Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310748 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 348 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD ~1019 MB HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH LO PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. ALOFT...A HI- AMPLITUDE UPR-LEVEL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE SFC HI SLIDES OFFSHORE TDA...WITH SLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODEL THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S...UPR 80S PSBL IN SOME AREAS. OTWS...EXPECT A MSTLY/PRTLY SUNNY SKY WITH CONTINUED DRY WX. FOR TNGT...AN APPROACHING MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO/SCT SHRAS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NGT WITH OVRNGT LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS INTO FRI. BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL CARRY 40-60% POPS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%) EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS ON SAT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER 80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRSSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS ALONG WITH SCT CU TODAY. S-SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS. OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTRMS INCREASE FRIDAY & CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG A STALLED COASTAL FRONT. && .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT AN E-SE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT WITH LATEST WWA INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY OUT NEAR 20 NM. WINDS BECOME S-SW BY SUNDAY REMAINING AOB 15 KTS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR

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