Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210802 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area late Wednesday, with strong high pressure building north of the area from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest analysis indicating a broad area of ~1022 mb sfc high pressure centered over the local area. Main concern early this morning is with patchy fog, but for the most part dense fog is not likely (locally the typical rural low lying spots can expect 1/2Sm at times through 12Z). temperatures will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Otherwise for today, expect partly cloudy/variably cloudy skies with decent eclipse viewing expected for the most part this aftn (but it will not be as sunny as yesterday). With some wak upper level shortwave energy currently over IN/OH moving east through the day, should see enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop across the mts then drift e-se across the northern most zones of the fa by arounfd 18Z. Will carry chc PoPs to 30-40% mainly north of RIC, with 20% into metro RIC and dry across the south. Highs upr 80s- lwr 90s except mid 80s at the beaches. Hourly temperature forecast has temperatures falling a few degrees during the eclipse (18/19Z), then rising again through 21Z. Becoming mostly clear this evening/except partly cloudy NE where a 20-30% PoP will be maintained. Warm/humid with lows mainly 70-75 F tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Hot/mainly dry Tues ahead of the approaching cold front. 85-90 F along the coast, 90-95 F west of the bay. Dry most of Tues night except increasing moisture could lead to a few shwrs by daybreak across nrn most zones. Warm with most areas having lows only in the mid 70s. Frontal boundary a bit slower to traverse the fa Wed. This combined with a weak wave progged to move east along it will spread widespread moisture and support likely pops in the afternoon, but probably not much in the morning (especially over the SE). Another round of mdt to hvy downpours possible ahead and along the fropa. Highs mid 80s NW to around 90 F south.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front gradually drops through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Modest ascent accompanies the front within the RRQ of a ~110kt jet over New England along with pw values to around 2.0" (around +1 st dev). The highest PoPs by Wed evening look to focus across srn VA/NE NC where 70% will be maintained, tapered to ~30% across the NW where drier air arrive first. PoPs across SE portions gradually diminish to 20-40% by Thursday aftn. Thunder will be maintained into Wednesday evening, with showers thereafter as stable NE flow prevails in the wake of the front. Drier air gradually filters in from the NW late Wednesday night into Thursday with partial clearing across the nrn tier counties. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 60s NW to the low 70s SE, followed by highs Thursday in the upper 70s to low 80s. ~1025mb (+1 st dev) high pressure builds from the Great Lakes across the Saint Lawrence Valley and into New England Thursday nigh through Sunday. This will result in persistent onshore flow, which combined with a drier airmass will result in a series of pleasant days with highs in the upper 70s at the coast to low 80s inland, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and mid/upper 60s along the coastlines.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Patchy fog/low stratus across the region early this morning, though for the most part only marginal MVFR vsbys have affected TAF sites. Did include some tempo mention of IFR vsbys of 1-2SM in all TAFS except for ORF at some point, mainly focused on 09-12Z. Any morning fog/low cloud burns off 12-13Z with VFR conditions to follow. Isolated tstms in the aftn/evening possible at RIC/SBY but still mainly dry. Continued mainly dry and probably will see a little less in the way of fog/low cloud Tue morning as southerly flow becomes a little stronger. The next cold front approaches the region Wed, and flight restrictions will be possible Wed, mainly in the aftn and through Wed night in showers/tstms. Some showers may linger across SE terminals into Thu morning, but otherwise improving conditions except with a breezy NE flow near the coast Thu/Fri.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis has a high pressure centered over the region. The high pressure moves off the coast Monday through Monday night and a cold front approaches the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday. The front pushes out of the area by Thursday with high pressure building back into the region for the remainder of the forecast period. Obs indicate generally NE/E winds of 5 to 10 knots over the waters with waves of 1 to 2 feet and seas of 2 feet. The flow becomes SE around 10 knots on Monday as high pressure moves offshore. Winds increase and become southerly ahead of the approaching cold front Tuesday through Tuesday night. Winds speeds may approach 15 to 20 knots over the bay and ocean with seas building to 3 to 4 feet, potentially up to 5 feet north/20nm out, and waves building to 2 to 3 feet. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday night. Winds shift to the N/NE behind the front on Wednesday through Thursday around 10 to 15 knots. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...AJB/TMG

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