Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271753 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 153 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FOG HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND LOW STRATUS OVER SE VA/NE NC IS BREAKING UP INTO STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTERED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL`S CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. ALTHOUGH CRISTOBAL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NE AT THIS HOUR...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MORE OF A NWD PATH THIS AFTN. OUTER BANDS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING INTO THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE NC DUE TO THE SHIFT IN CRISTOBAL`S STORM TRACK LATER TODAY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S/LOWER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL HELP TO KICK CRISTOBAL NE AND FRTHR AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WITH CDFRNT DSPTG ACROSS NRN AND WRN VA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY LIMITED MSTR WITH THE BNDRY AS IT CROSSES THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND THURS MORNING. OTHR THAN SOME CLOUDS...KEPT A DRY FROPA ACROSS THE RGN TONITE. LOWS 65-70. BNDRY SLOWS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE VA/NC BRDR THURSDAY AFTN. MODELS OFFERING UP DIFFERENT SOLNS WRT TO HOW MUCH MSTR IS AVBL FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ALONG IT AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NRN NC. GFS THE WETTEST WITH THE NAM/SREF RTHR DRY. FOR NOW...BEST SPRT FOR ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION WUD BE ACROSS SRN THIRD OF FA (MAINLY S OF RT 460). HIGH THURS 85-90...XCPT L-M80S ERN SHORE AREAS. LOWS THURS NIGHT IN THE 60S. HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS NRN STATES FRI WITH BNDRY STALLED OVR NC. AGAIN...SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN THE BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. GFS IS QUICKER...NAM/SREF SLOWER WITH THE ECMWF A COMPROMISE. THUS...XPCT ISLTD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN TIER CNTYS LATE. DRY NORTH. HIGHS 80-85 NORTH...M-U80S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HI PRES EXITS OFF NEW ENG FRI NGT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF WCNTRL ATLC THROUGH THE WKND. A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACRS THE FA FRI NGT THROUGH SAT MRNG W/ PSBL ISOLD PCPN. OTRW...BALANCE OF THE PD FM SAT THROUGH SUN WILL BE PC...WARM AND MORE HUMID. A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW LATE SUN. INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS CLOUDS AND POPS BY LATE SUN (W)...THEN ACRS THE REST OF THE FA INTO MON. LO AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT TO RMN IN PLACE INVOF SE CONUS STATES EARLY NEXT WK...RESULTING IN CONTD WARM/HUMID WX OVR THE RGN FOR EARLY SEP. HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND SAT/SUN... L/M80S AT THE CST. BY MON/TUE...HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U80S. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PD FM THE U60S TO L70S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK SFC HI PRES LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. ASIDE FM SOME SCT CU AT ~2-5K FT THIS AFTN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND CRISTOBAL. N/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT THIS AFTN WILL BCM LGT/CALM OVRNGT. DID INCLUDE SOME IFR AT SBY WHERE IT IS MOST FAVORABLE...AND WITH A SIMLAR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD AS YESTERDAY PLUS SKC AND LGT WINDS EXPECTED...LO VSBYS ARE LIKELY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 13-14Z. WEAK COLD FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA ERLY THU...WITH WINDS BCMG NWLY YET STILL AOB 10 KT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGION FRI/SAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AM FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 06-12Z BOTH FRI/SAT. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID MS VLY CONTINUES THE PERSISTENT NE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THAT FRONT STALLS JUST S OF THE WATERS BY THU AFTN/NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E INTO NEW ENGLAND. MOST SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER INCREASE IN SEAS (HIGHEST SRN PORTION...POSSIBLY TO 7-9 FT?) WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO THU AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. AFTER CONTINUED NE WINDS TODAY...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIPS S ACROSS THE WATERS THU...DIRECTION BECOMES N-NE THEN E INTO FRI (W/ A POSSIBLE SURGE IN SPEEDS TO JUST BELOW LOW END SCA...ESP NRN PORTIONS THU MORNING). A TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE WINDS TO MOSTLY S OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE COAST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAS MARINE...ALB/JDM

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