Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260020 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 820 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... BREEZY/WARM AFTN W/ TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S (PAST 80F WELL INLAND) AND MNLY SKC (THOUGH RIGHT NR THE OCN MUCH COOLER - OXB/WAL IN THE L-M60S). SSW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH CONTG INTO EARLY THIS EVE. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN W OF THE FA...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THIS EVE THAT MAY WONDER E INTO FAR WNW LOCATIONS OF FA. A CDFNT WILL RMN WELL NNW OF FA FM SRN NEW ENG TO LWR GREAT LAKES. WARM/DRY NGT W/ SCT CLDS. ISOLD SHRAS PSBL N AND NW OF FA. LO TEMPS FM THE U50S TO L60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CST THROUGH TUE...RESULTING IN CONTG LO LVL FLO FM THE SSW (GUSTY AGN DURING MIDDAY/AFTN HRS). NR ZONAL FLO ALOFT TUE-TUE NGT SLOWING PUSH S OF CDFNT FM THE N. WIDESPREAD CLDS AND AN AREA OF SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS WILL BE NR THE FNT AS IT APPROACHES FM THE N. DOWNSLOPING SW FLO XPCD TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RA AWAY FM THE FA UNTIL (LT) TUE AFTN. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS N-PARTLY CLOUDY CNTRL/S TUE...W/ POPS AVGG 25-35% N AND 5-20% S TUE AFTN. WARM TUE W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M70S-L80S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L-M80S NR THE BAY/OCN IN ERN/SE VA AND CSTL NE NC...M-U80S INLAND. THE CDFNT PRESSES SLOLY S ACRS THE FA TUE NGT-WED MRNG...XPCD TO STALL OVR NC BY WED AFTN. HIGHER PROB FOR SHRAS-MAYBE TSTMS TUE NGT. COOLING NE WNDS ON WED W/ THE FNT JUST TO THE S OF THE FA. SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN SHORE). WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L-M50S ON THE ERN SHORE TO U50S-L60S ELSW. HI TEMPS WED U50S- M60S NE TO 70-80F SW. THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA LT WED NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...HAVE PUSHED POPS UP ABT 10-15% THROUGHOUT. TIMING/COVERAGE RMNS UNCERTAIN. WILL INCLUDE CHC TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U40S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE ARND 60F IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO M-U70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THUR NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE E AND SE TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL REACH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. S/SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP NORTHERN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY. KEPT PCPN OUT OF THE TAF EXCEPT AT SBY AFT 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PCPN. SOME IFR WILL BE PSBL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .MARINE... S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND 15-20 KT COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP MORE. THIS WILL CREATE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS FOR CHES BAY DUE TO WINDS OF 15- 20KT...AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT DUE TO GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5FT. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SWD OVER THE WATERS AND STALLS OVER/NEARBY THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. SW WINDS AOB 15KT TUESDAY NIGHT BECOME MORE NE-E/ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER SOUTH. SEAS 3-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 FT WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO CHANGE ON LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PREVAIL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD/JDM

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