Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141722 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 122 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered immediately off the Southeast coast today through Friday maintaining warm temperatures. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers. This cold front crosses the region late Friday night into early Saturday. Dry and mild Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front will bring cooler temperatures early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Thursday... The flow aloft across the Mid-Atlantic region early this morning is out of the NW between a moisture-starved trough off the coast, and a building ridge of the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast. Mostly clear early this morning with a few high clouds and temperatures ranging through the 40s. The upper ridge builds across the area today into tonight, with surface high pressure sliding off the Southeast coast. Sunny today with a light S to SW wind. 850mb temperatures climb to 9-10C by this afternoon, supporting high temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80F, with locally cooler temperatures along the immediate coast. Mostly clear and mild for most of tonight, with high clouds arriving from the W late. Low temperatures will primarily be in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Thursday... The mid/upper ridge breaks down Friday as a cold front approaches from the NW. Warm ahead of the front with high temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 70s N to around 80F S (Cooler along the immediate coast) with increasing clouds. Breezier Friday with a SW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. Scattered showers are expected along and ahead of the front later Friday afternoon and evening, before rain chances taper off from NW- SW overnight. Forecast soundings depict some instability, so isolated rumbles of thunder are possible (mainly afternoon/evening). Overall, QPF is minimal, and mainly 0.1" or less. The cold front drops through the region early Saturday morning. Not as warm Saturday, but still primarily above seasonal averages with high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70F inland, but cooler along the coast with a NE wind and high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Thursday... Weak high pressure builds over the area Saturday night and slides offshore Sunday ahead of another cold front. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the 40s under a mostly clear sky. Increasing clouds Sunday ahead of the cold front with highs in the mid 60s to around 70F. This cold front will drop across the region Sunday night, and this is expected to be a dry frontal passage. Cooler temperatures arrive behind this cold front. Highs will mainly be in the 50s Monday through Wednesday (upper 40s possible NE Tuesday), with morning lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and mid/upper 30s along the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 115 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure off the southeast coast has created VFR conditions for our local area for the TAF period. Batches of high clouds will continue to stream through for the rest of the day into the overnight resulting in FEW-SCT250 skies at times. Winds are SW at 5-10kt. Expect these conditions to persist into the first part of Friday before a cold front approaches the area later in the day. Chances for scattered showers will increase after 16-18Z and continue into the early overnight hours. Temporary VIS restrictions may be possible within the scattered activity. An isolated TS can`t be ruled out as well. Breezier Friday aftn with a SW wind increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Outlook: Dry and VFR Saturday through Monday, with a dry cold front crossing the region Sunday night.
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&& .MARINE... As of 405 AM EDT Thursday... Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered along the SE coast. Winds were mainly SW 5-10 kt. Waves were 1-2 ft, and seas were near 2 ft. Benign, sub-SCA conditions will prevail through this evening, as high pressure will eventually slide well off the SE coast. Light SW winds will turn to the S this aftn and become 5-15 kt by this evening. Increasing SW winds to 10-20 kt are then expected ahead of a cold front for late tonight into early Fri aftn. A 3-6 hour period of low-end SCA gusts will be possible on the Rivers/Currituck Sound and near the land/water interface on the south/west side of the bay late Fri morning into early Fri aftn (when mixing over land is maximized). Winds become W then NW or N Fri night into Sat morning, with the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few knots below SCA criteria, although there is the potential for a brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 4-10 AM Sat on the bay. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sat aftn through the rest of the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...AJZ/JKP MARINE...ERI/TMG

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