Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161444 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1044 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will settle just off the mid Atlantic coast through Monday. The High will slide south of the area Monday night through Wednesday...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area through mid week.
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Latest analysis depicts ~1026 mb surface high pressure, centered from off the mid-Atlantic coast to central NC. Fog has eroded and skies are now mainly sunny (a few areas to the east of the I-95 corridor and N of I-64 still seeing some low clouds but this is now rapidly dissipating as well. For the rest of today, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming nicely into the lower-mid 70s (possibly upper 70s a few areas W of I-95 depending on degree of aftn mixing). While there should be some Cu development in the aftn across far Se VA/northeast NC, the onshore flow is lighter than yesterday and expect that the cloud cover will be significantly less than yesterday so that even in these areas skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Surface High begins to slide south along the SE coast tonight. Mainly clear sky and light winds will again favor quick drop off of temps just after sunset, and areas of fog late centered along and just inland of the SE coastal zones. Early morning lows average through the 50s to near 60 along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong upper level ridge builds ENE from the western Gulf across the deep south and into the Carolinas for the first half of the week ahead. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds along and just offshore of the SE coast. Resultant return flow/building heights aloft will promote continued warming trend Mon-Wed, with high temperatures running at least 10 degrees above avg. PW values remain AOB 0.75" throughout this period, w/dry and mostly sunny conditions expected to prevail. Highs Monday will avg in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with 80-85 F expected Tue and mid 80s Wed/Thu. Early morning lows Monday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s...and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper high pushes offshore Thursday ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the central US. Dry conditions expected Thursday, resulting in another warm day with highs generally in the mid to upper 70`s. Medium range guidance still struggling with handling the evolution of the central US trough, with the 15/12Z guidance now dropping the trough and a closed low into the deep South into the weekend. Meanwhile, a weakness under the the ridge offshore of the Southeast coast will lift northward Thursday night and Friday. Differences in the trough will have an impact on where the associated surface low lifts. Not buying into the GFS yet due to drastic swings in the placement of the upper low the past few runs. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Friday and await better consensus in future model runs. Highs Friday generally in the upper 60`s to low 70`s under increasing cloudiness. Cold front expected to reach the local area in the Friday night to Saturday time frame. Anomalous upper trough progged to take on a negative tilt Saturday, with an area of low pressure developing along the Southeast coast. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Saturday. Highs in the mid to upper 60`s under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Winds light/variable to nearly calm everywhere through sunrise, with High res and time lagged model data have allowed patchy ground fog/mifg to develop this morning, centered along the coastal plain. Have added tempo mention for LIFR VSBY in fog at SBY/PHF through 13z, with fog likely clearing by 14z. Once fog clears, VFR conds and mostly clear conditions expected today and early tonight. Some more cumulus possible by midday, again mainly toward the coast. OUTLOOK...Dry weather/VFR conditions is expected to persist through Thursday. Only exception will be with patchy fog, which will be possible late tonight and early each morning around sunrise, with the best chances remaining along coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Big Picture... Sfc high pressure will remain over the waters (especially the srn waters) through Tue. Meanwhile, a sfc low pushing through the Upper Great Lakes and across SE Canada Mon night through Tue night will briefly squash the sfc high sewd...allowing a tightening sfc pressure gradient to develop Tue night into Wed morning before weak high pressure rebounds over the srn waters. A more potent upper trough approaches the region from the west late in the week and is expected to swing through the area on Sat. Meanwhile, a possible low pressure approaches well off the Southeast Coast and deepens as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard. At this time, the position of the upper trough should keep the Atlantic low away from the immediate coast. Winds/Seas/Waves... Winds variable 5-10kt today...becoming SW late tonight through Tue aob 15kt. A brief swly surge is possible Tue aftn into Wed morning due to a tightening pressure gradient from a sfc low tracking across SE Canada. Wind speeds will average 10-20kt Ches Bay/all coastal waters...10-15kt Ern VA Rivers/Sound. Winds to remain S-SW and diminish Wed morning through Thu morning to roughly aob 12kt. Winds then become more sely ahead of the approaching upper trough with speeds aob 10kt Thu through Fri. A decent shot of cold air advection associated with the upper trough will allow winds to become NW aob 15kt. Seas average 2-4ft this week...possibly up to 5ft out near 20NM north of Parramore Island during the swly surge Tue night into Wed morning. Waves average 1-2ft on Ches Bay this week...only building up to 3ft in the mouth of the Bay late in the week with the cold air surge. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Equipment issue... Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Estimated return to service is no later than Monday afternoon unless otherwise noted. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA/WRS MARINE...BMD/SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.