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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
744 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
MORNING...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING SO THE SFC RIDGE IS
WEAKENING. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING SOME OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IS
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND DIFFICULT TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE DUE TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ASSOCIATED W/ THE GULF LOW.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY...MODELS
SUGGEST SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM
THE W/SW. NO REAL CHC FOR PRECIP TODAY DUE TO DEEP DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 900 MB AND 500 MB...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY MID AFTN ONWARD. CONTINUED ONSHORE E/NE FLOW
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW AVG ONCE AGAIN.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A MODIFYING/WARMING
AIRMASS BEING OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS THAN PAST 2 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN
UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE
AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT
BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO
COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE
COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVF CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL PERSIS AT COASTAL
TAF SITES FROM SBY TO ORF AND ECG THROUGH 15Z-17Z. HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LO PRES OFF THE
SE COAST WILL WILL MAINTAIN NE OR E WINDS THRU TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVR THE ERN TAF SITES OF SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG THRU
MIDDAY. THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE MID AND HI LVL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FM THE SSW
LATER TODAY AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO
ECG BY SAT MORNG. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY
DAYBREAK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU
MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS
EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND
(633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N
WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT
INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG