Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201907 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 307 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will lift north across the area tonight. A stronger cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Sunday night...with high pressure building in for much of the upcoming week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Typical mid August wx across the fa this afternoon. SCT-BKN CU...light SE winds...dewpoints from the m60s-l70s and temps in the m-u80s. Isolated-SCT shras found near far SW portion of FA attm. Remnant sfc boundary just S and SW of the FA will be lifting slowly NNE through the night. Keeping low chc POPs in for far srn-wrn areas in FA into the overnight hours...otherwise partly cloudy. Keeping very low POPS for late tonight as boundary lifts NNE into the region. Also...will be adding patchy fog away from the immediate coast after midnight due to high sfc moisture and light SSE winds. Lows 70-75F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The remnant/weak boundary will continue to lift NNE through the area Sun morning. At the same time...a trough digs into the Great Lakes/OH valley...a stronger cold front pushes to the mountains. The more significant cold front will approach from the NW Sun aftn as the upper trough continues to sharpen across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. POPs of 40-60% (shras/tstms) have been maintained across the area for mid-late Sun afternoon (highest inland across VA). Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy Sun w/ highs in the u80s to l90s. The cold front will push off the coast Sun night...w/ any lingering shras/tstms (mainly E of I 95) quickly pushing off the coast during the late evening hours. Sfc hi pres builds into the region late Sun night into Mon bringing drier and much more comfortable wx. Lows Sun night range from the l-m60s nw to the l70s se. Mostly sunny Mon...a bit breezy near the coast into the afternoon...w/ highs in the m80s. Sfc hi pres settles over the fa Mon night through Tue providing continued dry and pleasant wx. Winds turn more NE during the day. Lows Mon night in the u50s-l60s inland to the m-u60s at the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure/fair weather prevails over the local area Tuesday and Wednesday. 850 temps begin to moderate, warming to 14 to 16C. Highs both days generally in the mid 80`s (cooler along the coast). Coolest night expected Tuesday night as temperatures inland are forecast to drop into the 50`s in rural areas. Low to mid 60`s near the coast. Upper/surface high pressure locates over the western Atlantic Thursday as the next northern stream trough digs over the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley Thursday/Thursday night. Dry for the local area again Thursday with highs warming back into the mid to upper 80`s. The front drops into the Mid Atlantic region Friday, but not before temperatures warm back into the upper 80`s to low 90`s. Will carry only a slight chance POP for the far northwest Piedmont. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon...as weak high pressure gradually moves offshore this afternoon and evening. Diffuse frontal boundary is hard to find in the observations, although some indication a weak boundary remains over NC. This boundary should lift north of the area tonight ahead of a stronger cold front approaching the area from the west. Does not appear to be enough gradient overnight to prohibit fog formation in generally the same areas as last night (e.g. KSBY, KRIC, KPHF and KECG). May be a little more fog tonight with surface dew points on the increase. Aforementioned cold front pushes through the area Sunday afternoon/night bringing a better chc of afternoon/early evening showers/tstms. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions likely with showers/tstms, most of which will occur after the 18Z TAF period. Much drier air arrives behind the cold front Monday and continues through Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region. && .MARINE... Light westerly winds observed over the marine area early this morning as a weak/diffuse frontal boundary remains over the region. By mid-morning...flow becomes onshore (east to southeast) and increases to around 10 knots. Waves/seas generally 1-2 feet. Flow becomes southerly 10-15 knots tonight and Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front pushes across the waters Sunday night. Combination of low level cold air advection and warm waters will likely result in a period of SCA conditions late Sunday night. Northwest winds are forecast to become 15 to 20 knots into early Monday morning. Waves may briefly build to 3-4 feet in the lower Bay with seas as high as 5 feet in the northern waters. SCA conditions will be short lived as northerly winds diminish to 10-15 knots Monday. Waves 2-3 feet and seas 3-4 feet. High pressure builds over the region Monday night, remaining over the waters through late in the week. Flow becomes onshore, but light at or below 10 knots. The next front approaches the region Friday. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of service through the weekend. The replacement part will arrive on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/WRS MARINE...SAM EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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