Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 031901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE STALL FRONT DOWN ACROSS
NCENTRAL NC...SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND MANTEO. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL KY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE
DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL VA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12 NAM HAS SLOWED WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE
SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SO FOR THE UPDATE HAVE SLOWED THE
INCREASE IN THE POPS TO THE NE DURING THE DAY...KEEPING THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE DRY THROUGH 6 PM WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALSO WAS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SKY
COVER COVER WITH THE SLOWERS PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY ACROSS NRN NC. N OF THE FRNT OVER THE FA VSBYS ARE REDUCED
TO 1-3 MILES SO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THRU THE ERLY MORNG HRS AS
WINDS ARE CALM/LIGHT AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNG ASIDE FM CSTL PORTIONS
OF NE NC. THE DRY WX MAY CONTINUE THRU THE MIDDAY HRS...BEFORE A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W LATE IN THE
DAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SW AREAS. TSTMS PSBL
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS BLO NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2
IN.

AREA OF PCPN ACROSS SW AREAS THIS AFTN SHIFTS NE THRU THE FA THIS
EVENG AND TNGT AS THE SFC FRNTAL BNDRY STARTS SLIDING NORTHWARD.
LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC
FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE
PSBL SAT AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHES FM THE W AND
DEVELOPS A SFC LO THAT RIDES THE FRNT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 30-50%
POPS ACROSS THE FA...CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
AS THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PCPN SUN ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS. QPF UP TO 1 IN
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, OUR
CURRENT PATTERN OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY, SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
IN THE PERIOD ARE ON MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE
PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PER BOTH THE
12Z/02 ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL.
ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED
HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY
WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INTO THIS AFTN.
MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC
RGN FM LT TDA THROUGH SAT. THE FNTL BNDRY TO THE S (NOW) RETURNS N
BEGINNING LT TNGT...CONTG INTO FRI. SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD BY LT
THIS AFTN...CONTG INTO SAT. A SECOND ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PCPN PSBL
SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS
THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM
INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT OVER THE WTRS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WKND.
FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED OVR THE NC CSTL WTRS...AND RMNS THERE THIS
MRNG...BEFORE PULLING BACK N LT TNGT INTO SAT. PRIMARILY NNE WNDS
BECOMING ESE TDA (SPEEDS AOB 15 KT)...THOUGH VRB INVOF NE NC WTRS.
THE BNDRY SINKS BACK S LT SAT INTO SUN AS WK SFC LO PRES EXITS S
OF NEW ENG...RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING FM MNLY SSW (SAT) TO NNE
(SUN). THROUGH THE WKND...CONDS RMN SUB-SCA...W/ WAVES IN THE BAY
AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE OCN WTRS AVGG 2-4 FT...AND WIND SPEEDS
MNLY AOB 15 KT. GUSTY WNDS/HVY RA WILL BE PSBL IN ANY TSTMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...ALB


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