Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200759 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE VA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF NOVIA SCOTIA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY. SW FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GENLY ALIGNED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. FOR TODAY...PATTERN CHANGES ONLY SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO SAT...WITH ONSHORE E/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE SW. AGAIN...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DESPITE A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (30% OR LESS). SKIES WILL AVG OUT CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING HRS WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...80-85 F FOR MOST LOCATIONS (UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THE NAM/GFS AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AND WILL CARRY UP TO A 30% POPS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC TSTMS IN THESE AREAS (JUST A SLIGHT CHC/20% FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE). FOR TONIGHT...NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AMPLIFIES FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL GENLY ALLOW THE SFC LOW ACRS THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO SPREAD INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE SE/MID ATLC REGION. SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WHICH COULD KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...SO WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS GENLY IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS NEW ENG THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN RMNS WK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LO LVL FLO CONTS MNLY FM THE OCN. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX THROUGH THE PD...W/ A CONTD/GRADUAL INCRS IN DEWPTS WHILE (DAYTIME) TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO OR BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. BULK OF POPS WILL RMN AOB 30%...AND MNLY FAVOR AREAS INLAND/SRN PORTIONS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S MON...M/U80S TUE. NIGHTTIME LO TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AROUND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WED/THURS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TSTM CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ANY PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREA CLOSET TO THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH THRU NEXT SATURDAY. HIGHS WED/THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OFF THE MID ATLC CST TODAY INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE WASHING OUT. WEAK HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST NE OR E FLO ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES...BUT ISLTD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED FOR NOW. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. INVERTED TROF/SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST TODAY INTO EARLY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NE OR E WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS. WAVES WILL RANGE FM 1 TO 3 FT OVR THE RIVERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND...WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT EARLY TUE...WITH HI PRES BLDNG OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE INTO THU. WINDS WILL TURN FM THE SE TO THE SW DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WTRS FM THE WNW LATE THU/THU NGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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