Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311750 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1250 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1032MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...AND A TROUGH IS PRESENT TO THE LEE- SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVER VA/NC. CAA LINGERS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT OUT OF THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AS OF 10 AM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY. A NW WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NW OVER THE ERN SHORE. OTHERWISE...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY TODAY...BUT COLD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER- MID 40S ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE MD ERN SHORE. TEMPS DROP FAST THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S NE TO THE LWR-MID 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE HANDLING OF THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. A MORE NRN TRACK PREVAILS...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PA/NJ SUN NIGHT/MON. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A LOW CHC FOR -SN/IP ACRS THE FAR NW COUNTIES SUN MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MEASURABLE GIVEN WEAK LIFT BUT WILL HAVE A 20% POP ACRS THE NW PIEDMONT FOR NOW. THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY LIFTS A BIT BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SO AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 50S WITHOUT MUCH CHC FOR ANY PRECIP. BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE SFC LOW REACHES SRN IN/OH. STILL ONLY A CHC POP FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 THROUGH 03Z...WITH LIKELY POPS W OF I-95 FROM 00Z-03Z. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA...BUT WILL GO WITH A RA/IP MIXTURE AT ONSET OF PCPN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO DRY AIR (DEW PTS IN 20S) EVEN AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 32 F (IN THE 40S). XPCG MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVR THE FA AS S WNDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THUS...RA WILL BE THE ONLY FCST P-TYPE SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG. TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY SUN EVE (IN THE U30S N...L/M40S S)...THEN RISE THEREAFTER INTO MON MRNG (INTO THE 50S ACRS SE VA..40S ELSEWHERE). BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON...DRYING TREND BEGINS...GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BUT ONLY BY A FEW HRS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS IN THE AFTN OVER INTERIOR VA AND NC AND SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHC FOR AFTN PRECIP LOOKS TO SHIFT TO NE ZONES. DUE TO WARM START TO THE DAY...THINK COLD AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO AKQ CWA BEFORE SUNSET. WILL CARRY JUST RAIN AS PTYPE IN THE AFTN EXCEPT ACRS THE FAR N AFTER 21Z. HI TEMPS FM THE MID/UPPER 40S NNW TO THE UPPER 50S SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OTHER THAN SOME SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER CSTL WTRS ERLY MON EVE...EXPECT CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030+ MB HIGH APPRCHS FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO L20S SOUTH XCPT M20S SERN BEACH AREAS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE 30S. MSTLY CLR TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH MID WEEK SYSTM AND OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING AND MOISTURE SCENARIOS...SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST CONTINUES UNTIL MORE MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE SEEN. HOWEVER... THE TREND IS SLOWER IN BRINGING MSTR NORTH INTO THE FA AS SRN STREAM LOW DVLPS IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THEN TRACKS NE ALONG THE SE AND PSBLY MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE PULLING NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL GUID SUGGESTS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN. TRENDED DRIER/WARMER ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. XPCT INCRG CLDNS WED NIGHT. WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS WED NIGHT. CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED NITE WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20% POP FOR MIXED SNOW/RAIN LATE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS. LOWS ARND FREEZING NRN MOST CNTYS TO THE M-U30S OVR THE SOUTH. RAIN CHCS CONT THU XCPT FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SE TO THE 30S OVER THE NORTH. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES...THE STRONG HIGH PRS KEEPS SRN STREAM LOW SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FA. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS WINTER GIVEN NO REAL BLOCKING PATTERN SEEN. ITS SOLN WOULD BE COLDER AND DRIER. ANTHR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS SYSTM BY FRIDAY. DCRG CLDNS THU NITE. LOWS IN THE 20S. MSTLY SUNNY FRI. HIGHS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVRHD. BKN HIGH LVL CLDS WILL OVRSPRD THE RGN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPRCHG LOW PRS SYSTM. CLOUDS XPCTD TO LWR INTO THE MID LVLS AFTR 12Z SUN (10-15K FT). NW WNDS DMNSHG TO LESS THAN 10 KTS NXT FEW HRS. OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. RAIN ENDS MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS TUES AND WEDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW WEDS NIGHT. && .MARINE... HAVE DROPPED SCA HEADLINES OVR THE RIVERS WITH 1 PM UPDATE. SCA`S CONT OVR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND AND CSTL WTRS THRU THE AFTRN. PVS DSCN: REPLACED GALES WITH SCA`S WITH 10 AM UPDATE. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO CANCELLED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY AS TMPS SLOWLY WARM AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS. PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS OVER THE WATERS DEPICTS LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD OVER THE OH VALLEY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH LOW LEVEL CAA HAS RESULTED IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...CAA WANES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 30 KT. HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON. 6-9 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY AND FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5 FT ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SLY FLOW AOB 15 KT RETURNING TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG NWLY SURGE. A PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDS TO 6 TO 9 FT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES AND WEDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MPR AVIATION...MPR/SAM MARINE...MPR/SAM

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