Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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299
FXUS61 KAKQ 181857
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through
Friday and gradually slides offshore next weekend with
temperatures gradually moderating.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Update...Frost Advisory allowed to expire at 900 AM. Dewpoints
have warmed at to above 35 degrees.

Previous discussion...
The current surface analysis depicts 1028mb high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic. A clear sky, calm conditions,
and a dry airmass have combined to produce ideal radiational
cooling conditions across most of the local area with
temperatures generally 35-40F from the Piedmont to E-central VA
and interior NE NC across to the Lower MD Ern Shore. Farther SE,
temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s for coastal SE
VA/NE NC where a light N wind persists. The frost advisory for
the Piedmont remains on track, with some patchy possible to the
E of the advisory over rural portions of the interior coastal
plain. High pressure, surface and aloft will remain over the
region today producing very pleasant conditions with a sunny sky
and light wind. The airmass modifies and high temperatures
range form 65-70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains over the area tonight as a trough
swings across the Great Lakes temporarily suppressing the
mid/upper high farther south across the Gulf Coast states.
Radiational cooling should again be rather ideal tonight with a
clear sky and calm conditions. Lows will be a few degrees higher
tonight ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s inland to the upper
40s/low 50s for coastal SE VA.

The mid/upper high rebuilds across the region Thursday and
Friday and surface high pressure continues to prevail. Expect
sunny/clear and dry conditions to continue with a light wind.
Highs Thursday reach 70-75F as the airmass continues to modify.
By Friday, highs reach the mid 70s after morning lows in the
mid/upper 40 inland, to the low/mid 50s for coastal SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually pushes off the coast over the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with sky conditions no
worse than partly sunny. Much disagreement in the models by the
first of next week with respect to the arrival of the next cold
front. ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS with its deeper trough
aloft and a potential sfc low developing along the coast. Will
show chance PoPs Monday/Tuesday, then another potential cool
down by the middle of next week. Highs Sat-Mon in the mid-upr
70s except 70-75 along the coast. Lows Sat nite 50-60. Lows Sun
nite in the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows Mon night in the upr 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains over/near the area through Fri
night. An upper trough crosses the Midwest/Ohio Valley through
tonight and then passes through the region Thu/Thu night...while
mid level ridging flattens into W-NW flow during this timeframe.
The end result will be SCT cirrus streaming overhead late
tonight into Thu with the passing through, and additional SCT
altocumulus or altostratus developing near far SE VA/NE NC
coastal areas where ENE winds persist on Thu. Stacked high
pressure holds strong Fri into the weekend. Dry weather and VFR
conditions will prevail the rest of today through Sun night.
Next weather system expected to impact the region Mon/Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
A large area of high pressure remains centered over the Mid-
Atlantic states this afternoon. The axis of the ridge stretches
Farmville to just south of Wallops Island. South of this line
seeing generally ne flow and north of the line the flow is more
swrly. But in all cases the winds are generally light, less
than 10 kt. With the lighter winds, the seas are also generally
a ft or less on the bay and 2 - 3 ft on the ocean.

This strong high pressure system will remain entrenched across
the region on Thursday with light winds and the benign seas. A
cold front will slide across the region on Friday morning with a
wind switch to the nw and increase in speed to 10 - 15 kt with
seas also increasing to 1-2 FT on the by and 2-4 Ft on the ocean
waters. However the bump up in winds will be temporary as the
strong surface high reestablishes its control over the region
for Saturday and Sunday with a return to benign conditions over
the area waters.

The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not
come until early next week as a strong cold front slowly moves
across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Expect and increase
in southerly winds ahead of the front and strong nwrly winds
behind the front.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KAKQ radar will be down through Wednesday, October 18th for
radome repairs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...ESS
EQUIPMENT...



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