Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280543 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY. FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900 MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN... TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S. MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND. OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS IN THE 60S. UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20% FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S. MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN. HIGHS L-M80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS). DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.
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&& .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI. WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...TMG

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