Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221104 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 704 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE. LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING TREND WELL UNDERWAY. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE...
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LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED. GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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