Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280746 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 346 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT (WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE DELMARVA THROUGH NORTHERN VA INTO SOUTHERN WV)...WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ONCE IT REACHES THE NC BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN OVER NC THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE THE FROPA...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED TODAY AND THIS COUPLED WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD AFTN/EVE SHWR OR TSTM. WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT (PER THE NAM/GFS)...AND THEREFORE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR WDLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE AND THEREFORE WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64. SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN (STILL IN THE 20% RANGE) WILL BE ALONG AND N-NE OF I-64. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE...WITH MID/UPR 80S INLAND (NOT AS WARM AS TODAY THANKS TO ONSHORE WINDS). LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGH SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AS WE BREAK INTO THE WARM-SECTOR ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND NE STATES. VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON/LABOR DAY...WITH GENLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUN...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ON MON (MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S) AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS INTO A SFC TROUGH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AND WILL CARRY 40% POPS ALL ZONES (MAINLY JUST 20% SUN AFTN/EVENING). WILL FAVOR THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TUE/WED...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT...MAKING MUCH OF TUE MAINLY DRY AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE 20-30% POPS BY LATE AFTN AND THEN HAVE 30% CHC POPS ALL AREAS TUE EVENING INTO EARLY WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE N WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AND SPREAD BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF WAS AT ECG WHERE THE DEW POINT SPREAD WAS 2 DEGREES. WITH NO FOG DEVELOPING PRIOR TO TAF ISSUANCE AND A WESTERLY BREEZE PRESENT...DECIDED TO KEEP VFR THERE AS WELL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS CAREFULLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHIFTS THE WINDS TO NORTHERLY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTS ARE INDICATED. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST OVER SE PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR AFTN TSTMS FOR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE SLIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE MOUTH OF THE BAY TOWARD DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED GUST MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS IN THE BAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING. WAVEWATCH IS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDOING THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. AS OF 07Z...SEAS HAD ONLY REACHED 4 FT AT BUOY 09 OFF THE MD/DE COAST AND WERE DECREASING OVER THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. SCA AND SCHS ARE MAINTAINED AND EXPIRATION TIME REMAINS AT 22Z. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW 5 FT (SCA CRITERIA) TOWARD EVENING. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE SEAS DO NOT CATCH UP TO NEAR WAVEWATCH. SWELL PERIODS OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS WERE OCCURRING AT THE COASTAL BUOYS AS A RESULT OF CRISTOBAL. WAVE PERIODS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME SE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE BY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF 20NM LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE BY AFTN DUE TO SUBSIDING SEAS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LSA

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