Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010039 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 839 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AN AREA OF SHRAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER NE NC...BEFORE DISSIPATING TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY...DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC BUT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE AS SFC HI PRES NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SKIES WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR NW TO MSTLY CLOUDY SE. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT LIKELY SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TDA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US RIDGING SOUTH. THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ FORECAST AREA. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE CIGS AND VSBYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT ECG DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBYS AT SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBYS. AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10 KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS EXCEPT SW AT SBY. OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. && .MARINE... WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM/DAP

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