Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242202 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 602 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions return this evening through Thursday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Conditions improve on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... FA remains stuck under in-situ wedge attm this afternoon...w/ w/ widespread lo clouds/cigs...onshore winds and temps mainly in the l-m60s. Near term models continue to show that the wedge hangs on over most of the FA through through 23Z/24-04Z/25...then there is a surge northward of instability...mainly on the coastal plain up into the eastern shore thereafter. Increasing vertical ascent as upper level trough approaches from the WSW combined w/ the surge of lower level moisture/instability (as low level jet strengthens) will result in the development of widespread SHRAS and at least ISOLD-SCT tstms over the FA. Will be mentioning locally heavy rainfall...as QPF averages 0.50-1.00" (higher amounts possible). The low level wedge likely hangs on over the (far) interior locations...w/ temperatures not rising much above the m60s before tailing off late. To the E...expecting temps and dewpoints to rise through the 60s even l-m70s (far SE VA-NE NC) as sfc warm front pulls N. SPC continues to highlight areas near-S of the VA-NC border SLGT risk severe...will maintain heightened mention in the HWO for now. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper low begins to lift NE across the mountains Thursday. A strong shortwave trough will lift across the mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/early evening. Once again PoPs increase...to ~60-70% from the Piedmont to central VA to the MD Ern Shore, with 40-50% far SE. 500mb flow of 45-55 kt is expected along with modest instability. Therefore...a few stronger to marginally severe storms are possible. The main threat would be wind and hail as low-level shear is minimal but a decent cold pool aloft will exist. Additional QPF Thu aftn/evening should average up to ~0.25" with locally higher amounts possible. Highs Thu in the m70s W of I 95 to the l80s across eastern portions of the FA. The upper low continues to lift NE across PA/NY/New England late Thu night into Fri. Drier conditions finally arrive as deep layered WNW flow develops over the region. Some lingering mid-level energy could result in SCT-BKN CU mid/afternoon Fri. Otherwise...drier and breezy with highs in the u70s to l80s, after morning lows in the m50s W to l60s at the coast. Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW Fri night into Sat. Differing potential/timing in arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft may result in at least SCT convective development. Otherwise...partly cloudy Fri night-Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon. Lows from the u50s NW to the l60s SE. Highs Sat from the m70s- around 80F on the eastern shore to the m80s inland. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term period starts off Sat night into Sun with a warm front in the vicinity and plenty of energy passing through the WNW flow aloft. This will lead to a chance of shras/tstms everywhere, with low temps in the 60s Sat night and high temps in the low/mid 80s Sun. Continued chance of rain into Mon with a weak cold front passing through the area. Highs again in the low/mid 80s. Drier weather into Tue and Wed behind the front, but still cannot rule out the chance of a shra or tstm with continued cyclonic flow aloft. High temps in the upr 70s to mid 80s both days. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly lo end MVFR cigs into early this evening as winds remain generally E aob 15 kt. Increasing coverage of SHRAS w/ ISOLD- SCT tstms after 22Z/24-02Z/25 until Thu morning...w/ periods of IFR CIGS/VSBYs possible...esp in heavy RA. Additional SCT SHRAS/tstms possible again Thu afternoon/evening. Drier/VFR wx returns by Fri as weak high pressure builds over the region. Unsettled conditions return for the weekend when another frontal boundary affects the Mid Atlantic States. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows a low pres system centered over the OH Valley with a warm front stretching across the VA-NC border. The front slides north tonight, and with an increasing pres gradient, expect SCA winds to commence over the Bay late. Also expect seas to build up to 5 ft out 20 nm late. For Thu, a weak cold front crosses the area, and SW flow may come close to SCA thresholds over the Bay. Decided to just continue the headlines there through Thu night since winds may ramp up again then. Also, seas may continue to meander around 5 ft out 20 nm. Will end headlines at the end of the third period attm. Lwr James and Currituck Sound may potentially need to be added to the SCA Thu/Thu night as well. Weak high pres then builds in for Fri leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca conditions expected to continue into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A period of onshore flow and high astro tides (moving toward a new moon) will result in elevated water levels through Friday. Issued several coastal flood advisories and statements for tonight`s high tide cycle...refer to CFWAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024- 025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. NC...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ525. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099- 100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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