Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301950 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT... LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER, WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE COASTAL PLAIN. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO 20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT. OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP AVIATION...SAM/JAO MARINE...SAM

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