Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 141722
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
122 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered immediately off the Southeast
coast today through Friday maintaining warm temperatures. A cold
front approaches from the northwest Friday afternoon and
evening bringing a chance of showers. This cold front crosses
the region late Friday night into early Saturday. Dry and mild
Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front will bring cooler
temperatures early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...
The flow aloft across the Mid-Atlantic region early this
morning is out of the NW between a moisture-starved trough off
the coast, and a building ridge of the Ohio Valley. Surface high
pressure is centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast. Mostly
clear early this morning with a few high clouds and
temperatures ranging through the 40s. The upper ridge builds
across the area today into tonight, with surface high pressure
sliding off the Southeast coast. Sunny today with a light S to
SW wind. 850mb temperatures climb to 9-10C by this afternoon,
supporting high temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80F, with
locally cooler temperatures along the immediate coast. Mostly
clear and mild for most of tonight, with high clouds arriving
from the W late. Low temperatures will primarily be in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...
The mid/upper ridge breaks down Friday as a cold front
approaches from the NW. Warm ahead of the front with high
temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 70s N to around 80F S
(Cooler along the immediate coast) with increasing clouds.
Breezier Friday with a SW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25
mph. Scattered showers are expected along and ahead of the front
later Friday afternoon and evening, before rain chances taper
off from NW- SW overnight. Forecast soundings depict some
instability, so isolated rumbles of thunder are possible (mainly
afternoon/evening). Overall, QPF is minimal, and mainly 0.1" or
less.
The cold front drops through the region early Saturday morning.
Not as warm Saturday, but still primarily above seasonal
averages with high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70F
inland, but cooler along the coast with a NE wind and high
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...
Weak high pressure builds over the area Saturday night and
slides offshore Sunday ahead of another cold front. Lows
Saturday night will mainly be in the 40s under a mostly clear
sky. Increasing clouds Sunday ahead of the cold front with highs
in the mid 60s to around 70F. This cold front will drop across
the region Sunday night, and this is expected to be a dry
frontal passage. Cooler temperatures arrive behind this cold
front. Highs will mainly be in the 50s Monday through Wednesday
(upper 40s possible NE Tuesday), with morning lows in the upper
20s to lower 30s inland and mid/upper 30s along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure off the southeast coast has created VFR conditions
for our local area for the TAF period. Batches of high clouds
will continue to stream through for the rest of the day into the
overnight resulting in FEW-SCT250 skies at times. Winds are SW
at 5-10kt. Expect these conditions to persist into the first
part of Friday before a cold front approaches the area later in
the day. Chances for scattered showers will increase after
16-18Z and continue into the early overnight hours. Temporary
VIS restrictions may be possible within the scattered activity.
An isolated TS can`t be ruled out as well. Breezier Friday aftn
with a SW wind increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.
Outlook: Dry and VFR Saturday through Monday, with a dry cold
front crossing the region Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 405 AM EDT Thursday...
Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered along the SE
coast. Winds were mainly SW 5-10 kt. Waves were 1-2 ft, and
seas were near 2 ft.
Benign, sub-SCA conditions will prevail through this evening,
as high pressure will eventually slide well off the SE coast.
Light SW winds will turn to the S this aftn and become 5-15 kt
by this evening. Increasing SW winds to 10-20 kt are then
expected ahead of a cold front for late tonight into early Fri
aftn. A 3-6 hour period of low-end SCA gusts will be possible
on the Rivers/Currituck Sound and near the land/water interface
on the south/west side of the bay late Fri morning into early
Fri aftn (when mixing over land is maximized). Winds become W
then NW or N Fri night into Sat morning, with the frontal
passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few knots
below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a brief
period of ~20 kt gusts between 4-10 AM Sat on the bay. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected Sat aftn through the rest of the
weekend.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/JKP
MARINE...ERI/TMG