Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220727 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 227 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through today. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning and moves well off the coast by Tuesday night. High pressure becomes centered over the south central states Wednesday and builds east into the local area by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Sfc high pres remains off the mid-Atlantic coast today while low pressure tracks from the central plains to the wrn Great Lakes. BKN-OVC mid level clouds (CIGS mainly 7-9 kft) currently spreading over the FA and expecting VRB clouds-partly cloudy wx today. ISOLD SHRAs have been spotted just N and back into the mountains...and should remain out of the FA today. Highs mainly in the m-u60s...except u50s-l60s along the bay/ocean.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain chances increase quickly after midnight tonight through Tue morning as main sfc low pres tracks through the Great lakes region...pushing its associated cold front across the local area by Tue aftn. Models remain in good general agreement wrt timing that front through the FA. Still see potential for ISOLD tstms in a high shear/minimal CAPE environment from about 09-17Z/23 (Tue) across the FA. Keeping PoPs mainly 60-80%...tapering off W-E quickly after 17Z/23 (Tue)...w/ pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00Z/24 (Wed). Highs Tue from the mid 60s N and on the ern shore to the u60s-l70s elsewhere. Dry cooler Tue night/Wed w/ lows mainly in the 30s and highs Wed upper 40s far N and on the ern shore to the l-m50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Medium range period (late week into next weekend) characterized by building upper level ridge building over the eastern half of the CONUS. Starting off seasonably cool behind the cool front on Thursday...then steadily warming as surface high pressure builds over the area on Friday, sliding offshore late Friday and Saturday. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thu/Fri warm back into the 50s Saturday...and well into the 50s to 60s by Sunday. Remaining dry through the Saturday night. Rain chances increase by late next weekend, as an amplifying upper trough over the plains is forecast to lift across the Plains from the desert southwest Fri/Sat. Gulf is wide open during this time frame, and expect llvl moisture to surge north into the area ahead of this feature, with a period of showers late next weekend. Worth noting that there is good to excellent agreement among the GEFS/EPS early next week, as both show temperatures dropping back quickly behind the associated cold front into early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected to continue through the 06Z TAF period. BKN-OVC mid level cloudiness (CIGS mainly 7-9 kft) moving across the local area attm...expected to continue into the morning hours. Generally light S winds early today...increasing to 10-15 kt through the rest of day. Sfc high pres remains off the SE coast w/ dry conditions continuing. The next chance for widespread precipitation and flight restrictions comes mainly after midnight tonight through (early) Tue aftn with a passing cold front. Gusty SSW winds (to 20-30 kt) early Tue shift to the WNW late in the day. ISOLD tstms possible with the front mainly Tue morning. Dry and VFR conditions then prevail late Tue-Fri. && .MARINE... High pressure over the waters today will keep S winds below 15 kt Waves/seas 1-2 ft. Winds will begin to increase tonight as a deepening low over the Great Lakes pushes its associated cold front toward the region by Tues morning. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 kt from the S-SW prior to daybreak Tues, continuing thru midday/early aftn, with seas on the coastal waters building to 4-6 FT; waves 3-4 ft on the Bay. SCAs remain in effect for all waters. Hard to get Gales with warm S-SW winds over cold water this time of year, but did keep mention of a few gusts to 35 kt for our northern coastal waters. Once the front clears the area Tues afternoon, winds will shift to the west 10-15 kt Tues night/Wed and then northwest on Thursday. Waves/seas subside to 1-3 ft.&& && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures today and Tuesday. Today Tuesday RIC 75/1906 76/1974 ORF 77/1937 76/1999 SBY 72/1927 73/1999 ECG 79/1937 76/1937 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...MAM CLIMATE...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.