Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 292018 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 418 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE SFC HIGH THAT HAS KEPT SUNNY SKIES BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS AFTN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND CROSSES THE REGION MON MORNING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT NEARS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...ANY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME AN ALREADY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN ORDER FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT POP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA AFTER SUNRISE WHERE THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER THE LOW-LEVEL MARINE LAYER. LIQUID PRECIP AMTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCHES (AVERAGING AROUND 0.05 INCHES). TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDEST EAST (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER WEST...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 MPH. WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...HAVE MAINTAINED AN ALL RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. HOWEVER...SFC WET BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME GRAUPEL MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND (POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTN. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW DURING THE EVENING. OTWS... DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HI CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW THIS EVENG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE AFTN/EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM. SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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WHILE NO RECORDS WERE BROKEN THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS DID COME CLOSE AT ELIZABETH CITY NC. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29: ACTUAL RECORD LOCATION LOW LOW -------- ------ ------- RIC 26 22/1923 ORF 29 25/1982 SBY 24 18/1923 ECG 26 24/1982
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM/MAS MARINE...SAM CLIMATE...BMD

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