Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201932 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front remains nearly stationary over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina through Wednesday. The boundary dissipates late in the week allowing the Bermuda high to build back in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak/diffuse frontal boundary has stalled invof SE VA-NE NC...and will remain nearly stationary the rest of the day. Extensive corridor of significant cloudiness covers from offshore of the MD/VA/NC coasts on SW to the central Gulf coast. FA currently split w/ SKC-partly cloudy wx generally NW FVX-SBY line...cloudy SE of that w/ band of (mainly) SHRAS far SE VA-NE NC. Expecting limited changes to the cloudiness through this afternoon. The edge has been taken off the high dewpoints over most of the FA...w/ lowering dewpoints NW...while still remain in the u60s-around 70F in SE VA-interior NE NC and along coastal l70s in NE NC. Have nudged highest PoPs a bit SE from earlier...while areas from central VA to much of the eastern shore will have PoPs below 15%. Locally heavy rain possible in ISOLD/SCT SHRAs/tstms this afternoon/early evening in far SE VA-NE NC (and that will remain a mention in the HWO). Highs in the m80s N...l80s S...u70s-around 80F at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers will continue into the overnight hours...especially invof the frontal boundary. Lows in the m-u60s NW to l70s SE. The front remains stalled invof SE VA/NE NC on Wednesday due to persistent troughing aloft being slow to track through New England, and strong high pressure in the WSW Atlantic blocking eastward movement of the stalled front. Expect a repeat performance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across mainly the southeastern half of the FA with brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds possible under stronger storm cores. Temperatures also similar to Tuesday with highs Wednesday 80-85F and lows Wednesday night in the upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Wednesday night into Thursday...Flow aloft becomes more W-NW and gradually shifts the moisture axis associated with the stalled boundary SE of the local area. As this occurs, the front washes out and transitions into a warm front which is expected to lift northward on Thursday. This will allow Gulf Moisture to surge into the TN Valley and Southeast States. Overall, Thursday should be dry for the local area. However, the aforementioned moisture will gradually move into the Mid Atlantic Region with showers/thunderstorms anticipated Thursday evening/overnight. Warmer Thursday as the region becomes located with the warm sector. Expect highs in the mid-upper 80s (around 80 beaches). A return to warm and muggy conditions Thursday night with low temperatures/dewpoints in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lots of uncertainty in the extended range as models differ on handling strength and timing of several frontal boundaries along with the movement of now TS Cindy. The operational 12z GFS is strong and faster than the previous 6z run with a cold front that would sweep across the area on Saturday by 18z with the remnant of Cindy pushing through quickly ahead of the front. The 6z GFS was at least 6 to 12 hours slower and was weaker with the front. The 00z ECMWF was even slower than the GFS with the remnants of Cindy being left behind the initial frontal boundary, which stalls over the area on Saturday with the sfc low associated with Cindy getting pulled over the area Saturday night. A stronger secondary front arrives Monday and finally pushes the humidity off the coast by Tuesday. The WPC guidance is much closer to the ECMWF scenario and slower, which given the time of the year makes sense as the frontal boundaries of late have struggled to make it through the CWA. So as a result, have held onto a mention of precipitation into the day on Monday, but the best chances for rain should be from Friday night into the day on Sunday as the remnants of Cindy increase the moisture over the region. I don`t think it is wet all the time, but expect some periods of showers with the best chance being during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures are a challenge as well with cloud cover creating much of the uncertainty. While temperatures should drop a degree or two each day, clouds could certainly have an impact and either hold readings down more than expected or should the clouds break more than expected, readings could certainly jump. Right now, have reading in the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday and gradually reduce highs on Sunday and Monday as couple degrees with the front in the area. By Tuesday however, expect to see a stronger push of cooler and drier air which could get highs back down around 80. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Extensive mainly high level cloudiness over the FA w/ VFR CIGS. SCT SHRAs/ISOLD tstms will be lingering invof ECG into tonight as stalled frontal boundary hangs over SE VA-NE NC. Weak system aloft lowers CIGS late tonight/Wed morning...w/ possible ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. Drying/VFR conditions expected Wed afternoon/night. Remnant front front transitions into a weak warm front and is expected to lift N late Thu into Fri as gulf moisture gets pulled into the TN Valley. VFR conditions expected Thu...w/ a return of at least SCT SHRAS/tstms and possible periods of MVFR conditions late Thu night into Fri.
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&& .MARINE... A weak cold front is situated from central NC to off the coast of the Currituck Outer Banks this morning. The wind is primarily SW 10-15kt as there is not much of a wind shift associated with the boundary. Seas remain 4-5ft N of Parramore Island and 3-4ft S, with waves in the Bay ~2ft. The only remaining SCAs are for the coastal Atlantic zones N of Parramore Island. Two distinct periods continue to be observed, one 5-7sec and the other 15-16sec. Recent obs indicate that the shorter period is prevailing. The cold front will wash-out later today with the wind becoming SSW 10-15kt by this aftn and tonight. Another weak boundary approaches from the NW Wednesday and drops into the nrn coastal zones Wednesday night. This boundary will lift back to the north Thursday as high pressure builds off the Southeast coast through Saturday. A SW wind aob 15kt is expected to prevail with 2-4ft seas and 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/BMD LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...ALB/BMD MARINE...AJZ

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