Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 150023
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
723 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary...resulting
in periods of unsettled weather through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current analysis indicates ~1035 mb sfc high pressure centered
from southeastern New England to the Delmarva and eastern NC.
Weak sfc low pressure is situated across WV/western MD and flow
aloft is from the WNW. Most of the precip has ended for the
time being and temperatures have rebounded a few degrees, with
readings mainly in the 40s (some upper 30s remain over the NE).
May even see some breaks of sun over south central VA through
sunset as low level flow has turned to the S and some partial
clearing moves in per latest satellite imagery. This will be
short-lived however, as the sfc low across WV/MD pushes ESE
later in the evening as a weak shortwave aloft passes through
the CWA. Not much deep moisture associated with this, but enough
lift will prevail for a few hrs worth of likely POPS/60-70%
across the NE portions of the CWA, with 30-40% over much of
central and southeast VA (only a ~20% for south central VA and
interior northeast NC too far to the south of the track of the
shortwave). QPF amounts will be light and avg 0.10" or less (all
rain as P-type). Temperatures will be slow to fall until after
06Z, with lows then falling to the low- mid 30s N to around 40
F far S. Not a concern for mixed precip even as temperatures
over the N may fall to 32 F or colder by sunrise since the
precip should be ending by 06Z or shortly thereafter. Could see
some fog develop overnight but not real confident given the
cloud cover so have left it out of the forecast for now.
The latest GFS/NAM model data suggests a bit more of a push
with the shortwave tonight into Sunday, enabling sfc high
pressure over the Great Lakes to move SE into the mid-Atlc
region by midday. Thus, have gone a little more optimistic for
the day, with cloudy skies early on turning partly sunny for
most of the CWA. In general, the far W/SW zones would have the
highest chance for remaining mostly cloudy, while the NE should
become at least partly sunny if not mostly sunny. Raised high
temperatures a few degrees given a little more mixing and
sunshine (though stayed a few degrees below latest MAV/MET
numerical guidance). Expecting highs from the mid 40s to around
50 F most areas (with lower 50s possible if skies clear out even
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models begin to spread moisture back NNE into the region Sun
night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof
TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA)
will remain weak. Thus...will have 30-40% PoPs across the
piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon.
Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over the E/NE so
some lows in the upper 20s will be possible from the nrn Neck to
the eastern shore...with lows in the lower-mid 30s elsewhere.
Thicknesses are too warm where they may be precip so just rain
as P-type with temperatures above 32 F. Cloudy with CAD setup
(but little chc for precip on Mon. Highs Mon in the low 40s NW
to around 50F far SE. Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the
wrn Great Lakes on Tue, lifting a warm front N of the local
area. Still uncertain on how much (if any) sun develops so
while temps moderate, highs may not get out of the 50s (will
have lower 60s SE for now).
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended
period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for
showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat.
Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the
upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure is centered off the New England coast as of 00z,
with a surface ridge axis extending to the SW into the Mid-
Atlantic region. A stationary front is situated across SC, with
weak low pressure off the Outer Banks. Aloft, shortwave energy
is moving across the central Appalachians and Nrn Mid-Atlantic
producing areas of -ra. Cigs as of 00z are generally 1-2kft,
with a 600ft layer at SBY. The best likelihood for -ra is at SBY
and RIC through the early overnight hours, with a chc of -ra at
PHF/ORF, and slight chc at ECG. Cigs are expected to lower
through the evening with IFR expected to prevail through Sunday
morning. Vsby is generally expected to remain aoa 4sm. Cigs are
expected to lift n-s Sunday morning with some clearing expected
by aftn. Surface high pressure will remain over the region
Sunday night into Monday, although mid and high clouds are
expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes through the
area later Monday night and lifts N of the region Tuesday. This
could produce some MVFR cigs late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. A cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday night and
crosses the area Wednesday. This will bring a chc of rain along
with degraded flight conditions. High pressure is expected to
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SCA will remain in effect for the srn two coastal zns (656/658)
until 7 pm this evening, due to seas near 5 ft. Otherwise, a
weak northerly surge is expected late tngt into early Sun aftn
morning, as sfc high pressure builds fm the midwest into the
lower Great Lakes. But, winds are expected to stay just below
SCA criteria. A warm front will lift north through the area
during Tue, with winds becoming SSW ahead of the next cold
front which crosses the region Tue night into Wed.
-- Changed Discussion --MD...None.
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