Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270906 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 406 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG 2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT ANTICIPATED. INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40 IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT. OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. && .MARINE... EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS. LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW. ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2 FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081- 089>091-093>098. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633- 635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LKB MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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