Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 142040 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 440 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLD SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS SETTLED IN OVER CENTRAL VA AND MD WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SC. A FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL MUCH OF CENTRAL VA AND NE NC HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH A WEAK S/W WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND MOVE EAST ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASING TREND AND THE CAA IS WEAKENING. DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NE AND ACROSS MD TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC NC WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN LONGER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE MON LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 INLAND. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER WEEK AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND QPF. WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY TUE AFTN WITH NW FLOW AT 850 MB BY 18Z. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE (45%-55%) AND SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC (40%-50%). LOWERS POPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST (25% TO 35%). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO MID 60S AT THE COAST. POPS DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGH WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WILL LEAN TWD THE 12Z GFS MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM SCNTRL CANADA ESE ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN OFF THE CST FOR WED NGT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPS...AS A PERSISTENT NE FLO DOMINATES. THAT NE FLO WILL BE STRONGER...ESPLY OVR THE WTRS...THU AFTN INTO SAT AFTN. THE HI WILL WEAKEN OVR THE AREA OR MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE DURING SUN. LGT SE OR S FLO WILL DEVELOP OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOTS OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST KRIC SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SCTD TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT AT KECG...SHOULD PERIODICALLY CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. BUT...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
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SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL ZNS FM CHINCOTEAGUE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LGT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENG FOR SEAS. HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS THE NE U.S. AND OFF THE CST TNGT THRU MON. NNE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON AFTN...THEN BECOMES ESE LESS THAN 10 KT BY MON EVENG. TROF OF LO PRES THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW OR N. NNE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED FOR TUE AFTN/TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE OH VLY INTO PA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FM WED THRU AT LEAST FRI. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT...ESPLY WED NGT THRU FRI.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...JAO SHORT TERM...JAO LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...WRS MARINE...TMG

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