Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222027 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalls across the region tonight, then lifts back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front crosses the area late Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM, RIC/ORF/ECG all have broken the record high for today. RER`s to be issued later this aftrn. Latest MSAS shows that the shallow backdoor front has stalled along the differential heating boundary this afternoon, basically along a I64 VA ST RT 360 line. Interesting to note the temp diff across the RIC metro area with upr 50s NW to mid 70s at the airport. Pt sunny and warm south of it with temps in the 70s to near 80 while north of it remains cloudy and cooler with spotty light rain. Temps stuck in the 50s and 60s. Latest data moves a trof across PA east this eve. A secondary surge behind that feature (along with diminishing mixing) should be enough to push the shallow backdoor bndry south to near the VA/NC border by late evening with it stalling out across nrn most NC zones thru the nite. Thus, trended the grids towards this scenario with skies becoming ovc with chc light rain. Drizzle and patchy fog after midnite as the column saturates. Lows in the low-mid 40s north, upr 40s-lwr 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models are fairly quick to move the boundary back north as a warm front Fri. Plenty of low level moisture noted to keep low chc stratiformed pops across the north thru 18Z, then the lower levels dry out a bit as the fa becomes warmed sectored. Another tricky temp forecast as the numbers will depend on how much sun occurs. Highs in the low-mid 50s north, upr 50s-mid 60s south, 65-70 across nrn NC. Fa remains in the warm sectored Fri nite. Not much support for pcpn but fog will be a good bet, especially after midnite. Lows 45-50 north, in the 50s south. Offshore ridge builds back into the area Sat. Moisture slowly incrs with the best support for pcpn across the nw Sat aftrn and eve. Otw, pt suny to mstly cldy and warmer. Highs in the low-mid 60s ern shore with the 70s west of the bay. Lows Sat nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s. The next cold front approaches from the west Sun morning with the fropa in the aftrn/eve. Models depict a decent feed of moisture across the mts but it weakens as it moves east into the Piedmont. Will keep the chc pops after 18Z for now. Highs in the 60s ern shore, 70s west of the bay. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... No major changes expected the the day 4-7 forecast. Still expecting a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. The front will be slowing down as it approaches the area as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. As such, will need to maintain chance pops Sun night into Monday for all locations. Am expecting everyone to see some light rain at some point, and guidance pointed to likely pops both Sun Night into Monday. However, given that the rain will be light and not continuous, we opted to just include chance of rain showers for that period. Once the front moves south of the area, dry Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic by Tuesday, then offshore Wed. The next chance for showers will be Thursday as the guidance suggests strong warm advection ahead of a deepening Mississippi Valley low pressure system. Despite the cool down from this week, temperatures will still be above normal with temperatures in the upper 50-mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s/mid 40s. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The backdoor cold front will slowly sag south to near the VA/NC border this eve then stall across nrn NC tonight before lifting north as a warm front Fri. Stratus stubborn to scour out south of the front attm but do expect MVFR/VFR CIGS across sern Taf sites next svrl hrs ahead of the fropa. To the north at RIC/SBY MVFR CIGS lwr to IFR by 00Z along with some fog/drizzle for the rest of the forecast period. IFR conditions expected at all Taf sites later tonight through Fri morn along with patchy drizzle and fog. Outlook: The front moves north of the area Fri night with the offshore ridge dominating Sat into Sun. The next front will cross the area Sunday night, with another period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during this period. && .MARINE... The front is currently bisecting the marine area as it has been slow to move southward this afternoon due to the strong ridge to the south. However, after sunset, expect the front to rapidly move southward, reaching the southern coastal waters by later this evening. All marine areas should have northerly winds tonight. Will maintain small craft conditions across the northern coastal waters tonight due to wind and seas, however even the Bay will will choppy with north winds around 15kt. Expect the front to surge back north of the waters on Friday/Friday evening , with southerly flow developing and continuing through the weekend. By Saturday night into Sunday, southerly winds may allow for small craft conditions again over the coastal waters ahead of a cold front. This cold front will pass through the waters on Monday with NW winds expected Tue/Wed as Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions. && .CLIMATE... Record highs and record high mins were set at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City Wed 2/21. At Norfolk, the record high was tied and the record high min was set. See RER products for details. For today 2/22, record highs and record high mins will be possible and these values are listed below. **Please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar date values so the the records are not complete this morning (temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight). * Date: Today/Thu 2/22 * Site: Record High...Record High Min * RIC: 73 (1985) 52 (1913) * ORF: 77 (1937) 55 (1878) * SBY: 70 (1997) 50 (1996) * ECG: 77 (2003) 56 (1997) Very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25. * Record highs * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985) 83 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012) 81 (2017) * SBY: 77 (2012) 80 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985) 78 (2017) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...AJB/MRD AVIATION...AJB/MPR MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...AKQ

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