Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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535 FXUS61 KAKQ 290019 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 819 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the region this evening. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the west. A strong system is expected to impact the region Friday and friday night. Dry weather returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest analysis indicating broad area of low pressure centered from eastern PA to the Delmarva with a strong mid/upper level trough and associated shortwave energy moving ESE across south central VA and north central NC. Scattered/numerous tstms have developed and are pushing through much of the CWA west of the Bay, and will continue to push E towards the coast through 00Z. Have had fairly limited sunshine today but temperatures into the lower-mid 70s has allowed ML Capes to avg ~1000 J/Kg. Effective shear over southern areas is 30-35 kt, while it`s <30 kt over the remainder of the region. Thus far, storms have been fairly short-lived and sub-severe but have been producing hail. expect this to be the main concern through early evening along with some gusty winds of 30-40 mph. Will carry 60-70% PoPs through 22Z to 00Z (longest farther east), with PoPs rapidly diminishing to 30-40% or less after 00Z. Genly dry after midnight though with a low level flow behind the front NNE rather than NW, expect some lingering clouds to persist through Wed morning. Lows mainly 50-55 F (except upr 40s ern shore). Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some early mostly cloudy conditions (especially south) as drier air moves in from the N. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by Thu, allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. GFS/NAM bufkit soundings suggest skies become mostly cloudy by mid-late morning for wrn 1/2 of the CWA. With fairly low mixing and overrunning clouds, expect a much cooler day with highs mainly ranging from the lower to mid 50s near the coast to the upper 50s over interior eastern VA/northeast NC. Kept it dry through the day despite the increase in clouds ahead of the next system. A complex low pressure system approaches from the west late Thu night and early Fri before slowly crossing the region Friday/Friday night. Guidance in good agreement with respect to potential for widespread showers/tstms and potential for heavy rain during Fri. Will limit pops to 20-30% along west of I-95 prior to 12z Fri before increasing to 80% to 90% all areas during Fri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Good chc for showers continues Fri night into Sat morning, as low pressure area and associated cold front crosses the area then moves off the coast. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru at least Mon morning. Yet another system will bring the chc for showers again late Mon thru Tue. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat, in the 60s to near 70 Sun and Mon, and in the 60s to lower 70s Tue. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 40s Sat night and Sun night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Mon night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few showers and isolated T-storm continue on the radar but expect this activity to soon die off with the sunset. The frontal boundary has moved into SE Va and will push offshore by midnight. Winds are light across the region but will generally shift from SW to NW-NE during the overnight. The N-NE flow will produce some stratus ceilings overnight especially for eastern portions of the CWA. This will result in ceilings of 1000-2000 ft for a brief period in the morning. Some IFR conditions may also develop. Skies will scatter out and lift from north to south on Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds into the region from the north. Dry VFR conditions through Thursday. However, clouds will increase on Thursday as another front approaches the region. Clouds then thicken and lower Thursday night as the next low pressure system approaches the area. This system should bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area Friday/Friday night as it crosses the Mid Atlantic States. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was over ern MD with a cold front extending fm the low SW thru cntrl VA and NC. SW winds 5 to 15 kt this evening will shift to the NW then N later tonight into Wed morning, as the low/front push out to sea and high pressure starts to build in fm the Great Lakes region. North winds mainly 10-15 kt expected during Wed, as sfc high pressure ridges down into the Mid Atlc region. While there could be a few gusts to low end SCA in the Ches Bay Wed morning thru midday, still do not expect predominate SCA conditions to be met thru Wed. However, winds will be marginal for much of the morning and early aftn in the lower Chesapeake Bay, and will need to watch marginal SCA gusts during that time. Otherwise, cool high pressure will continue to build in fm the north Wed night into Thu morning, before it slides out to sea Thu aftn and night. NNE winds 10-15 kt Wed night thru Thu morning, become NE 5 to 10 kt Thu aftn. E winds 5 to 10 kt Thu night become SE 10-15 kt Fri morning, and SE or S 10-20 kt Fri aftn into early Fri evening, as a warm front lifts acrs the waters. Waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft this evening thru Wed, then seas could build to near 5 ft over portions of the coastal waters Wed night into Thu. But, no SCA headlines at this time. Could have SCA conditions over portions of the waters Fri aftn thru Fri night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD/JEF MARINE...TMG

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