Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261740 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday afternoon and crosses the area during the evening. High pressure returns Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc hi pres remains in place from SE Canada swd to the Carolinas late this morning. Meanwhile...lo pres was tracking into the wrn Great Lakes. Other than SCT-BKN mid/hi clouds spreading ewd from that lo pres system...expecting mainly SKC the rest of the day. Winds remaining lgt and mainly NE-SE. Highs from the u50s NNE to the l-m60s SSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The surface high gradually pushes offshore tonight as low pressure tracks toward the Great Lakes. The surface ridge axis remains near the coast much of the night, so lows will still be cool under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky ranging from the upper 30s over the Lower MD Ern Shore to the low 40s elsewhere. Shortwave energy will lift through the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday, with the trailing cold front approaching from the nw Thursday aftn and crossing the area Thursday evening. Clouds increase early Thursday with much of the area becoming mostly cloudy to overcast. Chc PoPs (25-40%) for showers spread across the nrn half of the area by afternoon. The better potential for showers will be with the front Thursday evening, with 40-55% PoPs from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore, and 20-30% elsewhere. Moisture is limited with this system, so current QPF through 12z Friday is aob 0.15". Highs Thursday range from the mid 60s nw to near 70 se. The front pushes offshore late Thursday night into early Friday morning with high pressure returning by aftn. Clouds are expected to decrease Friday with most of the area becoming mostly sunny by late morning and aftn. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday morning will be followed by highs in the low 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure slides south of the region Saturday, centering along the Southeast coast. Shortwave ridging aloft builds over the eastern US. The result will be deep layer southwest to west flow and warming temperatures. 850Mb temperatures warm to around 12-14C (+1 standard deviation) Saturday. Have trended temperatures warmer, with highs generally in the low to mid 70`s. Cooler Eastern Shore. Medium range guidance now in better agreement with pushing a northern stream shortwave across the Northeast states Sunday. A dry cold front is progged to drop into the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, but not before temperatures warm into the mid (possibly upper) 70`s. Trough axis pushes offshore Sunday night along with the dry cold front. Upper/surface high pressure returns to the region Monday. Highs in the mi to upper 60`s. Heights begin to build again across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as upper level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico builds northward. The result will be another warming trend with highs back into the upper 60`s to low 70`s Tuesday. Mild overnight temperatures expected through the period, with lows generally in the upper 40`s to low/mid 50`s. The exception will be Saturday night, when lows are in the mid to upper 50`s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A ridge of high pressure extending south of Canada and into the Mid Atlantic states is expected to continue to influence the weather through much of the 18Z TAF period. The ridge will continue to shift toward the coast this evening. A cold front will approach the area tomorrow afternoon, bringing the potential for a few showers. Seeing clear skies across all TAF sites this afternoon with only a bit of stratus across portions of Central VA. Winds continue to remain generally light and variable. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching cold front, which will limit fog potential tomorrow morning. Outlook: A low pressure system moving from the Midwest to the Northeast States will drag a cold front through the region Thursday evening. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday and settles off the coast as another cold front approaches from the west on Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines expected in short term as the CAA surge is weakening across the southern waters. High pressure across southern Canada builds south today resulting a N-NE wind below 15 kts. Waves 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft seas. High pressure pushes offshore tonight ahead of the next cold front. Gradient tightens Thursday resulting in south to southeast winds increasing to between 15-20 knots late Thursday. Waves build to 2-3 feet and seas 3-5 feet. The cold front pushes across the waters late Thursday night with yet another CAA surge behind it (NW 15-25 kts). Waves 2-4 feet and seas 3-5 feet. Decided to hold off on and SCA headlines for now given this is mainly a 4th and 5th period event. High pressure returns to the waters late Friday through Sat. A cold front crosses the waters late in the weekend into early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.