Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010813 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC. FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA. THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US RIDGING SOUTH. THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ FORECAST AREA. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THE IFR STRATUS THAT IS OVERSPREADING THE PIEDMONT ERLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS PICKING UP ON THE MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN NOT MUCH WIND PROGGED OVR THE NEXT 6 HRS AND THE CRNT GOES IFR SAT LOOP...DECIDED TO KEEP THE IFR ST AT RIC THRU 12Z WITH MVFR 1-3K FT AT ORF/PHF/ECG (BASICALLY THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YSTRDY). SBY PROBLEMATIC FOR THE 06Z TAF GIVEN SKC THERE NOW. STILL THINK SBY WILL SEE ST DVLP BEFORE SR. ALSO ADDED VCSH TO ECG GIVEN THE SHWRS CRNTLY MOVING NE ACROSS NE NC. XPCT THE ST/ PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS BEFORE 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH PRS MOVES OVRHEAD. OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. XCPTN BEING THE PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. && .MARINE...
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NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP. FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI. SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR EQUIPMENT...

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