Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290851 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 351 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH THRU THE DAY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO RISE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH S-SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO A MILDER AFTERNOON DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID/UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW 50S SOUTH. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINLY CLEAR AND NOT AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S PIEDMONT TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY. THIS FORCES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. SW FLOW AND AN UPR RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE COAST WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE UPR 50S TO THE LOW/MID 60S. MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL VA MONDAY AFTERNOON... AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT ANY CHANCE OF PCPN OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...AS ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE ANAFRONTAL. WE WILL HOWEVER SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN INTERIOR NE NC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRNT SLIDES FARTHER SE OF THE AREA MON NGT...WITH THE CHANCE OF POST-FRNTAL PRECIP CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W. COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVR THE NRN PIEDMONT BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER...FOR NOW MAINLY EXPECTING PLAIN RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERS INTO TUE WITH STILL SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND DECENT WAA. WITH STRONG HI PRES STRADDLING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL... WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LO 40S NW TO LO 50S. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS (NEAR CLIMO) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WED THRU FRI GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S AND LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A SSW WIND AVERAGING 8-12KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SSW WIND WILL RELAX TO 5-8KT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE TO 8-12KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW MONDAY...AND CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING S OF THE REGION TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWER CIGS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A CHC OF -RA. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 20-25KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH THE WIND BECOMING SSW AND AVERAGING 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL N OF THE MID ATLANTIC. A SSW WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25KT ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH 15-20KT IN THE BAY N OF NEW POINT COMFORT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. AN SCA WILL BE ISSUED FROM 23Z TODAY TO 23Z SUNDAY FOR THE OCEAN N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND 23Z TODAY TO 15Z SUNDAY FOR THE BAY N OF NEW POINT COMFORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THIS TIME WITH THE WIND GENERALLY AOB 15KT OUT OF THE SSW. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NNE SURGE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ

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