Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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244 FXUS61 KAKQ 200909 CCA AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 424 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina this morning and will remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. The boundary dissipates late in the week allowing the Bermuda high to build back in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front is slowly advancing towards the coast early this morning. Overall, light to moderate rainfall will impact areas along/south of the SE VA/NE NC border through the morning. A rumble or two of thunder may be possible closer to Albemarle Sound during this time. While the morning will begin under cloudy skies, a gradual improvement from northwest to southeast with clouds scattering out along/NW of an AVC-RIC-SBY line. Otherwise, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will persist invof the stalling front over far southeastern areas. Thunderstorms to re-develop invof the front this afternoon into this evening as moisture continues to stream into the area from the southwest. Brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds will be possible under stronger storm cores. Localized flooding and ponding of water on roadways in areas where training occurs may also be possible. Will carry mention in HWO. Showers will continue into the overnight hours...especially invof the frontal boundary. Temperatures will be slightly below normal today (80-85F) given the saturated surface conditions and morning cloud cover hampering overall daytime heating. For tonight, expect lows in the upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The front remains stalled invof SE VA/NE NC on Wednesday due to persistent troughing aloft being slow to track through New England, and strong high pressure in the WSW Atlantic blocking eastward movement of the stalled front. Expect a repeat performance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across mainly the southeastern half of the FA with brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds possible under stronger storm cores. Temperatures also similar to Tuesday with highs Wednesday 80-85F and lows Wednesday night in the upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Wednesday night into Thursday...Flow aloft becomes more W-NW and gradually shifts the moisture axis associated with the stalled boundary SE of the local area. As this occurs, the front washes out and transitions into a warm front which is expected to lift northward on Thursday. This will allow Gulf Moisture to surge into the TN Valley and Southeast States. Overall, Thursday should be dry for the local area. However, the aforementioned moisture will gradually move into the Mid Atlantic Region with showers/thunderstorms anticipated Thursday evening/overnight. Warmer Thursday as the region becomes located with the warm sector. Expect highs in the mid-upper 80s (around 80 beaches). A return to warm and muggy conditions Thursday night with low temperatures/dewpoints in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Anomalously moist air mass remains over the region through the upcoming weekend as a series of weakening cold fronts approach from the west. The fronts are expected to stall along the western slopes of the mountains, but pressure falls on the lee side of the Appalachians will induce lee/thermal troughing over central Virginia. Several disturbances progged to track across the region, resulting in scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Have retained above-climo POPs. Near seasonable normal temperatures forecast Friday through Sunday with highs generally in the upper 80`s to low 90`s (cooler along the coast) and lows in the upper 60`s to low 70`s. Medium range guidance digs an upper level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday/Sunday night and into the eastern US Monday/Monday night. While there are still spatial and timing differences in the guidance, an associated (stronger) cold front progged to impact the region Sunday night or Monday. Given the strength of the upper trough, expect the front to clear the local area Monday night as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front is slowly advancing towards the coast as of 20/0600Z. Overall, moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will impact areas along/south of the SE VA/NE NC border...including KECG. South wind gusts around 20-25kt ahead of the front will give way to S-SW winds around 10kt once rain moves overhead. CIGs generally sct-bkn 600-2500ft AGL with an overcast deck 8-12kft AGL. This trend will persist into the daylight hours across SE VA/NE NC as the cold front stalls along the coast and light showers continue. However, CIGs should show gradual improvement as the morning progresses. Clouds expected to scatter out along/NW of an AVC-RIC-SBY line with modest improvement possible at KPHF and KORF today. Thunderstorms to re-develop invof stalled front this afternoon into this evening as moisture continues to stream into the area from the SW. The cold front remains stalled along the coast through Wednesday with a repeat performance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, MVFR CIGs/VIS, brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally gusty winds under stronger storm cores. The stalled front transitions into a weak warm front and is expected to lift northward on Thursday as Gulf Moisture gets pulled into the TN Valley. Patchy fog could become a problem Thursday morning as weak high pressure builds north of the area and over a highly saturated low-level atmosphere. Otherwise, Thursday should be a relatively dry period with VFR conditions anticipated. && .MARINE... A weak cold front is situated from central NC to off the coast of the Lower Ern Shore early this morning. The wind south of the boundary is primarily SW 15-25kt and WSW 10-15kt N of the boundary. Seas remain 4-6ft N of Cape Charles and 3-4ft S of Cape Charles, with waves in the Bay ~2ft. Two distinct periods continue to be observed, one 5-7sec and the other 15-16sec. Recent obs indicate that the shorter period is prevailing. The cold front will wash-out later today with the wind becoming SSW 10-15kt by this aftn and tonight. SCAs end early this morning through midday as the wind diminishes and seas subside. Another weak boundary approaches from the NW Wednesday and drops into the nrn coastal zones Wednesday night. This boundary will lift back to the north Thursday as high pressure builds off the Southeast coast through Saturday. A SW wind aob 15kt is expected to prevail with 2-4ft seas and 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630>634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...ALB/BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...AJZ

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