-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG