Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281946 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 346 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING (MAINLY 20 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64). A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT (PER THE NAM/GFS/SREF)...KEEPING 20 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NRN NC FRIDAY AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE STALLED FRONT (STILL PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC). THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH SITS OVER CNTRL NY TO CNTRL VA FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN PIVOTS EWD ALONG THE COAST FROM NC TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE INVOF THE FRONT DUE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE WILL SET-UP BTWN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S SW TO LOW-MID 80S NE. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING GENERALLY KEEPS THE COOLER HIGHS ACROSS THE NRN NECK/MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/ACCOMACK COUNTY VA...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO... WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (STILL IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE) ALONG AND N-NE OF INTERSTATE 64 DURING MOST OF SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW ALSO DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 90/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A BERMUDA HIGH. MID-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING OVERALL PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT... BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS HIGHER POPS OF 30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM AVC-RIC-SBY AND LOWER POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90/MID-UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND NE STATES. VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON/LABOR DAY...WITH GENLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUN...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ON MON (MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S) AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS INTO A SFC TROUGH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S. SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AND WILL CARRY 40% POPS ALL ZONES (MAINLY JUST 20% SUN AFTN/EVENING). WILL FAVOR THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TUE/WED...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT...MAKING MUCH OF TUE MAINLY DRY AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE 20-30% POPS BY LATE AFTN AND THEN HAVE 30% CHC POPS ALL AREAS TUE EVENING INTO EARLY WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE N WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS NOW SHIFTED AROUND TO THE N-NW IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A SLGT CHANCE FOR AFTN TSTMS SW OF AREA TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, BUT NONE ANTICIPATED AT/AROUND TERMINALS. AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE LOW, SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MENTION FOR SCT-BKN CIGS ~ 4-5 KFT OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST AT/INVOF ECG LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE... UPDATED TO DISCONTINUE SMALL CRAFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING, SLIDING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF, SUB-SCA SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE BAY AND RIVERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH DID ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS ~15-18KT IN CWF/DIGITAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED GUST ~20 KNOTS IN THE BAY CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH 2PM, BUT PREDOMINATE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA. RECENT OBS SHOWING DOMINANT PERIOD AT BUOY 09 HAS INCREMENTALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT E-SE SWELL WILL BRIEFLY BUMP SEAS INTO 5-6 FT RANGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS (HIGHEST OFFSHORE OUT TOWARDS 20NM), WITH CENTRAL ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES EXPECTED TO REACH ~5 FT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPIRATION TIME REMAINS AT 22Z. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON, DROPPING BELOW 5 FT (SCA CRITERIA) TOWARD EVENING AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME SE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE BY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF 20NM LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE BY AFTN DUE TO SUBSIDING SEAS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM/LSA

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