Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271335 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 935 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO KEEP THE LINE GOING. LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN. MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL... PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N. WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE. BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO WED. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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