Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260628 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 228 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM. MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS. GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB/MAS

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