Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221956 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 356 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY. WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE MID TO UPR 80S MON.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE. LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING ~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED. GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630- 631.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...LKB

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