Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181918 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 318 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid air mass remains in place across the Mid- Atlantic states today on continued south flow. The next cold front will arrive late tonight and exit the region by Saturday morning. High pressure builds in for Saturday night through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Initial showers that developed early this morning are dissipating quickly and the low stratus deck that has been in place for most areas except along coastal areas of the Tidewater and NE NC is quickly dissipating too. As a result the sun will be coming out and temperatures will quickly jump into the upper 80s and continue up into the low 90s for most areas. Ahead of the cold front, seeing lots of clear sky across wrn VA so warming should continue through the afternoon hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s to around 80 will see heat indices from around 100 to 109 across the area. The highest values will be across SE along the Ches Bay from the Middle Peninsula southward into NE NC. So have issued a heat advisory for that area for the rest of the afternoon. Still looks like afternoon convection will form this afternoon across wrn VA and then head ESE across the region. The 12z NAM is more enhanced with the convection so will need to monitor for possible severe as cape is now forecast to between 3000 - 4000 J/kg. The winds aloft are not extremely strong and the direction shear is minimal. The mostly likely threat would be wind damage from downburst. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... The front slowly pushes southeast early Saturday, and models have once again trended a bit faster with the frontal passage, allowing for a quicker end to showers Sat morning. A strong shortwave trough sweeps across the Mid-Atlantic States Saturday night, but it remains north of the area and with the low level moisture gone, not anticipating much except some mid level clouds. By Sunday, high pressure will be over the region with dry and seasonable weather in place. For temperatures, will continue to see near normal weather with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each day and lows in the low to mid 70s each night except for Saturday night when the drier air will allow temps to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Sfc high pressure builds north of the area with stacked high pressure residing off the Southeast Coast through Mon night. A thermal trough develops in the lee of the Appalachians for Tue/Tue night, and then a cold front is expected to track through the area on Wed...exiting the coast Thu morning. Conditions will become increasingly more humid ahead of the front. Thunderstorm activity expected to become widely scattered Tue as convection develops invof lee trough. The frontal passage Wed/Wed night will provide a better focus for more organized thunderstorms to occur. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE VA/NE NC on Thu. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds across the Midwest with dry conditions anticipated for the Mid Atlantic Region Thu night-Fri night. Highs Tue-Wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s beaches. Highs Thu/Fri low-mid 80s; mid-upper 70s beaches. Lows Mon-Tue nights generally 70-75F. Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to 70-75F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Early morning stratus has burned off with cu developing across much of the region at 18Z. Developing showers/tstms SE of KORF should move offshore before 1830Z, but have included VCSH there in the 18Z-19Z time frame. Radar suggests tstms SE of KECG will remain far enough SE of the terminal to not be an issue, but will continue to closely monitor. A cold front approaching the region this afternoon/evening will initiate shower/tstm development W/NW of the area by 21Z, then moving E/ESE into the region through 03Z. The potential for MVFR/IFR conditions exists as tstms will produce heavy rainfall, but uncertainty of exact timing precludes adding too much specificity to the 18Z TAFs. Have added VCTS to KPHF/KORF since hi-res model guidance suggests decent tstm potential both terminals after 01Z. Expect precipitation to wane after 08Z, leaving generally VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook: VFR conditions returns later Saturday through the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. Some early morning fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings. && .MARINE...
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A cold front approaches the region through this evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a weak boundary along the Mid Atlantic Coast. Winds generally south 10-15kt the rest of today with locally higher gusts of 20-30kt possible in thunderstorms. The front crosses the waters late tonight with more widespread and organized thunderstorms anticipated. Strong wind gusts above 30kt, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will be the primary impacts. Seas 2-3ft build to 3-4ft this evening and during the frontal passage later tonight...subsiding closer to daybreak Sat morning. Waves will average 1-3ft through tonight. Synoptic SCA conditions still not anticipated tonight except with the thunderstorms associated with the front. If any headlines are necessary, they can be handled with short- fused MWS or SMW products. Winds light and variable aob 10kt by mid-morning Sat through Sun as the front stalls near the Mid Atlantic Coast. Winds become more onshore Sun night into Mon as the front sags well south of the area. Seas subsiding from 2-3ft Sat aftn to 2ft by late Sat night through most of Tuesday. South winds Tue/Tue night as a thermal trough develops inland with seas building to 2-3ft Tue/3-4ft Tue night. Winds SW around 15kt Bay/ocean Tue night/Wed as the next cold front is expected to cross the region. Seas/waves average 2-3ft. Winds N-NE aob 15kt behind front Thu/Fri. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017- 030>032. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ084-089-090- 093-095>098-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM SHORT TERM...ESS/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAM/WRS MARINE...BMD

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