Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 012007 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A complex area of low pressure will track to the north of the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Sunday. A cold front drops through the area Sunday night, with high pressure building north of the area Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Current GOES WV imagery depicts a stubborn upper low lifting nwd over the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the associated moist airstream is pushing off the coast, with only iso-sct showers (possibly a tstm) lingering from the wrn shore of the Bay ewd through the evening. The low begins to lift to the ne later tonight, which could allow some additional moisture to lift up the coast, so a 30-40% PoP will linger overnight. Additional QPF will be minimal and mainly aob 0.1". The low-level flow will remain weak, so fog and stratus will likely develop later tonight. Lows range from the upper 50s over the piedmont, to the mid/upper 60s at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper low fills and becomes an open wave as it lifts ne through the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday into Sunday night. Meanwhile, weak high pressure and a drier airmass build in from the nw. There remains a slight chc of showers for coastal se VA/ne NC with lingering low-level moisture. Otherwise, partly sunny to potentially mostly cloudy along the coast with highs ranging from around 80 nw to the low 80s se. A weak cold front pushes through Sunday night with a slightly cooler airmass building in from the nnw. Generally partly cloudy Sunday night into Monday. Lows Sunday night range from the mid/upper 50s w to the low/mid 60s at the coast, followed by highs Monday in the upper 70s to around 80. High pressure continues to build down from the n Monday night into Tuesday with the low-level flow gradually becoming ne. As a result, expect a slight cooling trend to continue under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. Lows Tuesday night drop into the mid 50s to around 60, with highs Tuesday in the mid/upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The mid week surface progs show a strong surface high over Maine with ridging south into the Gulf Coast States. This high will retreat to the northeast as a cold front approaches from the west toward the end of the week. There will be 20 to 40 percent chance for showers through the period especially across eastern portions of the area...with the highest chances occurring on Friday. Hurricane Matthew is expected to be nearly stalled over the Bahamas around mid week and waiting for marching orders. The most likely course at this time would be to the north or northeast but uncertainty remains. Stay up to date on the latest forecast information through the National Hurricane Center. High temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 70s in the Piedmont to the upper 70s in the southeast. Lows are expected to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland to the mid and upper 60s in the southeast.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak frontal boundary extended through eastern Virginia and will be slow to move off the coast through Sunday. High pressure will build from the north into the Mid Atlantic States early next week. Low level moisture continues over the area with light and variable winds. Most of the IFR appears to have ended except for some intermittent conditions at SBY. IFR or LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected over inland areas once again early Sunday morning. Conditions improve late Sunday morning and VFR should be more prevalent than it was by mid-day Saturday. Showers will be possible during the period...mainly over eastern portions of the area. OUTLOOK...Patchy fog will be possible Monday morning. Dry weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday. There will be a chance for showers mainly toward the coast Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure over SE Canada/Nrn New England continues to break down tonight as a complex area of low pressure tracks north and away from the Mid Atlantic Region by Sun morning. Winds generally light (aob 10kt) and variable E-SE. Seas 3-4ft srn half of coastal waters while seas average 4-5ft from Fenwick Island to Parramore Island. SCA flags remain in effect through 1000 PM this evening when seas should subside to 3-4ft. Calmer marine conditions expected late tonight through Mon. Wind directions will be variable ssw-w through Sun evening and then shift to a more nly direction Mon into early Tue. Winds by Tue aftn are then expected to become predominantly NE and increase to 15-20kt sustained in response to a tightening pressure gradient caused by Hurricane Matthew (located over the Caribbean) and another Canadian high pressure centered over SE Canada/Nrn New England through Thu. Wind speeds will also be enhanced by a pesky upper low slowly passing north of the waters during this time. Seas/waves expected to build quickly Tue aftn (4-5ft/3-4ft respectively)...continuing to gradually build as Hurricane Matthew inches closer to the Southeast coast late in the week. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding Matthew`s storm track at this time. However, the general trend for late next week continues to be increasing onshore/NE winds and continually building seas.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... River flooding continues across the primary rivers of the Lower MD Eastern Shore due to recent heavy rainfall, mainly the Pocomoke and especially at Snow Hill. This flooding will likely continue through Sunday based on latest levels and EM reports. See the latest flood statements (FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ) for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Coastal flood advisories remain in effect for the following areas: 1. MD Lower Eastern Shore (Ches Bay areas) 2. Northern Neck Will evaluate ongoing trends to see if either of the above advisories need to be extended for the next high tide cycle. Otherwise, tidal anomalies will continue to decrease incrementally by a few tenths of a foot with each passing high tide cycle through early in the week. After which, a resurgence of persistent and strong onshore/NE winds could exacerbate coastal flooding concerns again by mid week (possibly beginning Tue night with the initial surge in winds).
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ089-090- 093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD

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