Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250617 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 217 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... QUIET WX THIS EVE. SFC HI RMNS OFF THE MDATCL CST. MILD NGT W/ LGT S WNDS AND SLO RISE IN DEWPTS. MSTLY SKC WITH LO TEMPS U50S- L60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH PROVIDES SUMMER LIKE CNDTNS THRU THE PRD. A WEAK TROF DVLPS TUE...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER E OF THE MTS. A MORE DEFINED LEE TROF PROGGED WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH ADVANCING MSTR FROM THE OHIO/TN VLLY SHUD ALLOW FOR SCT AFTN/EVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. KEPT 20-30 POP WED ALONG/W OF I95 CORRIDOR. HIGHS EACH DAY M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SE-SW DIRECTION...BECOMING BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MON EVENING...EXPECT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE SW WITH EACH PASSING DAY. MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .MARINE... A QUIET PERIOD IS FORECAST IN THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SE AND SW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA MAINLY OVER THE BAY DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WERE APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE BAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...SCA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. IN THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS HAVE FAILED TO INCREASE ABOVE 2 FEET. A GRADUAL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT IS INDICATED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...BMD MARINE...LSA

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