Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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812
FXUS61 KAKQ 260554
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
154 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through
Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday.
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will
push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts
and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to
indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort
data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont
but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...vfr conds through 06z taf pd.
Few- Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high
pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the
offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15
kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday
with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off
the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas
to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10-
15 kt Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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