Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230810 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 410 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure lingers over the Mid Atlantic today and then gradually moves offshore tonight into Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the west for the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Current water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over the Mid-Atlantic region early this morning, which per GEFS/SREF is around -2 st dev at 500mb. A potent vort max associated with the low is producing areas of rain and drizzle from the Ern Shore into central VA. Temperatures are generally in the mid 50s with nearly saturated conditions at the surface. The main area of forcing is expected to gradually sink sewd through the morning hours, with the rain and drizzle shifting into s-central/se VA/ne NC through the morning hours. By afternoon, pcpn should become more showery, with a slight chc of thunder along and w of I-95 where some minimal instability will be present. Additional QPF averages 0.1-0.25". The coolest highs today (low 60s) should actually be across se portions where the cloud cover will be lower/thicker. Farther to the north and west highs reach the mid/upper 60s where cloud cover should at least lift.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The upper system gradually pushes offshore and begins to fill tonight into Tuesday. Some additional upper energy wraps around the low as it slides offshore this evening, so likely PoPs will be forecast from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore this evening. PoPs this evening taper off to 30-40% for central/se VA/coastal ne NC, and 20-30% from the sw Piedmont counties to interior ne NC. The chc for showers then diminishes sw-ne after midnight. Partial clearing is expected w, while conditions remain mostly cloudy to overcast for the Ern Shore. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s. Conditions drastically improve Tuesday with the trough weakening and pushing offshore. The sky should become partly sunny, with only lingering slight chc PoPs for showers/tstms closer to the coast. Warmer with highs ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 inland, and mid 70s closer to the coast (low 70s at the immediate coast). A broad upper level ridge builds from the Deep South into the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb and this should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. This will be after morning lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections indicate rather dry conditions aloft, so expect dewpoints to mix down into the mid/upper 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean through the long term periods as upper level ridging moves over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the ridge becomes more pronounced Fri through Sun, weak waves of energy/moisture are expected to stream across the wrn fringes of the ridge. QPF is being depicted each aftn/evening through Sat, however this appears to be overdone given lack of preferred dynamics and lack of definitive upper level features to aid lift for convective development to occur. Held onto slight chance POPs in far nw counties Thu aftn/evening and then slowly migrate them ewd Fri/Sat. Current thinking is that the end result will be high clouds streaming through the region rather than light rain showers with isolated thunder. Meanwhile, low pressure begins to develop over the Caribbean on Fri and is expected to drift twd a location off the FL/GA coast by Sun. Will maintain slight chance POPs for Sun/Sun night across Central VA due to pop-up showers developing on the mtns and also in ne NC since wraparound moisture could make it into this area during this timeframe. Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Thu-Sat. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal Thu-Sat nights. Cooler Sun in anticipation of more clouds with highs in the lower 80s inland and in the mid-upper 70s beaches. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper low pres will drop into se va and ne nc this morng, then lift e then ne off the Mid Atlc cst to off the NJ cst by Tue morng. At the same time, sfc low pres will linger just off the va/nc cst into this eveng before lifting ne. This will result in area of rain or drizzle affecting the taf sites thru much of today with IFR conditions expected all sites except SBY thru midday. Conditions will then gradually improve to VFR conditions at all sites late this aftn into this eveng, as sfc flow turns more n or nw and upr low slides offshr. OUTLOOK...With all of the moisture from previous day`s rains, if it clears out Mon night, it is concieveable that some fog could develop especially at KRIC which would have the best chance for winds becoming light. Otherwise...high pressure builds across the area for the rest of the week leading to a more late spring/early summer pattern across the region. Generally, VFR conditions would be expected unless patchy fog develops overnight. && .MARINE... Sfc low pressure system that impacted the Mid Atlantic coast yesterday is now located off the New England coast this aftn with a frontal boundary extending down along the Southeast coast. A new sfc low is starting to develop invof the Carolinas and is expected to slowly track nne to just off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Mon evening...then into New England on Tue. Meanwhile, an upper level trough sits over the region through Mon before gradually sliding off the coast Mon night and tracking into New England on Tue. Winds generally n 10-15kt this aftn will become ne 15-20kt for the Bay/Sound/all coastal waters early Mon morning. Expect gusts to around 25kt coastal waters and mouth of the Bay during the morning. Seas currently 3-4ft srn waters/4-6ft nrn waters. Seas become 4-5ft all coastal waters by late this evening...build to 5-6ft Mon morning...then subside to 4-5ft Mon aftn. For srn Ches Bay, 2-3ft waves will build to 3-4ft Mon morning and then subside to 3ft in the aftn. For nrn Ches Bay, waves will average 2-3ft. SCA flags in effect for Sound, all Bay zones, and all coastal waters through various end times on Mon. Please refer to the Marine Weather Message (WBCMWWAKQ) for specific details. Wind speeds diminish Mon aftn as tightened pressure gradient shifts ewd beyond 20nm. A secondary increase in wly winds may be possible late Mon night into Tue morning for the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light as sfc high pressure starts to build into the region from the west, however speeds of 10-15kt should keep the aforementioned areas (and Currituck Sound) out of SCA flags attm. Conditions finally quiet down Tue through Fri. Winds will generally be s-sw aob 15kt. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD/TMG

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