Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050133 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 933 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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CDFNT WILL BE ENTERING NW COUNTIES IN FA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN CONT TO THE SE THROUGH REST OF THE NGT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MNLY CONFINED TO NNE PORTIONS OF FA THIS. WILL KEEP 20-40% TWD THE CST (ESP ON THE ERN SHORE)...OTRW SKC-PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE SKIRTING THE NORTH CAROLINA BEACHES OVRNGT. PCPN FM THAT SYS XPCD TO RMN S OF FA. LO TEMPS 60S NW COUNTIES TO M70S ALG THE CST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FA WED. MODELS NOW PUSH BEST MSTR AND SPRT FOR ANY PCPN SOUTH INTO NC KEEPING MOST IF THE FA DRY DRNG THE DAYLIGHT HRS. KEPT SLGHT CHC XTREME SWRN CNTYS ARND 21Z OR SO. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID AS DP TMPS DROP. HIGHS L-M90S XCT M-80S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BLO 100. FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRNT WED NIGHT BUT STILL PROGGED ACROSS NC AT 12Z THU. SOME WAA AT H85 NOTED TO PRODUCE SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN MOST CNTYS AFTR MIDNIGHT. OTW...PT CLDY WITH LOWS M60S NORTH TO L-M70S SOUTH. WRM FRNT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AKQ FA THU BUT HOW FAR??? THE EXACT LCTN (BEST GUESS IS ACROSS SRN VA ATTM) WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE POP/TMP AND THUNDER FCST AS LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM THE WEST ENHANCING THE MSTR FIELDS DRNG THE AFTRN/NIGHT. POPS RAMP UP TO HIGH CHC DRNG THE AFTRN AND LIKELY AT NIGHT. HIGHS 85-90 BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. LOWS THU NIGHT U60S-L70S. MODELS DIFFERING ON FRI WRT HOW FAST THE SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE KEEPS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DRNG THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TO CHC POPS DRNG THE AFTRN. A RARE SUMMER WEDGE PSBL FRI ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE TMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ABV 80. OTW...HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WDSPRD RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY WITH QPF`S ARND ONE INCH...HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI NIGHT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES PULLING OFFSHORE. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LINGERING POPS FRI NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. WEEKEND THEN SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH FAIRLY LO HUMIDITY AND HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MON AND TUE AS MORE UPR-LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FM THE W. WILL CAP POPS AT 30% ATTM WITH THIS BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE LOW ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC. A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA LIFTED N FROM THE LOW AND BRIEFLY AFFECTED ECG...BEFORE DISSIPATING. FARTHER NW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN PA BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/WRN MD/NRN VA...BEFORE TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SBY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING...SO A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEGINNING AT 23Z. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AT SBY...BUT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FALLS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... MARINE FORECAST UPDATED WITH THE SCA OVER NRN CSTL WTRS EXTENDED TO 4 AM WED AND A NEW SCA ADDED OVER THE BAY UNTIL 1 AM. THE SCA OVER THE BAY WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT TNGT. WINDS THEN DECREASE AFTR MIDNITE AS THE FRNT NRS THE WTRS AND DROPS INTO THE REGION INTO THE MORNG HRS. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO PSBL WITH ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVENG. NW FLOW THEN FOLLOWS FOR WED AFTN...WITH WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASING. N WINDS AOB 10 KT WED NIGHT BCM ELY THUR WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING NW OF THE AREA. A COMPLEX AREA OF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM THE W THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH SCA CONDS PSBL DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LO WHICH IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS

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