Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 302015 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 415 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become centered across the eastern states this weekend through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Latest wx analysis features persistent trough just inland across the piedmont. Noting renewed convective development along this feature, and farther east across SE VA with strong tstms developing coincident with strong instability and marginal effective shear values. PW values +2 st dev through the afternoon, so any showers/tstms will continue to have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rain, although the forcing is not such to support sustained high rain rates. However, mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km will be a limiting factor to widespread strong storms for the balance of the afternoon. Lingering sct showers/tstms gradually lift ne this evening toward the Ern Shore, then slide offshore overnight. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy and humid with lows in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Similar day weatherwise on sunday as the upper trough over the midwest translates east Sunday into Monday, lingering over the region through much of the week ahead. As such, mainly diurnally driven showers/tstms are favored through the period with PoPs in the high end chance (30-50%) range, highest across the southeast cwa. Under the trough, expect more in the way of clouds in place, and with modest hgt falls, expect temps remain close to normal. Highs Sunday range from the mid/upr 80s north to the low 90s south. The upper trough gradually sharpens across the East Coast Monday and Tuesday. As numerous shortwaves drop out of the Ohio Valley and round the base of the upper trough, expect continued mainly diurnally driven showers and storms. Pcpn chances both days remain highest over se VA/ne NC, so chc pops (30%) will continue there, with slight chc (20%) elsewhere. Highs both days to generally range from the upr 80s to low 90s after morning lows in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary. With sfc high pressure building into New England early in the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90 degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints, and overall precip chances. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Various surface troughs and boundaries will affect the Mid Atlantic States through Sunday. A cold front moves through from the north on Monday. As of 18z...Widespread showers and thunderstorms were developing in and around the TAF sites. This will continue into the evening. Otherwise some MVFR fog is possible Sunday morning. Similar convection can be expected Sunday afternoon. Winds will be light and mainly from the southeast outside of thunderstorms becoming mainly south and southwest on Sunday OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms can be expected Monday. Mainly dry weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday. No significant IFR is expected outside of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term today thru Sun ngt. Winds were NE- SE arnd 5 kt or less early this morning ovr the waters, and will become SE 5 to 10 kt during today, as a warm front approaches and moves into the region. Winds will then become S then SW later tngt into Sun morning, as the warm front pushes off the coast. A cold front will then drop acrs the waters and off the coast Mon into Tue morning. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. Seas will average 2-3 ft thru the period with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG

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