Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 152104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE CST TNGT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH FM THE MS VALLEY EWRD TO JUST W OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
TUE. CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY TNGT...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS
TWD MORNG. LO TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE GETTING E OF THE MTNS
DURING TUE...BUT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE/LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS MOVNG ACRS THE CWA FM LATE MORNG THRU EARLY
EVENG. RAINFALL AMTS FM THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN .10 AND
.25 INCH ACRS THE REGION. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE LWR
50S EXTRM NW TO ARND 60 EXTRM SE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
CST TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG...WITH SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S.

WED THRU THU...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW/WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AS SFC
HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS IN FM THE NW. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. COLD AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. COOLER ON THU UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LLVL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AS
1024+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

MEANWHILE, DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER FRIDAY WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY BY LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF
AND OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL BOTH TAKING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SAT NIGHT TO A POSITION OFF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE 12Z/15 GFS HAS ALSO GONE WITH A
WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE PUSHED POP INTO LIKELY RANGE
WITH BOTH THE ANALOGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT
PRECIP OVER THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED, THERE IS
SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN TO END AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SOME RN/SN
MIX OVER INLAND SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH LTL COLD AIR
TO WORK WITH AND WITH UPPER FLOW SEEMINGLY FAVORING A QUICK END TO
PCPN, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR WINTER WX ISSUES ATTM. OBVIOUSLY...
WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL 5-6 DAYS OFF, STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL
FLUCTUATIONS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATA-CU DECK WHICH MADE ITS WAY DOWN THE BAY TO ORF EARLIER IS
PUSHING TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE 925 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE
WLY. THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SBY TO GRADUALLY BREAK SHORTLY AFTER 19Z THEN REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM SUGGESTS SOME FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT SOME MIXING IN THE SW
FLOW MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS COME BACK IN WITH THE SW
FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BKN-OVC040 SPREADING NORTH. RAIN WILL
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING OUT/BREEZY W WNDS TUE NGT
INTO WED W/ MNLY VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AVG MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT TNGT INTO TUE MRNG AS WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE SSE.

WINDS INCREASE LATE TUE THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS BECOME W-SW TUE NGT BEHIND THE
FRONT...SPEEDS AVG 10 TO 20 KT...THEN MNLY W WNDS WED...BECOMING NW
BY THU. SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CRIT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAM







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