Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210906 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 406 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast through Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops south across the area Thursday, then lifts back north across the region through the Friday afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest Wx analysis reveals Low pressure sliding across southern Quebec this morning, with the attendant Sfc cold front extending back into the Ohio and Lower Miss River Valleys this morning. The sfc warm front is clear up into northern New England early this morning. With the entire region in the warm sector, winds are S and mainly light (at or below 10 mph) and temperatures currently at or near the dew point (along w/ plenty of ground moisture due to recent rain events). HRRR/NARRE still bullish on fog development towards sunrise into the morning rush, but not quite as low as yesterday morning. Continuing w/ mention of areas of FG this morning...and will keep an eye on Obs for possible SPS issuance for later this morning. Mild start to the day, with temperatures already well into the 50s to low 60s across the local area. Morning low clouds/fog burn off by mid to late morning with a pt to mstly sunny and warm afternoon on the way across the region. Strong (breezy) SSW flow/WAA will allow for maxima well into the 70s to around 80F. Daily record highs at RIC/SBY will likely fall, and we`ll come close at ECG/ORF. Highs 75-80 except holding the 60s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The cold front approaches from the north tonight, dropping across northern tier of the forecast area tomorrow morning. Overrunning moisture incrs along and ahead of this boundary with low chc pops for sct showers across the nrn half of the area overnight...mainly after midnight into Thu morning. More low stratus tonight, and expect another mild night in the warm sector with areas of fog possible, especially over the water and along the coast. Lows 55-60 except 50-55 ern shore areas. 00z Models in a bit better agreement with handling of front, as it drops south across the area Thu/Thu night. Moisture remains confined mainly to areas along and north of the Va border so will keep chc pops RIC metro to slight chance Tidewater. Did maintained low end likely (lgt rain/drizzle) across the far north for the afternoon and evening. Nam Conest/ARW have been used to depict weak CAD wedge setting up behind the cool frontal passage, with temperatures dropping off in the piedmont and northern tier of counties in the afternoon. Meanwhile, temps should remain in the 70s for all/much of the aftn across se counties. Highs 50-55 ern shore to low-mid 70s across nern NC. Cooler Thurs night with light rain lingering (north) as a moist onshore flow develops. Lows in the low 40s N to around 50 far S. Will keep chc showers going Fri as front slips back north as a warm front due to the moist onshore flow. Highs in the lwr 50s north to lwr 60s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aforementioned sfc boundary is expected to set up north of the area on Saturday leading to southwest flow and very warm temperatures with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s for a good portion of the area (cooler across the Eastern Shore). We should stay dry for a good portion of the day Saturday with the highest rain chances closer to the boundary across the north and west. Chances for showers will increase from the northwest Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front begins to approach the region. Mild temperatures are expected on Saturday night with lows generally ranging from the mid to upper 50s. The cold front crosses region during the day on Sunday bringing a chance for showers (and potentially some isolated thunder) to the area. Another mild day out ahead of the front on Sunday with highs in the 70s for much of the area. Showers may try to linger Sunday night into Monday, especially across the east. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 40s NW to the lower 50s SE and highs Monday will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure builds across the region Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low Ceilings and areas of fog (including locally dense) across terminals this morning. After morning clouds/fog burn off Wed...VFR conditions expected by the afternoon. Ceilings look to drop back down tonight, with some additional flight restrictions possible in fog late tonight. A slight chance of Showers exists at SBY late Wed night. Outlook: A back door cold front approaches from the NW tonight then drops south across the area on Thu. Expecting a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog in moist onshore flow Thu/Fri behind this feature. Front slips back north of the area on Friday night into Saturday. A stronger cold front will drop across the area Sunday night, with another period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows broad Bermuda high pressure offshore with a cold front over the OH Valley. Similar pattern today as yesterday, leading to 10-15 kt SSW winds and 1-2 ft waves over the Bay, 2-3 ft seas over coastal wtrs. Also continued the dense fog advsry through midday, though marine fog may also continue into tonight and Thu. Aforementioned front drops into the area Thu morning, with winds becoming light/vrb near the front. Still some uncertainty over how far south the front drops, but for now sub-SCA conditions appear likely during the day Thu. Seas over northern coastal wtrs may build up to 5 ft Thu night. The front then lifts off to the north late Fri/Fri night. && .CLIMATE... Record highs will likely be challenged today (Wed) 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Wed 2/21 RIC: 75 (1930) ORF: 79 (2014) SBY: 75 (1943) ECG: 77 (2014) * Record high mins for 2/21. RIC: 54 (1953) ORF: 58 (1953) SBY: 51 (1953) ECG: 61 (1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ630>638-650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...ALB/MAM MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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