Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 150602
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
202 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm weather continues into Friday before a cold
front arrives later in the day. Scattered showers and even an
isolated thunderstorm are expected Friday afternoon into the early
overnight hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still
above-normal for the weekend with dry conditions. A secondary cold
front will push through Sunday night bringing in cooler air for the
start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday...
Upper level ridging remains over the Mid-Atlantic region this
evening, with a surface high pressure off the Southeast coast.
Cirrus gradually moves into the area from the W overnight due
to convection W of the mountains. Temps as of 1000 PM ranged
from the upper 50s (where winds diminished) to the mid 60s. SW
winds remain 5-10 mph tonight which, combined with SCT cloud
cover late, should keep temps up overnight with lows in the
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
The cold front will approach the state from the west on Friday.
Dewpoints will rise into the mid to upper 50s with PWAT values
increasing to ~1.25", which isn`t overly impressive, but enough to
bring us some rain showers. Expect rain chances to increase around
mid-day, with the best chances coming in the mid/late afternoon and
into the evening hours. There will be a bit of instability present,
so a few rumbles of thunder will be possible in these showers. SPC
does have us outlooked in a general thunder risk. Rainfall totals
won`t amount to much as this is not looking like a wash out in any
sense of the word. Models are generally showing a few hundredths to
a tenth or two of an inch across a majority of the area. There
may be localized higher amounts if any shower does show
convective features. The front will push through from west to
east after 00Z/8pm; there could be another area of showers that
form along or just ahead of the front.
Rain chances end overnight Friday into early Saturday. Slightly
drier air will filter in giving way to benign conditions.
Temperatures will still be above-normal but not quite as warm as
we`ve been seeing lately. Expect highs this weekend to be in the
upper 60s to around 70 inland with low to mid 60s along the coast. A
second cold front will move through later Sunday. Cloud cover will
increase throughout the day ahead of it. The front looks to be
mainly dry, though there may be some showers along of just off the
coast overnight into early Monday as a weak shortwave also moves
offshore to our south. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the
boundary, so low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s
to the west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
An area of low pressure moves into Quebec later Sunday into Monday
with a weak shortwave forming along the broad troughiness well back
to the west/southwest. There may be a shower or two across the
southeast Monday afternoon as this shortwave slides through.
Additionally, cooler air will arrive behind the front, so high
temperatures on Monday will be closer to normal, topping out in the
mid to upper 50s for most locations. Tuesday looks to be the coolest
day of the period as northwest flow increases on the backside of the
trough. Surface high pressure will also build into the region. Winds
will become breezy on Tuesday, with highs only getting into the
upper 40s across the north/Eastern Shore and in the lower 50s
elsewhere. Overnight temps Monday night and Tuesday night will be
chilly, dipping down into the upper 20s across the west Monday
night, and around freezing for everyone else. Temperatures will
gradually warm back up by mid-week along zonal flow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 06z/15 TAF
period. SCT-BKN high clouds from the convection over the
northern mid-Atlantic into the eastern TN Vly will spread SE
later this morning into the afternoon, becoming more widespread
into tonight with BKN/OVC conditions (mainly VFR CIGs). Have
allowed for some LLWS at northern terminals as a SW LLJ
develops over the area. A weakening cold front will approach
the region from the NW later today into tonight. Rain showers
become more widespread along and especially behind the frontal
passage this evening, tapering off into Sat morning. Widespread
MVFR and short-lived IFR CIGs are possible during this same
period Fri night along and just behind the frontal passage. SW
winds 5-10 kt early this morning increases to 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) by midday through this
afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 kt in the evening before becoming
N overnight behind the cold front.
Outlook: Mainly dry with VFR conditions Saturday through
Monday. A few passing showers are possible over SE terminals
(ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front crossing the
region Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
Sfc high pressure was centered along the SE CONUS coast this
afternoon, ridging NNE toward the local waters. Winds were light
with 1 ft waves and 1-2 ft seas.
Benign, sub-SCA conditions will prevail through this evening, as
high pressure will eventually slide well off the SE coast. S-SW
winds will increase to 15-17 kt by late tonight as the high slides
offshore. Will likely see gusts to 20 kt for a few hours late
tonight on the bay (especially N of New Pt Comfort), but will hold
off on SCAs attm. Winds over the open water decrease by a few knots
on Fri but it will become a bit gusty on the Rivers, Currituck
Sound, and near the land/water interface on the south/west side of
the bay during the aftn (when mixing over land is maximized). A few
gusts to 20 kt are likely during the aftn-early evening in these
areas.
Winds become W then NW or N Fri night into Sat morning, with the
frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few
knots below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a
brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 4-10 AM Sat on the bay. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected Sat aftn through the rest of the weekend.
Widespread SCAs are likely late Mon-Tue in the wake of a much
stronger cold FROPA.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP/RMM
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...MAM/RMM
MARINE...ERI/TMG