Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050940 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 440 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DELAYED. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD OF SLEET EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS. LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SE US RIDGE REMAINING RATHER STUBBORN...WHICH IS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION BACK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE RESULT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATION (PRIMARILY SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER SE PORTIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES. COLDER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS PA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGE TO SN ALONG AND N OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE AS OF 430AM. LOCALLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S N/NE TO THE LOW 50S S/SW...WITH AREAS OF -RA PASSING SW-NE FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE ERN SHORE. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISS VLY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY TAS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND WILLIAMSBURG LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING, HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONSESUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15 POSSIBLE FROM INTERION S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S THIS MORNG. VARIOUS BOUNDARIES NEAR THE FRONT CONTINUE TO CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDS AT SBY/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOME SOLIDLY IFR/LIFR AS RAIN DEVELOPS. THE RAIN MIXES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH THE CHANGE OCCURRING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...
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A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-9 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-066-079>082-084-086>094-100. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049- 063-064-074>076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...SAM/AJZ LONG TERM...SAM/TMG AVIATION...MAS/SAM/LSA MARINE...MAS

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