Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161820 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 220 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND OFF THE CST. EARLIER -SHRA OVER THE ERN SHORE HAVE MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC). OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE THURSDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH. GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF. && .MARINE... COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN. DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE... WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED. AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MPR

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