Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251942 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 342 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over New England will extend south across the Mid Atlantic region tonight and Monday. A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday. An upper level low will track across the area later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Cool air wedge in place across the area as high pressure drifts east across New England. Latest models not as bullish with the wdsprd moisture as drier air continues to filter south along the coast. TSCTNS indicating the moist E-SE flow off the ocean will keep BKN- OVC conditions across the piedmont with SCT clouds east to the Ches Bay/Tidewater/nrn Outer Banks to CLR skies along the eastern shore. Expect a dry evening. Some weak lift noted across the swrn most zones (FVX-AVC) for some spotty light rain/drizzle to develop after 06Z. Lows 55-60, 50-55 across the lwr Md eastern shore given a mstly clear sky. Some patchy fog possible in areas that do clear. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The high moves off the New England coast Monday with the next front approaching from the west late. Upper ridge flattens which should slow the advance of the front and serve to break down the cool air wedge during the afternoon. TSCTNS show the BKN clouds hold firm west of I95 through much of the day with SCT-BKN clouds to the east. Pcpn wise, light rain/drizzle across the swrn zones early, a several hour break in pcpn chcs through 18z, then slght chc shwrs once again mainly west of I95 ahead of the approaching front. Highs in the mid to upr 70s. Models continue to show a strong cold front crossing the area late Monday night and Tuesday. Weak s/w energy progged along the boundary as it crosses sern zones Tuesday afternoon. Good feed of moisture along and ahead of it with PW`s climbing to around 1.75 inches. Instability is marginal, but kept low chcs for thunder with the actual fropa. Kept likely pops with the time frame for the most wdsprd pcpn coming late Mon nite and Tue morning. Models show drier air filtering across NWRN zones Tues afternoon to end pcpn. Kept high chc pops across the SE. Lows Mon nite in the 60s. Highs Tues in the 70s. QPF btwn 1/2 to 1 inch. Forecast for the mid week period becomes problematic and will all depend on the track and available moisture associated with a deep anomalous upper level low progged to drop south from the great lakes region. The cold front clears the coast Tues night so expect pcpn to wind down across the fa with chc pops lingering along the coast through the nite. Lows range from the mid-upr 50s across northern zones to the mi-upr 60s sern zones. Chc pops Wed for now with the highest pops across the SE. Highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Long term forecast is complicated by the presence of an upper-level cutoff low over the eastern CONUS for the duration of the period. This will lead to below normal temps and frequent chances for rain. Difficult to time the precip this far out in time but at this point the best chances will be Wed night/Thu (30-50% pops). As the cutoff low slides NE through the period, the chances of rain will slightly decrease through the end of the week. As for temps, highs will be in the low/mid 70s each day with lows ranging from the mid 50s over the Piedmont to the mid 60s near the coast.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Drier air from the north continues to filter south along the coast this afternoon. This is resulting in VFR conditions with only SCT SC along the Delmarva, SCT-BKN SC between 4-5K ft ivof the Ches Bay, BKN-OVC SC between 3-5K ft across the piedmont. Nearest MVFR cigs are across the mts. Models now showing only SCT clouds along the coast tonight with differing solutions for RIC. Given the lgt onshore flow and position of the high, decided to keep a BKN SC deck around 4K ft at RIC through the night with SCT SC elsewhere. Fog not expected to be a big issue tonight but can`t rule out some ptchy MVFR VSBYS toward sunrise in areas where it does CLR. Any pcpn is expected to be confined to the mts. OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. Showers will linger through the mid week period as an upper level low tracks across the region. && .MARINE...
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Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Mid Atlc/NE states with a frontal boundary well south of the area. The high will slide offshore tonight into Mon with onshore flow continuing. 5-10 kt winds tonight increase to 10-15 kt Mon as the pressure gradient increases slightly ahead of an approaching cold front. The front drops into the area Tue with winds becoming light/variable by late Tue as the frnt stalls and weakens in the vicinity. Waves of low pressure then form along the frnt through midweek, with winds staying blo sca thresholds. Expect mainly 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-4 ft seas over coastal waters through this period.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The Cashie River at Windsor remains in minor flood stage. The river is forecast to slowly fall below flood stage by late this afternoon. See FLSAKQ for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY...

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