Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251053 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 653 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS). HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.
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&& .MARINE... A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO 5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632- 634-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630- 631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD FIRE WEATHER...MAM

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