Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020047 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 847 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES E-NE ALLOWING FOR YET ANTHR NIGHT FOR STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BAY. BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOWS M50S-L60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND THRU FRI. CARRIED OVER THE PTCHY DRIZZLE / FOG THU MORN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...OTW BCMG PT SUNNY. HIGHS M70S ALONG THE COAST...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. PERSISTENT FCST XPCTD UNTIL FROPA FRI NIGHT SO MORE STRATUS/FOG PSBL FRI MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M50S-L60S. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW APPRCHG CDFRNT DOWN WITH FRI LOOKING DRY UNDER PT SUNNY SKIES. AGAIN...KEPT MORNING FOG OVR THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS M70S COASTAL AREAS...ARND 80 WEST OF THE BAY. FROPA W-E ACROSS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...EXITING OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. DECENT SLUG OF MSTR PROGGED AHEAD OF IT BUT WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SLOWED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY CHC EVENING POPS WEST OF THE BAY...THEN KEPT LIKELY POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT SLGHT CHC THUNDER IN ATTM GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF FROPA. LOWS U50S-U60S. MORNING POPS SATURDAY WITH SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTRN. TUFF CALL ON TMPS AS THE STRNGST CAA HOLDS OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT. WEST (DOWNSLOPING) WINDS ALONG WITH INCRG AMTS OF SUNSHINE HELP BOOST TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. FOR SAT NGT/SUN...MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRNT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. HI PRES THEN BLDS INTO THE SE U.S. BY SUN AFTN WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SUNNY SKY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MON WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL TROF OVR THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HI PRES SLIDING OFFSHORE. HI TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LO TO MID 70S. FOR TUE/WED...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND WEAK SFC FRNTAL BNDRY WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LEADING TO A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT BUT EITHER WAY NOT EXPECTING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTM. HI TEMPS BOTH DAYS STILL IN THE LO TO MID 70S WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 50S. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH. AREA OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 04Z AS A WEAK VORT MAX SWINGS OVER THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S/L60S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG. STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT N TO NNE WINDS AND SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THU AFTN. ANTICIPATE MORE FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP ALONG WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE NRN-MOST COASTAL ZONE...NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH 10 PM EDT FOR 4-5 FT SEAS. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT HAVE RESULTED IN 5 FT SEAS AT BUOY 44009. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE THIS EVENING. WILL RE-EVALUATE THRU THIS EVENG AS THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS STAY UP ALL NIGHT THERE. WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE NE/MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THU/THU NIGHT...NLY WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL CONTINUE. SEAS AGAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO 5 FT (BUT MOSTLY 3-4 FT) THRU THIS PERIOD. NEXT COLD FRNT APPROACHES ON FRI...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE SE LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS MAY BLD TO 5-6 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE WTRS BY SAT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRNT SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SAM/DAP MARINE...MAS

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