Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 170536
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1236 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight.
A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. Low
pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes to New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Its associated cold front
pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon, with high
pressure building over the area on Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The current surface analysis depicts 1029mb high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, with low pressure
to the W over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Aloft, a strong upper
low is cutoff across the central Plains, with a weak ridge axis
in place from along the southeast US coast to the OH Valley.
Mostly cloudy to overcast and cool across the local area with
temperatures in the low/mid 40s this evening.
For tonight, the upper Low over Missouri begins to weaken to an
open wave/trough and will track northeast to near Lake Michigan
by Tue morning. This will help lift a warm front N closer to the
CWA overnight (from SC this evening to central and western NC by
daybreak Tue). Not much forcing exists for measurable
precipitation over the AKQ CWA, but as the front gets closer to
the area, expect Cigs to lower overnight and have added drizzle
to much of the forecast area after 06-09Z. Temperatures will
fall only slightly from values this aftn, lows will avg in the
lower 40s S and upper 30s/around 40 F N. RAP/HRRR have been
consistent over the past few runs showing fog developing over
central NC overnight in vicinity of the warm front and pushing
into the local area after 10z as the boundary lifts nwd. Fog has
been added W of the Bay mainly between 10-15z.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong sfc low pressure over the western Great Lakes will
continue to track ENE on Tue...lifting a warm front N through
the local area by aftn. Winds becoming S scour out the CAD
during the morning or early aftn, but will have a period of
likely POPS over the N and chc POPS farther S. Temps moderate
but with all the clouds...highs likely do not get out of the 50s
over the N, with some lower 60s possible over the S. Expect
somewhat of a lull in precip by later aftn and early evening,
then POPS ramp back up as a cold front approaches the region
from the W Tue night. Strong shortwave passes by from
09-15Z/Wed. Best lift and moisture convergence looks to reside
over the eastern shore Tue evening, then with a line of showers
pushing S overnight into wed morning. Will carry 30-50% POPS
well inland, with likely POPS/60% closer to the coast. Cold
Front passes through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow
in low levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly sunny
along with a warm day with highs at least in the mid-upper 60s.
Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air
is slower to arrive. Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc
high pressure settles over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid
30s well inland to the lower 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast from the
Southern Plains during the long term period. This pattern will keep
temperatures above normal for the long term along with a few rounds
of precipitation. The timing of the precipitation has been moved a
little earlier than the previous forecast.
The first system will move through in the form of an upper level
short wave Friday with likely POPs except 50 percent POPs for the
northeast North Carolina counties. The precipitation ends from
southwest to northeast late Friday and Friday evening. The next
system will be stronger with a cutoff upper over the Mississippi
Valley and associated deep surface low and frontal boundaries
extending across the Mid Atlantic States. There is a good chance
for showers in the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday afternoon which
continue into Monday. Kept POPs no higher than 40 to 50 percent due
to a lack of confidence on days 6 and 7.
Max temperatures in the 50s Friday through Sunday warm to the lower
60s west of the Bay Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday
morning warm into the 40s Saturday through Monday mornings.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mainly MVFR conditions to start off the 06Z TAF period as low
stratus is commonplace across the Mid Atlc. Could see some
occasional IFR cigs this morning, especially at KRIC, which has
been accounted for in the TAF as a TEMPO group. Otherwise mainly
MVFR/IFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period
as a warm front lifts north through the area later today, with
winds under 10 kt and a good chance of rain especially at
KRIC/KSBY. The initial band of rain is expected to move
offshore this evening, with the potential for rain moving into
SE VA/NE NC tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Drier conditions arrive Wednesday aftn
in the wake of the cold front followed by high pressure
Thursday. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the
region Friday, before dry conditions return Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Late this aftn, weak sfc high pressure was cntrd just off the
Mid Atlc coast. The high will slide farther out to sea tngt into
Tue morning, as a cold front pushes thru the MS valley into the
TN valley. NE or E winds less than 10 kt will become SE or S.
A warm front will lift north through the area Tue, as the cold
front moves thru the mtns. S winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt
over most of the waters by Tue evening, then SW 10 to 20 kt Tue
night becoming W 10 to 15 kt Wed morning, as the front pushes
acrs the area and offshr. High pressure will build into and over
the waters for Wed aftn thru Thu. Another warm front will lift
NNE and acrs the waters Fri into Fri night.