Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230621 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 221 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Very hot and humid conditions will continue over the region through Sunday. A weakening cold front will gradually push across the area late Sunday night through Monday and stall across the Carolinas through the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures will cool down to near normal levels Monday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc/lee trough lingering over the Mid- Atlantic region from NJ down SSW into the piedmont of the Carolinas. Energetic WNW flow prevails aloft. The initial batch of strong to severe thunderstorms has now pushed off the coast of the VA Ern Shore, with additional development occurring across central/nrn VA to the MD Ern Shore. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat through the early overnight hours, though steepening mid-level lapse rates could portend to some strong updrafts and the potential for some hail across the nrn tier of the area, and frequent lighting is expected with strong updrafts. PoPs should generally be 30-50% for scattered coverage for the nrn half of the area and aob 20% for most other areas overnight. Still very warm and humid for areas that have not been "cooled" by rain. Lows most areas 75 to 80 F, slightly "cooler" across the north, especially in areas the do receive rain. Continued hot and humid with additional heat headlines now issued for about the southern 2/3 of the CWA (along/S of WAL to RIC to Lunenburg Co. line) where heat indices of 105 to 109 F expected. Could potentially reach to 110+ along for NE NC but do anticipate highs a little cooler than today so have held off on this for now. Sunday remains a bit of a conditional convective threat. Numerous convective boundaries are likely to be in place, which would serve as a focusing mechanism for afternoon and evening convection. However, uncertainty exists regarding the extent and degree of cloudiness from convective debris which hangs around into Sunday, thereby serving to dampen destabilization. Models are still split on extent of cloudiness through the early afternoon and have therefore elected to keep POP in chance range (40-50%) for now, highest over the NE CWA. Should convective debris clear out in a timely way on Sunday, it`s easy to visualize a scenario in which more widespread convection occurs, given better lift/lapse rates courtesy of the approaching upper trough and the strong heating/destabilization that would result from quicker clearing. Once again, damaging winds again the primary threat with storms on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold front slated to pass through while weakening late Sun night through Mon. Will maintain high chc PoPs all zones Sun night, and favor highest PoPs Mon shifting south across SE VA & NE NC with 20% PoPs for the N. Slightly less humid Monday over the NW CWA. Not quite as hot, with highs Mon 90 to 95 F. Front stalls in NC Tue, with mainly diurnal tstms possible again over the S, 15-20% N. Seasonable highs upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure moves off the coast Wed with any support for pcpn across southern half of fa closer to a stalled frontal boundary. Highs in the mid-upr 80s. Lows in the upr 60s-lwr 70s. This boundary begins to drift north Thurs resulting in slight chc pops across the region. Highs in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. Lows 70-75. Next boundary approaches from the north, then stalls across the region Fri and Sat. Chc pops each day though pcpn may tend to concentrate across the southern half of fa Sat depending on how far south the boundary actually gets. Highs Fri in the upr 80s- lwr 90s. Lows in the upr 60s-mid 70s. Highs Sat in the mid-upr 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions at PHF/ORF/ECG...with MVFR/IFR conds in SHRA/TSRA at RIC/SBY early this morning. Expect a return to VFR conditions all terminals within the next few hours as convection wanes, and expect a relative lull thereafter through early afternoon. However, expect convection to re-develop ahead of an approaching upper shortwave by mid-afternoon. In general, expect most organized activity will be over the northern half of the area, and have accounted for rain chances after 20z at RIC/SBY. However, confidence in areal coverage of storms remains quite low attm and have elected to keep any vicinity thunder wording out for now. Hoping CAMs will hone in a bit more on convective chances for the 12z cycle, and will re-access at that time. Outlook: Convection slowly shifts south into south central VA and NC for Monday. VFR should dominate through this period, with periods of periods of sub-VFR possible in heavier showers/TSRA. A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines expected as a SW wind aob 15 kt prevails into the early week. There could be a few gusts to 20 kts Sun aftn, but duration is not expected to be long enough to justify a SCA headline. Seas 2 feet nearshore to 4 ft out near 20 nm. Sct tstms possible in the afternoon/eve hours. The next frontal boundary crosses the area Tues with a wind shift into the E-NE. At this point, winds are expected to remain below SCA levels (aob 15 KTS). Seas 2 to 4 ft. Weak onshore flow continues for the rest of the week as a frontal boundary stalls across the area. This will also act as a trigger for sct late day convection as well. && .CLIMATE... Heat wave is expected to continue through Sunday. The 2nd half of July is climatologically the hottest few weeks of the year, so we still may not set any daily records at our main climate sites. For reference, record highs for today and Sunday are listed below: * Date: Sat(7/22) Sun(7/23) * RIC: 103/1952 103/1952 * ORF: 102/2011 103/2011 * SBY: 104/1930 103/2011 * ECG: 104/1952 104/1952 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>068-078>090-092-093-095>100-512>516-518-520- 523>525. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAM MARINE...AJB/MPR CLIMATE...

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