Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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281
FXUS61 KAKQ 141717
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1217 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of low pressure systems will pass to the north of the
area through Friday. Weak low pressure develops off the coast
Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday
night. High pressure returns Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Increased temps a bit this aftrn based on current temps, amount
of sun and downsloping winds. Mstly sunny. Highs 50-55.

PVS DSCN:
High pressure centers itself over MD tonight with increasing
mid/high clouds. Colder once again with lows from the low 20s
N-W to the low 30s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure gets squeezed to the NE Friday morning as low
pressure and an upper trough pivot through the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, a weak wave of low pressure is expected to develop
off the NC OBX around midday Friday, then quickly track NE
welemperature falling into the lower 40s.l off the mid-Atlantic
coast Friday night. Things will have to come together just
right for phasing between the Great Lakes trough and the coastal
low to produce possible -RA/-SN showers over the Eastern
Shore/Northern Neck Friday aftn/early eve. Right now am carrying
slight chc PoPs (~20%) for these areas as 00Z ECMWF/RGEM and to
a lesser degree than 00Z NAM are lending some credence to this
scenario. Otherwise, Friday will be dry with a partly to mostly
cloudy sky. Highs from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE coast.

Dry and chilly Friday night behind the departing system. Lows
in the 20s except lwr 30s SE coast.

Highs pressure builds across the SE states Sat / Sat nite,
promoting dry wx. Highs in the mid-upr 40s. Lows Sat night in
the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model timing and moisture differences make for a low confidence
forecast early next week (due to a split flow). The one factor that
does seem to be in agreement is that temps remain warm enuf across
the local area for any pcpn to fall as liquid.

A warm front is progged to lift north of the area Sunday with svrl
srn stream s/w`s progged to lift NE from the deep south thru Tue.
Slght chc pops across the piedmont Sun aftrn. Highs in the upr 40s-
mid 50s.

ECMWF/Canadian have wetter solutions but with timing differences
while the GFS is drier and keeps the deep moisture south of the
local area until late Tue. Thus, keeping some continuity with the
current forecast results in keeping chc pops Sun night into Tue for
now. (All liquid pcpn with no higher than 40 pop). Dry Wed.

Lows Sun nite in the upr 30s NW to mid 40s SE. Highs Mon/Tue in
the 50s. Lows in the mid 30s NW to lwr 40s SE. Highs Wed in the
upr 40s-lwr 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. SCT-BKN high
mid level clouds this aftrn will dissipate this evening as high
pressure builds over the area. The gusty WNW wind diminish this
aftrn as well. Developing low pressure along the se coast will
allow a BKN mid level deck to push north along coastal sections
Fri morning. Any pcpn associated with this systm is expected to
be after 18Z Fri and mainly along the eastern shore.

OUTLOOK...
Quick shot of snow shwrs and MVFR CIGS psbl at SBY Fri aftrn
and evening as coastal systm makes closest apprch. High pres
returns to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong sfc low pressure moving off the NJ coast with pressure
falls on the order of 6mb/6hr centered across the northern
coastal waters but shifting off to the E. Maintaining the SCA
headlines for winds mainly 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt (a few
gusts to 35 kt have been observed from time to time at elevated
sensors but not enough to warrant Gales).

Once the system exits farther offshore this afternoon, high
pressure will begin to push ESE and into the local area from the
midwest. The high weakens a bit while doing so this aftn and
evening and this should allow WNW winds to drop off later today
to below SCA thresholds by later aftn. On Friday, the region
will be between a front to the south and another northern stream
low pressure system. Winds will be generally light with some NE
flow gradually turning to the SW and then NW by Friday night.
There does look to be a reinforcing shot of colder air late Fri
night into early Sat and this could lead to more SCA conditions.
High pressure returns on Sunday with the flow turning back to
the SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low water advisory has been issued for the lower Bay, James &
York Rivers, and portions of the coastal waters for the midday
low tide cycle. Waters levels will reach -1.0 to -1.5 ft MLLW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634-636-638-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>638-656-658.
     Low Water Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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