Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211809 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure dissipates across the area this morning with a weak cold front passing through the area this afternoon. Low pressure tracks across the Carolinas tonight and pushes off the coast Wednesday morning. Canadian high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, before drifting off the coast Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The current surface analysis shows broad weak low pressure extending from SW VA to nrn VA, with a warm front extending into SE VA, and a cold front approaching the wrn slopes of the Appalachians. Aloft, a weak shortwave trough is tracking NW-SE across the Mid- Atlantic. This is triggering some light showers across the area. QPF is minimal and generally a few hundredths of an inch. This activity is expected to diminish/dissipate by 12z. The cold front drops sewd through the morning and pushes across the local area later this morning through the aftn. This should result in continued mostly cloudy conditions, although partial clearing is possible across the N the aftn. PoPs today are <15% due to weak subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures range from the upper 50s/low 60s over the Ern Shore, to the low/mid 60s near the Chesapeake Bay, 65- 70F farther inland across central/srn VA and interior NE NC, and 70- 75F for the SW piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure tracks across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday morning as a cold front arrives from the N. 21/00z models have continued to trend swd with this feature, so PoPs have been lowered to 20-40% across Srn/SE VA/NE NC, and <15% along and N of a FVX-RIC-WAL line. Drier/cooler air arrives with a gusty NNW wind Wednesday as 1036-1038mb high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into the nrn Mid-Atlantic. Lows tonight range from the upper 30s N to the mid 40s central/SW. Highs Wednesday range from the mid/upper 40s across the Ern Shore to the low/mid 50s farther inland with cloud cover decreasing from NW-SE during the morning hours. A NNW wind will increase to 15-25mph Wednesday, with gusts up to 30-35mph possible, especially near and along the coastlines. 1038mb high pressure becomes centered from central PA to nrn VA Wednesday night, with some pressure gradient/weak CAA lingering near the coast. Mostly clear and colder with lows ranging from the low 20s across the N to the upper 20s/around 30 for coastal SE VA/NE NC. These values are generally 10-15F below seasonal averages. The high becomes centered over the region Thursday and remains ~1036mb. Mostly sunny and cool with highs ranging from the low/mid 40s over the Ern Shore to the upper 40s/around 50F farther inland. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge axis over the region allows for a cold night Thursday night. Lows in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. The high moves off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Saturday allowing temps to quickly warm. Highs Friday in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows 45-50. Highs Saturday in the mid-upr 60s along the coast, upr 60s-lwr 70s west of the Ches Bay. Moisture starts to increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary Saturday night and Sunday. Low chc pops Sat night. Lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. Frontal boundary progged across the region Sunday and Sunday night. Mild with chc pops (slght chc thunder across the south). Highs upr 50s-lwr 60s Eastern Shore areas, mid-upr 60s west of the Bay. Lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lingering moisture keep chc pops going into Monday. Highs in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions across area terminals at 18z. Latest surface analysis reveals a weak surface cool front dropping across the Tennessee Valley, with a stationary boundary draped across the VA/NC border, with N-NE flow north of the boundary and W-SW flow to the south (KECG). SCT-BKN cigs ~5-7kft continue at KRIC/KSBY/KPHF, with only some mid to high clouds persisting at KORF...and mainly clear to the south of the boundary. The stalled front lingers across the Carolinas tonight, with low pressure tracking along the boundary. Current trends are to shift this system swd, so there is only a 30-40% chc of -ra across far SE VA/NE NC mainly between 06-12z tonight/Wednesday morning. Outlook: A second, stronger cold front drops across the terminals late tonight/early Wednesday, as low pressure pushes offshore. A stronger surge of Northerly winds will increase Wed 15-20kt with gusts up to 25-30kt from mid-morning Wednesday morning through the afternoon. High pressure builds in from the NW by late Wednesday aftn and settles over the area Thursday, bringing a quickly clearing sky Wed morning, with winds eventually diminishing for Wed night. The high then slides offshore Friday and settles off the Southeast coast by Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis depicts weak low pressure over eastern Kentucky, with a frontal boundary extending eastward into southeast Virginia. High pressure centers over the Bahamas is ridging northward along the Southeast coast. The result is a south wind of 5- 10 knots over the local waters. Long period northeast swell continues to produce elevated seas, ranging from 3-4 feet north of Cape Charles light to 4-5 feet south. SCA conditions persist through mid morning as swell periods decrease. The weak area of low pressure lifts into the region today as the front pushes offshore. Winds become north to northwest around 10 knots this afternoon. Seas subside to 2-4 feet. The low pushes offshore late today as another area of low pressure develops over North Carolina. The North Carolina low pushes offshore tonight as strong Canadian high pressure builds southward over the Great Lakes region. A strong north-northwest surge is expected over the waters late tonight as cold air advection spreads over the waters ahead of the strong high. Speeds increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots early Wednesday morning. Based on the strong pressure rises ahead of the high, there is a potential for low end gale conditions in the bay and coastal waters. However, boundary layer winds are progged only around 30-33 knots. Will stick with solid SCA conditions for the Bay and coastal waters beginning early Wednesday morning, with the strongest winds centered a few hours around mid morning. Northwest winds diminish to 15-25 knots Wednesday afternoon. Seas build to 4-6 feet Wednesday and waves 2-5 feet. The high builds over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, with ongoing SCA conditions in the Bay/Sound/Coastal waters with winds of 15-25 knots. Seas subside to 3-5 feet by late Wednesday night. Waves 2-3 feet, with a few 4 footers possible in the mouth of the bay late. High pressure builds across the waters Thursday, bringing sub-SCA conditions back to the waters. Return flow expected Friday as high pressure slides offshore. The next front pushes across the waters early next week. && .EQUIPMENT... Radar KDOX remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter. Part is on order and estimated (though possibly unstable) return to service is Wednesday, March 22nd. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...SAM EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.