Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310111 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 911 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN DROP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO FEATURE 1024+MB PRES CENTERED WELL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FM THE ERN GRT LKS SW THRU THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. LOW PRES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NE INTO IL/IN OVERNIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING NE INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. CLOSER TO HOME, ANOTHER DRY, MILD EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPR 60S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPR LVL RDGING WILL SHIFT FARTHER E INTO THE ATLC WHILE UPR LVL TROF (UPR LVL LO PRES) SLIDES FM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF CST STATES. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM TROF...WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO AND ACRS THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL W OF THE AREA SUN AND SUN NGT...AND LIMITED FORCING/LIFT...HAVE MAINLY 20-30% POPS ACRS NRN AND WRN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNY AND WARM ON SUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 70S TO UPR 80S. DEEP SSW FLO WILL PROVIDE INCREASING MOISTURE MON THRU TUE. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING MON AFTN...THEN DROPPING ACRS THE AREA MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...THERE WILL BE BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPLY LATE MON THRU TUE...DUE TO GOOD LIFT ALNG THE BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF .50 INCH TO 1.00 INCH OVR MOST OF THE CWA. PARTLY SNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MON THRU TUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 70S TO UPR 80S MON...AND IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S TUE. LOWS SUN NGT AND MON NGT IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST WED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WED AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD THROUGH FRI. TO THE WEST OF THE STALLED FRONT AND SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOCATIONS OF ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL CAUSE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPINNING AROUND THE TROUGH TO BE SQUEEZED UP THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE MID TO END OF THE WEEK TIMEFRAME. 12Z MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE SE STATES DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A SFC LOW TRAVELLING UP THE SE/CAROLINA COASTS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALOFT OF 5-15/20KT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL THUS LEAN THE FORECAST TWD A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE POP AT ANY GIVEN TIME. WITH THE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S WED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S THU/FRI...MID-UPPER 80S SAT (AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WEATHER MAP HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DOMINATING THE WEATHER PICTURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND SE/S WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GROUND FOG DEVELOPED AT SBY PHF AND ECG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT THAT WIND WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT A RECURRENCE. ECG COULD BE AN EXCEPTION WITH THE WIND OFF THE WATER AND THE WIND SPEED AND RH AT 23Z A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL FOG COMPARED WITH OTHER SITES. INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT SBY AND TEMPO IFR AT ECG. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT WITH LESS CUMULUS PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. S/SW WINDS BECOME SE IN THE AFTN AT ORF PHF AND ECG. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS MAINLY NW OF THE TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN MARGINAL CIGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS. CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... A DIURNAL SURGE IN ONSHORE/ESE WINDS AOB 15KT CONTINUES THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA FLAGS. WAVES 2-3FT AND SEAS 2-4FT THIS AFTN/EVENING. WAVES IN CHES BAY SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT... WHILE SEAS PERSIST AT 2-3FT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FLUCTUATING AROUND 4FT FROM 10-20NM IN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WRN APPALACHIANS ON SUN...THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER REPEAT OF INCREASED/DIURNAL SSE WINDS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN SRN CHES BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK. SCA FLAGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SAGS SWD ON MON AND ONE FINAL DIURNAL PUSH IN S WINDS AOB 15KT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE WATERS FROM N TO S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. OVERALL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT (AOB 10KT) WITH VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION FROM SW MON NIGHT TO SE TUE. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD TUE NIGHT AND EXITS THE SRN WATERS BY WED MORNING...STALLING ACROSS THE SE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS RANGING FROM N-ENE AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 2-4FT FROM 0-10NM FROM SHORE WITH SEAS 4-5FT FROM 10-20NM. THE BUILDING SEAS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY THE FULL MOON ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS DURING HIGH TIDE THAT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW MINOR FLOODING LEVELS. WAVES ON CHES BAY WILL AVERAGE 1-2FT WED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...UP TO 3FT AT TIMES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD

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