ONLY WEAK CAA WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE U50S TO LOW 60S CHRISTMAS DAY. CLEAR/SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKY/LGT WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS, LIMITED MIXING/LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE L-M 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LEANING TWD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SAT NGT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LO PRES AREA START TO APPROACH FM THE W. THAT LO WILL MOVE ENE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON NGT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE 40-50% POPS ACRS THE AREA SUN THRU MON...DIMINISHING TO 30% THEN 20% FOR MON NGT AND TUE. IF THE LO PRES TRACK IS FARTHER S...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME WINTRY PCPN WITH THE WAVE LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SUN...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MON...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S TUE...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SUN AND MON MORNGS...IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 TUE MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WED MORNG. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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JUST AS THE AREA WAS SEEING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC AND WESTERN VA WAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. YESTERDAYS IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH 10Z-13Z AS THE AREA OF RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL VA AND NC PUSHES THROUGH. DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND RAIN... HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE MOVG EAST INTO WESTERN VA AND NC. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU CENTRL VA AROUND 09Z AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. OVERALL CEILINGS WILL IMRPOVE RAPIDLY FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW PRES OFFSHORE WILL PUSH MOISTURE OUT ALLOWING VFR WX FOR A FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... LEAVING SCA`S INTACT FOR THE CHES BAY/LWR JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SND AND THE CSTL WTRS THRU THU AFTN. STRONG S WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING OVR MOST OF THE WTRS LATE THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WHICH WAS STARTING TO PUSH ACRS THE MTNS TO THE W. THE FRONT WILL SWING ACRS THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNG...THEN QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO SEA DURING THU. S WINDS WILL BECOME SW THEN W DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN TURNING TO THE NW OR N AND DIMINISHING THU EVENG/THU NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO/OVR THE AREA. HI PRES WILL BE RIGHT OVR THE WTRS DURING FRI...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING SAT. LO PRES MOVNG ENE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE WTRS SUN AFTN INTO MON NGT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL DEPARTURES AVERAGING 1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL, AND HV EXCEEDED LOW END MINOR THRESHOLDS IN THE ONGOING AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE AT BISHOPS HEAD. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM AS TIDE CYCLE CONTINUES UNTIL 5-7P AROUND CAMBRIDGE, WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD. WATER LEVELS SHOULD DROP OFF POST FRONTAL FOR AM TIDE CYCLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION/RE-ISSUE OF ADVY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 12/24: RICHMOND.......71 F (1988) NORFOLK........75 F (1891) SALISBURY......67 F (1990) ELIZ CITY NC...75 F (1990) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...TMG/JEF AVIATION...ESS/JAO MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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