Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300151 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 951 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will linger over the area through Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become centered across the eastern states this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Richmond`s run of 90+ high temps ended at 7 days today, with a high of 87. Norfolk continues as the high reached 90. Cooler temps were thanks to modest height falls, light north to northwest winds and a good amount of cloud cover. Radar depicts an echo free forecast area. Upper trough currently over the Midwest tracks eastward tonight as the frontal boundary over the northern Mid- Atlantic region begins to slowly drop southward. Cloud cover increases from the west as the disturbance approaches. Expect the overnight period to remain dry, but will introduce slight chance POPs late tonight for the northwest Piedmont. Not as mild as the past several nights, but still in the low to mid 70`s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... For this weekend...a broad trough of low pressure currently over the Midwest will slide east and take up residence over the eastern Conus. Mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible both days with PoPs in the 30-50% range. With the trough in place will also see temps remain close to normal. Highs Sat/Sun from the mid/upr 80s north to the low 90s south. Lows Sat night in the 70s. The upper trough sharpens even further across the East Coast Sun night into Monday helping to drive a cold front through the area by midday Monday. Pcpn chances Mon will be greatest over the southern half of the area, so will indicate chc pops (30%) there. Slight chc pops elsewhere. Highs again from the upr 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary. With sfc high pressure building into New England early in the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90 degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints, and overall precip chances. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Finally, a quiet evening! There is nothing on the radar over the CWA and only a few clouds. Winds are light. Some patchy fog is possible tonight especially for SBY but would not be surprised at some fog development at the other sites. However am not expecting significant development. OUTLOOK...There is a better chance (40-50%) of shras/tstms both days this weekend with a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity. Periods of mvfr/ifr conditions are possible in any tstm. && .MARINE... Nw-n winds averaging 5-10kt prevail this aftn with only a slight chance for thunderstorms into this evening. Winds become more ne tonight and then e on Sat as high pressure builds across se Canada. Speeds will continue to average 5-10kt during this time. A front over NC tonight is expected to lift north Sat into Sat night with the wind becoming se 10-15kt. The front then settles over the region Sun into Mon and then slowly pushes off the coast Mon night into Tue. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. There is a good chance for thunderstorms (30-40%) each aftn/evening Sat through Tue...with a slight chance for far srn coastal waters and Currituck Sound on Wed. Seas will average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...AJZ/BMD

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