Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021755 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN. OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF RIC). UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK (HIGHEST WED). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND SAT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON. THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO THE SSW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD

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