Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291102 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 702 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LAST REMNANTS OF RAIN ARE PUSHING ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS OF 345 AM...WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE CAD WEDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT WITH VISIBILITIES AVERAGING 3-5 MILES AND MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1-2 MILES. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THEREFORE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 900-1000 AM (DO NOT ANTICIPATE THEM TO TANK AT SUNRISE) AND FOR VERY LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NC FINALLY GETS PUSHED SWD THIS AFTN/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TODAY... ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SW. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS N-NE OF THE RICHMOND AREA INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY. COOL TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S (POSSIBLY UPPER 40S NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY BUT CONTINUED CLOUDY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF COOL DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY AND CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SHEAR APART. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...DESPITE LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTN. THE CNTRL PLAINS SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER THERE ARE GREATER DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS IN PRECIP PLACEMENT. DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN/HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIP DIMINISHES. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FINALLY REBOUND TWD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS THE REGION SITS WITH THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NE. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING SWD INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 300-600FT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH VSBY OF 2-4SM THROUGH 14Z. A SIMILAR SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING THAT CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN FOR RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ

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