Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171145 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS. A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE U20S TO M30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING LO- LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG/LO STRATUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE NC...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z. W/NW FLOW THEN CONTINUES INTO THE AFTN HRS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.
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&& .MARINE... A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC. OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3 FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...ALB/MAM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS

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