Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221829 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 229 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will linger over the Mid Atlantic through Monday. This trough will gradually move offshore Monday night into Tuesday. An upper level ridge will build in from the west by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest upper level analysis features a very familiar omega blocking pattern, characterized by upper level ridging from the Red River Valley into the Western Great Lakes and persistent upper level troughing over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Northern Plains into the Canadian Prairies. At the Surface, sfc low pressure continues to lift offshore of the VA/NC coast this afternoon. Regional radar mosaic showing areas of light rain or drizzle pushing across the area as the upper trough slowly digs se into the local area. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions are bringing another cool day today w/high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s north...mid 60s south...this represents maxima that are -1.5 to -2 st dev. (below normal). Pops remain highest across northern portions of the area over the next few hours. Have upped pops into categorical range for periods of rain through early evening, coincident w/ribbon of low level convergence/weak lift over the VA Northern Neck and Lower MD Eastern Shore this afternoon. Radar has also begun to fill in out in the E VA Piedmont, along another subtle convergence boundary. CAMs continue to show this activity dropping south into NC by early evening. Given this, and that areal coverage with this activity is a bit lower, decided to maintain chc wording here through the early evening. The upper trough closes off tonight as it settles over SE VA and Eastern NC tonight into Monday morning, with h5 heights remaining on the order of ~-2 st dev. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions continue overnight. Likely pops (rain/drizzle) edge s along and south-southeast of I-95 and I-64 tonight as the best area of lift gradually pinwheels southeast over the area overnight into Monday morning from central/e-central VA south into southeast VA. Continued mostly cloudy to overcast with early morning lows Monday mainly in the low/mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Upper level low will continue to slowly wobble off of the mid- atlantic coast through the day, eventually sliding offshore by monday night. This will produce more in the way of sct to numerous showers on Monday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Showalter index numbers/LI values remain modestly/minimally unstable. Nevertheless, have maintained a slight chc for thunder inland as the upper cold pool pushes across. Temps once again a touch below normal. Look for Monday maxima to top out in the upper 60s/around 70 inland, with lower to middle 60s along the southeast coast and immediate coastal locations. Evening stabilization should allow for partial clearing inland, with any areas of showers to diminish quickly after sunset into Monday night, though pops linger a bit later into the night over the Eastern Shore. Pops drop off even further after midnight as the upper low continues to push farther off toward the New England coast into Tuesday morning. Remaining mild with early morning lows Tuesday morning in the lower-middle 50s, under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The Tuesday/Wednesday time frame will be characterized by gradually improving conditions across the region behind the departing upper low, as high pressure at the surface and aloft slowly builds across the region in its wake for the mid week period and beyond. While a gradually clearing sky/dry wx is anticipated inland (actually mostly sunny by afternoon in the piedmont), mostly cloudy conditions and some slight to low end chance pops continue along eastern third of the area. This is in association with one last upper disturbance rotating through behind the upper trough. Again, while surface-based instability looks to be minimal, Showalter numbers indicate some modest, mainly elevated, instability. Will therefore continue with thunder mention. Warmer on tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 coastal locations, low to mid 70s along the coast and mid 70s to near 80 degrees inland. Moderating/warming temperatures continues on Wednesday, as 1024+mb surface high pressure slides offshore, as upper ridging build east. Deep layered W-SW flow will bring increasing temps and moisture across the region, though with PW values on the order of 0.50 to 0.75", and with models continuing to trend down with modeled rain chances, will keep pops out for Wednesday. For the first time in a couple of weeks, temps trend back up above climo area-wide on Wednesday, with forecast maxima in the upper 70s to low 80s over coastal sections along the Eastern Shore, low to mid 80s southeast VA/NE NC coast, and mid to upper 80s inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Sfc high pressure settles off the Southeast Coast as upper level ridging resides directly over the entire East Coast Tue night through Thu. Developing sw flow Thu night/Fri will likely open the door for increasing humidity and rain/thunderstorm chances Thu/Fri aftns as conditions become increasingly unstable. Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Wed-Fri. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal Wed/Thu night. Seasonal lows Tue night in the mid 50s nw to lower 60s se. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A moist and unsettled pattern will persist thru Monday, as an upr low drops southward into/ovr the fcst area. This feature will maintain MVFR/IFR conditions across the region. Most TAF sites have become MVFR as of 17Z, and expect MVFR to dominate through 00Z. Exception will be KSBY, where IFR will prevail. Scattered showers becoming more widespread during the last hour, and these will affect all terminals but KECG, which looks to remain dry through much of the 18Z TAF period. Latest METARs suggest ceilings will remain MVFR in showers, so have limited amount of IFR through 00Z. Expect IFR to dominate after 00Z, as cool/moist flow around upr low persists. In addition, rain likely to become more widespread, and have accounted for that in TAFs. Upr trof begins crossing region Monday, with dry air in low/mid levels trying to filter into the region as the day wears on. This should allow for ceilings to become MVFR everywhere, with some VFR possible toward the end of the TAF period. The upr low and associated trof will finally slide ene of the region Tue aftn, with slowly improving flying conditions. OUTLOOK...High pressure surface and aloft builds over the Mid Atlc States with mainly dry weather Tue aftn thru Fri. && .MARINE... Update...slight adjustments made to ongoing SCA flags for coastal waters. Combined zone 654 with nrn waters which will end at 100 am Mon night and ended SCA flags for srn waters at 800 pm Mon evening as seas drop below 5 ft. Also added Ches Bay and Currituck Sound back into the mix with SCA winds 15-20kt beginning early Mon morning. Expect gusts around 25kt over coastal waters and the mouth of Ches Bay Mon morning. Please see updated Marine Weather Message (WBCMWWAKQ) for further details. Previous discussion... Early this morng, sfc low pressure was well off the NJ cst and will continue to track ne into the nrn Atlc today. Then at the same time and thru Mon morng, upr air low pressure will drop down into/ovr the area to just offshr. The upr low and associated trof will finally slide ene of the area Tue aftn. This will result in northerly winds continuing ovr the wtrs thru Mon with the strongest winds occurring ovr Ches Bay, Currituck Snd, and the Cstl wtrs. Seas will stay up between 4 and 7 feet today into Mon ngt so will have SCA for all the Cstl wtrs. Conditions quiet down Tue thru Thu as high pressure at the sfc and aloft build over the region. Generally w or sw winds around 10 kt or less should be anticipated. Seas average 2-3 ft Tue aftn thru Thu. Waves average 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG/WRS MARINE...BMD/TMG

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