Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141826 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 126 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will track northeast off the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon with another weak trough of low pressure passing by to the north of the region later tonight into Thursday morning. Much warmer conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front. The front drops through the area late Friday, bringing colder weather for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current analysis indicating weak sfc trough off the coast, with low clouds lingering over the eastern 1/3 of the CWA late this morning. Lower clouds have cleared out across portions of central VA with some filtered sun making it through the high clouds. Over south central VA, a small area of overrunning light rain continues to slowly push E and will have 20-40% PoPs there through 18Z, shifting E across far southern/SE VA from 18-21Z. Temperatures are mainly ranging through the 40s as of 10 am, with highs later this aftn expected to jump well into the 50s for most areas, possibly to the lower 60s interior NE NC. Milder wx tonight...w/ VRB clouds in the evening, becoming mainly cloudy overnight. Warm front slips N of the local area Wed night- early Thu w/ potential SHRAs (highest PoPs VA/MD locations)...and lows in the u40s- l50s. May have FG invof coast (and over the waters) as the warmer air spreads over the colder waters. Held out of forecast now. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Markedly warmer conditions for Thu/Fri in the warm sector. Strong low-level WAA pushing highs Thu in the 60s across the eastern shore and NC outer Banks to 70-75 F most other places. Lows Thu night will be unseasonably warm, mainly from 55 to 60 F, with highs on Fri in the 60s far N and across the eastern shore to the low-mid 70s elsewhere. A cold front will be pressing SE into the Fri afternoon...accompanied by SHRAs (PoPs increasing to 50-70% by aftn). Otherwise partly- mostly cloudy Fri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front continues to push S of the FA Fri night...w/ colder air on N winds in its wake. How much clearing (and how far S) are in question heading into Sat as sfc hi pres slides by N of the local area. 00Z/14 GFS a bit faster in returning moisture back into the FA (from the WSW) during Sat. Will have 15-25% PoPs by Sat afternoon (highest W) and partial thickness scheme suggests (a lo prob for) SN at the start (across nrn portions). Knocked highs down a couple/few degs F most areas. Lo pres will be tracking through the OH/TN valleys late Sat to srn New England (early Sun)...bringing high prob for (mainly) RA. Then...sfc high pressure will build over the region then offshore Sun and Sun night providing dry wx. The high will move farther out to sea Mon, with a warm front lifting into and acrs the area later Mon into Tue. So, have 15-30% Pops for rain showers during this period. Highs will range thru the l-m40s Sat, in the 50s Sun, in the 50s-l60s Mon, and in the 60s to l70s Tue. Lows in the l30s N to around 40F far SE Fri night, mainly in the 30s Sat night, in the l30s N to the u30s SE Sun night, and in the u40s to l50s Mon night. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Lingering low clouds along the coast finally beginning to lift a bit as of 18Z, though some IFR cigs remain at KECG with MVFR cigs at KSBY. Elsewhere, cigs have lifted to mainly 10-20k ft. SW winds avg 5-10kt. Expect mainly VFR conditions from 21Z this aftn through 06Z/early Thu morning. After that, moisture increases again w/ CIGs lowering to IFR/MVFR and possible SHRAs through 12-15Z/Thu. Some areas of fog also possible but overall expect more low clouds than fog as SW winds remain at 5-10 kt. Clouds lift with increasing SW winds after 15Z/Thu. VRB clouds/CIGs Thu aftn into Fri, in warm sector so would anticipate mainly VFR conditions to prevail. The next cold front crosses the area late Fri with at least scattered showers Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls over NC Sat morning with moisture returning with rain likely Sat, possibly mixed with snow at KRIC/KSBY. Finally turning drier for Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure over eastern VA/NC this morning will sag southward to off the Southeast coast late today. N winds aob 10 kt this morning will become SW at similar speeds this afternoon, then up to 15 kt tonight. Seas linger around 5 ft off the northern OBX thru 5am or so when SCA will end; otherwise, seas 2-4 ft through tonight with waves mainly 1-2 ft. Similar conditions into Thu, with SW winds up to ~15 kt over the Bay and 15-20 kt over the ocean ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west. The next frontal passage is expected Fri, with SCA conditions possible both ahead and behind the front. Will assess potential for possibly hoisting SCA for Thursday night on the next shift. Potential exists for low-end SCA criteria of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt; seas building to 5 ft on the ocean. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood Warning has been cancelled for the RIC locks as the level fell below flood stage this eve. Warning remains up for RIC Westham with slowly falling levels thru the night. See FLSAKQ for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB/TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.