Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030655 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 255 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE REGION. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LTST MSAS SHOWING THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS SRN VA (JUST N OF THE NC BRDR) WITH A S/W MOVG OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST. THIS S/W WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS CONVECTION. ALSO NOTING THAT AN OUTFLOW BNDRY SAGGED SOUTH INTO NRN NC THIS EVENING FROM THE TSTRMS. THIS BNDRY WAS SEEN ON AKQ RADAR AS FAR S AS THE ALBEMARLE SND. THIS IS WHERE MOST IF NOT ALL THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS LOCATED LAET THIS EVENING. HIGH RES DATA NOT ALL THAT BULLISH WITH A LOT OF PCPN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. DATA WUD AGREE WITH THIS SOLN SINCE LTL IF ANY PCPN NOTED UPSTREAM. NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING / DISSIPATING THIS EVENING ACROSS TN/KY. GIVEN THIS DATA...LOWERED POPS FOR REST OF THE EVENING TO CHC OVR MOST OF THE FA...EXCEPT LIKELY THRU MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NC SNEAKING JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND WHERE OUTFLOW BNDRY SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED. OTW...SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH...CHC POPS OVR THE SOUTH AFTR MIDNIGHT GIVEN LCTN OF FRNTL BNDRY AND AVBL LOW LVL MOISTURE. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL AFTR MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND FLOW...WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...DONT XPCT ANY WDSPRD FOG ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDWEST FRI MORNING...TRACKING EWD OVER THE OH VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...LOCATING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER CENTRAL NC FRI AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX REMAINS ACROSS NC...BUT PWATS PROGGED TO REMAIN +2 STD DEV OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS SREF AND NAM GUIDANCE MAINTAIN MODEST INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW PERSISTS FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE AIRMASS AND AVAILABLE ENERGY. TROUGH AXIS LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT AS THE SFC LOW RE- ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCES (CHANCE POPS) WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY. BAGGY TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS SUN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWD. THE RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 85 SOUTH FRI AND SAT...WARMING INTO MID-UPPER 80S SUN WITH LESS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WPC/SREF QPF AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES FOR SAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, OUR CURRENT PATTERN OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY, SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ARE ON MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PER BOTH THE 12Z/02 ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH TEMPS MON-WED...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER...AND WILL RMN THERE INTO THIS AFTN. MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM LT TDA THROUGH SAT. THE FNTL BNDRY TO THE S (NOW) RETURNS N BEGINNING LT TNGT...CONTG INTO FRI. STARTING OUT W/ VRB CIGS/VSBYS (AT TIMES IFR) THIS MRNG. AN AREA OF SHRAS WINDING DOWN INVOF NE NC ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD LT TNGT INTO SAT. A SECOND ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PCPN PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN). && .MARINE... UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT OVER THE WTRS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WKND. FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED OVR THE NC CSTL WTRS...AND RMNS THERE THIS MRNG...BEFORE PULLING BACK N LT TNGT INTO SAT. PRIMARILY NNE WNDS BECOMING ESE TDA (SPEEDS AOB 15 KT)...THOUGH VRB INVOF NE NC WTRS. THE BNDRY SINKS BACK S LT SAT INTO SUN AS WK SFC LO PRES EXITS S OF NEW ENG...RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING FM MNLY SSW (SAT) TO NNE (SUN). THROUGH THE WKND...CONDS RMN SUB-SCA...W/ WAVES IN THE BAY AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE OCN WTRS AVGG 2-4 FT...AND WIND SPEEDS MNLY AOB 15 KT. GUSTY WNDS/HVY RA WILL BE PSBL IN ANY TSTMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE... JUNE 2015 CLIMATE: AT NORFOLK: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD. *TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD. AT RICHMOND: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR/SAM NEAR TERM...MPR/SAM SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...ALB/LKB/LSA MARINE...ALB/MAM CLIMATE...AKQ

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