Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
521 FXUS61 KAKQ 031810 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 110 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF RT 460 GIVEN THE RATHER LOW FLOOD GUID...SATURATED GRNDS FROM RECENT SNOW MELT AND THE MDT TO HVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO. EXPECT AREA RIVERS TO EVENTUALLY RISE TO NR OR ABOVE BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. MADE SOME GRID ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS BASED OFF THE 10AM OBS AND 12Z DATA. WARM FRNT SLOWLY MAKING IT NORTH INTO SERN VA...BUT GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THOSE NORMALLY WEDGED AREAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HOLDING STDY IN THE 40S ALONG WITH LGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. THUS...LOWERED TMPS MAINLY NW OF RIC AND ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS. OTW...PRTL SUNSHINE IS ALLOWING TMPS TO JUMP TO NR 70 OVR THE SE. EVERYTHING WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTRN SO THE INHERETED GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA WEST TO EAST AFTR 18Z. MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL AFTR 21Z WITH CHC TSTRMS. FA STILL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY STRNG WIND GUSTS AS THE HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS A LINE OF CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVENING. HIGHS RANGE FROM NR 60 NW TO M70S SE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 997 MB LO PRES CENTERED OVER NRN IN WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE S. THE LO PUSHES OFF TO THE NE TDA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLC. WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAJORITY OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNG WITH BEST MOISTURE PROFILES NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. POPS RAMP UP FM W TO E THRU THE DAY...WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS BY MID AFTN. QPF UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD (THRU 6 PM)...WITH ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL. MAINTAINED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH JUST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY APPARENT. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE PSBL ESPECIALLY OVER SE AREAS WITH DECENT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS. BREEZY CONDS ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH THIS AFTN. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT THEN SLOWS DOWN AS IT DROPS THRU THE REGION LATER TNGT/THU. CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS FOR TNGT...WITH A SLGT CHC OF THUNDER THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE SE INTO THU AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE/NR THE CST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NW AREAS. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF A BIT FOR THU/THU NGT WITH MAJORITY OF NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING PCPN CONTINUING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TOTAL QPF FM TDA THRU FRI MORN IS EXPECTED TO BE 1.0-2.5 INCHES ON AVG ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS THU RANGE THRU THE 50S...LOWS IN THE LO/MID 30S THU NGT. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN TO MIX IN WITH THE -RA LATE THU NGT...BUT NO BIG IMPACTS ANTICIPATED ATTM WITH SFC TEMPS STAYING AT/ABOVE FREEZING AND THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRING AS THE PCPN WINDS DOWN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE FRI...WITH DRY WX EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNG. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HI PRES WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT MORN...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN...AS A LO PRES AREA MOVES ENE OUT OF THE GULF TO OFF THE GA/FL CST. AT THIS TIME...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS TRACK THE STORM NE WELL OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SUN THRU MON MORN...WITH THE GFS TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE CST THRU THIS PERIOD. GOING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST SLGT CHC FOR RAIN OVR THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES. THAT STORM MOVES AWAY INTO THE ATLC DURING MON. MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG UPR/SFC LO PRES WILL DRIFT EAST THRU THE GRT LKS MON THRU TUE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA (ESPLY NRN AND WRN COUNTIES) LATE MON THRU TUE...WITH A SLGT CHC FOR PCPN. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI NGT...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S SAT NGT...AND IN THE 30S SUN NGT AND MON NGT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...SUN...AND MON...AND IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 21Z ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN VA PIEDMONT ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS RAIN ARRIVES...CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO MVFR/IFR RANGE AFTER 21Z (AT KRIC)...WITH LOWER CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING EAST THROUGH 02Z (WHEN RAIN SHOULD REACH KECG). RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST ON THU. LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUING FOR SE COASTAL TERMINALS KORF/KPHF/KECG. DRY WX AND VFR CONDS IS EXPECTED FOR FRI/SAT. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT SUB-SCA E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH LLVL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SSE. PRE- FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES THE REGION LATE TNGT INTO THU MORN. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU LATE WED NGT OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SND...AND THRU THU FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS (EXTENDED SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING). NWPS AND WNAWAVE SIMILAR IN DEPICTION OF BUILDING SEAS THIS AFTN/EVENING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE OUTER MARKERS OFFSHORE OF THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN CAA THU NGT INTO MIDDAY FRI...DUE TO INCREASING NW OR N WINDS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN BETWEEN HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WEST AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WINDOW OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. N/NE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SFC LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT (5-8 FT ON AVERAGE, HIGHEST SOUTHERN WATERS). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-064- 067>069-075-076-080>083-509>522. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632- 635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM/MAM MARINE...MAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.