Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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625 FXUS61 KAKQ 272053 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 453 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic Region tonight and slowly exits the coast Friday morning. High pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast the rest of Friday through the weekend. The next cold front pushes across the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Approaching cold front has gained ewd momentum today as a 100kt jet streak noses into the occlusion area of the upper low and a srn stream jet pushes the rest of the front along. Although precipitation is still west of the area, am still anticipating an arrival time in the Eastern Piedmont early this evening and after 800 PM for the Interstate 95 corridor/portions of the Nrn Neck...spreading east overnight. 6hr qpf amounts not all that impressive (0.10 inches or less) given Pwats of 0.75-1.00 inches across the Ohio Valley and 1.25-1.50 inches over Gulf Coast states that are expected to advect into the area from the southwest tonight. The lower amounts likely have to do with the "speedy" nature of the front, however the jet streak weakens once it gets past the mts and the front ends up being slower to exit the coast Friday morning, which should result in a bump in 6hr qpf amounts but still averaging around 0.10-0.15 inches. There is enough instability/lift along the front, in addition to favorable theta-e dynamics, to support thunder into the overnight hours. Warm tonight ahead of the front with lows in the mid-upper 60s (lower 60s Atlantic MD/VA Eastern Shore). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The front slowly exits the coast Friday morning with lingering showers and thunderstorms possible across NE NC and extreme SE VA into early afternoon. Precip totals for Friday should be 0.05 inches or less as Pwats decrease. Another warm day on tap with highs reaching the mid 80s inland VA, lower 80s inland NE NC and MD/VA Eastern Shore, and mid 70s to lower 80s beaches. Weak high pressure builds in behind the front as it washes out off the Carolina Coast. The nrn part of the front gets pushed NNE by Friday aftn as it sticks with parent low in nrn Ontario/wrn Quebec. Meanwhile, stacked high pressure begins to dominate off the Southeast Coast. This will allow a warming trend to remain steadfast through the weekend. Lows Friday night in the 60s under mostly clear skies. Breezy southwest winds expected to develop on Saturday and promote excellent mixing conditions under mostly sunny skies. Highs Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and in the low-mid 80s beaches. High cirrus to spread into the area from the northwest as a weak cold front to the north melds/merges with a warm front lifting into nrn VA from a low in the srn Plains. Best dynamics for any shower/thunderstorm development is mainly north of the area, however far nrn counties could see better precip chances (up to 30% POP) Saturday aftn/evening... whereas the rest of the area is anticipated to remain dry within the subsequent warm sector. The combination of the warm front located north of the area and southwest winds of 5-10mph Saturday night will result in warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s (mid 60s beaches). Once again, the region remains well within a warm sector on Sunday with a cold front crossing the mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs 86-90F inland and 75-84F immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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There will be increasing chcs for showers and tstms fm the west late Sun night into Mon morning, as a cold front pushes into the mtns. That cold front will push thru the mts by late Mon, then cross the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Have maintained high chc to likely Pops for showers/tstms fm Mon aftn into Tue morning. Lows Sun night will range thru the 60s. Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for later Tue morning thru Wed, as it slides from the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on Tue and Wed mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tue night ranging thru the 50s to near 60. Another low pressure area will lift fm the lower MS valley twd the OH valley Wed night thru Thu. This will result in increasing chcs for showers or tstms, esply during Thu. Lows Wed night in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Thu in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the evening hours with scattered afternoon CU inland around 4-6kft AGL. Weakening line of convection expected to push across the region this evening through late tonight. Lower ceilings/visibilities will be tied to convection, then some lingering MVFR to locally IFR conditions possible through 15Z Fri. Outlook...Mainly dry weather expected over the weekend. Next frontal boundary expected late Monday into Tuesday with possibility of shwrs and tstms. && .MARINE...
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Late this aftn, a weak cold front was pushing into the mtns. Winds were mainly SSW 10 to 15 kt over the waters. That weak front will approach fm the west tonight, then dissipates as it slides into the nrn waters Fri morning. South winds will increase a bit tonight, helping to maintain or build seas to 4 to 6 ft over the nrn three coastal zns. So, have maintained SCA for these zns into Fri morning. Otherwise, expect SSW winds to remain below SCA criteria. A disorganized pressure pattern will produce SSE winds arnd 10 kt or less over the waters during Fri. Generally SSW winds 15 kt or less will prevail over the wates Fri night thru Sun, as sfc high pressure sets up off the Mid Atlc/SE coast. Waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft. Another deep low pressure system will move thru the upper Midwest early next week. This along with an approaching cold front will increase the pressure gradient locally, with SCA`s likely Mon and Mon night.
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&& .CLIMATE... It appears likely that Richmond and Norfolk will end the month with the warmest April on record. Warm temperatures during most of the month combined with an unseasonably warm period to end April are expected to push the average temperature above that which occurred in 1994. At Richmond, the previous record was 63.2 and at Norfolk it was 64.7. Both were set in 1994. This month`s temperatures could be around a degree above those values. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.