Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241027 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 627 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary with weak waves of low pressure moving along it, will push farther southeast of the area today into Friday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will gradually build in from the northwest, then builds eastward across the Great Lakes and New England Friday afternoon through Sunday. Low pressure lifts offshore Monday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early this morning, a frontal boundary was just south of the region, extending fm well off the VA coast SW along the Outer Banks of NC and down into ern SC. Latest radar showed just isolated showers over NE NC and the south central VA Piedmont. Potent shortwave digs over the lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley during today, as the frontal boundary pushes farther SE of the region. A few weak waves of low pressure moving along the boundary, still could trigger isolated to sctd showers over extrm SE VA, but esply NE NC today into this evening. North to northeast flow will keep sky conditions partly sunny to mostly cloudy acrs the area. Cooler and less humid, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Trough axis slides north of the region tonight into Fri morning, along with the deepest moisture and best chances for measurable pcpn. Generally partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s most places, except upper 60s near the coast of SE VA and NE NC. Onshore flow persists Fri, as model soundings indicate lingering low level moisture. Perturbations in the fast west to northwest flow along with convergence near the coast will result in a slight chance PoP Fri aftn. Some modest instability is indicated, but will keep only shower wording due to stable onshore flow. Sky will average partly cloudy with highs in the lower 80s. Partly to mostly cloudy Fri night, as high pressure builds north of the region. Lows generally in the lower to mid 60s. Some locales in the Piedmont forecast to drop into the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds from the Great Lakes across the Saint Lawrence Valley and into New England Fri night through Sunday bringing mild and mainly dry conditions. Highs Sat through Sun will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, and mid/upper 60s at the coast. Low pressure (potentially tropical) eventually develops along a stalled frontal boundary off the Carolina Coast early next week. This could potentially bring some moisture into the region in the Monday- Wednesday timeframe, but PoPs are only 20-30% at this time. Expect a modestly strong ENE wind along the coast with strong high pressure N of the region and developing low pressure off the Carolina Coast. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows ranging through the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Early this morning, a frontal boundary was just south of the region, extending fm well off the VA coast SW along the Outer Banks of NC and down into ern SC. Sfc winds were NW-NE 3-10 kt at the TAF sites. Mainly VFR cigs at the TAF sites, except IFR/MVFR cigs at ECG. High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest today into Fri morning, pushing the frontal boundary well SE of the area. An uptick in NNE winds will occur during today, due to a surge of cool advection. Except for MVFR cigs at ECG early this morning, and maybe a few showers there during the day, expect mainly VFR conditions at the TAF sites today into Fri morning. High pressure slowly builds north of the region Fri into Sun, with periods of clouds due to onshore flow. Winds remain north or northeast. && .MARINE...
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Went ahead and cancelled the SCA for the middle of the bay and lower James river as the winds are not much more than 15 kts. Kept SCA`s up another few hours for the southern bay due to a few gusts around 20 kts. Winds continue to diminish through the afternoon. Flow remains ENE through the weekend as strong high pressure builds N of the region across New England. Winds should remain below SCA levels Sat, 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean, then increase more significantly early next week as low pressure (potentially tropical) develops along a stalled frontal boundary to our south then gradually lifts nne through the mid week period. A prolong period of onshore winds increases to 15-20kt/20-25kt ocean (potentially 25-30kt S of Cape Charles). Seas build to 3-4ft Sat, 5-7ft Sun, and potentially 6-10ft by Mon. This will likely result in an elevated risk of rip currents next week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632- 634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MPR

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