Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060951 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 451 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN VA AND EASTERN NC. SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. SEASONABLY CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH READINGS ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. FOR TODAY...DRY/QUIT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HIGH REMAINING ACRS THE REGION...THEN DRIFTING OFF TO THE NE AND OFF THE DELMARVA LATER THIS AFTN. DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...GENLY LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE S 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN WELL INLAND (REMAINING ONSHORE FROM THE E/NE NEAR THE COAST). HIGHS TODAY WILL AVG IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... PARTLY CLOUDY/DRY THIS EVENING ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS)...PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TRACKING EAST ACRS FLORIDA SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SPAWN ANTHR STORM OFF THE FLA COAST TONIGHT WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN. THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE CSTL TROF SUN NIGHT THEN WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE VA CAPES MON. THE LATEST NAM REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE TRACK THAN THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS. STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A MARINE/WIND IMPACT FOR THE AKQ CWA...A MAJOR IMPACT FOR MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD SUN NIGHT/MON. FOR SENSIBLE WX...WILL FAVOR THE SOMEWHAT DRIER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALTHOUGH EVEN THE NAM GENLY KEEPS NW 1/2 OF THE CWA DRY ON SUN. GRIDS WILL INDICATE CHC POPS SPREADING NE ALONG THE NC AND SERN VA COAST THRU THE DAY SUN WITH CHC POPS SPRDG NORTH ALONG THE DELMARVA SUN NITE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRT PCPN TYPE AS RAIN. HIGHS SUN MID 40S IN THE CLOUDS ACRS THE FAR SE...TO AROUND 50 F FARTHER INLAND. LOWS SUN NITE 30-35 F...EXCEPT 35-40 F ALONG THE COAST. THE FAVORED TRACK SUGGESTS A LITTLE LESS WIND THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE STRNG / GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH SUN AND SUN NITE OVR VA BCH / NRN OUTER BANKS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDRESSED THIS IN THE HWO. THE OCEAN LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE MON WITH THE NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY DIVING SE FROM THE GT LAKES AND OHIO VLLY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE PRBLY WILL BE A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW...MSTR QUICKLY INCRS WEST TO EAST BY AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MOST AREAS BY MON AFTN. AS THE MSTR FROM THE UPR LVL LOW CROSSES THE MTS. PCPN TYPE REMAINS LIQUID WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45-50 F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE STARTING TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS COLD AIR ARRIVES AND THEN IS SLOW TO LEAVE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N/NW PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AS A POTENT VORT LOBE ROTATES THRU. THE WX THEN LOOKS DRY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPR 30S NW TO THE LOW/MID 40S SE. HIGHS WED/THU MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST. EXPECT INCREASING HI CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...ESPLY OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC AS LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE FL/GA CST TNGT INTO SUN MORNG. STRONG OR VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED OVR SE VA AND NE NC FM LATE SUN MORNG INTO MON MORNG...AS THE LO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE WELL OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHC FOR RAIN SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT MAINLY AT ECG/ORF. OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON THRU TUE ACRS THE AREA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PCPN. && .MARINE...
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`S UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE AND WE GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS DURING TODAY. HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 7-12 FT (HIGHEST S) FOR NOW...AND THAT COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE GIVEN EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LO. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MON MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO EARLY TUE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL AND STONY CREEK...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. HAVE CANCELLED THE WARNING AT RICHMOND/WESTHAM AS WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE THERE. THIS ALL DUE TO THE COMBO OF RECENT SNOWMELT AND THE RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ

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