Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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451 FXUS61 KAKQ 280703 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to drop into the Carolinas early this morning, and then return north as a warm front late tonight into Monday morning. Another cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Large hail affected much of central and southern VA Sat evening, with several reports of hail to 2". Severe threat now over, but small hail and locally heavy rain still possible through around 08Z. Variably cloudy N and mostly cloudy S with lows in the upper 50s N to the low 60s S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The initial shortwave trough pushes offshore Sunday morning, with shortwave ridging building over the Mid-Atlantic. The surface cold front drops into the Carolinas Sunday with N/NE flow developing across the region in the wake of the mid-level trough and surface cold front. Variably cloudy with some patchy morning stratus or fog possible. Cooler over the Ern Shore with highs in the low/mid 70s. Highs generally in the low/mid 80s for central/srn VA and interior NE NC. The surface boundary returns newd into the region late Sunday aftn into the evening and early overnight hours. This will combine with another shortwave trough resulting in an increasing possibility of showers/tstms approaching from the west during the evening and overnight hours. 0-6km bulk shear rapidly increases to 35-45kt after 00z resulting in a chc of a few strong to marginally severe tstms mainly during the evening. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Monday morning, and then continue ewd Monday aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected Memorial Day aftn/evening. There is some model disagreement with respect to coverage, so PoPs will remain 30-50%. Increasing WSW flow aloft ahead of a trough digging across the Great Lakes will yield 0- 6km bulk shear values of 40-50kt. This will combine with 1000-2000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE resulting in the potential for severe thunderstorms. Partly sunny then mostly cloudy on Memorial Day with highs ranging through the 80s, with the potential for near 90 SE, and 70s along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term period beginning Tuesday night features near normal temperatures and generally low chances for precipitation. Weak and poorly defined frontal boundaries affect the area and confidence in the details of the precipitation forecast are rather low. Thunderstorm chances Wednesday were kept relatively low as weak high pressure builds in. A frontal boundary moves in for Thursday and settles just off the coast Friday and Saturday. Highest POPs (30 to 40 percent) are currently set for southern portions on Friday afternoon and evening. High temperatures are forecast to range from 80 to 85 Wednesday and Thursday and the upper 70s to around 80 Friday and Saturday. Readings will be a bit lower near the coast. Lows are expected to range from 60 to 65. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The current surface analysis shows a weak front in vicinity of the VA/NC border, with light N/NE flow north of the boundary and light S/SW flow south of the boundary. Stratus and/or fog is expected to develop near the boundary overnight, with PHF/RIC having the best chc of prevailing IFR conditions, with short- lived IFR conditions possible at ECG. Somewhat drier conditions at ORF/SBY should result in prevailing VFR conditions. Showers/tstms are expected again this aftn/evening as another upper level system interacts with the surface boundary. Sct coverage of showers/tstms is expected after 18z, with more widespread coverage after 21z for central/SE VA/NE NC, and then spreading newd toward SBY after 00z. Strong to severe storms are possible once again with severe wind gusts and hail being the main threats. A minimal chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms will persist Monday through Thursday. Stratus and patchy fog is possible each morning.
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&& .MARINE... Late this aftn, weak low pressure was extending fm the cntrl VA piedmont westward into the OH valley. Winds were generally SE 5 to 15 kt over the waters, with Waves ~1 foot and seas 1-2 ft. The low pressure area will move ESE acrs the region and to the coast this evening into early Sun morning. Winds will become SSW south of the low and ENE north of the low, as the low moves thru. Speeds will be arnd 10 kt or less, but stronger in any tstms. Flow becomes NE or N at 5-15 kt Sun morning, as the low slides just off the Mid Atlc coast. The low stalls offshore for the remainder of Sun, as high pressure nudges in fm the northeast. Flow becomes onshore thru Sun evening at 5-15 kt. The next area of low pressure lifts over the eastern Great Lakes region Sun night and into eastern Canada on Memorial Day. A trailing cold front reaches the waters late Mon into Mon night, then washing out over NC during Tue, as high pressure slowly builds in fm the west thru Thu. Winds generally at or below 15 kt. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG

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