Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060013 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC- AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS. LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049- 063-064-074>076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...DAP MARINE...TMG

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