Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211954 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 354 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the area this evening. Breezy northwest winds will develop later tonight and continue through Saturday. Otherwise, cool and more seasonable conditions will persist tonight through next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure centered over the northern Mid Atlc with an attendant cold frnt stretching down through the fa. A narrow line of shwrs associated with the front is currently pushing east through the area and will lead to only light rainfall amounts. Behind this line, there is some uncertainty over how much the radar will fill back in with some anafrontal pcpn. For now have carried mainly chance pops behind the frnt with likely pops over n/ne areas. Any additional rainfall amounts will be light. Temps also drop sharply behind the frnt along with a mstly cloudy sky. Temps tngt much cooler than previous nights...with lows in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry wx returns Sat with decreasing clouds and much cooler conditions under strong caa...high temps only in the low-mid 60s. Winds will be highest along the coast where sustained winds will average 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. Farther inland, gusts will average 25-30 mph. Winds then decrease Sat night into Sun as sfc high pressure builds over the SE states, which also allows temps to moderate back to more normal readings...highs in the upr 60s most areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A dry cold front crosses the area Mon shifting the winds back to the NW in the afternoon. CAA lags so expect a mild day under pt to mstly sunny skies. Highs in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. Cooler Mon nite with lows in the 40s to near 50 se. 1030mb Canadian high pressure builds south across the area Tues then slowly shifts east to a position off the New England coast Wed. Continued dry but cool. Highs Tue 60-65. Lows Tue nite in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed in the low to mid 60s. Lows Wed nite in the mid 40s to lwr 50s. Low pressure tracks from the nations mid section Wed into the Gt Lakes region Thurs. An assctd warm front progged to lift NNE across the mts and into PA Thu. Best support for pcpn with this feature remains north of the fa but ECMWF does show some weak lift as far south as VA late Thurs / Thurs nite. GFS a bit slower spreading the moisture east of mts. Kept low chc pops across northern half of fa during this time frame. Highs Thurs 65-70. Lows Thurs nite in the 50s. Warm Fri with highs in the upr 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front is approaching from the west this afternoon and is located over the VA piedmont as of 18z. A broken line of shra has developed ahead of the boundary, and could clip RIC through 19z. Otherwise, the front will push across the region this afternoon into early evening. Shra are expected to increase in coverage behind the front as additional energy arrives from the sw later this afternoon and evening. The onset of -shra will likely occur after 22z for SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG. Overall, pcpn is not expected to produce much of a vsby restriction, with the exception of only very brief restrictions in the leading line of shra. Cigs are expected to drop to mvfr in the wake of the boundary and could briefly drop to ifr at SBY later this evening. Drier air gradually arrives from the west later tonight through midday Saturday with cigs lifting from w-e then scattering through 18z Saturday. A nw wind will increase to 15-20kt late tonight into Saturday, with gusts up to 25-30kt, and locally up to 35kt at SBY. High pressure builds across the Southeast Saturday night into Sunday. A (dry) cold front sweeps across the area Monday, with high pressure returning Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Strong cold front on track to cross the marine area late this aftrn and evening. A quick wind shift to the NW and increase in speeds this evening to SCA levels with the real CAA surge not expected to arrive until after midnite into Sat morning. Current Gales/SCA`s will begin with the afternoon package as conditions are expected to develop within the next 12 hrs. Strongest gusts up to 40 KTS looks to be across the northern coastal waters and middle Che Bay with gusts to 35 KT across the south. Appears a secondary surge/increase in mixing Sat evening is likely so went ahead and extended the Gales/SCA`s into Sat night. The offshore NW flow will keep seas from building to much higher than 5-7 ft most areas (highest out 20 NM offshore). Bay waves build to 4-5 ft. Winds remain elevated on Sunday but should diminish to some extent and avg 15-20 KT. The next front crosses the area Mon. Appears another surge (albeit much weaker) will likely require SCA headlines late Monday or Monday night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633-635>638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634-654- 656-658. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.