Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250741 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 341 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure prevails over the region through Tuesday. A weak front drops into the region Tuesday night...then lingers across the region through most of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low pres and assctd convection (which prompted the SVR warning for Dorchester county) will move east of the lwr MD ern shore early this morning. Heat wave to peak today as the broad upper ridge dampens over the Ohio Valley but remains firmly entrenched over the wrn Atlantic. 1000-500mb thickness values rise to around 5820m over the Piedmont and 850mb temperatures average around 22-23C across the region. This easily supports highs in the upper 90s to near 100 across the area with even lwr 90s at the immediate coast. Dewpoints remain in the low/mid 70s across most of the fa through peak heating hours. This results in widespread heat indices between 105 to 110 (highest across inland portions of SE VA and NE NC). Thus...heat advisory remains in effect for the entire fa except MD beaches where heat index values peak out around 103.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Airmass remains capped so no convection expected thru 22Z. Isltd tstms psbl across the nrn most zones this evening due to any mt convection that may drift east. OTW...another warm and humid night. Lows in the mid-upr 70s. Tuesday starts off dry as the high prs continues to dominate. Remaining hot as 1000-500mb thickness values only drop to around 5780-5800m and 850mb temperatures drop only to 20-21C. This supports highs in the mid 90s. Dewpoints remain in the low/mid 70s with heat indices arnd 105 with heat advisory criteria likely reached again over the southern two thirds of the fa before any convection develops. The ridge breaks down enough Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening to allow a weak front to drop into the area and shortwave energy to cross the mountains. Models a bit faster in developing tstms across the fa by 18Z. Will carry a 30-40% chc of showers/tstms west of the Ches Bay with slght chc pops to the ern shore. No severe expected but gusty winds and locally hvy downpours possible in any tstm. Tstm chcs continue Tues nite as the boundary sags south across the fa. Best support for tstms shifts towards the coast after midnite. Still warm and humid with lows in the mid/upper 70s. Westerly flow aloft will allow for the boundary to stall over the region Wednesday. Enough moisture and support for chc pops across the area. Highest chc (30-40%) will be from central/s-central VA to se VA and ne NC. Highs reach the low 90s under a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be highest across se VA/ne NC with heat indices approaching 105 once again.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast allows zonal/westerly flow aloft to settle across the region through the rest of the week. A series of weather disturbances will pass across the region as a thermal boundary/lee trough sets up over the area. This will provide a focus for thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each passing model run and will therefore maintain more broadbrushed POP grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample moisture present across the area. Factor in weak steering flow aloft and the anticipated impacts from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around 100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching 105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure off the SE U.S. coast will once again be the dominant weather feature today. Other than some mvfr fog at ksby no visibility restrictions are expected this morng. A dry day today with SW winds around 10 knots. A few higher gusts are possible. OUTLOOK...A cold front drops into the area late Tuesday and then stalls over northern portions of the Mid Atlantic States. A daily chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday through Friday. && .MARINE... Generally quiet/benign conditions expected the rest of this week. Winds generally s-sw aob 15kt during this time as high pressure remains steadfast over the Southeast Coast. Meanwhile, westerly flow aloft will allow a series of weather disturbances to cross the region and keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Seas average 2-3ft...waves average 1-2ft. There may be a surge in sw winds to 15kt srn Ches Bay/Sound and 15-20kt coastal waters Monday night ahead of the approaching weather, however SCA flags are not anticipated at the moment. Seas may briefly build to 3-4ft nrn coastal waters...waves to 2-3ft srn Bay Monday night. && .CLIMATE...
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While its certainly going to be hot thru Tue, climatologically this is the hottest time of the year with several heat waves having occurred in the past that have been more intense than what we will experience. No records were set Sunday. The only record high in jeopardy is today at ecg. * RECORD HIGHS: Records Mon (7/25) Tue (7/26) * RIC: 105 (2010) 100 (1940) * ORF: 105 (2010) 100 (1940) * SBY: 100 (2010) 102 (1940) * ECG: 97 (1949) 97 (1949)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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