-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE FULL SUN...H85 TMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE U30S TO M40S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS AGREE IN MOVING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE.
LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR 30 SE.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKS FROM
THE NATIONS MID SECTION INTO THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY / FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ORIGINS OF THIS AIRMASS AND THE FACT THAT WE NOW HAVE
SOME SNOW COVERAGE TO THE WEST...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. H85 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY IN L-M30S NORTH
AND M30S-NEAR 40 SOUTH. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS UPR TEENS - M20S. A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS
FRIDAY AS THE HIGHS SHIFTS EAST. HIGHS 40-45.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM EJECTING NE OUT OF TEXAS FRI
NIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF A BIT SLOWER KEEPING PCPN W OF FA FRI NIGHT.
GFS THE OUTLIER AND SPREADS SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z
SAT. KEPT IT DRY BUT INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS U20S-M30S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPS REMAIN AOB NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLN WRT THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM.
LOW PRES PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE MIDDLE/LWR MS VLY LATE FRI NGT...
NE TO JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST BY SUN MORNG. THIS LOW AND AN
ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION SAT THRU SAT
NGT. THE PCPN WILL END OVR SE CNTIES EARLY SUN MORNG...AS THE
FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA EARLY SUN AFTN. HI PRES WILL BLD BACK INTO
AND OVR THE AREA FOR LATE SUN NGT INTO TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG...RANGE FM THE LWR 30S TO THE MID
40S SUN MORNG...THEN RANGE FM THE LWR 20S TO THE LWR 30S MON AND
TUE MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S
SE SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUN... RANGE FM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S MON...THEN RANGE THRU THE 40S TUE.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE HAS ALSO SCOURED OUT AS DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. THIS WILL BE THE
TREND THRU EARLY WEDS MORNING...FURTHER LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT
REGARDLESS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (CLEAR SKIES) AND WET
SOILS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT KSBY TO REMAIN VFR THRU WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEAKENING
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WLY WINDS AOB 10 KT.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 25K FT THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN...SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE...BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A STRETCH OF DRY/VFR WX CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
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COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGH EXISTS
OVER CNTRL VA AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS HAS
PRODUCED WLY WINDS OVER THE WATER EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH
STILL TO THE WEST...SEEING MODEST CAA OVER THE WATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED...SO EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN SUB
SCA. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURN TO THE NW...BEFORE THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TODAY-EARLY TONIGHT BACKING THE WINDS TO
THE SW. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH THE H85 FRONT LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND. THE STRONGEST
CAA WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 15
TO 20 KT OVER THE BAY AND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ATTM THAT THE BAY WILL EXPERIENCE SCA CONDITIONS...BUT LESS
CONFIDENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ERN VA RIVERS. STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MODELS SUGGEST
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SHORTLY THEREAFTER THURS MORNING
(925MB WINDS DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT MID MORNING THURS). LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE RIVERS UNDER SCA CONDITIONS...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON SCA HEADLINES ATTM. ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUND...GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG...SO SPEEDS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. WAVEWATCH ALSO BUILDS SEAS
TO 5+ FT FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES (SOUTH OF THE BAY) THURS LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON (3RD PERIOD)...BUT WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER
GRADIENT...WILL LIMIT SEAS TO 4 FT ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN THURS NIGHT-FRI. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE REGION.
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&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DOX RADAR REMAINS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS PROBLEMS.
LOCAL TELCO CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE PROBLEM. FURTHER UPDATES WILL
BE PASSED ALONG AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM