Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 251958
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
High pressure prevails over the region through Tuesday. A weak front
drops into the region Tuesday night, then lingers across the
region through most of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Solid heat advisory conditions across the area this afternoon with
temps mainly in the mid/upr 90s and heat index values of 105-109.
The heat will continue to be the story heading through the
evening hours with a lee trough just to our west. The heat aloft
will continue to cap the atmosphere for most locations. However...an
approaching weak frontal boundary currently touching off
convection along the Mason-Dixon Line may push a tstm or two into
northern/western counties by late evening (where a SVR Tstm Watch
is in effect for Dorchester County, MD until 10 PM). Outside of a
stray tstm N/W through early AM, just expecting warm/humid
conditions tonight. Lows in the mid to upr 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday starts off dry as high pressure continues to dominate.
Remaining hot as 1000-850mb thickness values only drop to around
1444m and 850mb temperatures drop only to 21-22C. This supports
highs in the mid 90s again. Dewpoints remain in the low/mid 70s
with heat indices of 102-108. Will again have a heat advisory for
much of our CWA (minus the lower MD eastern shore). The ridge
breaks down enough Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening to allow
a weak front to drop into the area and shortwave energy to cross
the mountains. Models a bit faster in developing tstms across the
area by 18Z. Will carry a 30-40% chc of showers/tstms from the
Ches Bay on west and also south into NC...with slght chc pops for
the rest of the Eastern Shore. The threat of severe wx will be low
(marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will
be possible in any tstm.
Tstm chcs continue Tues nite as the boundary sags south across the
area. Best support for tstms shifts towards the coast after
midnite. Still warm and humid with lows in the 70s.
Westerly flow aloft will allow for the boundary to stall over the
region Wednesday/Thursday. Enough moisture and support for chc
pops (30-40%) across the area both days. Highs reach the low to
mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be highest
across se VA/ne NC with heat indices approaching 105 both
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast will briefly
breakdown and wsw flow aloft will persist Thu night through
Sat night...followed by a return to more zonal/westerly flow
aloft on Sun. A series of weather disturbances will pass
across the region as a thermal boundary/lee trough remains
over the area. A cold front is expected to approach the region
on Sun. Overall, this weather pattern will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the
forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each
passing model run and will therefore maintain more broad brushed
POP grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints generally
in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample
moisture present across the area. Therefore, anticipated impacts
from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall due to
weak steering flow aloft (20kt average) and strong gusty winds.
Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the
lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around
100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching
105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in
the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches.
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conds through the 18z taf pd. SCT cu 4-6kft this aftn/early
eve...otrw SCT-BKN AC/CI. Ssw wnds avgg abt 10 kt through the pd.
Wrt tstms...very lo chc invof SBY this eve/tngt. A cold front
drops into the area late Tue and then stalls ovr nrn portions of
the area. A daily chc for aftn/eve shras/tstms can be expected
A cold front passes just north of the area tonight and exits the
New England coast by morning. A surface boundary is expected to
stall across nrn VA/Delmarva and fluctuate in this area through
the rest of this week as stacked high pressure remains steadfast
over the Southeast Coast.
Strongest winds will occur this aftn through tonight with speeds
of 10-15kt in a generally s-sw wind direction. Seas of 2-3ft may
briefly build to 3-4ft north of Cape Charles Light after midnight
into early Tue morning. Waves in srn Ches Bay are expected to do
the same...starting at 1-2ft and then building to 2-3ft during the
same timeframe. Winds diminish to speeds aob 10kt by Tue aftn and
will remain at those speeds the rest of the week. Wind direction
will generally be southerly. Persistent westerly/zonal flow aloft
will allow a series of weather disturbances to cross the region
and keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each
aftn/evening. Seas will continue to average 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.
Norfolk reached 100 degrees on consecutive days for the first
time since July 22-23, 2011.
While its certainly going to be hot thru Tue, climatologically
this is the hottest time of the year with several heat waves having
occurred in the past that have been more intense than what we
will experience. No records were set Monday.
* RECORD HIGHS:
Records Mon (7/25) Tue (7/26)
* RIC: 105 (2010) 100 (1940)
* ORF: 105 (2010) 100 (1940)
* SBY: 100 (2010) 102 (1940)
* ECG: 97 (1949) 97 (1949)
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>025.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>017-
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048-060>062-