Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171348 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 948 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will settle to the southeast of the area this afternoon. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday afternoon and evening. High pressure returns late Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Sfc high pres situated over the FA this morning will gradually settle SE of the FA through this afternoon. WAA around the high will bring about milder temperatures than the past few days with highs in the m-u40s ern shore to the l-m50s inland. Sunny now...but clouds will be increasing as a warm front approaches from the W.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An area of showers is expected to cross the FA tonight (from NW to SE) as the warm front moves through the area. With thicknesses rising rapidly as the pcpn moves in and sfc temps expected to remain steady or slowly rise through the 40s, it will be hard pressed to see any snowflakes tonight. Best chance may be with initial push of moisture on the eastern shore this evening as dew pts will still be low. Cannot rule it out be not confident enough to include in the forecast. Otherwise, turning out mostly cloudy. A cold front will approach the area Saturday morning, then move through during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a potent upr low will move across the eastern Great lakes before entering the area Sat night. SW winds ahead of that front will aid in boosting temperatures back to or slightly above normal despite cloudiness. Highs from the mid/upr 50s eastern shore to the low/mid 60s inland. Because of deep-layered WSW flow in place ahead of the upr low/cold front, the best PoPs thru 18z Sat will be across southern/SE areas (40-70%) with limited chances (10-25%) along/north of a FVX-RIC- SBY line. The cold front reaches the coast late Sat aft/eve with the upr low pivoting into the FA from the NW. Additional showers will accompany the upr low and therefore will carry 25-40% PoPs most areas during the aftn/eve (except 50-70% PoPs far SE in the aftn nearest the front). Will hold on to CHC PoPs Saturday night as the upr low dives SE across the mid-Atlantic region. The ECMWF is a bit more robust with pcpn development across the local area Sat night into Sun morning (given its farther SW track of the upr low) and would indicate decent shower coverage. The GFS is drier and limits best shower chances to the E/NE. The ECMWF`s track of the upr low would also place the local area in a slightly colder thermal profile which would be conducive for mixed RA/SN showers Sat night/Sun morn. Have opted to keep all liquid pcpn at this time given marginal thermal profiles and temps remaining above freezing. Lows Sat night from the mid/upr 30s to the low 40s SE coast. The upr low will be slow to exit the coast until Sun afternoon with lingering low PoPs Sun morning. Cooler w/ gusty NNW winds Sun. Mostly cloudy E-VRB clouds W in the morning...then clearing later in the day as the upper level trough exits. Highs 45-50 near the coast to the mid 50s SW of RIC/PTB.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will maintain dry wx Sun night into Mon evening, as it slides over the area then off to the SE. A cold front will drop thru the region Mon night thru Tue, bringing a chance of showers. High pressure and cooler temps will follow for late Tue night thru Thu. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Mon, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Tue, in the upper 40s to upper 50s Wed, and in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thu. Lows in the 30s Sun night, in the lower to mid 40s Mon night, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, and in the upper 20s to mid 30s Wed night. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the 06Z TAF period. High pressure will settle to the south of the area today. High/mid clouds will begin to spread into the region this afternoon as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Winds will be light from the SW and S. Outlook: An approaching cold front will bring the chance for showers and potentially sub-VFR conditions tonight through Saturday. The best chance for lower CIGS/VSBYS will be at KORF and KECG during Sat morning. Additional sct showers will be possible late Sat thru Sun morning as an upper low pivots across the area. High pressure returns later Sunday into Monday for dry/VFR conditions. && .MARINE... No headlines expected in the short term as WNW winds (10-15 KTS) quickly become SSW today as high pressure moves off the Carolina coast. A warm front lifts north across the region tonight keeping winds out of the south below 20 kts with 2-4 ft seas. A cold front crosses the area Saturday shifting the winds back to the WNW. CAA lags and any surge not seen until Sat night. Low pressure along this boundary is progged to rapidly deepen off the Mid Atlantic coast Sat night before slowly lifting NE away from the area Sunday. Strong CAA on the back side of the low will likely require high end SCA`s late Sat night and Sun with possible low end gales over the northern coastal waters Sun. Will hold off on any headlines with this system given a late 4th/5th period event. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MPR

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