Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241046 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 646 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to influence the weather across the Mid Atlantic region through the weekend...with little to no chances for rain. Warmer and more humid conditions return by late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Another relatively cool morning across the area as temperatures have dropped into the upper 50`s to low 60`s. The surface high is oriented along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, and is progged to push offshore through the day. The ridge axis remains on the region, with generally onshore flow near the coast, but winds become southerly inland. This will allow for moderating low level thicknesses and slightly warmer daytime temperatures. Highs forecast solidly in the mid 80`s inland to low 80`s near the coast. Mid-level moisture remains trapped under the strong subsidence inversion, resulting in additional cloud cover inland. Hi-resolution guidance continues to spread light precipitation over the western Atlantic westward toward the southeast coastal areas as a weak inverted trough drops under the surface high. A weak perturbation in the northwest flow drops into the area this afternoon, coinciding with theta-e advection along the coast. Based on the consistency in the hi-res guidance, have opted to increase POP`s to low end chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Southside Hampton Roads southward to the Currituck Sound. Little moisture above 800mb will result in only light precipitation and rainfall amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch at best (for those that see any precip). Otherwise, sky becomes partly cloudy to mostly cloudy across the far southeast area. The surface high pushes farther offshore tonight with flow becoming southerly, but light. Another night of near seasonable lows expected, but slightly warmer than this morning as dewpoints warm a few degrees. An upstream low amplitude wave drops into the region tonight, resulting in an increase in mid level clouds over the Piedmont late. Otherwise, mostly clear sky expected. Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure slides offshore Thursday as upper level high pressure centers over the Deep South. Return flow commences with dewpoints warming back into the mid to upper 60`s, resulting in more humid conditions. 850Mb temperatures around 18C (+1 standard deviations) creep back into the area, as southerly flow pushes low level thicknesses warmer. The result is temperatures warming into the upper 80`s to low 90`s under a partly cloudy sky. Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains ahead of an approaching cold front will result in a lee/thermal trough over the Piedmont. However, limited moisture and a lack of appreciable forcing will keep the forecast dry. Mild Thursday night with lows in the upper 60`s to low 70`s. The upper high centers over the Mid-Atlantic states Friday, resulting in a hot day. 850Mb temperatures creep upwards of 18-20C (approaching +2 standard deviations). The upstream cold front and return flow will help push temperatures solidly into the mid 90`s (+1 to +1.5 standard deviations) inland. Cooler along the coast. Thicknesses indicate temps could potentially warm into the mid to upper 90`s. The air mass remains continental with the high overhead, with dewpoints only forecast in the mid to upper 60`s. This will help keep heat indices in check. The front drops into the forecast area late Friday, but with the upper high over the area, dry conditions will prevail. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Benign and dry conditions are expected to prevail late this week through the weekend into early next week as a mid/upper level anticyclone becomes anchored over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The presence of the high will keep the main upper jet energy will north of the local area resulting in dry conditions through at least Monday. The ridge may get displaced to the south just enough by Tuesday to support a minimal (20%) chc of showers/tstms. Highs Saturday through Tuesday should range from the mid 80s at the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Lows through the period average in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure remains over the region today, with scattered cu expected inland this afternoon. Another area of mid level clouds expected over the far southeast local area as an inverted trough over the western Atlantic approaches the coast. Light showers and possible a rumble of thunder not out of the question for KECG. MVFR ceilings also possible, especially KECG with any showers. OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR with no precipitation is forecast through Sunday. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain near the coast today into tonight with a light e wind becoming se tonight. The high begins to push farther offshore Thursday into Thursday night. The wind will become ssw at 10-15kt later Thursday into Thursday night, with a solid 15kt possible for a few hours overnight. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday and crosses the area late Friday night into Saturday. The wind will be sw ahead of the front Friday into Friday night, before becoming northerly behind the front. SCA conditions are not expected in the wake of the front due to a lack of caa. High pressure then settles off the New England coast Sunday into early next week resulting in a potential period of prolonged onshore flow. Seas average 2-3ft through Saturday with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. Seas possibly build to 3-4ft Sunday into early next week with onshore flow. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...SAM/LSA MARINE...AJZ

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