Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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860 FXUS61 KAKQ 121939 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through next week with scattered thunderstorms each day. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 120 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Hot and humid inland this afternoon with heat indices in the lower 100s. - Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon with locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible. A surface boundary was located near the Richmond Metro this afternoon which has served as a focal point for convection. CAMs have vastly underdone coverage and timing of convection this afternoon. As such, have increased PoPs across the area to 25-40% (away from the coast) with scattered showers and storms expected. Will note that these PoPs are above NBM guidance but may still be too low in spots. Given 3500-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 1.6-1.7" PWATs, and very slow storm motions, locally heavy rain and flash flooding is possible. The near-term greatest flash flooding threat is the Richmond Metro where a Flash Flood Warning has been issued given congealing storms over the city. However, given that it is only 1 PM (as of writing this discussion) there is plenty of daylight left for additional storm development with additional flooding possible through this afternoon. WPC has maintained a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall across most of the inland areas today. Will note that CAMs show the potential for a line (or cluster) of storms moving into the Piedmont this evening. While this may be too late, if rounds of showers and storms continue into the evening, a locally higher flash flooding threat would be possible. Additionally, given the very high instability and DCAPE of 1100-1200 J/kg, a few strong to severe downbursts are possible. However, given the very weak flow aloft, current thinking is that most storms should be of the pulse variety. Brief strong wind gusts are the main threat from water- loaded downdrafts this afternoon and early evening. SPC has maintained the western tier of counties in a Marginal Risk of severe. Otherwise, temps as of 1 PM ranged from the mid 80 to lower 90s with dew points in the 70s and heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with maximum heat indices in the lower 100s away from the coast are expected. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the 70s. Some fog and low stratus are possible, especially in areas that see rainfall during the afternoon/evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered storms are expected Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. - Locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding are possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. - There is a Marginal risk for a few severe storms on Sunday with damaging winds the primary threat. A moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the region into next week with daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening scattered storms. SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg will likely continue through at least Mon with weak shear aloft. As such, while widespread, organized severe weather is not anticipated at this time, a few strong to severe storms will continue to be possible (similar to today). For now, SPC has a Marginal risk (level 1/5) for damaging winds on Sun along and west of I-95. However, given greater storm coverage on Mon, would not be surprised if Mon gets a severe threat in future updates. PoPs increase to 40-50% Sun afternoon and 50-65% across the NW half of the area Sun evening. The higher PoPs in the late afternoon and evening are due to CAMs showing a line of storms forming off the lee trough and moving east into the NW half of the FA. A similar situation is expected on Mon with PoPs again increasing to 50-65% in the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The difference on Mon is that a larger portion of the area is likely to experience storms. A cold front becomes stationary and washes out across central VA on Tue. As such, scattered storms will again be possible with the highest confidence across far southern VA and NE NC. Given the wet antecedent conditions and day after day of locally heavy rain, flash flooding will continue to be a concern through early next week. WPC has a Slight risk for excessive rainfall (ERO) across the NW Piedmont on Sun with a Marginal ERO covering the rest of the NW half of the area to roughly the I-95 corridor. WPC also has a Marginal ERO across nearly the entire FA on Mon and the SW third of the FA on Tue. Will reevaluate a potential Flood Watch tonight to allow for an assessment of how much rain falls today and to see if there is a stronger signal for heavy rain/flooding on the 00z CAMs. Outside of daily convection, typically Summer heat continues with highs in the mid 80s NE to lower 90s SW (most in the upper 80s to lower 90s) Sun and Mon and upper 80s to lower 90s everywhere on Tue. Given dew points in the mid-upper 70s each day, heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s is expected all three days. That being said, current model guidance suggest we should remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight lows in the low-mid 70s are expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Seasonally hot weather continues through next week. - A wet pattern continues with daily, mainly diurnal chances for scattered storms through the week. Aloft, a ridge builds over the East Coast during the middle of the week before sliding offshore by late week. At the surface, a washed out front remains across the FA through late week with a cold front approaching by next weekend. As such, expect temps to warm from the upper 80s to lower 90s on Wed to the lower 90s Thu and low-mid 90s Fri. Temps in the lower 90s are expected Sat. Dew points remain in the 70s through the week with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s Wed and Sat and lower 100s on Thu and Fri. There does appear to be some potential for Heat Advisory criteria by Thu and Fri with the best chance on Fri (heat indices potentially 105-109F). Additionally, the wet pattern continues with daily chances for mainly diurnal afternoon and evening scattered storms through the week. Given the recent rainfall and the rainfall expected to fall before the middle of the week, localized flooding looks to continue to be a concern. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 153 PM EDT Saturday... Scattered convection this afternoon has led to degraded flight conditions at RIC and ECG. TEMPOs are in place for the next hour and will need to be extended if the convection maintains itself through 19Z. Confidence is low in the timing and location of additional storms developing near ORF, PHF, and SBY but they cannot be ruled out. Storms should decrease in coverage heading into the evening. Outside With light winds expected overnight, patchy fog/low stratus is possible. Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are expected through the weekend and into early next week, along with the potential for early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE...
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As of 339 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Benign marine conditions will continue through mid-next week. High pressure will remain dominant and maintain a weak gradient across the region. The wind is expected to be SE 5-10 kt Sunday with a slight diurnal increase during the late aftn/early evening hours as we are seeing today, and then mainly S to SW 5-10 kt early next week. By Wednesday afternoon, guidance is hinting at the development of a low along a front just to our north. The gradient between the feature and the high in the western north Atlantic will tighten, resulting in increasing winds. Wednesday night through Thursday night will be the best chance to see SCA conditions at least in the Bay. We will continue to monitor any trends in this timeframe, and adjust the forecast as necessary. Sub-SCA conditions will likely return by Friday. Each day will feature at least isolated to scattered storms, with the main marine hazards being brief strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and blinding downpours that will greatly reduce visibilities. Seas will be mainly 2-3 ft and waves in the Bay will be 1 ft, with the occasionally 1-2 ft seas during the afternoon wind increase. By mid-week, seas will build to 3-4 ft as winds increase and remain elevated through late week. Waves in the Bay will increase to 2-3 ft.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RHR/NB MARINE...AJZ/NB