Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010759 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS ARE LOCALLY CONFINED TO BAY-SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE...AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 5 AM. OTHERWISE...1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01 NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD. MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT. GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI. && .MARINE... SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS/LSA MARINE...MAS

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