Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192009 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 309 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold high pressure lingers across the deep south through tonight...before gradually sliding off the Southeast coast through the weekend. Light SW flow will result in dry conditions through Monday. A cold front crosses the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest surface analysis places 1030mb high pressure centered over the Deep South/Gulf coast. Aloft, quasi-zonal flow now in place over the eastern half of the CONUS, resulting in deep layered W-SW flow aloft, and a mainly clear sky. Afternoon temperatures averaging low to mid 50s this afternoon, slightly cooler upper 40s/around 50 where deeper snowpack is hanging on across the I-85 corridor and NE NC. Lows modify a bit more tonight, with early morning lows settling into the upper 20s to around 30 for most, slightly colder low to mid 20s where deeper snowpack exists over far SW zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will prevail through the weekend with mostly clear/sunny and dry conditions. The initial high will slide off the Southeast coast Saturday. A subtle trough slides across the northeast Saturday night with a weak backdoor boundary sliding across the Ern Shore. High-res models indicating potential for some developing low stratus/patchy fog possible toward morning across the piedmont. High pressure then rebuilds across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday. Models a bit slower with the upper trough through Tuesday...and thus expect a dry day Monday, and into Monday night, as the upper trough lifts across the Great Lakes. The airmass will continue to modify through the period, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to near 60F inland/Piedmont, and in the low/mid 50s for the Ern Shore and coastal SE VA/NE NC. Lows Saturday night will generally be 30-35F.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A storm system tracking across the southern Great Lakes by Monday will push its attendant cold front across the local area during Tuesday. What remains to be seen is whether this occurs during the morning or afternoon as there`s about a 6-hr difference in timing between the 12z operational GFS and ECMWF. The 12Z GEFS tends to side more with the ECMWF, and so am inclined to think the fropa will be during the midday or afternoon hours at this time. Have high chc to likely PoPs for most of the area during the 06z-18z Tue period, then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00z Wed. The remainder of the week should be dry. Lows Mon night mainly in the low/mid 40s. Highs Tue in the low 50s on the ern shore to the 55-62 elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the low/ mid 30s. Highs Wed in the mid 40s on the ern shore to the upr 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Lows Wed night from the upr 20s N-NW to the low/mid 30s SE. Highs ranging through the 40s on Thu, then mid 40s to mid 50s on Fri.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds across the Deep South through tonight resulting in a SW wind aob 10kt under a clear sky, with VFR conditions to prevail through the 18z TAF period and beyond. Outlook: Surface high pressure gradually settles off the Southeast coast Saturday and Sunday with clear and dry conditions continuing. High pressure slides farther offshore Monday as a cold front approaches from the W. This cold front crosses the region Monday night bringing a chc of showers. High pressure returns later Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the marine area through the weekend with sub-sca conditions continuing. Light S-SW winds through this evening will increase to 10-15 kt overnight and Saturday. Winds diminish again by late Sat, becoming N-NW for a time Sat night and Sunday morning. S-SW around 10 kt then prevail again by Monday. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft. A cold front approaches the region from the west Monday night then crosses the water on Tuesday. There are some timing issues that still need to be worked out amongst the models with respect to whether the front passes first thing in the morning or in the afternoon. Either way, expect SCA conditions to be possible Tuesday with the fropa.
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&& .CLIMATE... Norfolk Top Five Snow Totals for the month of January (2018 currently sits at #4) 14.2/1966 13.8/1955 13.7/1893 12.8/2018*** 12.7/1940 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...

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