Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 242013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
413 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A cold front crosses the local area through this
evening...becoming stalled over the Carolinas for Sunday
into Monday. High pressure builds into the local area behind
the front tonight through midweek.


Latest weather analysis features surface cold front from
Eastern New England down along the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain,
then snaking back into the TN River Valley. Regional radar
mosaic showing two distinct areas of convection attm. First, a
line of showers and thunderstorms over the western Carolinas
into western VA along the cold front. The second along a pre-
frontal trough over E NC, in the presence of an incoming
shortwave pushing from the GA toward coastal NC/SC.

A moderately humid afternoon across the eastern portion of the
area, even as modestly drier air begins to filter in NW of
Richmond metro area behind the cold front. Latest mesoanalysis
showing 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across North Central into
Northeastern NC, with some lingering CIN on the order of 50-100
J/kg that still needs to be overcome to realize convective
potential. HRRR/SPC-WRF both show 2 areas of convection merging
and becoming a single, narrow line of storms moving SW to NE
across NC from late aftn through this evening. Thanks to drier
air filtering in to the NW and warm/capped airmass over
northern/central coastal zones, expect that much of our area
will escape these showers and storms. However, have bumped to
high end chance to likely range over the far southeastern tier
of our area from 22z/6pm through mid-evening, with lower POPs
up toward the I-58 corridor and over toward Tidewater/Hampton
Roads (Dry for metro RIC and points north). Rain chances for far
SW zones now through early evening.

Convection tapers off across SE sections early in the overnight.
Thereafter, clearing as cooler, drier air filters in from the
northwest behind the front for tonight. Early morning lows in
the l60 NW...m-u60s inland...l70s SE. Dewpoints will lower into
the l60s NW to l70s far SE. Any convection SE wanes late
tonight...w/ any lingering spotty rain along the Albemarle Sound
coming to an end early Sun morning.


Front will become stalled along the NC coast on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a broad upper trough aloft will build across the
eastern CONUS for much of the first half of next week. This will
bring a dry and markedly more comfortable stretch of days for
Sunday through Tuesday, with cooler and drier days and cool,
comfortable nights. Highs Sunday in the the m-u80s (l80s
beaches) Clear to mostly clear sky and comfortable Sun night
with lows in the u50s NW to m-u60s SE.

Upper Trough will drop across the Great Lakes on Monday, with
the lead shortwave dropping across the Ohio Valley Sunday night
into Monday. This feature will push the secondary cold front
toward the local area from early Monday...dropping across the
area Monday afternoon and night. Will result in conditions
becoming partly cloudy. An isolated shower or two is possible
with the frontal passage along the coast. However, given dry
antecedent airmass, expecting little more than some increasing
clouds and will keep pops in silent range for now. Highs in the
low to mid 80s (u70s at the beaches).

Even cooler behind the secondary front. After a cool, pleasant
night Monday night with lows in the 50s to mid 60s, look for
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. A second, stronger
vort lobe will drop across the area in NW flow aloft on Tuesday.
Despite dry airmass, this feature could prove strong enough to
squeeze out a shower or thunderstorm. Kept pop in slight chance
range for now.


The secondary cold front crosses the area Mon night. Isolated SHRAs
possible near the coast (esp on the eastern shore)...otherwise
the fropa should be dry due to a lack of significant moisture.
Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s
most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue
night/Wed behind a mid- level trough pushing offshore. Dry again
for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to
develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s.


Cold front crossing SERN VA / NE NC late this afternoon and
evening. Two areas of convection noted to the south and west.
Both of the areas are forecasted to drift into NERN NC counties
through 00Z ahead of the fropa. Have carried VCSH at ECG btwn
22Z- 02Z for now but thunder a possibility there as the
convection apporaches. Otw, dry air filtering in behind the
front keeps it dry with VFR conditions through the forecast

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions through the mid week period as high
pressure builds back into the region.


No changes to SCA headlines this morning. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt
w/ gusts to 30kt will continue thru mid/late morning before
diminishing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft currently will
build to 4-5 ft south/5-6 ft north around daybreak, then gradually
subside back below 5 ft by late morning south and later this
afternoon north. An extended period of benign marine conditions is
then expected from tonight through the middle of next week. Winds
become N/NW around 10 kt behind a cold front tonight/Sunday morning,
then variable less than 10 kt later Sunday into Monday. Waves 1-2 ft
over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters.




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