Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290724 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 324 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will reside off the Mid Atlantic Coast through Friday. A trough of low pressure will set up over the area for late Friday night through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1023mb high pressure is centered just off the coast this morning. Other than some high clouds filtering across the region, we have quiet conditions with comfortable temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The high will push further offshore through tonight with dry wx prevailing. SSW flow will start to increase today resulting in a warmer afternoon and a slight increase in humidity. Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure remains centered offshore Friday and Saturday, resulting in warm afternoons with increased humidity levels. Dry wx will prevail thru at least the first part of Friday for the entire region. An isolated shower or tstm could affect the far southern tier of the area Fri aftn/eve. Then, isolated to sctd showers or tstms will be possible Sat aftn into Sat evening, as a trough of low pressure sets up over the region. Highs on Fri will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows Fri night mainly in the lower 70s. Highs on Sat in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern with a cold front weakening near or just N of the area Sat night/Sun morning. Still capping PoPs at 20-40% Sat night (highest N) as more significant forcing stays NW closer to the decaying front. Sunday will see the front wash out across the local area, will maintain 20% PoPs N/NW and 30% PoPs most other areas (up to 40% over northeast NC). Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mon/Tue will see the local area generally in light flow and minimal forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough aftn/early evening instability for ~20% PoPs most areas (and with a little more instability will keep PoPs to near 30% for interior NE NC) Highs 90-95 F inland and mid- upper 80s/lower 90s near the coast. Lows generally 70-75 F. GFS/ECMWF diverge with respect to details late Tue/Wed, the ECMWF suggesting building heat and lower PoPs while the GFS supports slightly cooler wx and a higher chance for daily tstms. Have genly split the difference and just carried 20 to 30% PoPs during climo favored timeframe (late aftn and evening). Highs continue to be 90-95 F inland and upper 80s/around 90 F along the coast. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure moves off the coast today allowing for more of a southerly flow. A cold front over the Midwest will approach this weekend and then stall to the north of the area. High confidence that VFR conditions will continue through the 06Z TAF period. Mainly clear skies and variable to light S winds are anticipated overnight. Scattered cumulus, around 6000 feet, develops mainly after 16Z. Winds increase a bit out of the south by this afternoon, occasionally gusting to 15-20 knots. Outlook: Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday through Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Latest weather analysis features Sfc high pressure now centered along and just offshore the SE VA coast. Low-Level SSE flow continues this morning ~10-15 kt. A weak surge has allowed winds to increase over the past few hours, but are still predominately sub-SCA. After a brief lull this morning through early afternoon, expect a slightly stronger surge as pressure gradient tightens between high pressure offshore and low pressure crossing the upper Great Lakes/Southern Ontario. SCA headlines for S surge (wind gusts to 20 to 25 kt) now in place for all of the Ches Bay from this afternoon through late this evening, and through early Friday morning for Bay zones N of New Pt Comfort. Timing of strongest winds appears slightly earlier per both hi-res CAMs and synoptic models coming with the initial surge from mid to late afternoon through midnight tonight. Farther south in the Bay and across the rivers, the gradient slackens a bit faster and therefore expect SCA winds to end a bit sooner, thus the midnight end time. Farther north, NWPS and Wavewatch indicate seas increasing to near SCA threshold this evening, mainly north of Parramore Island. Wavewatch/NWPS blend suggests mainly 4 ft seas in these areas with the potential for seas approaching 5 ft out 20 NM offshore. Given that timing is into the second period, and any SCA over the northern coastal zones would be short-lived and marginal, will hold off on SCA headline over the coastal waters for now. Farther south should stay at or below 3-4 ft through the period. Similar conditions Fri aftn/evening, with another surge expected Friday afternoon and evening. However, guidance still maintains that this surge will be slightly slightly weaker compared to Thu night. A slow moving cold front approaches from the NW Sat but weakens by the time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Outside of any tstms, good boating conditions expected over the upcoming holiday weekend, with sub-SCA conditions expected with winds 10-15 kt or less and seas mainly 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJB/JDM MARINE...MAM

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