Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 091556 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1156 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT FROM MD WSW INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA. EARLIER SHOWERS THAT HAD PRODUCED ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ACRS MAINLY N/NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ARE PUSHING OFF TO THE NE...WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ATTM ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY IS HIGHER WITH DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER MOST AREAS. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO AFTN FCST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH IR SATELLITE GENLY INDICATING THAT CONVECTION OVER SW VA IS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT TRACKS ENE TOWARDS THE AKQ CWA. SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 18Z...THEN HAVE A GENERAL 40%/SCATTERED COVERAGE BETWEEN 18-22Z (EXCEPT ONLY 20% OVER THE FAR SE). AFTER 22Z...RAMP POPS UP TO 50% ACRS THE SE...WITH 40% ELSEWHERE. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL GIVEN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT SUPPORTING STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS ALSO PSBL GIVEN PW`S BTWN 1.5 AND 2 IN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM MID 90S SE TO AROUND 90 F NW....HEAT INDICES STAY BELOW 105 F SO NO ADVSY PRODUCTS NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... FRNTL BNDRY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IVOF DELMARVA PENINSULA AND ACROSS SERN VA ON TOWARD THE NC CSTL PLAIN THURSDAY. KEPT CHC POPS GOING TONIGHT GIVEN LCTN OF BNDRY. LOWS U60S/AROUND 70 F NW ZONES TO M70S SERN BEACH AREAS. AT LEAST CHC POPS THURSDAY...SOME EARLY NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND HAVE BUMPED AFTN POPS UP TO LIKELY ACRS SE VA/NE NC. TMPS HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE/PCPN. HIGHS 85-90. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVG S/W ENERGY NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY THURS NIGHT THRU ERLY FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THIS TREND...INCREASED BOTH CLOUD COVERAGE AND POPS FOR THIS PRD. SLOW MOVG...TRAINING ECHOES COULD PRODUCE LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA THUS QPF HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED. LOWS THU NIGHT M60S-L70S. HIGHS FRI M-U80S. TOTAL QPF THRU FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM BTWN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS NWRN CNTYS...1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS CNTRL SCTNS OF FA TO BTWN 1-2 INCHES ACROSS SERN VA...2+ INCHES PSBL ACROSS NERN NC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRNTL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESE OFF THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE NE U.S. AND DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. SO...WILL ONLY HAVE SLGT CHC POPS AT MOST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA SUN AND MON...BEFORE AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AND MON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT/INSTABILITY AND WEAK TROFS/BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACRS THE AREA. COLD FRONT ON TUE WILL THEN LIKELY TRIGGER SCTD PCPN...ESPLY OVR ERN/SE CNTIES. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN US TROUGH. THE HRRR MODEL NOW SHOWS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING BUT SOME COULD MAKE IT TO KRIC BY MID MORNING. CAN SEE A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY TO FIRE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE BEST CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT EXPECT KORF KECG AND KPHF TO SEE MOST CONVECTION. SINCE IT WILL BE SCATTERED HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WITH ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND A CHANCE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. && .MARINE... ONE FRONT STALLS OUT AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAKER WIND GUSTS. PLAN TO DROP SMALL CRAFT ON THE RIVERS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN TODAY OVER THE OCEAN SO THAT BY LATE THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE NO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK AND NOT CAUSE MORE THEN 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER SEAS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER ONSHORE WIND FETCH. && .CLIMATE... RIC REACHED 100 DEGREES AT 359 PM EDT JULY 8 2014. THE LAST TIME RIC REACHED 100 DEGREES WAS JULY 8 2012 WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103...WHICH IS ALSO THE DAILY RECORD FOR THE DAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JAB MARINE...DAP/JAB CLIMATE...

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