Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 052137 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 437 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES. AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP, THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE, A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL (H85-7) THICKNESSES WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID- AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 4-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD (INCLUDIGN 95 CORRIDOR ABOVE ASHLAND, VA). THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT. WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW TO SE DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS 10 TO 15 NORTH...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049- 063-064-074>076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP MARINE...TMG

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