Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271807 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 207 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS MORE VIGOROUS THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE PRODUCED A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS NE AREAS OF THE FA (NAMELY THE EASTERN SHORE) EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS NOW PUSHED OFFSHORE BUT LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIDEWATER. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER PCPN WILL POSE A CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS MOST LIKELY THESE FACTORS WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE CHANCE OF SCT TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER LIMITING FULL HEATING. WILL ALSO CARRY BEST CHC OF PCPN LATER TODAY ACROSS W/NW PORTIONS OF THE FA AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MTNS. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S. CHANCE OF PCPN DECREASES TNGT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST LO-LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC TO LO-END CHC POPS OVER THE FA. SKIES STILL PRTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE POP (30%) OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF US-58). WEDNESDAY... WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UPWARD AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BUILDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW, COURTESY OF SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL RAMP UP A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY ON SSW FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST, WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BLOWING UP A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20% AND CONFINED TO AREAS W OF I-95. OTHERWISE, HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY BRINGING ISOLD TSTM CHANCES TO THE FA THU AFTN...THEN A CHANCE OF SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS THU EVE/NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. HOT AND HUMID THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NOT AS WARM FRI- SUN WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS MAINLY 85- 90...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BEHIND THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THERE IS NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO ORGANIZE ANY FORCING. FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM...AND WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS THAN MORE...BUT IN ALL CASES...SUSPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. SBY COULD SEE SOME FOG THOUGH AFTER GETTING NEARLY 1.5" OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE TRADITIONAL DAYTIME CU FORMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... WK SFC HI PRES REMAINS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH TDA. SSE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. SSE WINDS AOB 15 KT SHOULD CONT INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU MIDWEEK WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SSW WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THU-FRI. WAVES 1-2 FT; SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...ALB/JDM

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