Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261008 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 508 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG. COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT...AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE. THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH 2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY TUE HOWEVER. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW. CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S. CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY. OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...
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GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO 5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM

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