Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 080901 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB) WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST...WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES NOW BEING OBSERVED ACRS THE CWA AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER OFF TO THE ENE. STILL BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE COAST BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WIND ADSY TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DAYBREAK...INTO THE LOWER 30S ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND...AND THIS CLEARING WILL REACH EAST TO THE COAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS (ALTHOUGH STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE ERN SHORE ALONG WITH A 20% FOR LIGHT RAIN). FOR TODAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV LOBE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST. TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S. UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION. THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40- 45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WED/THU. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND WILL BE ADDING A CSTL FLOOD ADSY AND HIGH SURF FRO ATLC SIDE OF THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8-12FT NEARSHORE WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ024-025. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650- 652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JDM/TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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