Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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608
FXUS61 KAKQ 121134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..AKQ.



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