Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 261740
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
140 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
High pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A cold
front approaches from the northwest Thursday afternoon and crosses
the area during the evening. High pressure returns Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc hi pres remains in place from SE Canada swd to the Carolinas
late this morning. Meanwhile...lo pres was tracking into the wrn
Great Lakes. Other than SCT-BKN mid/hi clouds spreading ewd from
that lo pres system...expecting mainly SKC the rest of the day.
Winds remaining lgt and mainly NE-SE. Highs from the u50s NNE to
the l-m60s SSW.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The surface high gradually pushes offshore tonight as low
pressure tracks toward the Great Lakes. The surface ridge axis
remains near the coast much of the night, so lows will still be
cool under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky ranging from the
upper 30s over the Lower MD Ern Shore to the low 40s elsewhere.
Shortwave energy will lift through the Great Lakes tonight into
Thursday, with the trailing cold front approaching from the nw
Thursday aftn and crossing the area Thursday evening. Clouds
increase early Thursday with much of the area becoming mostly
cloudy to overcast. Chc PoPs (25-40%) for showers spread across
the nrn half of the area by afternoon. The better potential for
showers will be with the front Thursday evening, with 40-55% PoPs
from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore, and 20-30% elsewhere. Moisture
is limited with this system, so current QPF through 12z Friday is
aob 0.15". Highs Thursday range from the mid 60s nw to near 70
The front pushes offshore late Thursday night into early Friday
morning with high pressure returning by aftn. Clouds are expected
to decrease Friday with most of the area becoming mostly sunny by
late morning and aftn. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday
morning will be followed by highs in the low 60s to around 70.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure slides south of the region Saturday, centering
along the Southeast coast. Shortwave ridging aloft builds over the
eastern US. The result will be deep layer southwest to west flow and
warming temperatures. 850Mb temperatures warm to around 12-14C (+1
standard deviation) Saturday. Have trended temperatures warmer, with
highs generally in the low to mid 70`s. Cooler Eastern Shore. Medium
range guidance now in better agreement with pushing a northern
stream shortwave across the Northeast states Sunday. A dry cold
front is progged to drop into the region Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening, but not before temperatures warm into the mid
(possibly upper) 70`s. Trough axis pushes offshore Sunday night
along with the dry cold front. Upper/surface high pressure returns
to the region Monday. Highs in the mi to upper 60`s. Heights begin
to build again across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as upper level
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico builds northward. The result
will be another warming trend with highs back into the upper 60`s to
low 70`s Tuesday. Mild overnight temperatures expected through the
period, with lows generally in the upper 40`s to low/mid 50`s. The
exception will be Saturday night, when lows are in the mid to upper
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A ridge of high pressure extending south of Canada and into the Mid
Atlantic states is expected to continue to influence the weather
through much of the 18Z TAF period. The ridge will continue to shift
toward the coast this evening. A cold front will approach the area
tomorrow afternoon, bringing the potential for a few showers.
Seeing clear skies across all TAF sites this afternoon with only a
bit of stratus across portions of Central VA. Winds continue to
remain generally light and variable. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will continue to increase
ahead of an approaching cold front, which will limit fog potential
Outlook: A low pressure system moving from the Midwest to the
Northeast States will drag a cold front through the region Thursday
evening. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday and settles off
the coast as another cold front approaches from the west on
-- End Changed Discussion --
No headlines expected in short term as the CAA surge is weakening
across the southern waters. High pressure across southern Canada
builds south today resulting a N-NE wind below 15 kts. Waves 1-2 ft
with 2-3 ft seas.
High pressure pushes offshore tonight ahead of the next cold front.
Gradient tightens Thursday resulting in south to southeast winds
increasing to between 15-20 knots late Thursday. Waves build to 2-3
feet and seas 3-5 feet. The cold front pushes across the waters late
Thursday night with yet another CAA surge behind it (NW 15-25 kts).
Waves 2-4 feet and seas 3-5 feet. Decided to hold off on and SCA
headlines for now given this is mainly a 4th and 5th period event.
High pressure returns to the waters late Friday through Sat. A cold
front crosses the waters late in the weekend into early next week.