Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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715 FXUS61 KAKQ 032037 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 437 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LATE THIS AFTN...LATEST RDR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING FM NEAR D.C. SW TO JUST W OF FARMVILLE...THEN CONTINUED TO DANVILLE. ELSEWHERE...ISLTD SHOWERS WERE OVR SE VA AND NE NC. WILL HAVE 40-60% POPS INTO TNGT...AS THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...MOVE EWRD THRU THE CWA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...AND THIS AREA REMAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS DECREASE TO 20-40% FM WSW TO NE LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE CST. LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF ECG. WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ

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