-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242342
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
742 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass through the region tonight and into
early tomorrow morning. The front will stall south of the region
across the Carolinas through the middle of the week. High pressure
builds into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday before moving moving offshore
Wednesday. The next cold front passes through the region on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered cumulus have formed across the region this afternoon and
are expected to dissipate around sunset. A slight chance of showers
or thunderstorms will remain possible across primarily northern
portions of the region through the first half of the night. Slightly
cooler and a bit more comfortable overnight with lows near 70 to low
70s in the piedmont and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

For Tuesday...The cold front stalls south of the region which will
allow for the continued chance for showers and thunderstorms across
far southern VA and northeast NC. Elsewhere, dry conditions and
mostly sunny skies are anticipated as high pressure influences the
weather pattern. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs ranging
from the mid/upper 80s across the north to near 90 south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short term period starts off Tue night with just a lingering small
chance of rain over far SE areas during the evening hours with the
lingering frontal bndry sliding south of the area as high pres
builds over the NE states. Expect NE flow under a partly cloudy sky
with low temps mainly in the upr 60s/lwr 70s.

Mainly dry wx then for Tue with just a slight chance of an aftn
shra/tstm as sfc hi pres slides off the NE coast. High temps in the
mid 80s. Slight chance PoPs again for Thu ahead of an approaching
mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Return of sly
flow will allow for high temps near 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The preference in the long term is to lean toward the ECMWF
solution. This favors a slower cold fropa on Friday, followed by dry
wx prevailing this weekend into the first of next week as the front
dissipates to our south and a broad trough develops over the eastern
CONUS. Have solid chc PoPs (40-50%) on Friday with the fropa.
Limited chc PoPs (30-40%) to southern areas on Saturday, then dry
all areas next Sunday/Monday. Max temps through the long term will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Little to no
convection expected tonight although some isolated activity is
possible over the Piedmont. A weak cold front crosses the
region late tonight and into tomorrow morning shifting winds to
the W/NW for Tuesday.

Outlook: There will the continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms across south central VA and NC on Tuesday, but VFR
conditions should dominate through this period. A weak cold front
pushes into the area for the mid week period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds 5-15 kt, except 15-20 kt off the NC OBX currently ongoing
across the marine area. Seas 2-3 ft; waves 1-2 ft. A cold front to
the NW slowly approaches through the evening then sags south through
the marine area overnight into Tues morning. SSW winds 10-15kt
expected ahead of the front this evening, then as the front passes
overnight, expect winds to veer around to the N/NW Tues morning at
10-15 kt, but taking until 8-10am to do so off the NC OBX. This
surge should stay below SCA levels Tues morning, but some gusts to
20 kt may occur for a short time over the middle Ches Bay. Seas 2-4
ft; waves 1-2 ft perhaps briefly up to 3 ft early Tues.

Behind the front, winds are expected to become onshore Tues aftn
into Wednesday, then become SSE again on Thursday. Seas 2-4 ft;
waves 1-2 ft. The next frontal boundary is expected Friday. SW winds
10-15 kt become N/NW again Friday night/Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will approach minor flood thresholds early Tuesday
morning around Bishops Head. Therefore...have issued a coastal
flood statement. Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain
below minor flood thresholds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJB/JEF
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...