Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161137 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 637 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm conditions will prevail into this afternoon ahead of a cold front. That front drops through the local area late today accompanied by showers. Much colder weather for Saturday. High pressure builds across the region on Sunday with seasonable temperatures expected. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Deep layered WSW flow across the region attm...remaining so through this morning. Starting out mainly SKC (only SCT-BKN CI)...conditions will be changing heading into midday/afternoon as a cold front presses SE into the local area. Increasing clouds/becoming mostly cloudy N w/ PoPs rising to 30-50% by 18Z/16 then 60-70% this afternoon. Across the S...mainly sunny this morning...then clouds spread in and PoPs rise to 50-70% (by late afternoon). Not a lot of moisture w/ this front so QPF amounts mainly only from 0.05" to 0.15" (locally higher amounts in any brief heavy SHRAs). Unseasonably warm today...w/ highs from the u60-l70s N (though cooling off this afternoon post cold front) to the m-u70s central and S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Turning much colder tonight and Sat as the front initially shifts winds to the N tonight...w/ the front stalling to our S (by early Sat morning). Latest models continue to have little to no precip prior to 18Z/17 w/ return of moisture delayed from the WSW. Thermal profiles on most models remain just cold/dry enough for possible period of wintry ptype at the start over the Piedmont/far N. Kept PoPs blo 30% over the FA through 18Z/17. Starting the day/in the morning...partly to mostly sunny N and NE...w/ increasing clouds S and SW...then considerable cloudiness all areas in the afternoon. Models showing rising thicknesses as atmosphere moistens through the afternoon. Sfc dew points forecast in the 20s over the NW 1/2 of the FA into early aftn...IP or SN possible...mainly right at the start of the pcpn w/ sfc temps above freezing. No accumulation expected. Elsewhere...RA expected (late on the ern shore). Lows Fri night in the u20s-l30s N to the u30s-l40s S and SE. Highs Sat from the u30s-l40s NNW and central areas to the m-u40s far SE. Mainly RA Sat eve as sfc lo pres exits the coast...then heads out to sea by Sun morning. Will have high PoPs (60-70% W to 70-90% E) Sat eve...decreasing W-E after midnight. Mild wx is expected for Sunday as sfc hi pres builds back into the region. Highs Sun in the m-u50s w/ plenty of sunshine.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended period will consist of above normal temps acrs the area, but there will also be chcs for more rain showers, esply Mon/Mon evening and Wed thru Thu. A warm front will lift into and acrs the region late Sun night thru Mon, bringing a decent chc for showers, esply nrn and wrn counties. Mainly dry wx and warmer temps Tue and into Wed aftn, as sfc high pressure will be anchored well off the Mid Atlc coast, while a frontal boundary slowly approaches fm the WNW. That front will then drop acrs the area later Wed into Thu, bringing another chc for rain showers. Highs will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s Mon, range fm the mid 60s to mid 70s Tue and Wed, and ranging thru the 50s into the lower 60s Thu. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sun night, 50 to 55 Mon night, ranging thru the 50s Tue night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Wed night. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep layered WSW flow over the FA attm...remaining so through this morning. VFR conditions into this afternoon...then w/ a cold front pressing SE into/through the area this afternoon/evening...potential flight restrictions (mainly brief MVFR) and SHRAs will be right w/ and (shortly) behind the front and will likely reach RIC/SBY 15-18Z/16 and around or after 19-22Z/16 for PHF/ORF/ECG. The front stalls over NC Sat morning with moisture returning and rain likely Sat aftn/evening, possibly starting out as a very brief period of -SN/-IP at RIC and/or SBY. There is the potential for IFR cigs late Sat into Sat night. Turning drier w/ VFR conditions Sunday. Another round of SHRAs is possible Mon...w/ sfc hi pres prevailing off the coast by Tue. && .MARINE... A cold front approaches from the west this morning, then drops south across the waters this afternoon/evening. SW winds 10-20 kt this morning will become W 10-15 kt around midday, before becoming NNW and increasing to 10-20 kt tonight. No changes planned for SCA north of Cape Charles with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4-5 ft thru 10am. Winds remain SW 15-20 kt on the Ches Bay during this time also, but have extended end time for the SCA on the Bay until 6-9z Sat to account for the northerly surge expected behind the front this evening into tonight. Waves remain 2-3 ft on the Bay through tonight. Have hoisted an SCA for the southern Coastal waters tonight as NNW winds expected to gust up to 25 kt and cause seas to build to 5 ft. In addition, have added an SCA for the Currituck Sound tonight as winds increase to 15-20 kt for 6 hrs our so. After some lingering 5 ft seas over southern coastal waters Sat morning (SCA thru 15z), sub-SCA conditions expected Sat aftn as high pressure passes N then NE of the area. Developing low pressure will push off the Mid Atlc coast Sat night, with high pressure returning for Sun. Sub-SCA conditions then expected to continue thru at least the middle of next week. && .CLIMATE... Well above normal temperatures Today. Record highs are listed below: Fri 2/16 * RIC: 78 (1976) * ORF: 77 (1990) * SBY: 73 (1976) * ECG: 80 (1945) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.