Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 162019
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight.
A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. Low
pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes to New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Its associated cold front
pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon, with high
pressure building over the area on Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc high pressure (~1033mb) remains centered over the Delmarva
late this morning, and will remain in place over the region
through this evening. Still some spotty areas of light
rain/drizzle across the area, with a trend towards dissipating
of that -RA over the next few hrs. Temperatures avg in the upper
30s to lower-mid 40s, with readings only expected to rise a few
degrees for highs that will avg in the lower-mid 40s (upper 40s
in NE NC). Additional QPF will be a trace or less for the most
part so will have only a 20% POP (or less) through the aftn, but
did mention areas of drizzle over the interior through 18Z where
lower Cigs reside.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak CAD lingers tonight...keeping mainly cloudy conditions.
Little/no forcing for pcpn. Lows in the u30s to around 40F.
Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the SRN Great Lakes on
Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area. Winds
becoming S scour out the CAD during the morning. Models
continue to trend toward another wet/dreary day though...w/ hi
chance-likely PoPS over the northern 1/2 of the FA...less rain
and lower PoPS but still mainly cloudy across the S. Temps
moderate but with all the clouds...highs likely do not get out
of the 50s (will maintain l60s far S for now). Cold Front passes
through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low
levels...should see some breaks in the clouds and a warm day
with highs at least in the 60s. Showers will be most likely
across the E and SE where drier air is slower to arrive.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast from the
Southern Plains during the long term period. This pattern will keep
temperatures above normal for the long term along with a few rounds
of precipitation. The timing of the precipitation has been moved a
little earlier than the previous forecast.
The first system will move through in the form of an upper level
short wave Friday with likely POPs except 50 percent POPs for the
northeast North Carolina counties. The precipitation ends from
southwest to northeast late Friday and Friday evening. The next
system will be stronger with a cutoff upper over the Mississippi
Valley and associated deep surface low and frontal boundaries
extending across the Mid Atlantic States. There is a good chance
for showers in the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday afternoon which
continue into Monday. Kept POPs no higher than 40 to 50 percent due
to a lack of confidence on days 6 and 7.
Max temperatures in the 50s Friday through Sunday warm to the lower
60s west of the Bay Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday
morning warm into the 40s Saturday through Monday mornings.
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 17z...High pressure near the Mid Atlantic Coast will slip off
to the east. As low pressure moves northeast from the Central Plains
into the Great Lakes...a warm front will approach from the
southwest. Low level moisture will keep ceilings generally MVFR and
lower to IFR mainly at RIC early Tuesday morning. Periods of light
drizzle over southeast Virginia will diminish this afternoon.
Showers develop mainly northern portions during the day Tuesday.
Winds will be light through the 18Z TAF period.
OUTLOOK...The warm front moves north of the region Tuesday
afternoon. Precipitation moves out of the area and conditions
improve. a cold front moves through Wednesday morning and may be
associated with a few showers. The weather improves once again Thu.
An upper level system may bring showers to the area Friday. Dry
weather returns for Saturday.
A frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high
pres centers over the Mid Atlantic...eventually sliding offshore
this aftn. Sub-sca conditions for today with winds below 10 kt,
1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters.
A warm front lifts north through the area Tue, with winds
becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which
crosses the waters early Wed. Hi pres returns Thu. Sub-sca
conditions expected through this period.