Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 152023 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 423 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and an associated weak frontal boundary will slowly drop south into North Carolina later tonight into Wednesday. High pressure over the Great Lakes builds into the northeast and mid Atlantic region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. The high slides off the coast Thursday afternoon as the next low pressure systems moves through Ontario. A cold front affects the local area Friday afternoon into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Latest sfc analysis shows a sfc trough of low pressure over eastern/SE Va with the frontal bndry now rather diffuse over northern portions of the CWA. Hurricane Gert remains spinning well off the Carolina coast. Aloft, WSW flow prevails with an elongated shortwave stretching all the back into TN. Heavy rain from numerous tstms remains the primary concern through this evening, with precipitable water values in excess of 2" and some training/slow moving storms. Appears that the bulk of the significant heavy rain into early evening will reside over SE/eastern VA and NE NC, though brief heavy rain and localized flooding will be possible elsewhere as well. Have continued mention of a few stronger storms for wind and for localized flooding in the HWO. As the sfc boundary slowly sags S later this evening, instability will begin to wane and PoPs drop off accordingly. After likely PoPs most areas through 00Z, will begin to see most areas other than far Se VA/NE NC dry out, with even the SE generally becoming dry by midnight or a little after. Still warm/humid tonight, but somewhat cooler air filters in from the N late. Lows range from the upper 60s NW to the mid 70s SE. Have mentioned patchy fog after 06Z over much of the interior due to today`s rain and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... For Wed, chances of rain will be much lower, though will maintain 20-30% PoPs far S (mainly from the VA/NC border S) on Wed as the frontal boundary lingers not too far S and weak high pressure builds in from the N. Partly sunny Wed w/ highs upper 80s/around 90F inland...80-85F near the coast. Dry Thu with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then just a 20-30% chance for mainly aftn tstms. Highest PoPs west of I-95 across the Piedmont for any storms developing along the mtns that would drift east late in the aftn. Otherwise partly- mostly sunny with highs upper 80s/around 90F. Next front approaches from the W Fri as low pressure spins over the nrn Great Lakes. Some increase in moisture may allow for a low chc PoP Fri morning, but the greater chances will be in the aftn and beyond. Highs Fri upper 80s to lower 90s with higher humidity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A frontal boundary will slowly drop acrs the region Fri night into early Mon morning. Will maintain 30-40% Pops for most of the area fm Fri night thru Sun, and 15-30% Pops for Sun night. At this time, will go with a mainly dry fcst for Mon thru Tue, as sfc high pressure builds into the area then off the coast. Highs will mainly range fm the mid 80s to arnd 90 thru the period. Lows will range fm the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep tropical moisture in place ahead of the approaching cold front. Combo of the moisture and daytime heating is sparking numerous shwrs/tstms with IFR/MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys in heavy downpours. This scenario to continue through 00Z. First at RIC/SBY where tempos have been used. Convection progged a few hours later across sern TAF sites but can expect pop up convection just about at any time. Front crosses region ending the convection tonight. In its wake, abundant moisture will probably end up with a stratus deck rather than IFR VSBYS some of the high res data indicates. Thus, have trended the forecasts with more ST than FG. Winds shift to the N-NE with a slow decrease in cloudiness by the end of the forecast period. Outlook: Conditions are expected to improve later Thursday as high pressure builds back into the region. A cold front approaches the region Friday bringing another chance for showers / thunderstorms into the weekend. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, Hurricance Gert was located well off the NC coast and tracking NNE at around 10 mph. Also, a frontal boundary was laying acrs the area fm west to east. Winds were generally SE 5 to 15 kt outside of any stronger gusts fm tstms. Seas will build fm 3 to 4 ft to as high as 5 to 7 ft tonight into early Wed morning, due to increasing long period (SE) swells fm Gert. Otherwise, Gert will move well out into the Atlc late tonight into Wed night, with sfc high pressure building fm the ern Great Lakes twd New England. The high will slide off the coast Thu aftn into Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 kt or less thru Thu, then generally 10 to 15 kt over the area on Fri. Given sharp increase in long period swell (10-12 seconds, will have High Rip risk over southern beaches today...and Moderate Rip across the north. Will have at least Moderate Risk on Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG

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