Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251048 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 648 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALING ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED SW TO NE FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST, BUT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PW VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TODAY ON S-SE WIND (BREEZY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRY/WARM MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW TO SCT AFTN CU. THICKNESS TOOLS REFLECTING A MODEST BUMP UPWARD IN TEMPS COMPARED TO SUNDAY...ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER ON AVG COMPARED TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 ALONG THE COAST...LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...MID 80S SOUTH. CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT W/EARLY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THRU TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TUE/WED. A WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS LATE TUE...AND SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER, AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED WITH CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF HWY 15...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED/THU, DAMPENING THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY. RESULTANT PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN LEE TROF A BIT FURTHER FOR WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING/ADVANCING MSTR FROM THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND AT LEAST SOME FORCING FOR SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. HAVE ALIGNED 20-30 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON WED, MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-95. CHC POP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AGAIN ON THU...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP INSTALLED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. SEVERE WX NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHEAR PROFILES REMAINING RATHER WEAK. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WOULD PORTEND TO A CONCERN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON WED/THU...BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS TO BE RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE INCREASING RH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY "SUMMER-LIKE" BY THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS EACH DAY IN M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S- L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SE-SW DIRECTION...BECOMING BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON EVENING...EXPECT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE SW WITH EACH PASSING DAY. MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SSE-SSW DIRECTION...BECOMING BREEZY AOB 15KT EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 20KT AT TIMES ON THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES BAY/SOUND. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT TODAY THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 4FT BTWN 10-20NM IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

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