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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
508 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT...AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE VA COAST.
STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE
EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE OFF THE
COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE BANDING
DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND
DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE. THUS...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN POSITION OF THIS
BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD
ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH 2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE
(AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK
TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
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GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM