Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






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