Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260618 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 118 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and more seasonal conditions return Sunday and Monday. A warm front and associated surface low pressure track across the area Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... All watches/warnings are over as the storms that prompted the severe weather are now offshore. Lingering upr level energy along the actual fropa has resulted in addntl shwrs/tstrms to develop as the bndry pushes east. No severe expected. Expect the pcpn to end by midnite. Plenty of large hail today...see lsr akq. Gusty NW winds behind the bndry expected through most of nite especially at the immediate coast where gusts should average 20-30 MPH. Dewpoints will fall faster than temperatures due to the well- mixed environment, thus making the ambient air feel cooler than the actual temperature. Either way, temps will drop into the low-mid 30s NW to upper 30s to around 40F SE by morning with skies becoming mostly clear by midnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc high pressure builds across the Southeast States Sunday, up along the SE VA coast Sunday night, and then moving well off the Mid Atlantic Coast on Monday. A warm front then lifts north into the region late Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions will be dry and more seasonal on Sunday with mostly sunny skies and breezy west winds during the afternoon (especially across the MD/VA Eastern Shore). Highs in the lower 50s inland (mid-upper 40s Nrn Neck and MD/VA Eastern Shore). Winds decouple Sunday night with light south winds but the area remains somewhat wedged in the cooler airmass. Lows generally in the lower 30s inland (mid- upper 30s immediate coast). Clouds increase late Sunday night into Monday as the sfc high moves offshore and shortwave moisture/energy begins streaming into the region from the southwest. Forecast remains dry on Monday with temperatures generally warming into the lower 60s (generally upper 50s far nrn counties and MD/VA Eastern Shore). The aforementioned warm front lifts north into the area late Monday night into Tuesday with continued partly to mostly cloudy skies and more substantial warm air advection taking place. Expect lows well above normal with readings in the upper 40s to around 50 NW to lower 50s SE. Highs will also be around 15 degrees above normal with readings in the lower 70s along/south of Interstate 64 and mid-upper 60s north of this line. Increasing chances for light rain showers Monday night into Tuesday should also be anticipated as isentropic lift (especially invof the warm front) will enhance precip chances in persistent SW flow aloft with shortwave energy/moisture streaming across the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure will remain anchored well off the SE coast Tuesday night into Wednesday with broad S-SW flow across the local area. Meanwhile, an upper trough digs across the Plains/Midwest with sfc low pressure making its way into lower Michigan by 00Z Thu. The low the lifts NE into/thru New England thru Wed night/Thursday with its attendant cold front sweeping thru the local area Thursday morning. Expecting an increase in PoPs across the NW counties Wed aftn (30-50%), then high chance to likely PoPs areawide Wed night (40-60%). Chc PoPs (30-50%) linger into Thursday, especially in the morning across SE areas while drying out from NW to SE thru the rest of the day. Warm Wednesday with highs in the 70s. Behind the cold front, cooler temps are set to arrive next Thu-Sat. Highs Thursday in the 50s to low 60s. Highs Friday/Saturday in the 40s to low 50s. A quick moving system may bring another chance of pcpn on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front has pushed well offshore as of 06z with high pressure building in from the W. The sky is clearing with only some sct mid-clouds lingering along the coast. A NW wind will average 8-12kt early this morning, with gusts up to 20kt possible (especially SBY). Clear/sunny today, with the exception of SBY where sct clouds ~6kft are possible through early aftn. The wind will gradually become W by this afternoon as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus. Wind speeds will primarily be aob 10kt, but locally stronger at SBY, 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt between about 14-22z. High pressure quickly slides offshore later tonight into Monday, followed by weak low pressure Monday night and into Tuesday. This will bring a chance of rain to the region and the next potential for sub-VFR conditions. Another cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... Convection ahead of a quick moving cold front will affect the marine area between 3pm-8pm. Winds will be south 10 to 20 kt this aftn in advance of the front, generally remaining sub-SCA, although locally stronger gusts are possible with tstms into the early evening. Seas are currently running 4-5 ft, and will increase to 4-6 ft all ocean zones late today into tonight with the frontal passage. Waves in the Ches Bay will increase to 2-4 ft. The cold front will move off the coast this evening/early tonight followed by modest CAA and strong pressure rises. NW winds will average 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and 4-6 ft seas/3-4 ft waves into Sun morning. Am concerned about brief strong/gusty winds with the frontal passage this evening as winds shift to the NW quickly. Will handle this potential with special marine warnings as necessary. SCA flags are in effect thru late tonight for the Ches Bay, Sound and Rivers. SCA flags are in effect for the coastal waters thru Sun morning. The wind diminishes Sun aftn as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure quickly pushes offshore Sun night into Mon with the wind becoming S. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below for today and Sat, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be the 2nd warmest and ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest. Daily Record Highs for Saturday 2/25: 2/25 ---------- RIC 83 in 1930 ORF 81 in 1930 SBY 80 in 1930 ECG 77 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...AKQ

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