Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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083 FXUS61 KAKQ 200750 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slides off the Southeast coast through the weekend. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Sfc hi pres invof nrn FL attm slides slowly off the SE coast today...providing SW winds and a near copy of conditions as Fri (except temps may 3-7 degs F higher). Other than FEW/SCT CI...SKC and highs from the l-m50s near the bay/ocean and on the ern shore to the u50s-around 60F inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Weak upper level trough slides across the SE states and off the coast tonight-Sun as ridging aloft dominates from the TN-OH valleys to the mid-Atlantic states. Potential for patchy FG late tonight/early Sun...otherwise SCT-BKN clouds (averaging out mostly sunny). NAM has a bit of a cooldown Sun...generally leaned toward the higher guidance (closer to continuity). 00Z/20 GFS coming more in line w/ recent (and slower) ECMWF runs wrt to next front approaching from the W Mon. SSW flow Mon keeps mild wx over the region w/ partly cloudy conditions. Lows tonight from the u20s-m30s. Highs Sun in the l-m50s on the ern shore to the u50-around 60F elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u30s. Highs Mon 55-60F near the bay/ocean and on the ern shore to 60-65F for most other locations.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A storm system tracking across the southern Great Lakes Monday will push its attendant cold front across the local area late Mon night through midday Tue. As stated above...the new GFS a bit slower (closer to ECMWF) wrt timing front (and associated SHRAs) through the FA. Have high chc to likely PoPs for most of the area during the 06z-17z Tue period, then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00z Wed. The remainder of the week should be dry. Lows Mon night mainly in the low/mid 40s. Highs Tue in the low 50s on the ern shore to the 55-62 elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the low/ mid 30s. Highs Wed in the mid 40s on the ern shore to the upr 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Lows Wed night from the upr 20s N-NW to the low/mid 30s SE. Highs ranging through the 40s on Thu, then mid 40s to mid 50s on Fri.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the 06Z TAF period as sfc hi pres to the S dominates. Light SW wind tonight increase to arnd 10 kts Sat. Sfc hi pres settles off the SE coast Sun and Mon w/ SKC and dry conditions continuing. A cold front crosses the region Monday night bringing a chc of showers. Hi pres returns later Tue. && .MARINE... High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the marine area through the weekend with sub-sca conditions continuing. Light S-SW winds through this evening will increase to 10-15 kt overnight and Saturday. Winds diminish again by late Sat, becoming N-NW for a time Sat night and Sunday morning. S-SW around 10 kt then prevail again by Monday. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft. A cold front approaches the region from the west Monday night then crosses the water on Tuesday. There are some timing issues that still need to be worked out amongst the models with respect to whether the front passes first thing in the morning or in the afternoon. Either way, expect SCA conditions to be possible Tuesday with the fropa. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...AJB

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