Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201823 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 223 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the weekend while Tropical Cyclone Jose will to meanders south of the New England coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TS Jose continuing to circulate SSE of srn New England through the rest of the day. Far ENE locations of FA remain in wrn periphery of the storms circulation...and will have SCT-BKN SC-AC and possible ISOLD shras (into this afternoon). Otherwise...subsidence evident on satl over the rest of the FA and will result in a mostly sunny...warm day. Moisture now over the ern OH Valley into the central mtns expected to stay WSW of the local area. Near term guidance suggests a diminishing trend and no convection reaching far WSW zones. Highs 85-90F...except l80s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the fa then dissipates after 00Z across the NC piedmont. Otw, mstly clr to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s. Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon while a weakened/remnant circulation (of Jose) slowly tracks wwd toward the nrn mid- Atlantic coast. Expecting some increase in clouds and PoPs by Mon...esp near the coast. Lows Sat night in the l-m60s...except u60s at the coast. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs Sun/Mon in the u70s- around 80F at the coast...m80s inland. Wx conditions Tue-Wed will depend on track of Tropical Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to the E would result in drier wx. For now...generally taking the middle of the road/blend of all guidance...meaning VRB clouds/20-40% PoPs (highest E) Mon night-Tue night. Monitor forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TS Jose continues to lift NE away from the area today. SCT-BKN MVFR SC along the coast this morning becomes SCT CU this aftn. WNW aob 10 KTS. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE...
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Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift NE (S of the New England coast) through tonight...then linger (even move back WSW while weakening) through the weekend. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will begin to impact the waters beginning Fri...continuing through the weekend. Will be extending current SCA on the ocean through tonight. After that...wind speeds will likely be low enough to transition to SCAHS (where appropriate) into Fri (due to lingering seas aoa 5 ft (on the ocean waters)). Seas will once again ramp up Friday and into the weekend as swells from distant Tropical Cyclone Maria begin to impact the region (from the SSE). Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be be needed on the ocean waters through early next week.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Made some adjustments to the forecast, with tidal departures now about the same in the upper Bay as the lower Bay (averaging close to +1.5 ft throughout). This due to water not exiting the Bay efficiently (looking at currents at the Cape Henry channel marker currents). The level at Cambridge may be exacerbated by an additional few tenths of a foot due to NW winds ~10 kt trapping water in the inlet. Have upgraded to a coastal flood warning for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore (Dorchester/Wicomico/Somerset) for the upcoming high tide cycle later this aftn/early evening. Elsewhere, will allow the warning for the VA ern shore and ocean side of the MD shore to expire shortly after noon, with just additional minor flooding anticipated for the tide tonight and possibly on Thu. Will update these products early this aftn with additional coastal flood advisory headlines. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ089-090- 093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>097- 099-100-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077- 078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB MARINE...AJB/ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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