-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140241
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN FAIR...BUT COLD WEATHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO RELAX AS WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED GENERALLY AOB 10
KT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA DURING FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW A SSW
FLO TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA...AND UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S OVR THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR...TO
THE LWR 60S OVR THE VA PIEDMONT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
DWPTS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S. THUS...THERE
WILL BE FIRE WX CONCERNS AGAIN...DUE TO SSW WINDS CLOSE 15 TO
POSSIBLY 25 MPH AND RH DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S.

HI PRES SLIDES FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING SAT...AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FM THE NW. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS ON
SAT...DUE TO SW OR W SFC WINDS. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
60S. THAT FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE AREA SAT EVENG/SAT NGT...AS
LO PRES MOVES ENE INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
(BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVR SW CNTIES)...WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S.

THAT LO WILL MOVE EWRD INTO THE GULF CST STATES DURING SUN...WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOISTURE/PCPN (RAIN)
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NWRD INTO THE REGION
DURING SUN. POPS INCREASING TO 50%-60% IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENG.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND PULLS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND PULLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...1025-1030MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER QB THROUGH TUESDAY. SPATIAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE/EXIST BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF...BUT OVERALL AGREE ON
THIS GENERAL PATTERN.

POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CHC FAR
N)...WITH LIKELY SE MONDAY...AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES DROP SHARPLY (BELOW 1295M FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO FALL AOB 32F
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES. OVERALL...MAINLY RA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH A MIX OF RA/SN POSSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME NRN TIER OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH RESPECT TO THE SECONDARY WAVE...SO CURRENT
CURRENT FORECAST POPS ARE SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A MODERATING TREND ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS SW FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND WILL SHFT TO W-SW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR WX PREVAILS THRU SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
BY LATE SUN NGT/MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WTRS
BUT SO HAVE CHANGED TO SCA. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KT STILL PSBL
UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN EXPECT WIND AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FOR ALL THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5-6 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WTRS...ESPECIALLY OUT
NEAR 20NM...AND 4-6 FT IN THE SOUTHERN WTRS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL
BE PSBL EARLY OVER THE BAY AND CURR SND BUT EXPECT CONDS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THE LATE EVENING...THEN BELOW SCA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WELL N OF THE REGION. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE BAY/NRN OCEAN ZONES.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
REGION N-S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A STRONG NNE WIND AND INCREASED SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED FOR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS FRIDAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT CRITICAL. A MARKEDLY WARMER DAY
IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON A
WARM AND STILL RELATIVELY DRY S-SW WIND. LATEST GLANCE AT RAWS
SITES REVEALS THAT AREA FUEL MOISTURE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WHILE WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
COUNTIES AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS, THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS AND EVEN DRIER FUELS WILL BE A CONCERN.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FORESTRY SERVICES AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, WILL HOIST A FIRE WX WATCH FOR FRIDAY OVER MD COUNTIES,
MOST OF VA AND NE NC. WILL LEAVE OUT NE NC COUNTIES FROM
BERTIE/HERTFORD E-NE TO THE TIDEWATER AREA, AS RH/WINDS ARE A BIT
MORE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. EVENING CREW WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THIS AREA AFTER CURRENT RED FLAG HEADLINES EXPIRE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ013>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-049-060>094-099-
     100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/JEF
FIRE WEATHER...