Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271923 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 323 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...THEN PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AIRMASS PRIMED AND READY FOR CONVECTION INTO THIS EVE. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTG TO DEVELOP OVR SE VA INTO NE NC...WHILE OTHER AREAS OF SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS OCCURRING MNLY W AND NW OF THE RIC-PTB CORRIDOR. THROUGH THIS EVE...DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO NR LAKE ERIE W/ TRAILING CDFNT EXITING THE MTNS. TOR WATCH OUT UNTIL 00Z/28 FOR FA ALG-E OF I 95. DEWPTS ARE RISEN INTO THE L/M70S AND ARE SLOLY TURNING MORE SSE FM CNTRL VA ON SSE AS WARM FRONT CONTS ITS PUSH N. THREAT EXISTS CONTD PTNTL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR INVOF/S OF WARM FRONT (POSSIBLE TORNADOES)...WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING THERE IS A CONTINUED CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH ADDITIONAL AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" W/ LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL. HWVR...A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...SO LOCAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED. SHWRS/TSTMS TAPER OFF THEN END W-E AFT MDNGT AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE CST AND OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S NW TO THE L70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST EARLY SUN...OTW...SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SW (AND GUSTY) DURING SUN. (BECOMING) SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY W/ HI TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN THE M/U80S. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE FA SUN NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS OFFSHORE MON. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON MON. FOR NOW...KEEPING POPS BELOW 15%...AND SKY CONDITIONS AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS SUN NGT FROM THE UPR 50S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 IN VA TO THE LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS MON AGAIN IN THE MID/UPR 80S. NEXT CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...HAVE ADDED 20-30% (HIGHEST WNW PORTION) FOR AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S TO L90S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT TUES AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT/MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WEDS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION IN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...COMBINING WITH PWATS ~1.8 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. RETAINED 30-40 PCT POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINATION OF SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND H85 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 14-18C WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TSTMS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE AFTN AND LATE EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN RE- ORGANIZES IN VICINITY OF THE NJ COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A SE WIND INCREASING TO 20-25KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...3-4FT SEAS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6FT N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...WITH WAVES IN THE BAY BUILDING FROM 2-3FT TO 3- 4FT. FARTHER S...THE ONSET OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND BECOMES SW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN W BY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 20KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS/WAVES 4-5FT/3-4FT. THE WIND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... RAISED CSTL FLOOD ADVSRY FOR AREAS ALG CHES BAY...AT LEWISETTA VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD...FOR ANOMALIES RISING TO 1-1.5 FT ABV NORMAL TNGT. INCRSG SSE WNDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE XPCD TO BUILD UP WATER INVOF CNTRL CHES BAY. CURRENT ANOMALIES AVGG ABT 1 FT ABV NRML...AND XPCD TO INCRS INTO TNGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...NONE. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ077. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650- 652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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