Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310816 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 416 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region today as an upper level trough settles over the region. This trough will remain over the area as the frontal boundary gradually pushes toward the coast Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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GOES wv imagery shows a mid/upper level trough from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, with a ridge over the subtropical wrn Atlantic. A zone of moist sw flow exists from the Carolinas across central/se VA and off the coast of the Delmarva. At the surface, the pressure pattern is very weak, but is generally characterized by a weak trough across the region. Temperatures early this morning are in the low/mid 70s. Patchy fog is occurring from the Piedmont to the interior coastal plain. The trough will gradually drop toward the region today, with the surface trough/boundary once again becoming a focusing mechanism for convection. Showers/tstms today are expected to be more typically diurnally driven for late July (not beginning by midday like Saturday) and concentrated to the afternoon and evening hours. Forecast PoPs are highest (30-50%) from central/s-central VA to se VA/ne NC, with 20-30% for the Ern Shore. Blended total pw satellite imagery shows values of 2.2-2.4in across the local area, which is about 150-160% of normal. Given this, moisture will be plentiful today. Rather weak flow aloft (especially across srn VA/ne NC) will result in slow moving cells this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings depict a warm cloud depth of 10-12kft along with 1200-1800 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE. This should result in areas of heavy rain that could produce localized flooding. Not expecting enough coverage to support a flood watch though. 0-6km bulk shear is generally progged to be 15-25kt across the area, so expect very disorganized and pulsy convection. Showers/tstms should gradually diminish through the late evening and overnight hours. Highs today will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows tonight only dropping into the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper trough gradually sharpens across the East Coast Monday and Tuesday in response to an upper ridge building over the Mississippi Valley. Several shortwave impulses will track through the base of the trough and interact with the lingering surface boundary, which will shift toward the coast. PoPs for showers/tstms Monday afternoon/evening will be highest over se VA/ne NC (30-50%), bordered by ~30% from the MD Ern Shore through the interior coastal plain, with ~20% over the Piedmont. Moisture will become more limited by Tuesday, but still enough to support 30% PoPs across se VA/ne NC, with 20% from the MD Ern Shore to the interior coastal Plain. Highs Monday will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with highs Tuesday ranging from the mid 80s over the Ern Shore to around 90 over s-central VA. Lows will generally be in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary. With sfc high pressure building into New England early in the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90 degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints, and overall precip chances. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A very warm and humid airmass will remain over the region today thru Mon, with the best chc for showers and tstms all areas this aftn/evening, and the best chcs shift to the ESE counties for Mon aftn/evening, as upr trough pushes right ovr the CWA. Expect mainly VFR conditions at the taf sites outside of any showers and tstms, which could produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Also, isolated IFR conditions possible due to early morning stratus or fog. Mainly dry weather is forecast later Tue into Thu. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term today thru Sun ngt. Winds were NE- SE arnd 5 kt or less early this morning over the waters, and will become SE 5 to 10 kt during today, as a warm front approaches and moves into the region. Winds will then become S then SW later tngt into Sun morning, as the warm front pushes off the coast. A cold front will then drop acrs the waters and off the coast Mon into Tue morning. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. Seas will average 2-3 ft thru the period with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD/TMG

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