Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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249 FXUS61 KAKQ 020726 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 326 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN STALL OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES REMNANT BNDRY ALIGNED FM NR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY ON WNW THROUGH CNTRL VA. LINGERING LO LVL MARITIME AIR TO THE NE OF THE BNDRY HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LO CIGS AND PATCHY FG...TO THE S AND W...VRB CIGS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID. AN AREA OF SHRAS/TSTMS HAS SCOURED SOME OF THE LO LVL CLDNS OUT ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA...NOT QUITE SURE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE FARTHER E (DEEPER INTO THE MARITIME AIR ALL THE WAY TO THE ERN SHORE). HESISTANT TO QUICKLY ERODE MARITIME AIR OVR NE PORTIONS OF FA TDA (ESP THIS MRNG/MIDDAY). OTRW...BECOMING WARMER/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE W/ VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS. CDFNT FM THE WNW WILL BE SLOLY APPROACHING THE FA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. THE COMBO OF THE APPROACHING FNT/HEATING-MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS ACRS FA THIS AFTN. SPC HAS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC IN SLGT RISK SVR...WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN HWO. HI TEMPS FM THE L-M70S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE U70S-L80S ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CDFNT ENTERS THE FA EARLY TNGT...THEN STALLS. UPR LVL LO PRES EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO THE MDATLC STATES BY LT THIS EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE XPCD TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION DUE TO THE FNT BECOMING NRLY PARALLEL TO THE SW FLO ALOFT. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE EVENING. WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PD OF LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN WIND/HAIL. WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF TSTMS MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE L60S NW TO THE M60S SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE U60S-L70S N/CNTRL TO U70S S. DIMINISHING CHCS FOR PCPN WED...THOUGH W/ UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS ALG WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS. HI TEMPS WED AGAIN FM THE U60S-L70S N/CNTRL TO U70S S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERS NEAR THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PERIODS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S EXCEPT RANGING INTO THE UPR 70S ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE INDICATED NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPR 40S INLAND RURAL AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THRU KRIC UNTIL 07Z...AND KSBY THRU 09Z. A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF KRIC/KSBY WILL KEEP IFR/LIFR CONDS IN PLACES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS EXIST AT KPHF/KORF/KECG AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z AND LAST THRU 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST (21Z) AT KSBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT BUT SPECIFICS ARE TO ILL-DEFINED ATTM TO INCLUDE IN 06Z TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. CHC OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA. && .MARINE... A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE THIS MORNING WITH E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES...AND S WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME S-SW ALL WATERS AT 10-15 KT. VSBYS WILL REMAIN 1-3 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY. WILL LEAVE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AS SEAS ARE AROUND 4 FT 20 NM OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE BY 7 AM TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT TRUE 5 FT SEAS MATERIALIZE AND WHETHER OR NOT TO CANCEL SCA EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE N- NE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUE EVE. ATTM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SCA CONDS WILL BE REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR POST-FRONTAL...WITH WINDS STAYING AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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