-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
664
FXUS61 KAKQ 031844
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
244 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated afternoon showers are possible into this evening, but
otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday
as high pressure builds in from the north, with lower humidity
expected. Low pressure along the Southeast coast drifts north
Sunday, bringing showers and a few storms to the southern half
of the area. Typical summertime conditions are expected next
week, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms and
seasonable heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

- A few showers or isolated storms are possible through early
  evening mainly across the southern half of the area.

An upper low moves into northern New England tonight. Meanwhile, a
stronger cold front out ahead of the upper trough drops SE through
the eastern Great Lakes and pushes into the northern mid-Atlantic
region late this aftn and evening. Will note that PWAT values have
dropped considerably compared to the past several days, currently
being analyzed at ~1.20" over NW sections of the FA, and ~1.50" in
the far SE (compared to >2.00"). Therefore, expect mainly dry
conditions this afternoon. Recent hi-res guidance continues to show
the potential for isolated showers/storms this afternoon, mainly
along and S of I-64. Have increased PoPs slightly to account for
this possibility. Lower humidity will filter into the area from the
NW late this afternoon into the evening. Any showers/tstms this aftn
should rapidly dissipate towards sunset, with a mostly clear sky
tonight as sfc high pressure builds SSE from the Great Lakes into
the local area. Lows tonight avg in the low to mid 60s inland, with
lower 70s along the SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and pleasant for the Fourth of July with lower humidity,
  extending into Saturday.

- Moisture and precip chances increase Sunday as low pressure off
  the Southeast coast lifts northward.

Fantastic July weather in store for Friday and Saturday as drier air
moves into the region. Remaining warm Friday afternoon with mostly
clear skies but dew points mix into the low to mid 60s (even some
upper 50s possible in spots). Highs top out in the mid 80s N with
upper 80s and low 90s elsewhere. Remaining comfortable Friday night
with mostly clear skies and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Similar
conditions expected Saturday but clouds are expected to increase
through the afternoon and into the evening as weak low pressure
lifts northward off the GA/SC coast and surface high pressure moves
offshore. High temperatures top out in the upper 80s to low 90s with
dew points mixing into the 60s during the afternoon. Most of the
area stays dry Saturday night but a few showers are possible near
the Albemarle Sound toward sunrise on Sunday. Lows overnight in the
mid 60s to 70s (warmest SE).

Deeper moisture returns Sunday as the aforementioned low off the
Carolina coast lifts N or NE. 12z guidance has trended toward a
wetter solution on Sunday for the southern half of the area. Have
increased PoPs into the 40-60% range, generally from US460 southward
with a slight chance to the north. While some tropical or
subtropical development is possible (NHC shows a medium chance for
development through 7 days), the 12z deterministic and ensemble
forecasts generally keep the low quite weak (1012 mb+). The main
impact will be increased deep layer moisture and associated
shower/storm chances returning to the region. Clouds increase on
Sunday from S to N with afternoon high temps in the upper 80s to low
90s. More noticeable will be a return to 70s dew points after a well
deserved break for the holiday. Some showers may linger into the
overnight hours of Sunday into Monday with lows in the upper 60 well
inland to the mid and upper 70s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming increasingly hot and humid by next week with
  afternoon/evening storm chances.

Higher humidity and seasonable weather is expected next week, along
with chances of diurnal showers/tstms well in advance of another
cold front moving into the Great Lakes. The coastal low or trough
axis lingers offshore into early next week before moving off to our
NE by midweek. Daily high temperatures also warm back into the lower
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Mostly/partly sunny this afternoon with SCT low-mid CU across
the region. CIGs are lowest (locally MVFR) in NE NC, including
near ECG, with VFR CIGs elsewhere. Isolated showers and storms
may develop later this afternoon across central and southern VA,
with locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible. Have included
PROB30 groups at ORF and PHF in the 22z-01z timeframe. Light
W/NW or variable winds inland and easterly winds at the coast
with the sea breeze this afternoon. Generally SKC tonight w/
light/calm winds. Patchy fog could also develop, with the best
chance in NE NC where low-level moisture is highest. A secondary
cold front moves through early Friday morning with a N/NNE wind
shift and mainly clear skies persisting into the early
afternoon.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR through at least Saturday as drier air
builds into the region behind the cold front. A few
showers/tstms possible by Sunday, mainly south, and all areas
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA/benign conditions through Saturday.

- Low pressure south of the area could bring elevated southeast
  winds early next week.

A cold front is situated north of the region, extending from New
England westward into the Great Lakes, with a weak sfc trough/wind
shift over our area as well. Winds are light around 5 kt and
generally out of the south, but there is some variability near the
coasts where sea breezes have been dominant. The cold front drops
southward through the waters late tonight into early Friday morning.
A brief northerly wind surge is possible around sunrise as cooler
air filter down the waters and sustained winds up to 15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt possible for a few-hour period. Waves in the
bay could briefly increase to ~2 ft. SCAs appear unlikely at
this time.

High pressure settles N of the area Friday into Saturday and E-
NE winds of ~10 kt are expected during this time, potentially
increasing to 10-15 in the lower Chesapeake Bay in the late
afternoon and evening hours Friday and Saturday. Seas average ~2
ft. Uncertainty increases some Sunday as the wind and wave
forecast is dependent on the evolution of low pressure offshore
to our S. At this time, the low, and the resultant pressure
gradient, looks to stay quite weak. The current forecast depicts
SE winds increasing to around 15 kt later Sunday into Monday as
the low passes to our SE. While this is sub-SCA, changes to the
forecast are likely and some sort of SCA headlines could be
required at some point. Seas also increase to 3-5 ft, which
could necessitate headlines on the coastal waters. This low
also has a medium (60%) probability of taking on some tropical
or subtropical characteristics eventually. Variable marine
conditions return toward the middle of next week with afternoon
sea breezes and diurnal shower/storm activity.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...LKB/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW