Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250753 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 353 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1018 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE WV/VA BORDER. ALOFT...A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IS ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC HI BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX TDA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 35-40% BY THIS AFTN. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO NR 90. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TNGT WHICH WILL HELP TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. A MSTLY CLEAR SKY AND WINDS AOB 5 KT WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN INTO MON AS A WEAK FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE NW. PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION SUN. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW WILL PUSH PWATS TO AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES SUN AFTERNOON WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES PROGGED AOB 60 PCT. WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SFC TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ATTM SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTM. A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND MODERATING THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPS MON COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY BUILDING OF HEIGHTS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION, WITH A WAVY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NEAR CLIMO ON TUE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH WARMING HEIGHTS ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, MID TO LATE AFTN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD AT LEAST TYPICAL ISO TO SCT CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES NORTH OF THE AREA IN NNW FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP CLOSE TO CLIMO (30-40%) DURING THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON FEATURES TO OUR NNW CAN BE ASCERTAINED. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT WINDS AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ARE INDICATED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC POSSIBILITIES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES ACRS THE WATERS THROUGH TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS TO ESE WNDS TDA...W/ SPEEDS BLO 15 KT. CONTD LGT WNDS TNGT THROUGH SUN W/ SFC HI PRES JUST OFF THE CST. SLY WNDS PTNTTLY INCRS TO LO END SCA SUN NGT...THEN DCRS AGN ON MON. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU THE PERIOD WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ PRIMARLY 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS/SAM NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...ALB/WRS MARINE...ALB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.