Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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413
FXUS61 KAKQ 150805
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary resulting
in periods of unsettled weather through early in the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak s/w aloft moving E and well away from the nrn Mid-Atlantic
coast...taking -RA off the coast. Widespread cloudiness remains
in its wake as sfc hi pres sits nearly stationary from Great
Lakes-New England.

Models suggest drying from the NNE today...however while CIGS
likely improve today...difficult to determine just how much
clearing occurs. Will have cloudy conditions to start this
morning...then turning partly sunny...especially N and NE. In
general...far WSW zones would have the highest chance for
remaining mostly cloudy. Highes from the m40s N to around 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models continue to begin spreading moisture back NNE into the
region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge
axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant
pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 20-40% PoPs
across the piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through
the day Mon. Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over
the E/NE so some lows in the u20s will be possible from the nrn
Neck to the eastern shore...with lows in the m30s-around 40F
elsewhere. Thicknesses show p-type mainly RA...though w/
temperatures aob 32F far NNE...could be light mixed p-type far
NNE should pcpn make it that far E (late tonight/early Mon).
Cloudy Mon with CAD setup but low PoP (generally aob 20%).
Highs Mon in the l-m40s NNW to around 50F far SE. Strong sfc
lo pres moves NE to the wrn Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a warm
front N of the local area. Still uncertain on how much (if any)
sun develops so while temps moderate, highs may not get out of
the 50s (will have l60s SE for now). PoPs mainly 20-40%
Tue...highest NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended
period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for
showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat.

Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the
upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres is centered off the New England coast as of 06Z/15
w/ a surface ridge axis extending to the SW into the Mid-
Atlantic region. A stationary front is situated across SC...w/
weak sfc lo pres off the Outer Banks. Aloft...s/w is moving off
the nrn Mid- Atlantic coast taking -RA off the coast. Cigs are
expected to lower to MVFR/IFR through (early/mid) morning. Vsby
is generally expected to remain aoa 4sm. Cigs are expected to
lift N-S w/ some clearing expected by aftn. Sfr hi pres will
remain over the region Sun night into Mon...although mid and
high clouds are expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes
into the FA later Mon night and lifts N of the region Tue. This
could produce some MVFR cigs late Mon night into Tue morning. A
cold front approaches from the NW Tue night and crosses the
area Wed. This will bring a chc of rain along with degraded
flight conditions. High pressure is expected to return Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA will remain in effect for the srn two coastal zns (656/658)
until 7 pm this evening, due to seas near 5 ft. Otherwise, a
weak northerly surge is expected late tngt into early Sun aftn
morning, as sfc high pressure builds fm the midwest into the
lower Great Lakes. But, winds are expected to stay just below
SCA criteria. A warm front will lift north through the area
during Tue, with winds becoming SSW ahead of the next cold
front which crosses the region Tue night into Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ/ALB
MARINE...MAS



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