Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 290555
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
155 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
A cold front crosses the region this evening. High pressure
builds in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the
northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the
west. A strong system is expected to impact the region Friday
and friday night. Dry weather returns for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The current upper air analysis and wv imagery shows a trough
pushing offshore. At the surface, a broad weak low lingers from
the Carolina coastal plain to the Mid-Atlantic coast, with high
pressure centered N of the Great Lakes. Earlier convection has
rapidly diminished this evening, with only some very isolated
light showers lingering over coastal SE VA. A 20% PoP will be
maintained for far SE VA and coastal NE NC through midnight,
with dry conditions expected to prevail after midnight across
the entire area. Locations that received rain today could
experience some patchy fog late this evening, but this should
diminish after midnight as a weak cold front pushes through the
area resulting in a wind shift to N-NNE along with lowering
dewpoints. Expect some lingering clouds to persist through
Wednesday morning. Lows mainly 50-55 F (except upr 40s ern
shore). Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some early mostly
cloudy conditions (especially south) as drier air moves in from
the N. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs
60-65F near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by Thu,
allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. GFS/NAM
bufkit soundings suggest skies become mostly cloudy by mid-late
morning for wrn 1/2 of the CWA. With fairly low mixing and
overrunning clouds, expect a much cooler day with highs mainly
ranging from the lower to mid 50s near the coast to the upper
50s over interior eastern VA/northeast NC. Kept it dry through
the day despite the increase in clouds ahead of the next system.
A complex low pressure system approaches from the west late Thu
night and early Fri before slowly crossing the region
Friday/Friday night. Guidance in good agreement with respect to
potential for widespread showers/tstms and potential for heavy
rain during Fri. Will limit pops to 20-30% along west of I-95
prior to 12z Fri before increasing to 80% to 90% all areas
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Good chc for showers continues Fri night into Sat morning, as
low pressure area and associated cold front crosses the area
then moves off the coast. Dry wx and high pressure returns for
Sat aftn thru at least Mon morning. Yet another system will
bring the chc for showers again late Mon thru Tue.
Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat, in the 60s to near 70
Sun and Mon, and in the 60s to lower 70s Tue. Lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 40s Sat night and Sun night,
and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Mon night.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominate VFR conditions across area terminals, with only
localized Visibility/Ceiling restrictions in light N-NE flow
this morning at KPHF and to the west of KECG. This will result
in some ceilings localized LIFR/IFR cigs for a brief time early
this morning morning with some patchy fog also likely in those
same areas (around/west of ECG and invof PHF) that picked up ~1"
of rain late Tuesday. Skies will scatter out and lift from
north to south this morning as high pressure slowly builds into
the region from the north.
Outlook: Dry VFR conditions through Thursday. However, clouds
will increase on Thursday as another front approaches the
region. Clouds then thicken and lower Thursday night as the next
low pressure system approaches the area. This system should
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area
Friday/Friday night as it crosses the Mid Atlantic States.
Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was over ern MD with a cold
front extending fm the low SW thru cntrl VA and NC. SW winds 5
to 15 kt this evening will shift to the NW then N later tonight
into Wed morning, as the low/front push out to sea and high
pressure starts to build in fm the Great Lakes region. North
winds mainly 10-15 kt expected during Wed, as sfc high pressure
ridges down into the Mid Atlc region. While there could be a
few gusts to low end SCA in the Ches Bay Wed morning thru
midday, still do not expect predominate SCA conditions to be met
thru Wed. However, winds will be marginal for much of the
morning and early aftn in the lower Chesapeake Bay, and will
need to watch marginal SCA gusts during that time.
Otherwise, cool high pressure will continue to build in fm the
north Wed night into Thu morning, before it slides out to sea
Thu aftn and night. NNE winds 10-15 kt Wed night thru Thu
morning, become NE 5 to 10 kt Thu aftn. E winds 5 to 10 kt Thu
night become SE 10-15 kt Fri morning, and SE or S 10-20 kt Fri
aftn into early Fri evening, as a warm front lifts acrs the
waters. Waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft this evening thru Wed, then
seas could build to near 5 ft over portions of the coastal
waters Wed night into Thu. But, no SCA headlines at this time.
Could have SCA conditions over portions of the waters Fri aftn
thru Fri night.