-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 142337
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM EDT FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA DUE TO MIN RH VALUES OF
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST LATE THIS
AFTN. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW S-SW FLOW TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND KEEPING WINDS BREEZY OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE
PRECIP-FREE...HOWEVER THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE
OR TWO ACROSS THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND OFF THE NE NC COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT (NO HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT). OVERALL...THE BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND ANY FALLING PRECIP SHOULD
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE DRY SFC CONDITIONS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SE COAST SFC HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT (UPPER 30S FAR WRN AREAS
OF THE FA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DRY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE FA BY SAT MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY
SAGS SWD DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SKIES BREAKING UP BY THE AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE
AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES TO READINGS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

A COLDER AIRMASS GETS DRAWN INTO THE NE CONUS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SAT NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SE STATES ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL START TO MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE TWD THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
ON MORE WARM FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS SAT NIGHT. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE CTRL PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THIS BOUNDARY...STEADY RAIN
WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUN MORNING. 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT A COLD AIR
WEDGE MAY BUILD DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR
NW AND NRN AREAS OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HIGH IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN ON MON...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE COLD AIR TO RETREAT NWD AND
ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA BEFORE
PRECIP-TYPE HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME WINTRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING ROUGHLY
BTWN 850-750 MB LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE ARE ENOUGH
DISCREPANCIES BTWN NAM/GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS TO MAKE FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING PRECIP-TYPE. TAKING THE CURRENT MODEL DATA INTO
CONSIDERATION...WILL TENTATIVELY LEAN TWD THE COLDER WEDGE
SOLUTION AND CONFINE SLEET OR A RAIN/SLEET MIX TO THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA FOR NOW.

HIGHS SUN IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. HIGHS MON IN THE
LOW-MID 30S NW TO MID-UPPER 40S SE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S MOST AREAS/LOW-MID 40S FAR SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SUN
NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STEADILY PULLS OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DIMINISHING FROM NW-SE. GENERALLY EXPECTING
RA OVER SE PORTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS ENDING
AS A MIX OF -SN/IP...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN FOR NRN PORTIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFF THE COAST. NE FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(MID 40S N...TO AROUND 50 S) ALONG WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING.
WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MILDEST DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PRODUCING SSW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SKY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP
ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ABOVE GUIDANCE (DUE TO SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW) WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO MID
60S S. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AT 00Z. SLIGHTLY GUSTY WNDS TONIGHT WITH
S-SW FLOW AND OCNL 15-20 KT GUSTS AND HIGHER. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVG TOWARDS THE REGION WHICH WILL CLEAR
EARLY SAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT THE MOISTURE CLEARS
AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR WX PREVAILS THRU SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
BY LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE
PRESENCE OF A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING
WITHIN THE NOCTURNAL MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE BAY/NRN OCEAN ZONES. A
SSW WIND OF 15-20KT IS EXPECTED IN THE BAY...WITH A 20-25KT SSW WIND
N OF CAPE CHARLES. SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL BUILD TO 4-5FT
OUT NEAR 20 NM. EXPECT A 15-20KT SSW WIND OVER THE S OF CAPE CHARLES
WITH ~3FT SEAS. THE SOUND/RIVERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A 15KT SSW WIND
OVERNIGHT.

THE GRADIENT RELAXES SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE W WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. THIS FRONT SAGS THROUGH
THE REGION N-S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PULLING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A NE WIND WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS. WIND SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACH 25-30KT OVER THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF BAY/SOUND...WITH
20-25KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND RIVERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
TO 6-10FT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT INTO THE MID 70S-MID
80S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN WLY 20 FT WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70
RESULTING IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE (MIXING HEIGHTS ~4500 FT).
THIS WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO
MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. FINE FUELS WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY DRY. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL REEVALUATE NEW DATA TO
DETERMINE IF AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IS REQUIRED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ESS/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...