Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151133 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 633 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered over New England through today. A weak cold front will drop across the region late Wednesday night, followed by high pressure returning Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front will affect the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak sfc hi pres remains centered invof New England attm...while ridging SW into central VA and the central-wrn Carolinas. Meanwhile...a cold front was found from the upper Midwest to the TX panhandle. For today...the weak sfc hi pres will maintain weak in-situ CAD over the local area while a weak trough/low develops just E of the VA capes (and extends back toward the immediate coast by this afternoon). ST presently covers most of the coastal areas attm...expecting that moisture to spread W today...covering most of the local area by this afternoon. Will include PoPs 15-20% right at the coast (this afternoon). Additionally...NNE winds remain gusty at the coast until later today. Highs from the u40s-l50s inland to the m-u50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The high slides retreats NE to E of New England tonight as low pres swings through the upper Great Lakes. A cold front approaches from the NW and drops across the region very late tonight-early Thu. That front will be moisture starved...so will carry just a 10-20% PoP most areas even with skies becoming cloudy to mostly cloudy. Will have a narrow zone of 30-40% PoPs near the Ches Bay to over the MD eastern shore where a little more moisture pooling is depicted by the model consensus aided by slow departure to weak coastal trough/low. Lows tonight will mainly range from the u30s- m40s. Warmer and becoming mostly sunny Thu with WNW winds becoming gusty. Highs Thu in the l60s N and NE to the m-u60s central/S. Mostly clear and colder again Thu night as sfc high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. Lows 30-35F inland and on the lower MD ern shore to the l-m40s in SE VA-NE NC. Mostly sunny Fri w/ highs mainly 50-55F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A potent frontal system will develop west of the region Fri night and approach the area late Sat. There are still a few timing differences between the models (GFS a tad bit faster than the ECMWF)...but they have come into better agreement over the past couple of runs. The best chance for rain appears to be Sat evening through early Sun. The front quickly exits the region by Sunday afternoon. Warm and breezy conditions are expected ahead of the front with highs Sat climbing into the low to mid 60s. Lows drop into the low to mid 40s on Saturday night. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front with highs in the low to mid 50s on Sunday and upper 40s on Monday. Low temperatures will also be much colder with lows on Sunday night dropping down into the upper 20s away from the coast. Cool and dry conditions are expected for next week with temperatures remaining below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak sfc hi pres will remain centered N of the region today...ridging SW over the piedmont in VA and the Carolinas. A weak surface low is expected to develop off the NC Outer Banks today...then lift NE off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight. BKN- OVC (mainly MVFR) CIGs for the coastal areas this morning...then inland by 15-20Z today. CIGs are expected to be MVFR or low-end VFR ranging from 1.5-2.5 kft near the coast...and 2.0-3.5 kft farther inland. Mostly cloudy but becoming VFR by late tonight as a cold front approaches from the W...then a mainly dry frontal passage Thu morning. WNW winds becomes gusty Thu...waning Thu night as VFR conditions continue. VFR conditions Fri into Sat...w/ increased potential of degraded flight conditions (and at least SCT SHRAs late Sat-early Sun w/ the next cold frontal passage.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure dominates the weather pattern through today. SCA flags ongoing for srn Bay and ocean with N-NE winds 15-20kt. Bay zones expire at noon today. Seas are averaging 5-6ft coastal waters and should persist above 5ft through Fri before subsiding. As such, have extended SCA`s for ocean thru Thu evening (700 PM EST) or end of the 3rd period of the forecast for now. Waves on Ches Bay generally 3ft south; 2-3ft north. Stacked low pressure crosses the Upper Great Lakes Wed/Wed night and digs into srn Ontario tonight...dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley overnight. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough ejects off the main upper low and is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic Region late night and may allow a sfc coastal low to spin up near the ern VA/Delmarva coasts late tonight into Thu morning before tracking NE along the New England Coast Thu aftn by the main upper level wave. Pressure gradient tightens up Thu evening due to presence of coastal low and sfc high pressure building over Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Winds generally light and onshore/ENE to N aob 10kt Wed night...becoming NW to W and increasing to roughly 10-15kt all waters Thu morning into the aftn. A cold air advection surge is anticipated Thu night into Fri morning with a period of NW winds 15-20kt Bay/Ocean/Sound allowing SCA conditions to redevelop for Bay/Sound and persist on ocean where gusts could reach 30kt north of Parramore Island. Seas 3-5ft Thu-Fri morning. Waves 2-3ft Thu...building to 3-4ft Thu night. SCA conditions subside through Fri as high pressure builds back into the region from the west. Sfc high stalls along the Southeast Coast Fri night...sliding offshore Sat. Next cold front to race through the area Sat aftn/evening. A much colder airmass and a decent pressure gradient present in its wake should provide the right set-up for strong SCA conditions Sat-Sun. Seas 4-6ft north and 3-5ft south. Waves 3-4ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJB/ALB AVIATION...AJZ/ALB MARINE...BMD

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