Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211057 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 657 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered northwest of the area through the weekend while Tropical Storm Jose will linger south of the New England Coast. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure building northwest of the region. Some patchy fog will remain possible across portions of the Piedmont and NE NC through early this morning before quickly dissipating after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures (around 6-8 degrees above normal for late September) are expected again this afternoon with highs ranging from the low 80s near the coast to the upper 80s further inland. A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible across NE NC this afternoon, but am expecting the majority of any precipitation to stay well south of the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure building northwest of the region. Some patchy fog will remain possible across portions of the Piedmont and NE NC through early this morning before quickly dissipating after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures (around 6-8 degrees above normal for late September) are expected again this afternoon with highs ranging from the low 80s near the coast to the upper 80s further inland. A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible across NE NC this afternoon, but am expecting the majority of any precipitation to stay well south of the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon while a much weakened/remnant circulation (of Jose) slowly tracks wwd toward the nrn mid- Atlantic coast (12Z/20 GFS more aggressive in that scenario than the 12Z/20 ECMWF). Regardless...expecting some increase in clouds and will carry minimal PoPs by Mon...esp near the coast as winds turn (a little) more onshore. Lows Sat night in the l-m60s...except u60s at the coast. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs Sun/Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the coast...m80s inland. Wx conditions Tue-Wed will depend on track of Tropical Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to the E would result in drier wx. For now...generally taking the middle of the road/blend of all guidance meaning...VRB clouds/20-40% PoPs (highest E) Mon night-Tue night. Monitor forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Generally VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure influences our weather pattern. Any current patchy fog quickly dissipates this morning. Winds will be out of the NNE this afternoon mainly 5 to 10 knots. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend period as high pressure builds into the region.
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&& .MARINE... Tropical Storm Jose is located SE of Cape Cod early this morning and is forecast to slowly back to the WSW today through Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located N of the Dominican Republic early this morning and is forecast to track to the NNW through Saturday and then NNE through Monday about equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda. Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 3-5ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall below 5ft today. However, the SCA for hazardous seas will continue, and has been extended to 10z Saturday as seas are forecast to rebuild to 4-5ft later tonight into Friday. Seas are expected to remain elevated, generally 4-6ft into the weekend as swell arrives from Maria. SCAs for seas will likely be needed through the weekend. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps Maria offshore during the early to middle portions of next week. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria. A further increase in seas is expected Monday through Wednesday along with an increasing northerly wind Tuesday-Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures are averaging ~1.5ft above normal in the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers early this morning, with 1.0-1.5ft above normal for the ocean and mouth of the Bay. Most locations in the Bay and tidal rivers are likely to reach or exceed minor flood thresholds during the next high tide today, with Bishops Head potentially approaching moderate this afternoon. Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended to cover the next high tide cycle. For the ocean-side and mouth of the Bay, Ocean City is expected to touch minor flooding this morning, with other locations along the coast falling a few tenths short of minor flooding. Note, the primary coastal flooding threat the the VA Ern Shore is on the Bay-side. Additional minor flooding is possible over the next few days as tidal anomalies remain above normal due to the presence of energetic swell from tropical storm Jose and eventually hurricane Maria this weekend. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ089-090-099. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ093-095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077-078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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