Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK
AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR
LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO
DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER
IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN
VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND A WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY LATE AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PUSH SEAS TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ


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