Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 121203 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 703 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will move east from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast states today. The associated strong cold front will push across the region from midday through mid- afternoon. Expect markedly colder air across the region then for Tonight and Wednesday, with temperatures moderating for late week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest wx analysis features strong upper level trough digging southeast from the western Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Surface low is pushing across E OH/W PA early this morning, with the associated surface front extending SW into the Mid- South and lower Mississippi River Valley. Front still on track to cross the local area from late morning into the mid-afternoon hours today. Pre-frontal SW flow will get temperatures off to a mild start, with stable to slowly falling temperatures by afternoon. Highs into the mid- upper 50s SE to the upper 40s NW. Turning blustery and dry late in the day from NW to SE. Wind gusts to 20 to 30 mph by mid to late afternoon, gusting to 25 to 35 mph tonight. Becoming clear, blustery and cold tonight. Lows in the teens to low 20s most areas...mid 20s to near 30 along the SE coast. Wind chills in the upper single digits (mainly north) to teens tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Short term period will feature below normal temps on avg with a couple small chances for pcpn as a couple of clipper systems traverse the region. Dry conditions continue into Wed, as weak sfc high pressure slides south of the area. Expect wind chill values in the 20s through the day, with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph and high temps only in the low to mid 30s most spots...15-20 degrees below normal. Next chance of (light) pcpn arrives Wed night with an approaching clipper system. Emerging model consensus is that most of the moisture is north of the region, with low-levels quite dry. Still, potential for a brief period of flurries or snow showers is there, so have introduced a 20% of snow showers everywhere for Wed night into Thu morning. Quick clearing behind this system into Thu, with a dry day then expected for Thu. Temps moderate then into Thu with highs in the 40s under a partly cloudy sky.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Next clipper system approaches from the WNW Thu night. Models coming into better alignment with slowing this feature down slightly, then crosses the local area Fri aftn/night as weak sfc lo pres passes just S and E. 00Z/12 GFS and ECMWF both suggest there is a potential for wintry pcpn on Fri (esp N and NW sections)...maintaining cold air across the region. During the weekend...upper level flow relaxes allowing for moderation into early next week. Lows Thu night from the m20s NW to the m30s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Fri from the m30s NW to around 50F in far SE VA-NE NC. Lows Fri night from the m-u20s inland to 30-35F at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the l-m40s. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s. Highs Sun in the l-m50s. Lows Sun night in the 30s to l40s. Highs Mon in the l-m50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period but clouds will increase across the region from later this morning through this afternoon/evening. Light SE-SW wind will prevail early this morning but increase by 15-18z, as a strong cold front approaches the Mid Atlantic region. SW winds shift to W then NW as the front slides through the area Tue, with gusts up to 20-30 kt at times Tue aftn. Cloud ceilings will lower to around 3.5kft to 5 kft AGL as the front moves across the area and eventually offshore by mid to late afternoon. Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the week ahead. && .MARINE... An extended period of elevated winds are expected through at least Wednesday night as a strong CAA surge occurs behind an arctic cold front late today into Wednesday. Pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front this morning into the afternoon allowing for SCA conditions all waters initially. Gale conditions should begin around sunset and last into Wed afternoon (save the York/Rappahannock/upr James Rivers where SCAs will remain). With gale conditions beginning within 24 hrs will go ahead and initiate gale warnings as of 4 am. Again, SCAs conditions expected much of today with Gale conditions by this evening into Wed. Gusts will reach as high as 40 kt coastal waters and lower Bay. Waves 4-5 ft Bay; seas 5-7 ocean. Conditions improve on Thursday, then next system progged to cross the region late in the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634-638-650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ALB/MAM AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...JDM

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