Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 121827 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 127 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A complex area of low pressure approaches from the southwest today...then pushes across the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into early Saturday. High pressure builds in from the northwest Saturday night with a return to colder weather Sunday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest sfc analysis continues to show Arctic cold front lumbering east across the Ohio and TN River valleys this afternoon. Mild to warm temperatures in the warm sector out ahead of the boundary on stout Sly wind. SBY has already reached a new record high, with the remaining sites seeing daily record high temps within reach this afternoon. See climate section below. Regional radar mosaic places much of the local area in the expected lull in pcpn early this afternoon, with only some spotty showers lifting across the area. Warm air over cooler ocean waters bringing areas of fog across coastal E VA/NE NC and lower MD Eastern shore...with VSBY 1-3 miles on average along the immediate coast. Rain chances ramp back up once again late this aftn into tonight as upper shortwave over the deep south ejects northeast toward the local area, with the associated sfc low tracking into the region from the W-SW, and pushing the cold front across the local area Saturday morning. Meager low-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to overall convective potential. However, RAP/HRRR each depict 40-50kt LLJ lifting across NE NC/SE VA zones after 21z/4p this aftn. HRRR/RAP both key into some localized llvl convergence boundaries after 6-7pm this evening, which could portend to a few gusty showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. have carried over likely to categorical prob for SHRAs...w/a brief round of +RA likely this evening. Remaining mild for much of tonight...w/ early morning lows to range from the l40s NW to the l50s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Sfc cold front slides off the coast Sat morning...resulting in winds veering around to the NNW. Quasi-downslope flow will scour out most of the showers by Saturday afternoon, bringing some partial clearing. However, expect more clouds than sun once again on average underneath the upper trough. Expect significant post-frontal low level CAA to wait until late in the day due to the primary upper trough being slow to cross the region. Highs early in the day range from the l-m40s far NW to the m50s SE...then temperatures to remain steady or slowly fall through the afternoon. Upper trough axis crosses the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with stronger surge of CAA. Lows Sat night mainly ranging through the 20s. Dry/cold wx Sun and despite a fair amount of sunshine...highs will only be in the l-m30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low confidence forecast beyond Monday as 12z/11 suite of models are having a difficult time in resolving differences wrt handling of a strong upper trough/closed low digging across the Great Lakes/Northeast next week. Will lean toward a blend of the 12z GFS/GEFS/CMC which all seem to be in reasonable agreement with the aforementioned trough/closed low pivoting SE to a centralized position over Lake Erie by 12z Tues. From there, this feature slowly lifts NE into New England by 12z Thurs. In doing so, it will force a cold front through the local area on Tues with high pressure returning next Wed/Thu. What remains to be seen as whether or not the front produces any pcpn as it passes on Tues, as it would probably be cold enough aloft to generate some snow showers (at least NE of the I-64 corridor). Have placed some low PoPs in these areas. Otherwise, next week is looking dry and chilly. Highs Monday from the mid 30s N to low 40s S. Highs Tuesday from the mid 30s N to the mid 40s south. Highs next Wed/Thu in the 30s. Lows through the period primarily in the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Expected break in the widespread pcpn ongoing across terminals this aftn. Still noting some patchy fog from time to time, especially along coastal terminals. MVFR (LCL IFR along Atlantic coast) continuing this aftn. Expect deteriorating conditions once again, with widespread IFR conditions expected this evening (CIG/VSY) precipitation moving back in this eve and through the overnight hours. Sfc low pres and a cold front push across the region from the W-SW late tonight/early Saturday. Outlook: SHRAs taper off Sat morning...w/improving CIGS Sat aftn as drier air arrives from the NW Sat aftn/night through Sun. High pres locates W of the region by Sunday and Monday, with mainly VFR conditions expected..
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&& .MARINE... Based off of local web cams/sfc obs and a couple of phone calls, went ahead and issued a dense fog advsry for vsbys under 1NM across the coastal waters/srn Ches Bay/Currituck Sound and the lwr James River thru 9 AM. Tightening pres gradient ahead of a cold front results in SCA winds across most of the waters today. The gustiness relaxes tonight thinking some area will drop below SCA levels across the Ches bay. Models suggest wind stay at SCA levels tonight at the mouth of the bay so extended the headlines there. Otw, SCA`s cont over the coastal waters through Sat aftrn mainly for seas above 5 ft, but also for ocnl gusts to 25 kts. Cold front crosses the area Sat with the CAA surge overspreading the waters through out the day. Although a solid SCA event is expected, prefer to hold off with these headlines until the current headline expires. That being said, given the temp and gusty north wind forecast, went ahead and added light freezing spray to the grids Sat night and Sunday. Canadian high pressure builds into the area for early next week. A north wind at speeds 15 kt or less can be expected through Tuesday along with subsiding seas. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures today (Jan 12) RIC 71/2005 ORF 75/1890 SBY 67/2017 ECG 72/2017 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>636- 638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...

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