Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270737 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 337 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front slowly drops south through the region today. The front then stalls and dissipates across northeast North Carolina Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak cold front has entered northern portions of the forecast area this morning. Have begun to see some mid clouds (5-7kft) develop south of the front along/east of I-95 as anticipated by latest model guidance. The big question that still remains is whether isold shwrs develop in the aforementioned areas south of the front. Latest CAMS are split on this idea and therefore given recent radar/sat trends am inclined to keep pops silent (<15%) over south-central VA and interior NE NC. The weak front will slowly progress south through the day today...reaching the NC border this evening. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure centered along the New England coast will nudge south into the rest of VA/MD. Light onshore flow (sea breeze) this aftn in the presence of the weak boundary may touch off an isold shwr/tstm across far swrn portions of the area but otherwise dry wx expected. Highs today from the upr 80s to low 90s (mid 80s immediate coast).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The boundary stalls near the VA/NC border tonight/Sunday and is then expected to dissipate by Monday. Meanwhile, mid-upper level high pressure maintains itself over the mid-Atlantic as the sfc high to the north slides farther off the New England coast. One other feature of note is a coastal trough that pushes west and reaches the SE coast Sunday/Monday. The combination of these features will necessitate the need for low end pops (20-30%) across far SE VA and NE NC both days. Dry elsewhere. Light onshore flow should help keep max temps in check. Highs both days in the 80s to around 90. Lows in the upr 60s to low 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Going with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Will have a mainly dry fcst thru the period, except for slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Tue thru Thu fm tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area late Wed into early Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into the region for late Thu thru Fri, as high pressure blds in fm the N. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tue and Wed, in the mid to upr 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri. Lows in the upr 60s to mid 70s Mon ngt, Tue ngt, and Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to near 70 Thu ngt. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak cold front will drop south through the region today with light NE winds developing at all TAF sites. Anticipating a SCT-BKN deck of mid clouds (5-7kft) thru 12z or so...otw VFR today/tonight. The front will dissipate by Sunday/Monday with high pressure building over the area through midweek. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wednesday. There will be a chance for isold shwrs/tstms Sunday/Monday afternoon and evening southeast portions (ORF/ECG) and isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Sub-sca conditions will continue across the waters through at least the next few days. A weak cold front drops into the area this morning, with light/variable winds becoming NE by this aftn. Expect 1-2 waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Onshore flow below 15 kt will then continue into Sun, as high pressure slides by to the NNE of the region. Winds average 10-15 kt for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens and slides out to sea. Weak low pressure areas or possible tropical lows will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc during this period, and will cause long period swells to propagate toward the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-4 ft.
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&& .CLIMATE... The high temperature at Richmond Friday was 99 degrees. This tied the record for the date set in 1975. This also tied the high temperature for the year so far which occurred earlier this month on the 14th. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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