Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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882 FXUS61 KAKQ 211844 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 144 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered over the southeast states today into Monday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning and moves well off the coast by Tuesday night. High pressure becomes centered over the south central states Wednesday and builds east into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis indicates a weak upper level trough along the SE coast with a lot of clouds over the Gulf Stream from off FL to SE NC. Over the local area, weak sfc high pressure remains in control with mainly sunny skies as of 11 am, the exception being the MD eastern shore where BKN/OVC clouds from the N have moved in as a weak front over the NE CONUS brushes by this region. Temperatures have warmed rapidly and are now mainly in the mid/upper 50s except in the upper 40s/lower 50s eastern shore and near the immediate coast. With fairly light winds today, expect areas of SE-E VA/NE NC near the coast to develop an onshore flow this aftn and this will keep temps from rising much from current readings (in some cases temps may drop a few degrees). Light SSW winds inland will allow for highs into the lower-mid 60s across most of interior NE NC and southern/central VA, while highs will avg in the 50s near the coast and for the eastern shore. Some clouds will spread in from the west later this aftn but probably not until after 2 to 3 pm for most of the CWA (eastern shore will avg out partly- mostly cloudy). For tonight, skies will avg partly-mostly cloudy N to partly cloudy- mostly clear S. Not as cold, with lows mainly from 35-40 F. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high pres remains off the E coast through Mon while lo pres tracks from the central plains to the wrn lakes. SSW flow will keep mild wx over the region w/ partly cloudy conditions. Highs Mon 55-60F near the bay/ocean and on the ern shore to 60-65F for most other locations. Rain chances increase quickly after midnight Mon night through Tue morning as lo pres tracks through the lakes region...pushing its associated cold front across the local area. Models now in general agreement wrt timing that front through the FA. Keeping CHC to likely PoPs for most of the area during 06Z-17Z/23 (Tue) then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00Z/24 (Wed). Will also keep hidden/very lo chance for ISOLD tstms. Lows Mon night from the u40s-l50s. Highs Tue from 60-65F N and on the ern shore to the u60s-l70s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models are in very good agreement in the extended range from 00z Wed through Saturday with the long wave trough pulling out of the Northeastern US Wed and Thursday with a shortwave ridge building in for Friday and Saturday. At the surface, the period begins with NW flow as the surface low over deepens over the nern US. The surface low will lift NE into the Canadian Maritimes by Wed evening. With the NW flow, expect the clouds to clear Tues night into Wednesday but with the cold advection, temperatures will be cooler into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another shortwave will move through the eastern trough on Tuesday and will bring a reinforcing cold front to the area. This may knock temperatures down a couple more degrees on Thursday, but with little moisture expect to see just a few clouds across the northern portion of the CWA. High pressure will build into the area on Thursday night into Friday. The high will remain in place through Saturday before slowly sliding off the coast by late Saturday with SW flow returning. This will allow for good radiation cooling both Thurs and Fri night with temps in the u 20s to l30s Thurs night and low to mid 30s Friday night. For Friday should see lots of sun with highs around the mid 40s over Lower MD and m50s in southern VA. On Saturday with the return flow the models are indicating return moisture getting in and some showers possible late day, but at this point, not ready to introduce pops so have gone with just slight chance values in the 15 to 20% range. High should continue to modify into the 50s to around 60F. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the 18Z TAF period with weak sfc high pressure over the area. Clouds are increasing and will see cigs of 5-10k ft affecting much of the area through tonight. Light S winds inland with light ENE winds at the coast this aftn, mainly SSW at 5 kt or less tonight. Sfc high pressure settles off the SE coast on Mon w/ dry conditions continuing. The next chance for widespread precipitation and flight restrictions comes mainly after midnight Tue through Tue aftn with a passing cold front. Gusty SSW winds early Tue shift to the WNW late in the day. Isolated tstms possible with the front mainly Tue morning. Dry and VFR conditions then prevail Tue-Thu. && .MARINE... High pressure, centered over and just off the Southeast US coast, will remain in control of the weather thru Monday with winds 10 kt or less and generally benign boating conditions. By Monday night, winds will begin to increase again out of the south as a deepening low over the Great Lakes pushes its associated cold front toward the region. Wind will increase to 15 to 25 kt from the S-SW prior to daybreak Tues, continuing thru midday, with seas on the coastal waters building to 4-6 FT; waves 3-4 ft on the Bay. SCAs will likely be needed. Once the front clears the area Tues afternoon, winds will shift to the west 10-15 kt Tues night/Wed and then northwest on Thursday. Waves/seas subside to 1-3 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...ESS

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