Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 110255 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through Monday night, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation. A more prominent low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night, pushing a strong cold front through the local area. Expect markedly colder temperatures for Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The current surface analysis indicates a large area of high pressure (~1030 mb)centered from south Texas to the Gulf coast states. Low pressure genly prevails north of the eastern Great Lakes. A shortwave aloft is diving ESE from the midwest and is bringing mainly mid level clouds to the northern 1/2 of the CWA. These clouds and some low level mixing (albeit weak) will tend to keep tonight`s lows from being as cold as they otherwise would be if sfc high pressure were centered over the area. Partly-mostly cloudy north and partly cloudy to mostly clear south. Still did undercut MOS by a few degrees in snow covered areas, with lows mainly ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Skies again turn mainly sunny behind the departing shortwave for Mon and it will become a little milder with highs into the mid- upper 40s most areas (lower 50s SE).
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Partly to mostly cloudy Mon night and with a southerly flow, should be a little warmer with lows 30-35 F. Enough SW flow on Tue for highs into the mid-upper 50s SE to the upper 40s NW. Turning blustery and dry late in the day from NW to SE. Front pushes SE of the local area Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Temperatures tumble into the 20s/30s Tuesday night, with early morning lows in the teens NW to 20s elsewhere Wednesday morning. Brisk NW winds will quickly knock wind chills down into the 10-20 F range Wed morning. Even with mainly sunny skies Wed, highs will struggle to get above the lower 30s N and mid 30s S...with wind chills remaining in the 20s or colder. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A progressive WNW flow pattern is expected late this week through next weekend featuring a series of nrn stream moisture- starved clipper systems. The first wave pushes through during the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. The 10/12z ECMWF is about 12hrs quicker than the GFS, but regardless PoPs are less than 15% with limited moisture and downslope flow. Another wave quickly follows Friday. The GFS is more nrn stream dominated while the ECMWF pushes a srn stream wave off the Southeast coast. Again, there is little support for pcpn locally, so forecast PoPs are less than 15%. Shortwave ridging prevails Saturday with another quick moving trough pushing through the region Sunday. High temperatures Thursday- Saturday will generally be in the 40s to around 50F SE, then low/mid 50s by Sunday as the aforementioned trough will provide mixing with limited CAA. Low temperatures will primarily be in the 20s for much of the area to low 30s SE later this week, and then rise to the upper 20s/mid 30s (upper 30s/around 40F far SE) by the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A few mid and high level clouds may transit the area quickly during the overnight. Winds will be 10 kt or less from the SW-W tonight and Monday. Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the most part through the week, though winds are expected to become strong and gusty later Tue and Tue night into Wed with the passage of a strong cold front. && .MARINE... Ended the SCA hazards over the ocean with this forecast package as seas have dropped below 5 ft. Sfc high pressure builds over the SE states tonight, and with a slight increase in the pressure gradient, have hoisted a marginal SCA for the Bay for a short period of 15-20 kt winds. Sub-sca conditions then into the day Mon as a clipper system approaches the OH Valley. This system will drag a strong cold front through the waters on Tue, with SCA conditions expected over much of the marine area lasting from Tue through Wed. Low-end gales are psbl by Tue night, esply over the coastal wtrs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...MAS

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