Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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787 FXUS61 KAKQ 251958 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 358 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails over the region through Tuesday. A weak front drops into the region Tuesday night, then lingers across the region through most of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Solid heat advisory conditions across the area this afternoon with temps mainly in the mid/upr 90s and heat index values of 105-109. The heat will continue to be the story heading through the evening hours with a lee trough just to our west. The heat aloft will continue to cap the atmosphere for most locations. However...an approaching weak frontal boundary currently touching off convection along the Mason-Dixon Line may push a tstm or two into northern/western counties by late evening (where a SVR Tstm Watch is in effect for Dorchester County, MD until 10 PM). Outside of a stray tstm N/W through early AM, just expecting warm/humid conditions tonight. Lows in the mid to upr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday starts off dry as high pressure continues to dominate. Remaining hot as 1000-850mb thickness values only drop to around 1444m and 850mb temperatures drop only to 21-22C. This supports highs in the mid 90s again. Dewpoints remain in the low/mid 70s with heat indices of 102-108. Will again have a heat advisory for much of our CWA (minus the lower MD eastern shore). The ridge breaks down enough Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening to allow a weak front to drop into the area and shortwave energy to cross the mountains. Models a bit faster in developing tstms across the area by 18Z. Will carry a 30-40% chc of showers/tstms from the Ches Bay on west and also south into NC...with slght chc pops for the rest of the Eastern Shore. The threat of severe wx will be low (marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will be possible in any tstm. Tstm chcs continue Tues nite as the boundary sags south across the area. Best support for tstms shifts towards the coast after midnite. Still warm and humid with lows in the 70s. Westerly flow aloft will allow for the boundary to stall over the region Wednesday/Thursday. Enough moisture and support for chc pops (30-40%) across the area both days. Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be highest across se VA/ne NC with heat indices approaching 105 both afternoons. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast will briefly breakdown and wsw flow aloft will persist Thu night through Sat night...followed by a return to more zonal/westerly flow aloft on Sun. A series of weather disturbances will pass across the region as a thermal boundary/lee trough remains over the area. A cold front is expected to approach the region on Sun. Overall, this weather pattern will provide a focus for thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each passing model run and will therefore maintain more broad brushed POP grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints generally in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample moisture present across the area. Therefore, anticipated impacts from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall due to weak steering flow aloft (20kt average) and strong gusty winds. Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around 100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching 105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conds through the 18z taf pd. SCT cu 4-6kft this aftn/early eve...otrw SCT-BKN AC/CI. Ssw wnds avgg abt 10 kt through the pd. Wrt tstms...very lo chc invof SBY this eve/tngt. A cold front drops into the area late Tue and then stalls ovr nrn portions of the area. A daily chc for aftn/eve shras/tstms can be expected Tue-Fri. && .MARINE... A cold front passes just north of the area tonight and exits the New England coast by morning. A surface boundary is expected to stall across nrn VA/Delmarva and fluctuate in this area through the rest of this week as stacked high pressure remains steadfast over the Southeast Coast. Strongest winds will occur this aftn through tonight with speeds of 10-15kt in a generally s-sw wind direction. Seas of 2-3ft may briefly build to 3-4ft north of Cape Charles Light after midnight into early Tue morning. Waves in srn Ches Bay are expected to do the same...starting at 1-2ft and then building to 2-3ft during the same timeframe. Winds diminish to speeds aob 10kt by Tue aftn and will remain at those speeds the rest of the week. Wind direction will generally be southerly. Persistent westerly/zonal flow aloft will allow a series of weather disturbances to cross the region and keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Seas will continue to average 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. && .CLIMATE... Norfolk reached 100 degrees on consecutive days for the first time since July 22-23, 2011. While its certainly going to be hot thru Tue, climatologically this is the hottest time of the year with several heat waves having occurred in the past that have been more intense than what we will experience. No records were set Monday. * RECORD HIGHS: Records Mon (7/25) Tue (7/26) * RIC: 105 (2010) 100 (1940) * ORF: 105 (2010) 100 (1940) * SBY: 100 (2010) 102 (1940) * ECG: 97 (1949) 97 (1949) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...AKQ

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