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320
FXUS61 KAKQ 260102
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
902 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will move off the coast overnight.
A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday. An upper level
low will track across the area later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cool air wedge in place across the area as high pressure drifts east
across New England. Latest models not as bullish with the wdsprd
moisture as drier air continues to filter south along the coast.
TSCTNS indicating the moist E-SE flow off the ocean will keep BKN-
OVC conditions across the piedmont with SCT clouds east to the Ches
Bay/Tidewater/nrn Outer Banks to CLR skies along the eastern shore.
Expect a dry evening. Some weak lift noted across the swrn most
zones (FVX-AVC) for some spotty light rain/drizzle to develop
after 06Z. Lows 55-60, 50-55 across the lwr Md eastern shore given
a mstly clear sky. Some patchy fog possible in areas that do clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high moves off the New England coast Monday with the next front
approaching from the west late. Upper ridge flattens which should
slow the advance of the front and serve to break down the cool air
wedge during the afternoon. TSCTNS show the BKN clouds hold firm
west of I95 through much of the day with SCT-BKN clouds to the
east. Pcpn wise, light rain/drizzle across the swrn zones early,
a several hour break in pcpn chcs through 18z, then slght chc
shwrs once again mainly west of I95 ahead of the approaching
front. Highs in the mid to upr 70s.

Models continue to show a strong cold front crossing the area late
Monday night and Tuesday. Weak s/w energy progged along the boundary
as it crosses sern zones Tuesday afternoon. Good feed of moisture
along and ahead of it with PW`s climbing to around 1.75 inches.
Instability is marginal, but kept low chcs for thunder with the
actual fropa. Kept likely pops with the time frame for the most
wdsprd pcpn coming late Mon nite and Tue morning. Models show drier
air filtering across NWRN zones Tues afternoon to end pcpn. Kept
high chc pops across the SE. Lows Mon nite in the 60s. Highs Tues in
the 70s. QPF btwn 1/2 to 1 inch.

Forecast for the mid week period becomes problematic and will all
depend on the track and available moisture associated with a deep
anomalous upper level low progged to drop south from the great lakes
region. The cold front clears the coast Tues night so expect pcpn
to wind down across the fa with chc pops lingering along the coast
through the nite. Lows range from the mid-upr 50s across northern
zones to the mi-upr 60s sern zones. Chc pops Wed for now with the
highest pops across the SE. Highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term forecast is complicated by the presence of an upper-level
cutoff low over the eastern CONUS for the duration of the period.
This will lead to below normal temps and frequent chances for rain.
Difficult to time the precip this far out in time but at this point
the best chances will be Wed night/Thu (30-50% pops). As the cutoff
low slides NE through the period, the chances of rain will slightly
decrease through the end of the week. As for temps, highs will be in
the low/mid 70s each day with lows ranging from the mid 50s over the
Piedmont to the mid 60s near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the Northeast States will move off the coast
overnight. Light and variable winds will become southeast or south
on Monday. A moist layer around 3-5K ft was producing cloudiness at
that layer mainly over inland locations. As moisture increases
through the period ahead of a complex frontal system...expect that
MVFR cigs over the Piedmont will expand slowly eastward. During the
00Z TAF period...only have RIC being affected. The development of
these conditions is difficult to time but for now held them off
until late Monday morning per guidance. No significant precipitation
chances are in the forecast through the period.

OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives
Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. Periods of
IFR can be expected especially at RIC and SBY. Showers will linger
through mid week as an upper level low tracks across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Mid
Atlc/NE states with a frontal boundary well south of the area. The
high will slide offshore tonight into Mon with onshore
flow continuing. 5-10 kt winds tonight increase to 10-15 kt Mon
as the pressure gradient increases slightly ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front drops into the area Tue with
winds becoming light/variable by late Tue as the frnt stalls and
weakens in the vicinity. Waves of low pressure then form along
the frnt through midweek, with winds staying blo sca thresholds.
Expect mainly 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-4 ft seas over
coastal waters through this period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Cashie River at Windsor remains in minor flood stage. The
river is forecast to slowly fall below flood stage before Midnight.
See FLSAKQ for details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...