-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 141455
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1055 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LOOKS TO PUSH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT AFTN. HIGHS AGAIN 90-95...EXCEPT
COOLER 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RATHER
MINIMAL ACRS THE LOCAL AREA MUCH OF TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING
SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SW FLO IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OFTEN DRIES THE AKQ
CWA OUT (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC). THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS (30-40%) ACROSS FAR N-NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL
EVENING...TAPERING TO ONLY 15-20% POPS IN SE VA/NE NC. BETTER
FORCING DOES ARRIVE TNGT...ESPECIALLY NW-W PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL LARGELY BE OFFSET BY POOR DIURNAL TIMING. SPC
HAS BACKED OFF ON THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...BASICALLY KEEPING IT ACRS OUR NW/NRN MOST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONING. SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE
SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE ACRS THE CWA TNGT GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS AND
APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT (POPS 30-50%). WARM TNGT WITH LOWS
MAINLY 70-75.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT W/ TIMING...THE SFC COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING RRQ
FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE MORNING HRS DUE TO
VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PRESENCE OF OLD BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT.
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS MOST AREAS IN THE AM HRS WITH LIKELY POPS
BY AFTN ALL ZONES...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS (MAINLY STRAIGHT
LINE WIND THREAT) AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO > 30 KT
(NOT BAD FOR TIME OF YR). SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT BY TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE TSTMS ON TUESDAY (SLIGHT RISK BY
SPC) WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST
BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE...AND MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED AM GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND PW`S IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. IF
TEMPERED BY CLOUDS/PCPN HIGHS TUE WOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPR 80S...BUT COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S IF SOME SUN
DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HRS THROUGH MIDDAY. HAVE BLENDED THESE 2
SCENARIOS FOR FCST HIGHS...GENLY GOING UPPER 80S NW TO AROUND 90 F
SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 F SE.

ON WED...MODELS NOW ALSO INTO DECENT CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SFC
FRONT POSITION...JUST PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST AS OF
12Z/WED. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE N-NE MOST AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE W/NW. LIKELY POPS WILL STILL PREVAIL THRU THE
MORNING ALONG THE COAST (CHC POPS ELSEWHERE)...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ALONG/WEST OF I-95 IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANY
LEFTOVER PCPN IS CONFINED TO THE COAST. COOLER W/ HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LWR-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THU...SFC HI PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVR THE
OH VALLEY WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LO PRES OVR THE SE STATES...AND
MID-LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST. WITH LO
PRES NEAR THE CAROLINAS...COULD SEE SOME SHRAS/TSTMS OVR SE AREAS OF
THE FA...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. HI TEMPS AVG IN THE MID
80S. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HI MOVES OFF THE NE CST FRI...WITH
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL ENERGY LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SHRAS/TSTMS (30-40% POPS). THE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SAT AND SUN
WITH CHANCE POPS. EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIP IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
WITH THIS BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT. HI TEMPS FRI THRU SUN IN THE MID
80S...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH
LOW PRESSURE WELL N OF THE REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED
FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SSW WIND
WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISO-SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGES SOUTHWARD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PREVAILING
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10-15KT (15-20KT N OF CAPE
CHARLES) TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. 14/00Z
WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 5FT OUT NEAR 20NM TONIGHT N OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...THE NWPS WAVE MODEL BASED ON FORECAST WIND GRIDS
KEEPS SEAS AT 4FT...WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL WAVE
ALGORITHM. GIVEN THIS...NO SCA WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. A WIND SHIFT TO N IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A
MODEST SUB-SCA 10-15KT NORTHERLY SURGE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS N OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW AOB 10KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ