Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 271050
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
650 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic
coast through today. Low pressure will slowly move northwest from
well east of the Florida coast toward the South Carolina coast
tonight through Sunday, then drifts northward along the coastal
Carolinas Sunday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
During today into tngt, upr rdg will bld alng the Mid Atlc cst
with sfc hi pres remaining cntrd well off the Mid Atlc cst. The
bldng upr rdg will help to push/keep aftn/eveng shower or tstm
development alng and e of the mountains. So, will maintain just
slgt chc (20%) POPS for nw counties. Highs today will be in the
upr 80s/arnd 90 well inland/piedmont, while an increase in sse
flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the cst with Highs
in the upr 70s to mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy tngt with Lows in the lwr to mid 60s.
For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the
deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst to our
south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence, so
have maintained POPS at only 20% and confined to ne NC in the
aftn. Otherwise, partly or mostly sunny elsewhere with highs in
the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont areas, and in the upr 70s to
lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper moisture finally pushes nwrd into
the cwa later Sat night into Sun morning, with PWATS rising to
1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into the southern 1/2 of the CWA.
Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast will determine sensible
wx on Sun, but overall it looks like a warm and humid airmass
will be in place and should be conducive to at least scattered
showers and tstms. So, have raised POPS to 40-60% most areas.
When track becomes more certain, will potentially need to raise
POPS even more, although the setup does not look like a complete
washout. Rather, expecting periods of potentially moderate to
heavy rain alternating with a variably cloudy sky and rain-free
conditions. Highs on Sun generally in the upr 70s to lwr 80s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the
evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the
southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model
guidance continues to support the development of this low by this
weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical
or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into
South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its
impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the
exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible
elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and
possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs
mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to
influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hi pres sfc-aloft off the mid atlc cst will dominate the wx
during the 12Z TAF pd. FEW-SCT hi based cu once agn xpcd...w/
isold-sct tstms psbl primarily W of the TAF sites lt this aftn or
eve. SSW wnds rmn aob 15 kt. No significant precipitation is
expected through Saturday. Chcs for shras/tstms increase for Sun
through Tue as lo pres tracks NW to the SC cst.
Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns off the mid atlc cst into the wknd. A bit
of a surge in speeds (avgg 15 kt) fm S direction ongoing and will
cont into the early mrng hrs then wane tda. S-SW winds 5-15 kt
will continue through midday Sat before winds become more ESE at
similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3 ft thru
Sat...waves 1-2 ft. Contg to monitor psbl low pressure development
off the southeast coast this weekend...which may bring increased
seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For
now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp
off VA/NE NC.
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond
1. 9.13" 1889
2. 8.98" 1873
3. 8.87" 1972
4. 8.67" 1886
5. 8.59" 2003
6. 8.41" 2016 (to date)
* Norfolk had their first 90 degree day Thursday. The other
climate sites are still waiting for their first day.
(Avg Date / Last Yr):
* RIC: May 13 / May 12
* ORF: May 17 / May 12
* SBY: May 27 / Jun 1
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through this