Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260538 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday. Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows 60-65. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s (skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer, in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s. Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid- upper 80s N to the lower 80s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas during the weekend. Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...vfr conds through 06z taf pd. Few-Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10 kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.
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&& .MARINE... Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15 kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10- 15 kt Sun/Mon. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) * 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites: (Avg Date / Last Yr): * RIC: May 13 / May 12 * ORF: May 17 / May 12 * SBY: May 27 / Jun 1 && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday. New parts are on order. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM AVIATION...ALB/LSA MARINE...JDM CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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