Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021952 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS. ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT U60S-M70S. BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON. THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO THE SSW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS. && .MARINE...
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SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST. WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE..MAS

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