Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201807 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/ SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND. DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAS

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