Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291927 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will linger over the area through Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become centered across the eastern states this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A subtle reduction in heights (weak troughing aloft) coupled with light N-NW winds and a good amount of clouds today have helped to finally curb max temps back down to normal levels. As expected, there are a few showers showing up on radar this afternoon, primarily along and east of I-95. Will keep low PoPs (20%) in the forecast thru this evening, then any pcpn will diminish after sunset. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... For this weekend...a broad trough of low pressure currently over the Midwest will slide east and take up residence over the eastern Conus. Mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible both days with PoPs in the 30-50% range. With the trough in place will also see temps remain close to normal. Highs Sat/Sun from the mid/upr 80s north to the low 90s south. Lows Sat night in the 70s. The upper trough sharpens even further across the East Coast Sun night into Monday helping to drive a cold front through the area by midday Monday. Pcpn chances Mon will be greatest over the southern half of the area, so will indicate chc pops (30%) there. Slight chc pops elsewhere. Highs again from the upr 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary. With sfc high pressure building into New England early in the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90 degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints, and overall precip chances. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Will carry VCSH across sern TAF sites next few hrs per current radar trends. Stubborn MVFR SC slow to break up across the area but do expect all sites to become VFR under a SCT-BKN CU deck. CU dissipate after sunset with only high level clouds thru the overnight period. Some patchy fog possible late tonight at SBY. OUTLOOK...There is a better chance (40-50%) of shras/tstms both days this weekend with a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity. Periods of mvfr/ifr conditions are possible in any tstms. && .MARINE... Nw-n winds averaging 5-10kt prevail this aftn with only a slight chance for thunderstorms into this evening. Winds become more ne tonight and then e on Sat as high pressure builds across se Canada. Speeds will continue to average 5-10kt during this time. A front over NC tonight is expected to lift north Sat into Sat night with the wind becoming se 10-15kt. The front then settles over the region Sun into Mon and then slowly pushes off the coast Mon night into Tue. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. There is a good chance for thunderstorms (30-40%) each aftn/evening Sat through Tue...with a slight chance for far srn coastal waters and Currituck Sound on Wed. Seas will average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD

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