Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 152328
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
728 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
High pressure centered off the New England coast, will settle
along or just off the mid Atlantic coast later tonight through
Monday. The High will slide south of the area Monday night through
Wednesday...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest analysis reveals ~1032 mb surface high pressure, centered
just off the coast of Maine, ridging SW across the Delmarva and
into NC. A pleasant mid-October aftn across the region under
mainly sunny skies, the exception being portions of far southeast
VA/northeast NC where BKN cumulus has been in place today with
onshore NE flow and somewhat higher (dew pts in the mid-upper
50s). This area of mostly cloudy conditions is finally beginning
to scatter out now. Temperatures avg in the upper 60s to around
70 F throughout the CWA.
For tonight, expect the cumulus to dissipate over the next few
hrs with mainly clear conditions for the rest of the evening. Good
radiational cooling conditions once again will allow temperatures
to rapidly fall into the lower-mid 50s for most areas by later
this evening. Overall, not quite as cool as last night as the
airmass has modified a bit, but still should have most inland
locations dropping into the upper 40s to around 50 F (locally some
mid 40s possible). Lows near the immediate coast mainly in the
50s. Given the mainly clear sky, light winds, and slightly higher
dew pts than 24 hrs ago, there is better potential for more
widespread early morning fog and/or low clouds tonight into
Sunday, especially southern zones and the eastern shore.
A northern stream upper trough moves across eastern Canada on
Sunday, as ridging aloft centers over the Gulf of Mexico. Mixing
should be a little deeper by Sun aftn and low level flow shifts to
the S/SW. Any early morning fog/clouds should clear out and leave mostly
sunny skies with highs warming into the mid 70s most areas,
possibly upper 70s depending on degree of aftn mixing.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong upper level ridge builds ENE from the western Gulf across
the deep south and into the Carolinas for the first half of the
week ahead. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds south across the
SE coast. Resultant return flow/building heights aloft will
promote continued warming trend Monday and Tuesday (with
temperatures running at least 10 degrees above avg. PW values
remain AOB 0.75" throughout this period, w/dry and mostly sunny
conditions expected to prevail. Highs Monday will avg in the upper
70s to lower 80s, with 80-85 F expected Tue. Early morning lows
Monday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s...and in the upper 50s to
lower 60s Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level high pressure centers over the Southeast Wednesday as
surface high pressure locates offshore. The combination of return
flow and 850mb temperatures warming to around 12-14C (+1 standard
deviation) will push daytime temperatures into the low to mid 80`s.
The upper high pushes offshore Thursday ahead of a deepening upper
level trough over the central US. Dry conditions expected Thursday,
resulting in another warm day with highs generally in the mid to
upper 70`s. Medium range guidance still struggling with handling the
evolution of the central US trough, with the 15/12Z guidance now
dropping the trough and a closed low into the deep South into the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weakness under the the ridge offshore of the
Southeast coast will lift northward Thursday night and Friday.
Differences in the trough will have an impact on where the
associated surface low lifts. Not buying into the GFS yet due to
drastic swings in the placement of the upper low the past few runs.
Will keep mention of chance POP`s Friday and await better consensus
in future model runs. Highs Friday generally in the upper 60`s to
low 70`s under increasing cloudiness. Cold front expected to reach
the local area in the Friday night to Saturday time frame. Anomalous
upper trough progged to take on a negative tilt Saturday, with an
area of low pressure developing along the Southeast coast. Will keep
mention of chance POP`s Saturday. Highs in the mid to upper 60`s
under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure and VFR conditions prevail all terminals this
evening. winds expected to go calm or nearly calm everywhere
tonight, potentially setting the stage for fog. Dew point
depressions at 23Z were as low as 3 degrees at KPHF, and 4
degrees at KSBY. Have added more fog to the terminals/grids than
previous forecast, but am concerned that more fog will occur. Mid
shift will need to monitor closely for 06Z TAF.
Once fog clears, mostly clear weather is expected on Sunday with
some cumulus possible by midday, mainly toward the coast.
OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through Thursday. Patchy fog will
be possible each morning around sunrise.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Latest surface analysis centers high pressure just offshore of the
Northeast coast, ridging southwestward over the local waters. The
result is onshore flow (east to northeast) of 5 to 15 knots. Seas
remain elevated (3-5 feet) south of the Mouth of the Bay, resulting
in ongoing SCA headlines. Buoy 44056 (Duck) still reporting 5 feet.
Expect seas to subside below 5 feet late this evening as the wind
diminishes to less than 10 knots. NWPS guidance continues to handle
the seas well today. High pressure builds southward over the waters
on Sunday, remaining over the region through Monday. Winds generally
southwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. The high pushes offshore
Tuesday ahead of a cold front located over the Midwest. The gradient
strengthens over the northern waters (especially the northern
coastal waters) Tuesday night as low pressure tracks into southeast
Canada. Southwest winds generally 10-20 knots Tuesday night.
Southwest flow continues through Wednesday night as a cold front
slowly approaches from the west. Low pressure progged to lift along
the coast Friday/Friday night. Cold front progged to impact the
waters next weekend.
Have cancelled the River flood warning for the Nottoway River at
Sebrell, as the river fell below flood stage earlier this morning
and continues to slowly fall with no additional flooding. See
latest FLSAKQ for more information.
Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has
resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level
hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Missing data beyond this forecast
time. Estimated return to service is no later than Monday
afternoon unless otherwise noted.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ656-658.