Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160102 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 902 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the northwest this evening, and passes through the region late tonight into Monday. Cool high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday...then remains near the local area through the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Latest sfc analysis revealing a strong sfc low ~990 mb over northern Maine/Quebec with sfc high pressure centered over the central/southern Plains. Sfc cold front is currently pushing into central/western NY/PA and WV. The front will continue to progress eastward overnight, moving into the local area by around 06Z and pushing just off the coast by around 12Z. Skies are currently mostly clear, but will begin to cloud up from NW to SE after midnight. Ana-frontal setup (precip on back side of the front) to the lift/precip with this front, so the arrival of rain/showers will be delayed until after 06Z for most of the local area. PoPs becoming likely across NW zones between 06-09Z, and overspreading south central/central VA from 09-12Z. Rather warm until the front arrives with temperatures mainly in the upper 60s/lower 70s through 06Z, with a sharp drop of about 10 degrees likely as the winds shift to the NW after the front moves through. Lows through 12Z will avg in the upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The cold front continues ESE across the FA Mon morning...passing through far SE VA/NE NC late morning/midday. Mostly cloudy w/ PoPs 50-60% w/ the frontal boundary...w/ the downward trend in PoPs from NW-SE beginning by 16Z/16. Highs Mon will generally be in the l-m60s (except 65-70 F early over the SE). Temperatures may remain steady or slowly fall across SE VA/NE NC later Mon morning through the aftn with clouds/pcpn and CAA in a NNW wind in the wake of the front. QPF will be on the light side...and generally less than 0.25". Sfc hi pres pushes the cold front well E and S of the region Monday night...then the high builds over the local area by Tue afternoon. Mainly SKC...cool and dry conditions are expected. Lows Mon night will be mainly the l-m40s...some u30s possible over the Piedmont...and u40s-around 50F at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Tue to range from 60-65F. Sfc hi pres to sit over the FA Tue night and Wed...providing continued SKC/cool/dry wx. Near ideal radiational cooling expected Tue night (as any winds die down quickly Tue eve). Lows from the u30s-l40s inland (though m30s w/ patchy frost possible in some rural outlying areas)...to 45-50F right at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed 65 to 70F.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very tranquil weather pattern setting up for the entire medium range period with dry conditions and mild/warm temperatures. Sfc high pressure will be centered from the TN Valley to the local area Wed night, with clear skies and another seasonably chilly night with lows mainly in the 40s (except 50s at the immediate coast). A weak cold front brushes by the NE CONUS Thu/Thu night, but this will have little impact on the local area, merely shunting the sfc high a little to the S/SW. Mostly sunny with highs from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. After that, broad upper level ridge slowly builds E from the TN/OH Valley and amplifies into next weekend. Dry/mostly sunny/clear conditions to prevail, with temperatures rising a few degrees each day Fri-Sun. Highs will avg in the low-mid 70s Fri, trending up to the upper 70s/near 80 F by next Sunday. Lows will avg in the upper 40s/lower 50s Fri morning, trending up to be in the 50s to around 60 F by Sun morning. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly clear sky early this evening across the region. A cold front will push across the region late tonight through early Mon afternoon and bring the chance for showers and MVFR ceilings and visibilities. The wind will shift to NNW at 10-15kt in the wake of the front Mon morning...w/ gusts of 20-25kt possible along the coast. High pres and a drier airmass build into the region Mon night and persist over the area until late in the upcoming week. && .MARINE...
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A cold front crosses the area later tonight into Monday morning. Previous headlines remain in the place over the next couple days, with winds/waves/seas ramping up tonight as the pressure gradient increases just ahead of the front, then further into Mon/Mon night with another CAA surge. Expect 15-25 kt winds over the Bay/Sound/Lwr James with waves over the Bay up to 4-5 ft. For the ocean, winds may gust up to ~30 kt at times with seas up to 6-9 ft, highest over southern cstl wtrs. High pressure then slides into the area late Tue leading to improving marine conditions, with just some lingering 5-6 ft seas over southern cstl wtrs. The high will remain over the area through the end of the week with an extended period of sub-SCA conditions expected.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJB/JEF MARINE...MAS

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