Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251851 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 251 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY) AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET. QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S. LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM, INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD/DAP MARINE...BMD

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