-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
121
FXUS61 KAKQ 281853
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will shift slowly northward today. As
this front lifts north away from the area, expect daily diurnal
rain chances Saturday through early next week. Well above normal
temperatures will continue through next week, with a possible
frontal passage early/mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 AM EDT Saturday...

- Temperatures increase this afternoon as a warm front lifts
  northward.

- Isolated strong to severe storms possible along the northern
  fringe of the local area and MD Eastern Shore counties.

The latest surface analysis depicts a warm front across
southern VA. Temperatures N of the boundary are generally in the
lower to mid 70s, with lower 80s S of the front. Areas of fog N
of the warm front have lifted, and stratus clouds are gradually
eroding. High temperatures today will return to the lower 90s.
Heat indices are forecast to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s,
but should remain under Heat Advisory criteria. With the front
moving out of our area later today, we will lose a triggering
mechanism for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. While
afternoon/evening thunderstorms are still possible mainly in
the W/N counties, they will not be as high in coverage. A few
storms that develop along the front in the northern counties
later this afternoon could become strong to severe, and SPC has
the very northern fringes of forecast area and the MD Eastern
Shore counties in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, with
isolated damaging wind gusts the main threat. Overnight,
temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s and skies will
continue to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with chance of
  afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

With the back door front well north of the area and generally zonal
flow aloft expected, diurnal convection Sunday and Monday should
remain isolated to scattered despite high PW values and good daytime
heating. Though the upper ridge that has been parked across the
region the past week will be gradually weakening and shifting
offshore, it will still help keep temperatures above normal Sunday
and Monday, with highs in the lower to mid 90s expected. Heat
indices will range between 97-104F, however, some areas could see a
brief period of 105F+ heat indices so a Heat Advisory may be
required. We will continue to monitor any trends in temperatures and
dew points and issue one if deemed necessary. On Monday, another
front will be advancing towards our area from the west, pulling even
higher PW values to the region. Temperatures will drop into the low
to mid 70s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Frontal passage Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing some
  relief to the area.

The front will approach the area on Tuesday, with increasing rain
chances by the afternoon. With partly cloudy skies and lower rain
chances Tuesday morning combined with increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the front, temperatures will still potentially be able to
reach the lower to mid 90s, making for one last oppressively hot day
(for now). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move
through the area ahead of and along the front Tuesday afternoon
through early Wednesday morning. The front may stall near the NC/ VA
border, which would bring increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
Wednesday through potentially Thursday. Though the front is on the
weaker side in terms of airmass change, temperatures are still
expected to drop a few degrees on Wednesday with highs in the upper
80s to near 90 degrees. The main source of relief will come in the
form of slightly lower dew points, leading to lowered heat indices.
A secondary front is forecast to move through Thursday morning,
dropping dew points into the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper ridge
will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by late
next week after the frontal passage, so temperatures will quickly
rebound back into the 90s by Thursday/Friday. Luckily, the lower dew
points look to linger through at least the first part of the
weekend, and the heat index is forecast to *only* reach the 90s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 18z,
with a residual warm front washing out across the Delmarva. VFR
with SCT aftn CU and generally a light SW wind, although locally
NE at ORF with the sea-breeze. Primarily VFR for the 28/18z TAF
period. MVFR vsby is possible at SBY later tonight through
sunrise Sunday at SBY in closer proximity to the residual
boundary. There is a slight chc of showers/tstms this
aftn/evening, and then a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms Sunday
aftn. The wind will generally be light out of the SW tonight
into Sunday, and locally variable in/near any showers/tstms.

VFR conditions are primarily expected through the middle of
next week. There is a chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms Monday,
with higher confidence/more coverage of showers/tstms Tuesday
ahead of a cold front. Chcs of aftn/evening showers/tstms
gradually push S with the cold front Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions through Monday (outside of
convection), with SCA conditions possible Tuesday/early Wednesday in
association with a stronger cold front.

Current surface analysis shows the lingering weak front has moved
north of the local waters. High pressure dominates from the south
and southeast, allowing benign marine conditions to continue. Winds
are currently light SSE at 5-10 kt, becoming more southerly tonight
and increasing slightly to 10-15 kt. Gradually shifting, winds will
become SW by tomorrow morning, remaining sub-advisory at 5-10 kt in
the morning to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. There is a slight chc of
convection developing over the waters tomorrow. Waves are currently
1-2 ft, with seas 3-4 ft. In combination of NE swell and 7-8 sec
periods, waves and seas will remain slightly elevated at 3-4 ft
through tonight. Seas and waves Sunday and Monday will remain below
SCA criteria at 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively.

Winds increase Monday afternoon ahead of the next frontal boundary.
Remaining out of the SW, late afternoon into early Tuesday, winds
are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A low
end SCA is seems to be likely at this time, but will continue to
monitor the trends. Behind the front, waves may remain slightly
elevated, but sub-SCA conditions will return likely by Wednesday.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place today over the northern
waters, with Low Rip Risk through the weekend over southern
waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AC/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC/LKB