Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 202020 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure traverses New England through tonight, then slides offshore on Tuesday. A frontal boundary stalls north of the area Tuesday night. Low pressure tracks well south of the region Tuesday night through Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sfc high pressure centered over Eastern Canada extends south across the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. Although not quite as warm as Sunday, today has still featured mild temperatures and a mainly clear sky. High pressure will traverse New England tonight with light N-NE winds becoming east late. BUFKIT soundings show an increase in high-level moisture overnight in NW flow. Will show a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky. Lows in the 30s to near 40.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The high slides off the New England coast Tuesday ahead of a weakening mid-level cold front approaching from the west. Meanwhile, a strong upper low develops near the TX/LA border and reaches the MS Gulf Coast by the end of the day. High pressure remains offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday as the strong low reaches the west coast of FL by 00z Thu. Partly to mostly sunny and mild Tuesday with highs from the mid/upr 50s at the coast to the low 60s inland. Increasing clouds Tuesday night with a slight chc of showers across the Piedmont late. Will maintain slight chc to low end chc pops (20-30%) Wednesday (along/west of the Bay) as a weak upr trough passes overhead. The 12z NAM is the most bullish with precip chances on Wednesday although mostly discounting it as this point given that consensus keeps most of the moisture south of the local area nearest the Gulf low. Lows Tuesday night in the 40s. Highs Wednesday in the 60s. Dry and mild Wednesday night with high pressure sitting offshore and the strong low impacting FL. Lows in the upr 40s to mid 50s. By Thursday, increasing WSW develops due to the position of the offshore low and a deepening trough over the northern Plains/Midwest. Models indicating enough moisture present for isolated showers (~20% PoPs). Turning warmer with highs 70-75, except some 60s along the immediate coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The models are in good agreement in the extended range showing a flat ridge over the eastern US for the second half of the work week. That ridge will amplify into Saturday as a trough lifts out of the central plains into the Great Lake states which will knock the ridge down by Sunday and return the area to more westerly zonal flow. Overall, this will lead to another period of above normal temperatures along with a chance for showers and psbl tstrms as the cold front crosses the area Saturday. On Wed night into Thursday as the high slides off the coast, the flow will turn sw and should see a good warm up ahead of a weak front that tries to drop in from the north. The guidance suggest the possibility of some light showers especially across the northern part of the cwa Thursday into Thursday night. But with the area having been dry for the last several weeks will not mention any chance of rain with this weak front as the ridging aloft may end up keeping the front just north of the area. Expect above normal temperatures with highs in the uppers 60s to the mid 70s. The next strong sfc low will lift from the central plains into the Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday dragging a cold front across the region on Saturday. The guidance is in better agreement for a swath of moisture and marginal dynamics with the fropa so went ahead and added thunder to the grids Sat. Behind the front, temperatures will return closer to normal but still above normal, but just not 20 to 25 above normal as Thursday into Saturday will be. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the 18z TAF period. OUTLOOK...Increasing clouds late Tue with the small chance of showers overnight into Wed as a low pressure system dives south of the area. Generally VFR conditions should continue through Friday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue today as sfc high pres slides in from the west. Brief CAA surge expected this morng in association with pres rises as the high builds in, but expect winds only up to ~15 kt. North winds then drop to ~10 kt later this aftn with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. The high builds directly over the wtrs tngt into Tue with winds aob 10 kt. Sub-SCA S/SW flow then persists until Fri ahead of the next cold front, which crosses the wtrs over the weekend with SCA conditions psbl. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Thursday 2/23 and Friday 2/24: 2/23 2/24 RIC 75 in 1985 82 in 1985 ORF 79 in 1975 82 in 2012 SBY 74 in 1943 77 in 2012 ECG 77 in 1975 79 in 1985 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...AKQ

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