Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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327 FXUS61 KAKQ 101138 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 638 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure builds into the area today through Tuesday. A strong cold front crosses the area late Tuesday, with markedly colder temperatures surging into the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The current surface analysis indicates ~996mb low pressure lifting newd toward Atlantic Canada. A second area of low pressure was noted pushing across the Adirondack Mtns of Nrn NY, with the associated dry cold front pushing across the local area this morning. To the south, ~1030mb sfc high pressure continues to slowly build east across the west-central Gulf coast. IR satellite imagery showing the primary upper trough axis swinging across the region toward the DelMarVa coast this morning. Clouds are quickly scouring out along and behind the exiting trough/cold front, with dewpoints quickly dropping off as well back into the teens and lower 20s. Early morning lows will generally range from the low/mid 20s for much of the area to the upper 20s/low 30s for SE VA/NE NC. Roads that had been wet will become slick and any snow that remains on the ground will become quite compacted. No warnings/advisories are in effect at this time. However, an SPS to highlight the potential of black ice early this morning remains. Clear and cold today with high temps in the upper 30s to around 40 F north to the mid/upper 40s SE. Partly to mostly clear and cold tonight. Early morning lows Monday morning in the 20s to around 30 SE coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Genly a dry and quieter period to begin the work week. Sfc winds become SW as high pressure continues to build east across the Gulf coast region. This will moderate temps slightly, though temperatures remain near or a little below normal. Sky will avg partly cloudy north to mostly sunny/clear south for the most part, with increasing clouds Late Monday into Tuesday ahead of the first of a series of strong clipper systems that will cross the region from mid to late week. The lead disturbance and associated strong cold front will again usher in markedly cooler/drier air across the eastern third of the CONUS Tuesday through Midweek. Highs Mon and Tue mainly in the mid/upper 40s N to the lower 50s SE. Front crosses the local area Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. After highs in the 40s to low 50s on Tuesday, temperatures tumble into the 20s/30s Tuesday night, with early morning lows in the teens to 20s Wednesday morning. Brisk NW winds will quickly knock wind chills down into the teens and 20s Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term begins with the longwave trough entrenched over the eastern half of the US, with much cooler air in place in the wake of the cold front. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day of the week ahead, with temperatures struggling to climb into the low to mid 30s in strong post-frontal CAA. Lows Wednesday night once again in the teens to 20s. The second clipper system will cross the area Thu/Thu night, and swings another strong cold front through the region Thu night/Friday. At this point, the track of the shortwave does not appear to be far enough south or have enough moisture to cause any significant weather problems, other than to reinforce a cold air mass that will be in place through the work week. But there remains some uncertainty with the models after Thu night as the 00z GFS still keeps the low track to the north of the area, with the 00z ECMWF now brings the second low on Thursday into Friday farther to the south and has a little more moisture with which to work. For now, have left a mention of some light snow showers or possibly a few flurries on Thursday into Thursday night. The warm advection with the second wave could be a little stronger. Also, if enough moisture could be advected northward from the Gulf coast, this wave could be worth watching. However, right now any pcpn would be expected to be light. The pattern finally breaks heading into the weekend with the long wave trough exiting and the flow become more zonal as a weak subtropical ridge begins to build over Southern Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. For temperatures have leaned toward the colder Superblend/National blend of models Wed night into Friday, which is a few degrees cooler than the MEX numbers. For the weekend, have remain on the cool side, but with the high sliding off the coast, could see temperatures recovering a little more than shown. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Clearing trend continues this morning, as upper vort max has pivoted offshore this morning. A gradual return to VFR has occurred this morning from west to east. Expect VFR conditions and a clear sky today...w/more benign weather as high pressure builds across the Gulf coast through early next week.
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&& .MARINE... Will maintain SCA`s for all the waters except the Rivers thru 100 PM (srn coast/Currituck Snd), 400 PM (Ches Bay), or 700 PM (nrn coast), as WNW winds 15-25 kt fm CAA affect the area. Seas 5-7 ft early this morning, will subside to 2-4 ft tonight. Sub-SCA conditions expected for tonight thru at least Tue morning, as sfc high pressure slides acrs the srn/SE states then off the coast. Next chance for SCA conditions comes late Tue into Wed evening, as a cold front crosses the area ushering in strong NW winds. Low-end gales may be possible, esply over the nrn coastal wtrs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...MAM MARINE...TMG

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