Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150023 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 723 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary...resulting in periods of unsettled weather through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Current analysis indicates ~1035 mb sfc high pressure centered from southeastern New England to the Delmarva and eastern NC. Weak sfc low pressure is situated across WV/western MD and flow aloft is from the WNW. Most of the precip has ended for the time being and temperatures have rebounded a few degrees, with readings mainly in the 40s (some upper 30s remain over the NE). May even see some breaks of sun over south central VA through sunset as low level flow has turned to the S and some partial clearing moves in per latest satellite imagery. This will be short-lived however, as the sfc low across WV/MD pushes ESE later in the evening as a weak shortwave aloft passes through the CWA. Not much deep moisture associated with this, but enough lift will prevail for a few hrs worth of likely POPS/60-70% across the NE portions of the CWA, with 30-40% over much of central and southeast VA (only a ~20% for south central VA and interior northeast NC too far to the south of the track of the shortwave). QPF amounts will be light and avg 0.10" or less (all rain as P-type). Temperatures will be slow to fall until after 06Z, with lows then falling to the low- mid 30s N to around 40 F far S. Not a concern for mixed precip even as temperatures over the N may fall to 32 F or colder by sunrise since the precip should be ending by 06Z or shortly thereafter. Could see some fog develop overnight but not real confident given the cloud cover so have left it out of the forecast for now. The latest GFS/NAM model data suggests a bit more of a push with the shortwave tonight into Sunday, enabling sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes to move SE into the mid-Atlc region by midday. Thus, have gone a little more optimistic for the day, with cloudy skies early on turning partly sunny for most of the CWA. In general, the far W/SW zones would have the highest chance for remaining mostly cloudy, while the NE should become at least partly sunny if not mostly sunny. Raised high temperatures a few degrees given a little more mixing and sunshine (though stayed a few degrees below latest MAV/MET numerical guidance). Expecting highs from the mid 40s to around 50 F most areas (with lower 50s possible if skies clear out even more). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models begin to spread moisture back NNE into the region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 30-40% PoPs across the piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon. Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over the E/NE so some lows in the upper 20s will be possible from the nrn Neck to the eastern shore...with lows in the lower-mid 30s elsewhere. Thicknesses are too warm where they may be precip so just rain as P-type with temperatures above 32 F. Cloudy with CAD setup (but little chc for precip on Mon. Highs Mon in the low 40s NW to around 50F far SE. Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the wrn Great Lakes on Tue, lifting a warm front N of the local area. Still uncertain on how much (if any) sun develops so while temps moderate, highs may not get out of the 50s (will have lower 60s SE for now). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat. Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure is centered off the New England coast as of 00z, with a surface ridge axis extending to the SW into the Mid- Atlantic region. A stationary front is situated across SC, with weak low pressure off the Outer Banks. Aloft, shortwave energy is moving across the central Appalachians and Nrn Mid-Atlantic producing areas of -ra. Cigs as of 00z are generally 1-2kft, with a 600ft layer at SBY. The best likelihood for -ra is at SBY and RIC through the early overnight hours, with a chc of -ra at PHF/ORF, and slight chc at ECG. Cigs are expected to lower through the evening with IFR expected to prevail through Sunday morning. Vsby is generally expected to remain aoa 4sm. Cigs are expected to lift n-s Sunday morning with some clearing expected by aftn. Surface high pressure will remain over the region Sunday night into Monday, although mid and high clouds are expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes through the area later Monday night and lifts N of the region Tuesday. This could produce some MVFR cigs late Monday night into Tuesday morning. A cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday night and crosses the area Wednesday. This will bring a chc of rain along with degraded flight conditions. High pressure is expected to return Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... SCA will remain in effect for the srn two coastal zns (656/658) until 7 pm this evening, due to seas near 5 ft. Otherwise, a weak northerly surge is expected late tngt into early Sun aftn morning, as sfc high pressure builds fm the midwest into the lower Great Lakes. But, winds are expected to stay just below SCA criteria. A warm front will lift north through the area during Tue, with winds becoming SSW ahead of the next cold front which crosses the region Tue night into Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG

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