Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021543 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1143 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR RAOB PLOTS DEPICTS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER THE MIDWEST...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE MD ERN SHORE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/OMEGA LOCATED ON THE 310K SFC. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST/WEAKEN THRU THE NOON HOUR AS THE LIFT PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING COMPLEX OVER THE KY/TN VALLEYS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO INCREASE ALOFT. HEIGHT FALLS PRODUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES (+2 STD DEV) AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST...UPSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING WAVE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS (EMBEDDED THUNDER) APPROACHES THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST SOUNDING...WITH MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE GUST. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER PRECIP WILL LIMIT WARMING. HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH. SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED POPS RICHMOND SWD TO 70 PCT TONIGHT...TAPERING BACK TO 30-40 PCT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL THETA E RIDGE WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES. THE RESULT WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE GOOD FORWARD PROPAGATION...WHICH WILL LIMIT TRAINING. THUS A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE MIXED PHASE LAYER WILL RESULT IN ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER. 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE RICHMOND SOUTH WITH LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH NORTH. SREF/GEFS PROBS OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE LESS THAN 30 PCT...SO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AGAIN LIKELY FRI/FRI NIGHT (60-70% POPS) WITH HI DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (1000-500 MB RH ~85%) AND STILL SOME UPR-LEVEL FORCING. THE FRNT STARTS SLIDING S BY LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH LWR POPS SAT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OTHER THAN FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (30%). TOTAL STORM QPF WILL BE ABOUT 1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO CONVECTION. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW WITH STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR AND MOST AREAS STAYING BLO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. MNLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHRAS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN. && .MARINE... UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN. WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE... JUNE 2015 CLIMATE: AT NORFOLK: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD. *TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD. AT RICHMOND: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...

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