Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270126
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
926 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING HIGH PRS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH A SFC
TROF IVOF THE I81 CORRIDOR WHERE SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.
MODELS MOVE THIS TROF EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT KEEP THE BEST SPRT FOR CONVECTION TO THE N & E WHERE
A WEAK S/W PROGGED TO TRACK ERLY MON MORN. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT WRT PCPN MOVING INTO THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
ECHOES WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FRTHR EAST INTO THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...
NOT READY TO DROP POPS FROM FCST BUT WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST
CHC SHWRS (30-40%) ACROSS NRN NECK INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR
08Z. OTW...SLGHT CHC POPS MAINLY N OF A I64 / RT 360 LINE. DRY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS UPR 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...
COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EXITING THE COAST TO BEGIN THE
DAY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO BEGIN THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
SLOWLY PUSHES IN OUR DIRECTION. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER
THE CAROLINAS INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
MODEL THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE
IS CO-LOCATED WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS
BUMPED UP TO 40-50% RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT WILL MAINTAIN
20-40% POPS TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS MONDAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND UPTICK IN LLVL MOISTURE, BUT STILL NEAR
CLIMO NORMS; GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT, AND HAVE THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE POP OVER THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE
CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY
SOUTH OF US-58).

WEDNESDAY...
WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UPWARD AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
BUILDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW, COURTESY OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL RAMP UP A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY ON SSW FLOW. ANY
RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST, WITH THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BLOWING UP A TSTM OR
TWO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME, AND HAVE CAPPED POPS IN SILENT RANGE AOB 14%.
OTHERWISE, HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...INITIALLY BRINGING ISOLD TSTM CHANCES TO THE FA THU
AFTN...THEN A CHANCE OF SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS THU EVE/NIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO
OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. HOT AND HUMID THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NOT AS WARM FRI-
SUN WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS MAINLY 85-
90...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS NRN
VA THROUGH THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AFTER 28/0500Z TONIGHT IN W-NW
FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER. SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD TAPER OFF AND DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY CROSSING CNTRL INDIANA) IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING MONDAY
AFTN... AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS DIGGING JUST OFF THE COAST.
THIS SET-UP SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AXIS IN THE AFTN...WITH THE FOCUS FOR NEW
GENERATION PUSHING FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. WINDS BECOME SLY BY AFTN WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT AT KRIC
AND KSBY...WHEREAS WINDS REMAIN SELY AT KPHF/KORF/KECG WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT DURING THE SAME TIME. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER FAR SCNTRL VA INTO NC TUESDAY AFTN. KECG MAY
SEE AFTN CONVECTION ON THIS DAY...OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES SHOULD
BE DRY/RAIN-FREE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH MON. S-SE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS
AOB 15 KT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU MIDWEEK
WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THU-FRI.
WAVES 1-2 FT; SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...ALB/JDM



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