Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290551 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 151 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A WEAK SHEAR BNDRY ALOFT AND A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVIDENT ON SAT/RADAR ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WANED AS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE CUT POPS TO 20% (MAINLY NW PIEDMONT) OR LESS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. CLOUD COVER AVERAGES OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS 65-70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... OUR PD OF SUMMER-LIKE WX TO CONT THROUGH THE WKND. WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS THE FA BEGINNING FRI AS HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY. SO FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2 OF FA WITH ONLY 10-20% POPS ELSW. BY SAT...CDFNT PUSHES SE THROUGH THE OH VLY...RMNG FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY WNW AND MNLY SKC TWD THE CST. POPS 20% POP INLAND...10% AT THE CST. CDFNT FM THE NW CONTS TO SLOLY APPROACH SUN. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE P/MSNY. WILL INCRS POPS TO 40-60% FAR NNW PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS...TAPERING TO 10% IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC. THE BULK OF PCPN XPCD TO BE ALG AND BEHIND THE FNT (AND THAT IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL LT SUN). HI TEMPS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS FRI NGT M/U60S. HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN FM THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND...70S TO L80S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z/28 GFS/ECMWF EACH INDICATE THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING W. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF DOES STILL PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING RETURNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS AVERAGE 30-50% SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...THEN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NNE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S N...TO LOW 80S S. COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CURRENTLY WILL FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S N TO NEAR 80 S...BUT THESE VALUES COULD BE COOLER DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CALM-LIGHT S WIND AOB 5 KT WILL PERSIST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL THRU 12Z. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF SE VA (AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL)...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG AT THE TAF SITES. SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 FT AGL POSSIBLE 10-12Z KRIC/KSBY. FOR TODAY...A SE WIND OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-5K FT AGL EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA...BUT TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI- SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES JUST N OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WASHES OUT FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15KT THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SSW WIND OF 10-15KT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SOLID 15KT POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. A 10-15KT SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY BEFORE THE FLOW WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING NE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES WITH ONSHORE FLOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...SAM MARINE...AJZ

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