Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191406 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 1006 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure slowly moves away from the coast through this afternoon. High pressure returns tonight into Monday. A cold front approaches from the northwest Monday night and settles into the area Tuesday. Low pressure tracks across the region Tuesday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Upper level low circulating invof ern VA this morning will be slow to track ESE and off the coast through this afternoon. Widespread pcpn (RA mixed w/ wet SN) will linger over ern/SE VA into NE NC until early afternoon before shifting off the coast. Nothing more than a coating of SN is spots so far...nothing more than that expected from the additional mixed pcpn (into early this afternoon). Reamining mostly cloudy E of I 95 while becoming partly sunny W. Gusty NNW winds to 20-30 mph...highest near the coast will be slow to wane by later today. Due to widespread cloudiness...expecting temperatures to rise no higher than the 40s E...l-m50s well W of I 95.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry conditions prevail tonight into Monday as surface high pressure builds across the area. A NW wind will be slow to subside, especially through Monday morning along the coast. Mainly clear/sunny tonight into Monday morning, with increasing clouds Monday aftn, especially N with mid-level WAA. Lows tonight range from 30-35F inland, to the mid/upper 30s for SE VA/NE NC. Milder Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s along the coast to the low 60s farther inland. Surface high pressure slides offshore and dissipates Monday night as a weakening cold front approaches from the NW with cloud cover continuing to spread across the region. A 20-30% PoP for showers is forecast across nrn portions of the area with minimal QPF. The cold front drops sewd into the area Tuesday with mainly cloudy conditions continuing. Low-level dry air is expected to prevail through much of the day, with only a 20-30% PoP across SW portions ahead of low pressure developing over the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures range from the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore, to around 60F near the Chesapeake Bay, and 65-70F farther inland across central/srn VA and interior NE NC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers expected Tue night into Wed morning, as low pressure along the frontal boundary moves acrs the Carolinas and off the coast. A brief mix of RA/SN is possible across nrn portions of the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as colder air pushes in from the NW. Dry wx and cool temps will follow for Wed aftn into Thu night, as high pressure builds SE fm the Great Lakes to off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Increasingly warmer temps then expected Fri and Sat, but also a gradual increase in low level moisture and pcpn chcs. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Wed, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, in the upper 50s to lower 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed night, in the 30s Thu night, and in the mid 40s to near 50 Fri night. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper low will pivot swd along the Mid-Atlantic coast through 18z. A band of rain, reduced vsby, and low cigs will accompany the upper system. Rain will gradually overspread the region through 10z, with cigs forecast to drop to IFR at all sites. Rain gradually ends from NNW-SSE between 14-18z. A NNE wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt, and locally 30-35kt at the coast. Cigs begin to lift and scatter by aftn as the low moves offshore and high pressure builds in from the NW. High pressure prevails Sunday night and gradually slides offshore Monday. A weakening cold front pushes through the area Monday night bringing a 20-30% chc of showers, mainly from RIC- SBY. This boundary stalls across the region Tuesday, with low pressure tracking along the front Tuesday night with rain and degraded flight conditions likely. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and settles over the area Thursday. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers ~1008mb low pressure offshore the Delmarva coast, with the attendant cold front pushing south of the local waters. Northeast winds have begun to increase over the northern waters early this morning, with gusts of 30-35 knots observed already in the northern coastal waters. Seas have also responded in the northern waters, building to 3-5 feet. Elsewhere 2- 3 feet. Waves 1-2 feet. North to northeast winds quickly increase early this morning as strong cold air advection in tandem with strong pressure rises overspread the waters. Speeds increase to 20- 30 knots with gusts of 35-40 knots. Seas quickly build to 6-9 feet by daybreak in the northern waters, with the southern waters reaching 6-11 feet by mid morning. High surf advisories have been extended northward to Virginia Beach. Waves build to 4-6 feet...with 7 footers expected in the mouth of the bay. Have kept the lower James River under SCA headlines, but cannot rule out a few gusts to around 35 knots centered a few hours around 10am. Waves in the lower James build to 3-5 feet...highest in the mouth of the river. Gale conditions persist through at least early afternoon, before diminishing through the afternoon. Have extended the Bay through mid afternoon, with Gale headlines dropping off late today in the southern coastal waters and sound. Winds become north, northwest late today as the low deepens offshore the Northeast coast and high pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions persist over the waters (minus the rivers) through early Monday morning. Seas subside to 4-6 feet late tonight. High pressure builds southward across the waters Monday with northwest winds diminishing to 5-15 knots Monday afternoon. Seas finally subside below 5 feet Monday afternoon. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Monday night with flow becoming southwesterly over the local waters at 5-15 knots. The next front drops slowly over the waters Tuesday. The front drops south of the waters Tuesday night as low pressure develops offshore. Expect a northerly surge late Tuesday night, with SCA conditions expected. High pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG

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