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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
440 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER
EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN DELAYED. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD OF SLEET EXISTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS.

LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SE US RIDGE REMAINING RATHER
STUBBORN...WHICH IS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION
BACK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE RESULT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET. AS A
RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATION (PRIMARILY SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED
OVER SE PORTIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. COLDER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS
PA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGE TO SN ALONG AND N OF THE
MASON/DIXON LINE AS OF 430AM. LOCALLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S N/NE TO THE LOW 50S S/SW...WITH AREAS OF -RA PASSING
SW-NE FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE ERN SHORE.

A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISS VLY THROUGH
ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY TAS A STRONG
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED, AS STRONG
PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING
THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND
WILLIAMSBURG LINE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING,
HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI
MORNING.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSESUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERION S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY BUT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH S THIS MORNG. VARIOUS BOUNDARIES NEAR THE FRONT
CONTINUE TO CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDS
AT SBY/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOME SOLIDLY IFR/LIFR AS RAIN DEVELOPS.
THE RAIN MIXES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH THE CHANGE OCCURRING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH
MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDS
RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
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A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-9 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE
AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-066-079>082-084-086>094-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/SAM/LSA
MARINE...MAS