-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE <990 MB NOW
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. COLD/CLEAR MORNING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME
AREAS WEST OF I-95 ARE INTO THE TEENS (THIS IS WHERE WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO DE-COUPLE). CLOSER TO THE COAST...STILL GETTING
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
SPOTS ALONG THE BAY SEEING AN OCCASIONAL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
WIND CHILLS ARE AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE ERN SHORE...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL THEM WILL BE THAT COLDEST AREAS IN
TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPERATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO WIND SO NOT ANY
CONCERN FOR A WIND CHILL ADSY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NW OVER
THE ERN SHORE...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. SUNNY TODAY...BUT
COLD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA
AND INTERIOR NE NC TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE MD ERN SHORE.

TEMPS DROP FAST THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY. CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT FLOW...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S NE TO THE LWR- MID 20S
ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE HANDLING OF THE UPCOMING
STORM SYSTEM. A MORE NRN TRACK PREVAILS...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PA/NJ SUN NIGHT/MON. THERE IS
A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A LOW CHC FOR -SN/IP ACRS THE FAR NW COUNTIES
SUN MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MEASURABLE
GIVEN WEAK LIFT BUT WILL HAVE A 20% POP ACRS THE NW PIEDMONT FOR
NOW. THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY LIFTS A BIT BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY SO AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WITHOUT MUCH CHC FOR ANY PRECIP. BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DEEPER
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE SFC LOW REACHES SRN
IN/OH. STILL ONLY A CHC POP FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 THROUGH
03Z...WITH LIKELY POPS W OF I-95 FROM 00Z-03Z. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA...BUT WILL GO WITH A RA/IP MIXTURE AT
ONSET OF PCPN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO DRY AIR (DEW PTS IN
20S) EVEN AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 32 F (IN THE 40S). XPCG
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVR THE FA AS S WNDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THUS...RA
WILL BE THE ONLY FCST P-TYPE SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG. TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT EARLY SUN EVE (IN THE U30S N...L/M40S S)...THEN RISE
THEREAFTER INTO MON MRNG (INTO THE 50S ACRS SE VA..40S ELSEWHERE).

BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON...DRYING TREND BEGINS...GFS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BUT ONLY BY A FEW HRS. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK ON POPS IN THE AFTN OVER INTERIOR VA AND NC AND SHOULD SEE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHC FOR AFTN PRECIP LOOKS TO SHIFT TO NE
ZONES. DUE TO WARM START TO THE DAY...THINK COLD AIR WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO AKQ CWA BEFORE SUNSET. WILL CARRY JUST RAIN AS
PTYPE IN THE AFTN EXCEPT ACRS THE FAR N AFTER 21Z. HI TEMPS FM THE
MID/UPPER 40S NNW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
OTHER THAN SOME SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER CSTL WTRS ERLY MON
EVE...EXPECT CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030+ MB HIGH APPRCHS
FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO L20S
SOUTH XCPT M20S SERN BEACH AREAS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY
AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE 30S. MSTLY CLR TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH MID WEEK SYSTM AND OFFER
UP DIFFERENT TIMING AND MOISTURE SCENARIOS...SO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FCST CONTINUES UNTIL MORE MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE SEEN. HOWEVER...
THE TREND IS SLOWER IN BRINGING MSTR NORTH INTO THE FA AS SRN
STREAM LOW DVLPS IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THEN TRACKS NE ALONG
THE SE AND PSBLY MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE PULLING NE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MODEL GUID SUGGESTS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN.
TRENDED DRIER/WARMER ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. XPCT INCRG
CLDNS WED NIGHT. WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS WED NIGHT.
CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED NITE WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20% POP FOR MIXED
SNOW/RAIN LATE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS. LOWS ARND FREEZING NRN MOST
CNTYS TO THE M-U30S OVR THE SOUTH. RAIN CHCS CONT THU XCPT FOR
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S SE TO THE 30S OVER THE NORTH.

IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES...THE STRONG HIGH PRS KEEPS SRN STREAM LOW
SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FA. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THIS WINTER GIVEN NO REAL BLOCKING PATTERN SEEN. ITS SOLN WOULD
BE COLDER AND DRIER.

ANTHR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BEHIND
THIS SYSTM BY FRIDAY. DCRG CLDNS THU NITE. LOWS IN THE 20S. MSTLY
SUNNY FRI. HIGHS IN THE 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED INLAND THIS MORNING AOB 10 KT THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY/SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THRU THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
INLAND WINDS REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NW GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE. RAIN ENDS MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER
RETURNS TUES AND WEDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE NW WEDS NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 7AM...
WHILE CAA HAS WANED THIS MORNING...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE WATERS HAS HELPED MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED ALL GALE HEADLINES ANOTHER 3 HOURS THRU 10AM.
THEREAFTER...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-8 FT THRU
THE MORNING...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS OVER THE WATERS DEPICTS LAST EVENINGS COLD
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH LOW LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...CAA WANES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 30 KT.
HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON. 6-9 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY
MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY AND FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 5 FT ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SLY FLOW AOB 15 KT RETURNING TO THE WATERS.
SLY FLOW INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG NWLY SURGE. A PERIOD OF GALES
IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDS TO
6 TO 9 FT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES AND WEDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 25
DEGS. MODERATE ICING IS EXPECTED THRU MID MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED AGAIN MON NIGHT AS AIR TEMPS OVER THE WATER DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S IN TANDEM WITH STRONG NW GUSTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MPR
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM