Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191453 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 953 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the area this afternoon through Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night through midweek. The next cold front crosses the area on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest MSAS has the cold front and assctd pcpn offshore with clear skies over most of the fa except ne NC where sct to bkn clouds continue but will move offshore over the next few hrs. Strong CAA on gusty WNW winds this morning will slowly diminish as the day wears on. Had to adjust high temps toward current values with steady or falling into the upr40s - lwr 50s. PVS DSCN: Sfc high settles over the sern states tonight through Monday, sliding offshore Monday night into Tuesday. look for early morning lows in the mid/upper 20s piedmont to mid 30s far SE zones under a mainly clear sky.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rather benign weather pattern to start the holiday week. Aforementioned high pressure sliding offshore of the southeast coast will maintain dry weather across the Mid-Atlantic and southeast. Model thicknesses recover nicely and should allow for a pair of pleasant late fall days. Highs Mon in the upr 40s to low 50s eastern shore. low to mid 50s west of the bay. Partly to mostly clear Mon night. Not quite as cool as flow turns around to the W-SW, with some increasing mid to high clouds late. Early morning lows in the 30s to near 40 se. Warmer in return flow on Tuesday. Could see a few showers in association with a weak low pressure sliding along the coastal Carolinas, but have kept the daylight hours dry and held to slight/low end chance Tuesday night for now. Highs Tue in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Lows in the 40s to low 50s SE zones. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Model differences make for a challenging mid week and holiday fcst. The next cold front progged to cross the area Tues nite. Challenge comes from just how much moisture gets entrained ahead of the front from a trof off the Carolina coast and weak low progged to move ne along it? GFS much more aggressive with the moisture than the ECMWF. For now, elected to keep measurable rainfall east of I95 Tue nite and Wed with slight chc pops across the east Thurs. Lows Tue nite in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed 55-60. Lows Wed nite in the 30s to lwr 40s se. Cool Thurs with highs mid 40s-lwr 50s. Dry and cool Fri and Sat as high pressure builds into the area. Highs Fri 50-55. Lows mid 30s-lwr 40s. Highs Sat 55-60. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the TAF period, with VFR conditions to prevail through this evening and beyond. W-NW winds will remain gusty out of the W/NW with gusts as high as 30 to 35 knots. Outlook: High pressure builds over the region Sunday evening through Monday, then tracks off the Southeast coast on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected during this time frame. && .MARINE... Forecast well on track with cold front crossing central VA as of 300 AM and then passing through the waters for a few hours around sunrise. Solid SCA conditions (SSW 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt) Bay/Sound/Rivers with low-end gale force gusts over the coastal waters. Seas 5-9ft north of VA Beach; 3-5ft south. Waves 4-5ft. Strong cold air advection, a very tight pressure gradient, and rapid pressure rises (5-9mb) behind the front will all contribute to a quick wind shift to NW 20-30kt with gusts of 25-40kt through today. Windy conditions will be common everywhere (including land areas) and generally uniform with slightly stronger winds occurring over the warmer waters. Winds should remain generally unchanged through late tonight with NW winds averaging 15-25kt/gusts 30kt (30-35kt north of Parramore Island), however seas will gradually subside overnight due to the offshore wind component. Seas 3-5ft all coastal waters tonight. Waves 4ft this evening...subsiding to 3-4ft after midnight. Marine flags remain unchanged and will expire at previously set times. High pressure builds over the Southeast States into the srn Mid Atlantic Region Mon/Mon night...sliding offshore on Tuesday. Adverse boating conditions Monday morning will subside during the day with more benign/quiet sub-SCA conditions anticipated through Tuesday night. Seas 2-4ft north/2-3ft south during this time. Waves generally 1-2ft. Models in fair agreement with developing a low off the Southeast Coast...passing east of Cape Hatteras Wednesday afternoon. Next chance for SCA conditions should be Wednesday. With high pressure passing north of the area, this may be the beginning of an active weather pattern over the waters going into next weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... The fan on the temperature sensor at the Richmond ASOS (KRIC) has likely failed, causing erroneous temperature readings. The contract observer is augmenting the official METAR observations (Hourly METAR and SPECIs). However, the 5-min high resolution data is automated directly from the sensor and is subject to reporting this erroneous data. As such, do not rely on the 5 min temperature data from KRIC until our techs can repair the sensor, likely on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638. Gale Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD

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