Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160551 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1251 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds across the southeast states today, and moves off the Carolina coast Sunday and Monday. The local area remains in between weak low pressure to the south and strong low pressure over Canada on Tuesday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Lo pres that brushed mainly the lower MD ern shore w/ -SN late this afternoon/early eve now E of the NJ/DE coasts...and will continue to track away from the region overnight. Any accums were less than 1". Weak sfc hi pres begins to build into the region...resulting in mainly SKC and cold wx overnight. Lows in the upper teens to 20s inland...upper 20s to lower 30s at the immediate coast in SE VA- NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds across the SE CONUS Saturday and becomes centered in vicinity of the NC coast by Saturday night. Highs Saturday rise into the mid 40s N to the upper 40s/near 50F S with a partly sunny sky N to mostly sunny sky S. Mostly clear and seasonally cool Saturday night with lows ranging from the upper 20s/around 30F inland to the mid 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. High pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak trough pushes across the Great Lakes. Some upper level srn stream moisture will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in increasing clouds Sunday. Highs Sunday range from around 50F N to the mid 50s S. High pressure remains offshore Monday. A dampening srn stream wave pushes into the Tennessee Valley by Monday aftn. Decreasing clouds Sunday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the low 40s SE. Increasing clouds and mild Monday with highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rising 500mb heights on Monday will help afternoon temperatures approach the 60 degree mark. Moisture will also be on the increase, most prominently in the south. A compact impulse of energy moves into eastern NC Monday during the day, helping to spark a few showers, mainly across extreme south VA and northern NC. Will keep a slight chance of showers going through the overnight, followed by a lull in activity Tuesday morning. Models diverge in their solutions for Tuesday and beyond. The GFS/Canadian suggest a chance of rain Tuesday through early Wednesday, ending during the day on Wednesday...while the EURO waits to move any rain in until Wednesday afternoon, continuing through Thursday morning. Confidence is somewhat higher with the GFS/Canadian than the EURO at this time, so went with conditions drying out Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure builds back in, keeping us rain-free Thursday and Friday. In the future and beyond, moisture increases from the southwest early Saturday ahead of another approaching cold front. Temperatures will be above climate normals through Tuesday and then cool down Wednesday behind a cold front. Another warm up is expected Thursday and especially Friday with winds swinging back out of the southwest. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Precipitation has exited the eastern shore, leaving just some patchy MVFR vsbys 3-5SM at KSBY, and clear skies/P6SM elsewhere. Light WNW winds 5kt or less through mid morning, shift to the WSW generally around 10 knots from 15-21Z today (a few gusts close to 20 kt possible at KSBY). VFR, but some mid level clouds with cigs of 10-20k ft to affect northern sites. Light SW winds/mainly SKC tonight. Outlook: High pressure builds along the SE/Carolina coast Sunday, then shifts off the SE coast Sun night/Mon. VFR conditions prevail but mid level clouds increase. Weak low pressure approaches from the WSW Monday, but much of the moisture is expected to remain south of the region. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday and pushes through by Wednesday with only a minimal chance of shower Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
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&& .MARINE... The developing sfc low is now over portions of the Tidewater between Chesapeake and Virginia Beach and is moving off to the ENE. North of the low have seen a persistent E to NE flow with winds 10 to 15 kt, which were a bit more than the guidance depicted. Those winds are now beginning to turn to the North as the low is moving off the coast. Once the low gets off the coast in the next couple of hours and continues to strengthen, will see the winds turn N - NW and increase to 15 to 20 kt with higher gust to around 25 kt, especially over the coastal waters as the colder air off to the NW gets pulled off shore. Have kept headlines in place for low end SCA conditions. The winds will begin to relax by Sat afternoon as high pressure slides over the area and the cold advection ends. This will allow for a period of lighter winds and more tranquil seas of 1 - 2 ft through Sunday. By Monday the high pressure system will pull east off the coast and the flow will turn southerly, but will remain with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas 2 - 3 ft. This will continue through Tuesday in Wednesday when a fresh cold front crosses the waters and once again the winds will kick up to low end sca levels. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...ESS

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