-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
243
FXUS61 KAKQ 140637
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into midweek with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible each day before the heat
rebuilds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Majority of showers taper off this evening, though some
  isolated showers and storms will be possible into the
  overnight hours, mainly north of Richmond.

- Flood Watch has been extended through late tomorrow night and
  expanded for most of our VA counties just inland of the
  Chesapeake Bay, including the Tri-Cities area of central VA.

A weak front remains draped across the I-95 corridor. this
boundary and a myriad of remnant convective boundaries from
earlier convection has served as the main trigger for rather
slow-moving convection this afternoon into this evening. These
storms have produced extremely heavy rainfall that have
prompted the issuance of multiple flash-flood warnings, and some
significant flooding in the Petersburg/Colonial Heights area
earlier this afternoon.

Storm coverage has begun to taper off this evening as expected
with loss of daytime heating and as the environment gets
convectively turned over from the ongoing convection. As we
have seen the past few nights, patchy fog is possible,
especially in areas that saw rainfall today along the I95
corridor, south central VA, interior NE NC along and west of the
Chowan River and much of the VA piedmont. Temperatures will
drop into the lower 70s overnight tonight and cloud cover should
scatter out briefly before a possible stratus deck forms early
tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday, resulting
  in greater coverage of showers and storms. A Flood Watch may
  be necessary for portions of the area.

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday with additional rounds of
  showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area.

The current unsettled pattern we are in will continue over the next
few days, with ample instability and minimal inhibition. Shear will
continue to be a limiting factor though with strong daytime heating
preceding storm development, DCAPE values will range between 700-
1200 J/kg which could result in isolated downbursts. With the
steering flow being almost non-existent, the main threat will be
flash-flooding. Slow moving storms, combined with PW values of 2"+,
will lead to extended periods of heavy rainfall for areas across our
forecast area. As with the challenge of today, the scattered nature
of convective development that is expected will hinder the ability
to pinpoint exactly where this heavy rainfall will set up. With the
antecedent rainfall we have seen over the past few days, flash-flood
guidance continues to be very low, so in more vulnerable areas such
as the Richmond metro it will not take much rainfall to lead to
flooding. WPC has placed a majority of our forecast area in a Slight
ERO on Monday, and scattered instances of flash-flooding are
possible. For that reason, the Flood Watch has been extended
through tomorrow evening over the same area, with the remainder
of the I-95 corridor in VA added, as well as Prince George up to
the interior portion of the northern neck. A Marginal ERO is in
place across eastern North Carolina through the Hampton Roads
and into the Eastern Shore.

The front will stall to our northwest on Tuesday, bringing
another day of afternoon storms that could bring gusty winds and
heavy rainfall to areas. WPC continues to highlight our area
with at least a Marginal ERO for now for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. By
Tuesday, more cloud cover is expected as the front is forecast to be
a little closer to the area, so highs are forecast to only reach the
upper 80s with temperatures nearing 90 degrees in the NE NC and SE
VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Stagnant pattern continues mid to late week with daily shower and
  storm chances

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Looking ahead to mid-week, scattered convection will continue each
afternoon. With upper ridging building the region starting Thursday
through the weekend, convective coverage could diminish to widely
scattered or even isolated, but have maintained scattered PoPs for
the time being. If this pattern holds, will likely need to decrease
rain chances for late week and into the weekend. With the
possibility of decreased cloud coverage and showers, combined with
the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower
90s Thursday through Saturday, with Friday possibly seeing mid 90s
across the area. Heat indices, especially on Friday, could eclipse
105F+ so Heat Advisories may be required at least in the SE/S
portion of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

Complicated aviation forecast this morning with a mix of flying
condition across the region. TAF sites are all VFR for now but
expect MVFR and IFR to overspread the area in the next few
hours. Highest confidence in IFR CIGs is at RIC. ORF and ECG
have prevailing MVFR with TEMPO groups to cover IFR toward
sunrise. Light and variable winds this morning become S or SE
into this afternoon. Another round of showers and storms are
likely this afternoon and evening. Included PROB30 groups at
each terminal this afternoon. Another round of precip is also
possible after 00z tonight but lower confidence in timing and
location.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected to recur Tue-Wed, along with the
potential for early morning fog/stratus. Shower/storm coverage
is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

High pressure extends SW toward the northern Mid-Atlantic
coast this afternoon. A trough remains inland over the
Piedmont, with weak low pressure well E of the VA coast. The
wind is primarily E to SE 5-10kt this afternoon, with seas
~2 ft, and waves 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft in the Ches. Bay.

A similar pressure pattern continues this evening with a SE wind
around 5-15kt. High pressure retreats E of the Canadian
Maritimes later tonight into Monday. Meanwhile, subtropical high
pressure rebuilds off the Southeast coast through the middle of
the week. This will allow the wind to become S to SW 5-10kt
early in the week, with a mid- aftn to early evening sea-breeze
influenced shift to SSE Monday and Tuesday. The pressure
gradient tightens Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure
tracks NE of the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. This
will potentially bring SCA conditions in a SW wind, with the
best chc in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes by Friday as the
pressure gradient relaxes due to a weakening front dropping to
the region. Seas will mainly be ~2ft through Tuesday and then
2-3ft by Wednesday, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the
Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by Wednesday
night and Thursday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Aftn/evening showers/tstms will have limited coverage over the
marine area this evening, with higher chances during the
aftn/evening hours Monday through Wednesday. The main hazards
with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting,
and reduced vsby in heavy rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...RHR/NB
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...AJB/AJZ