Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200119 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 919 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... LTST MSAS SHOWING SFC HIGH OVRHD AND WILL CONT TO DRIFT E OVRNIGHT. LTST SAT LOOP SHWNG WDSPRD CI SPILLING OVR THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NW WITH SFC OBS SHWNG WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED SINCE SUNSET. SFC TMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S BUT NOTING DP TMPS HAVE REMAINED STDY OR RISEN A DEGREE OR TWO THIS EVE. LTST MODEL / MOS DATA SPRTS CRNT FCSTD MINS IN THE M-U30S W OF CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER...40-45 AT THE BEACHES. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE MINS REACH THE M30S... GIVEN THE LTST MODEL / MOS DATA...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE LAST SHIFTS THINKING...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. JUST A HWO MENTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF 0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .MARINE... 7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10 PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LKB/LSA

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