Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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828 FXUS61 KAKQ 251806 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 206 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the northwest today and remains over the region through Wednesday. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday morning and crosses the area during the afternoon and evening. High pressure returns Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1036mb high pressure centered north of the Great Lakes expands SE over the mid-Atlantic region today. A look at IR/Vis satellite imagery shows a clear sky this morning, with the exception of a small bay streamer from the Lower Ern Shore swd across the mouth of the bay and over VA Beach. This should dissipate by midday with a sunny sky prevailing across the region today. Continued CAA in the wake of yesterday`s cold front will allow for cooler temperatures on the order of 10-15 degrees. 850mb temperatures drop to 0 to -2C across the ne this aftn and 0-4C farther sw. This will result in highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s ne to the low 60s across interior VA/NC. The high continues to build in from the nnw tonight. This appears to be the coldest night through midweek (and probably so far this season), with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s over much of the area to the low/mid 40s for coastal se VA/ne NC. This will bring the potential for patchy frost except along the coast. Some modest mid-level (700-850mb) waa is expected to commence late tonight, which could result in some high clouds across the heart of our CWA. The potential for frost will be less if this does occur. Due to low confidence in widespread frost and in coordination with neighboring offices will not be issuing a frost advisory attm. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Continued cool Wednesday under a partly to mostly sunny sky with highs in the mid/upper 50s ne to low 60s sw. There is the potential for highs to hold in the 50s for the entire area if more cloud cover develops. Shortwave energy will lift through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the trailing cold front approaching from the nw Thursday aftn. Milder Wednesday night with lows generally in the 40s across the area, with low 50s se with increasing clouds from w-e late. Clouds continue to increase Thursday with much of the area becoming mostly cloudy to overcast. Chc PoPs (25-50%) for showers spread across the nrn 2/3rds of the area by afternoon. Moisture is limited with this system, so current QPF through 00z Friday is aob 0.1". Highs Thursday range from the low 60s nw to near 70 se. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front forecast to push across the forecast area to begin the extended period Thursday night. Best dynamics associated with a potent shortwave trough progged to push across the Northeast Thursday night, with modest height falls and moisture return expected over the forecast area. Best chances for showers will be across the northeast forecast area, tapering off to low end chance south and west due to limited moisture/dynamics. The front quickly pushes offshore late Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the west for Friday. Dry with highs generally in the mid to upper 60`s. The next in a series of northern stream disturbances drops across the Great Lakes Friday night and into the Northeast states Saturday. GFS and CMC drop a cold front into the region Saturday and across the region Saturday night. However, the ECMWF is flatter with the shortwave and doesn`t push a front through the region until Sunday night. Will carry a slight chance to low end chance POP`s across the northern forecast area Saturday and along the coast Saturday night, but confidence is not high (hence low POP`s). Highs Saturday expected to push into the low to mid 70`s. Differences in frontal timing will have a drastic impact on temperatures Sunday, and possibly Monday. Have opted for a blend of the guidance until better agreement can be made. Highs Sunday and Monday are forecast in the 60`s. Will keep POP`s silent Sunday and Monday as any frontal boundary will likely be dry. Lows generally in the 40`s to low 50`s through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will prevail over the region this afternoon through Wednesday evening bringing dry and VFR conditions. A light nw wind this aftn will become nne tonight into Wednesday. High pressure slides off the coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and there could be some patchy fog as low-level moisture increases. A cold front then crosses the area later Thursday aftn into Thursday evening bringing a chc of showers. High pressure returns for Friday and then settles off the coast Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... SCA Flags have been cancelled for the nrn Bay zones (n of New Point Comfort) and nrn coastal zones (n of Cape Charles). Previous Discussion... CAA surge will slowly diminish today as high pressure builds into the area from the NW. Seas average 3-5 ft, highest out near 20 nm. SCA`s remain in place for the Ches Bay and coastal waters. Went ahead and dropped headlines across the rivers as high res data appears to be to high with the sustained winds. Data suggests another "minimal surge" across the middle Ches Bay this evening. Kept forecast at 15 kts for now as confidence not high enough to extend the SCA headline past this afternoon. High pressure moves over the waters Wednesday with a north wind at or below 15 kts. Waves 1-2 feet, seas 2-3 feet. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of the next cold front. Flow becomes southerly and increases to 10-20 knots Thursday ahead of the front. A S-SW SCA possible ahead of the front Thursday night. A cold front drops across the waters early Friday with another CAA surge progged behind it. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.