Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300618 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 218 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA (EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F. UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW. HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER 09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
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&& .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MAM MARINE...LSA

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