Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280204 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1004 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS (20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING. AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN). && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...ALB/WRS MARINE...AJZ/WRS

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