Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 111852 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ***NWS SURVEY TEAM WILL SURVEY THE DAMAGE IN VA BEACH TODAY TO DETERMINE THE NATURE OF THE DAMAGE*** ***NWS CONFIRMS STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IN THE CAPRON AREA AND ACROSS SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY*** LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC TROUGH NOW GENLY FROM JUST OFF THE SE VA COAST SW THOUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. ALOFT...WV SATELLITE REVEALS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH ERN TN/WRN NC ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY WEAK. AIRMASS FAIRLY STABLE RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE GULF STREAM OFF THE NC COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA EXCEPT FOR WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FOR THE AFTN EXPECT JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SE VA AND NE NC (POPS ONLY 40% AT MOST DUE TO FLOW TURNING ONSHORE). A LOT LESS SHEAR IS PRESENT THAN YESTERDAY AND PWATS PER 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE GENLY BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5" (COMPARED TO >2.0" ON YESTERDAY`S 12Z WAL SOUNDING). THUS...ONLY ANTICIPATE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS IF ANY CONVECTION AFFECTS THE REGION THIS AFTN. TEMPS ARE WARMING SLOWLY THUS FAR IN AREAS WITH LOW CLOUDS...BUT MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF AFTN SUNSHINE AND EVENTUAL DEEPER MIXING. HIGHS AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND AND 80-85 F NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION CONFINED TO NE NC...OTHERWISE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR N TO PARTLY CLOUDY S. LOWS LOWER TO MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 F FAR SE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DATA SHOWING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP SLIGHT CHC DIURNAL POPS ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC. OTW...PT TO MSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER AS H85 TMPS RISE A BIT. HIGHS 85-90 F. MAINLY DRY SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS 65-70 F. NEXT S/W PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE STATES SUN WITH A SFC THERMAL TROF PROGGED EAST OF THE MTS DURING THE AFTRN. KEPT 20 POP FOR AFTN TSTMS MOST AREAS EXCEPT SERN VA / NE NC. HIGHS U80S-L90S EXCEPT M80S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WET CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM AS MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE LOCKED WEST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AS AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS...HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE (MODEL DERIVED PRECIP WATERS ~ 2+ INCHES)...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON ALONG A SHARPENING LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH/BOUNDARIES...CLOSEST TO THE BEST INSTABILITY. STILL SOME SUBSIDENCE/WARM AIR ALOFT VISIBLE IN SOUNDINGS...SO WILL LEAVE AT LOW END CHANCE. HIGHS MON EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 100 INLAND. STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUES...EJECTING THE LOW NEWD INTO SE CANADA. THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES-TUES NIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE CLOSED LOW...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE FRONT AND STILL BEING DAY 6...WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MODELS DEPICT MARGINAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE > 2500 J/KG. ANOMALOUS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT THE ERN PORTION LIKELY STALLING OVER/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS WEDS ACROSS THE SE AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE MID ATLANTIC SLIDES OFFSHORE TNGT AS A FRNTAL BNDRY DROPS S OF THE AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRNT...MOIST CONDS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS TNGT...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY 2-4K FT CLOUDS BREAK. THIS MAY BE LESS LIKELY AT ORF AND RIC. INCLUDED MVFR CONDS FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE SOME IFR AS WELL. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SAT AND SUN WITH THE HI OFFSHORE AND LO PRES WELL NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. NEXT FRNT COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE REGION MON AND TUE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT E-NE BEHIND THE FRONT THRU THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SLIDING OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT. SLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS TUES-TUES NIGHT. PERSISTENT SLY FLOW MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...JDM

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