Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 152328 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 728 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered off the New England coast, will settle along or just off the mid Atlantic coast later tonight through Monday. The High will slide south of the area Monday night through Wednesday...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest analysis reveals ~1032 mb surface high pressure, centered just off the coast of Maine, ridging SW across the Delmarva and into NC. A pleasant mid-October aftn across the region under mainly sunny skies, the exception being portions of far southeast VA/northeast NC where BKN cumulus has been in place today with onshore NE flow and somewhat higher (dew pts in the mid-upper 50s). This area of mostly cloudy conditions is finally beginning to scatter out now. Temperatures avg in the upper 60s to around 70 F throughout the CWA. For tonight, expect the cumulus to dissipate over the next few hrs with mainly clear conditions for the rest of the evening. Good radiational cooling conditions once again will allow temperatures to rapidly fall into the lower-mid 50s for most areas by later this evening. Overall, not quite as cool as last night as the airmass has modified a bit, but still should have most inland locations dropping into the upper 40s to around 50 F (locally some mid 40s possible). Lows near the immediate coast mainly in the 50s. Given the mainly clear sky, light winds, and slightly higher dew pts than 24 hrs ago, there is better potential for more widespread early morning fog and/or low clouds tonight into Sunday, especially southern zones and the eastern shore. A northern stream upper trough moves across eastern Canada on Sunday, as ridging aloft centers over the Gulf of Mexico. Mixing should be a little deeper by Sun aftn and low level flow shifts to the S/SW. Any early morning fog/clouds should clear out and leave mostly sunny skies with highs warming into the mid 70s most areas, possibly upper 70s depending on degree of aftn mixing. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong upper level ridge builds ENE from the western Gulf across the deep south and into the Carolinas for the first half of the week ahead. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds south across the SE coast. Resultant return flow/building heights aloft will promote continued warming trend Monday and Tuesday (with temperatures running at least 10 degrees above avg. PW values remain AOB 0.75" throughout this period, w/dry and mostly sunny conditions expected to prevail. Highs Monday will avg in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with 80-85 F expected Tue. Early morning lows Monday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s...and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level high pressure centers over the Southeast Wednesday as surface high pressure locates offshore. The combination of return flow and 850mb temperatures warming to around 12-14C (+1 standard deviation) will push daytime temperatures into the low to mid 80`s. The upper high pushes offshore Thursday ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the central US. Dry conditions expected Thursday, resulting in another warm day with highs generally in the mid to upper 70`s. Medium range guidance still struggling with handling the evolution of the central US trough, with the 15/12Z guidance now dropping the trough and a closed low into the deep South into the weekend. Meanwhile, a weakness under the the ridge offshore of the Southeast coast will lift northward Thursday night and Friday. Differences in the trough will have an impact on where the associated surface low lifts. Not buying into the GFS yet due to drastic swings in the placement of the upper low the past few runs. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Friday and await better consensus in future model runs. Highs Friday generally in the upper 60`s to low 70`s under increasing cloudiness. Cold front expected to reach the local area in the Friday night to Saturday time frame. Anomalous upper trough progged to take on a negative tilt Saturday, with an area of low pressure developing along the Southeast coast. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Saturday. Highs in the mid to upper 60`s under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure and VFR conditions prevail all terminals this evening. winds expected to go calm or nearly calm everywhere tonight, potentially setting the stage for fog. Dew point depressions at 23Z were as low as 3 degrees at KPHF, and 4 degrees at KSBY. Have added more fog to the terminals/grids than previous forecast, but am concerned that more fog will occur. Mid shift will need to monitor closely for 06Z TAF. Once fog clears, mostly clear weather is expected on Sunday with some cumulus possible by midday, mainly toward the coast. OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through Thursday. Patchy fog will be possible each morning around sunrise.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers high pressure just offshore of the Northeast coast, ridging southwestward over the local waters. The result is onshore flow (east to northeast) of 5 to 15 knots. Seas remain elevated (3-5 feet) south of the Mouth of the Bay, resulting in ongoing SCA headlines. Buoy 44056 (Duck) still reporting 5 feet. Expect seas to subside below 5 feet late this evening as the wind diminishes to less than 10 knots. NWPS guidance continues to handle the seas well today. High pressure builds southward over the waters on Sunday, remaining over the region through Monday. Winds generally southwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. The high pushes offshore Tuesday ahead of a cold front located over the Midwest. The gradient strengthens over the northern waters (especially the northern coastal waters) Tuesday night as low pressure tracks into southeast Canada. Southwest winds generally 10-20 knots Tuesday night. Southwest flow continues through Wednesday night as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Low pressure progged to lift along the coast Friday/Friday night. Cold front progged to impact the waters next weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Have cancelled the River flood warning for the Nottoway River at Sebrell, as the river fell below flood stage earlier this morning and continues to slowly fall with no additional flooding. See latest FLSAKQ for more information. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Equipment issue... Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Missing data beyond this forecast time. Estimated return to service is no later than Monday afternoon unless otherwise noted. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA/WRS MARINE...SAM HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.