Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240530 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1230 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE. 23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
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&& .MARINE... HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST. && .CLIMATE... UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RIC 76 1979 ORF 78 1983 SBY 78 1931 ECG 77 1983 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG/JEF AVIATION...MAS/JEF MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...

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