Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291603 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1103 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A complex weather system over the Midwest and Northeast States will affect the region through Wednesday. A cold front approaches from the west and crosses the Mid Atlantic States Wednesday night. High pressure slowly builds into the area Thursday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Made adjustments mainly to POPs for the rest of the day based on current trends. The CWA has become warm sectored and precipitation has decreased in coverage. Winds will be quite breezy from the south with gusts to 25 to 30 mph in open areas. As a weak upper level impulse moves through have precipitation increase slightly midday and early afternoon across central and eastern Virginia. Have a chance for showers north of a line from Emporia to Newport News with mainly dry weather continuing to the south. Have likely POPs through early mid afternoon north of a line from Farmville across the northern neck to Salisbury. Precipitation amounts will be no more than a tenth to a quarter inch with highest amounts to the north. Knocked temperatures down slightly due to the effect of cloud cover but it will still be quite mild. Most locations reach the mid to upr 60s with some 70 degree readings over southside Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina. Highs will hold in the lwr 60s along the immediate coast and over the Lower Eastern Shore.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid-upper level moisture largely departs early tonight...leaving lo levels moist. Winds to lower...and potential exists for lo cigs/vsbys developing...esp inland. Otherwise...PoPs to be 20-30% w/ lows in the u50s-l60s. A second s/w will be tracking NE in SW flow aloft...initially invof TN/OH Valleys by late tonight...then to the local area by Wed afternoon. Modest instability at best ahead of that system by Wed afternoon...mainly E of I 95. Developing area of shras expected over the higher terrain to the W Wed morning...which spreads to the E by late Wed. Potential for moderate/heavy RA and isold T the farther E the systems gets. Highest PoPs W and central locations Wed...then shifts E by late Wed evening. Otherwise...mostly cloudy inland (highs Wed in the u60s-around 70F)...VRB clouds at the coast (highs Wed in the l-m70s). After shras/possible isold T in the evening (highest PoPs E of I 95)...clearing out W-E after midnight Wed night. Lows in the u40s W to u50s at the coast. Cooler/dry wx expected Thu w/ WNW winds. Sunny to partly cloudy w/ highs in the m-u50s...except l60s in far SE VA-NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The extended period is expected to begin with cool high pressure gradually building across the Southeast Conus. This will result in dry conditions, with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Sky cover is expected to be mostly clear, however, increasing high clouds are possible Saturday. Forecast lows Friday morning range from the mid 30s to around 40, followed by highs Friday in the low/mid 50s. Slightly cooler Friday night and Saturday with lows ranging from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s along the coast, and highs around 50. There is the potential for highs to remain in the 40s Saturday if thicker high clouds arrive earlier. GFS/ECMWF diverge Saturday night through Sunday night, with the GFS depicting a progressive nrn stream wave tracking across the region, while the ECMWF shows a phased system lifting ne through the Ohio Valley. At this time forecast PoPs are ~30%, which is slightly above climo. Model differences continue into Monday, but the consensus is for a drier pattern. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Starting w/ VFR conditions as cigs lowering to 3-6kft across the TAF sites this morning. SCT shras tracking through ern VA-lower SE MD. Low level jet in place w/ strongest winds generally from 1-2kft...will have LLWS (except at ECG) until 13-15Z/29. Additional shras midday/afternoon...taper NW to SE during the late afternoon/evening. Breezy...w/ S gusts of 20-25 kt inland and 25-30 kt near the coast. LIFR/IFR conditions (in ST and patchy fog) by late tonight as winds subside and mid-upper level moisture clears out. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are expected into Wed night with another (better) chance of RA by Wed afternoon/evening. Clearing out/VFR conditions return Thu-Fri. && .MARINE... A trough pushing through the Ohio Valley will cause an increase in wind speeds across the marine area today, reaching 15-25kt with gusts up to 30 kt over the ocean. Waves in the Bay build to 3-4ft, with 5-7ft seas in the ocean (highest n). The trough lifts newd through New England tonight with the wind becoming sw to w and diminishing to 10-15kt. Waves in the Bay subside to 2-3ft. However, seas remain 4-6ft. SCAs for the Bay/Rivers/Sound come down by 7 pm. A cold front is expected to push through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and then push off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late Wednesday night. The wind should shift to the south Wednesday into Wednesday evening and increase to 15-25kt. It is likely that another round of SCAs will be necessary for the Bay/Sound/rivers, while seas may not drop below 5ft (especially n) between the two events. Therefore, have extended SCAs for the ocean into Wed night. The wind becomes westerly at 10-15kt (minimal CAA) behind the front late Wednesday night into Thursday as the front shifts offshore. A nw wind of 10-15kt should prevail Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus. Seas subside from 3-4ft to 2-3ft, with ~2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...ALB/LSA SHORT TERM...ALB/JAO LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB/SAM MARINE...JDM

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