Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031857 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 257 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT 01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE U60S-L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND. THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE. PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE 20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO L80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING. WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD. MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS. IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR/DAP MARINE...MPR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.