Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 051548 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT 2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z. THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED. FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG 20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB- SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE NORTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW. ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30% POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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