Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240050 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 750 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will slowly lift north through the area tonight. High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night and settles across North Carolina Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... High pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada this aftn and is ridging to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic. A warm front is gradually lifting nwd over NC. Widespread stratus N of the warm front still covers much of the local area, but is gradually eroding from the S with the clearing line in vicinity of the VA/NC border as of 345 pm. Temperatures range from the mid 40s to low 50s where the cloud cover remains, and have risen to the low/mid 60s along the Albemarle Sound. The warm front will gradually lift nwd through much of the area overnight. Stratus should continue to erode late this aftn and early evening. Locations that clear this evening should have fog develop later this evening through the early overnight hours. Locally dense fog is possible, especially from the coastal plain to the Atlantic coast, including the marine area. Lows tonight will primarily be in the 50s, with locations across the nrn half of the area experiencing steady temperatures, or evening rising temperatures over the Ern Shore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Much of the local area will enter the warm sector Saturday, with fog/stratus lifting and scattering in the morning. The warm front will remain in vicinity of the nrn tier of the area. A shortwave trough rounding the top of the SE Conus ridge could bring some showers across the N, mainly during the aftn and evening. Forecast PoPs for these areas are mainly 30-50%, with a thin corridor of likely across the far N. High temperatures range from the low/mid 60s over the MD Ern Shore, to the mid/upper 70s over srn VA and NE NC. The ridge builds back nwd Saturday night with the warm front shifting N of the area. Remaining mild with lows in the 50s to around 60F. A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage. Very warm Sunday with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, with low/mid 70s over the Ern Shore, and locally mid/upper 60s for the MD Beaches. See the climate section for recored highs. The best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so PoPs at this time are only 30-50% ahead of and along the front. The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles over NC Monday. A secondary low pressure tracks along the front along with some mid-level energy and this could bring a period of light rain, mainly across the srn VA and NE NC. Cooler behind the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday night in the 50s and highs Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s, but these values could fall during the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front pushes offshore with some lingering shwrs along the se coast Mon eve. Pt cldy/cooler. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. High pressure over the area Tue shifts offshore Tue nite and Wed. Dry thru 18Z Wed with isltd shwrs psbl across the Piedmont Wed aftrn as moisture returns from the SW. Highs Tue mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows Tue nite 40-45. Highs Wed upr 50s-mid 60s. Low pressure moves NE into the Gt Lakes region mid week with the advancing warm front lifting north across the region Wed nite and trailing cold front Thurs. Models show a decent moisture feed into the systm from the sw so will carry likely pops (shwrs) for both periods. Kept thunder out of forecast as that will depend on the actual timing of the cold frontal passage. Lows Wed nite mid 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Thu upr 50s- upr60s. Chc pops Thu nite as upr level systm is slow to track across the nrn Mid Atlantic region. Lows in the 40s. Cyclonic flow Fri will usher in a drier/cooler airmass but shwrs linger across the ern shore as the upr level systm slowly pulls offshore. Highs in the 50s to near 60 se. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front will gradually lift north through the region overnight. Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings have developed along and north of the boundary. Expect for the low stratus to persist through much of the night into the morning hours, gradually improving from south to north as the front lifts through the region. Ceilings are generally expected to improve to VFR by Saturday afternoon, but IFR ceilings may linger across the north (including SBY) for much of the day. Visibilities have also fallen off at many of the sites near the coast, and the patchy fog will likely spread further inland overnight. Expect visibilities in the 1 to 3 nm range at all TAF sites overnight with periods of lower visibilities, especially near the coast. Visibilities are expected to gradually improve Saturday morning. The warm front eventually lifts north of the region by Saturday night/early Sunday. Generally light and variable winds overnight, becoming southwest Saturday morning. Outlook: A cold front crosses the region Sunday night into Monday bringing the potential for ceiling and visibility restrictions along with periods of light rain. High pressure settles over the area Tuesday and slides offshore Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... Seas slow to drop below 5 ft, so will extend ths SCA thru 7 PM. Otw, attention turns to fog development again as the warm front lifts north across the area. Don`t expect the widespread fog until after midnite, so will hold off on any marine fog advsry for now and let the evening shift evaluate the need for one as the night progresses. Offshore high dominates through the weekend with S-SW winds aob 15 KTS, seas averaging 2-4 ft. Could see some gusts to 20 kts Sat nite, but not frequent enuf for any headlines attm. The next cold front crosses the waters Sun nite with a wind shift back to the N-NE for the early part of the week. No real CAA surges noted behind the front, so kept winds/seas below SCA levels. && .CLIMATE... Very warm temperatures will return over the weekend, record highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25. * Record Highs * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985) 83 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012) 81 (2017) * SBY: 77 (2012) 80 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985) 78 (2017) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638- 650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...AJB/MPR AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...

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