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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 100036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
836 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT BECOMES LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVR NRN HALF OF FA RESULTING IN PT CLDY SKIES.
M CLR TO THE SOUTH. WINDS DECOUPLE ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO OCCUR. LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND WARMER MON & TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SERN
STATES. LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE NRN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG TWD THE DELMARVA
DURING THIS TIME...PRIMARILY SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
UPSHOT HERE WILL BE PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A
SW WND. HIGHS MON 60-65 ERN SHORE...65-70 WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS MON
NITE IN THE 40S. FA BECOMES WRM SECTORED TUE ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE
TO BTWN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ERN SHORE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE EWRD MOVEMENT OF NEXT POTENT S/W PROGGED
TO EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MID WEEK. MODELS TRENDING
DRYER TUES NIGHT ACROSS THE FA. HAVE DROPPED POPS BUT KEPT A 14 POP
ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT LATE. LOWS M40S-L50S.

KEY TO WED FORECAST WILL BE TRACK OF TRIPLE POINT LOW PROGGED TO
MOVE NE ACROSS THE RGN. GFS/NAM/ECMWF TRACK THIS FTR JUST SOUTH OF
MASON DIXON LINE WHILE SREF TRACKS IT ACROSS NRN VA. A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK KEEPS AKQ FA IN WRM SECTOR LONGER BEFORE TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BTWN 18Z-00Z. SO HAVE RAISED HIGH TMPS INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS...ARND 70 SOUTH. KEPT HIGH CHC SHWRS DRNG THE MORNING
HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS DRNG THE AFTRN WITH FROPA. ALSO ADDED SOME
MDT RAINFALL AND SLGHT CHC AFTRN THUNDER TO THE GRIDS GIVEN MARGINAL
STABILITY PARAMETERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LO PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH ENE AND
OFF THE CST WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. RAIN SHOWERS END FM W TO E WED
EVENG/EARLY WED NGT...AND THE PCPN COULD END AS A MIX OF A RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER OVR THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR. THEN...STRNG NW
WINDS WILL USHER A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
FOR LATE WED NGT THRU THU. BECOMING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WED NGT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S. GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W. THE HI WILL BLD ACRS THE AREA THEN OUT TO SEA THU NGT THRU
FRI...MAINTAINING DRY WX. CLEAR AND COLD THU NGT WITH LOWS IN THE
LWR TO MID 20S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 50S. A DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORNG...WITH ANOTHER LO PRES SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS
BY LATE SUN. KEEPING DRY WX FCST FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. LOWS FRI
NGT IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE
MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE 10K FT OR
ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...MOST DAYS SHOULD BE DRY AND VFR THIS COMING WORK WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE PSBL
ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY. THE WEATHER IMPROVES ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE NGT. WINDS WILL BE 15
KT OR LESS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT.
INCREASING SSW WNDS EXPECTED DURING WED IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA CONDITIONS
OVR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. THAT LO AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ENE AND OFF THE CST WED NGT INTO THU MORNG.
IMPRESSIVE LO LVL CAA WILL THEN RESULT IN VERY STRONG NW WINDS OVR
THE MARINE AREA LATE WED NGT THRU THU. DEFINITE SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH GALE CONDITIONS A GOOD POSSIBILITY MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG