Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290555 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 155 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the region this evening. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday. The high retreats to the northeast on Thursday as the next system approaches from the west. A strong system is expected to impact the region Friday and friday night. Dry weather returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The current upper air analysis and wv imagery shows a trough pushing offshore. At the surface, a broad weak low lingers from the Carolina coastal plain to the Mid-Atlantic coast, with high pressure centered N of the Great Lakes. Earlier convection has rapidly diminished this evening, with only some very isolated light showers lingering over coastal SE VA. A 20% PoP will be maintained for far SE VA and coastal NE NC through midnight, with dry conditions expected to prevail after midnight across the entire area. Locations that received rain today could experience some patchy fog late this evening, but this should diminish after midnight as a weak cold front pushes through the area resulting in a wind shift to N-NNE along with lowering dewpoints. Expect some lingering clouds to persist through Wednesday morning. Lows mainly 50-55 F (except upr 40s ern shore). Becoming partly/mostly sunny Wed after some early mostly cloudy conditions (especially south) as drier air moves in from the N. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper ridge axis quickly moves back into the region by Thu, allowing return of mid/high clouds during the day. GFS/NAM bufkit soundings suggest skies become mostly cloudy by mid-late morning for wrn 1/2 of the CWA. With fairly low mixing and overrunning clouds, expect a much cooler day with highs mainly ranging from the lower to mid 50s near the coast to the upper 50s over interior eastern VA/northeast NC. Kept it dry through the day despite the increase in clouds ahead of the next system. A complex low pressure system approaches from the west late Thu night and early Fri before slowly crossing the region Friday/Friday night. Guidance in good agreement with respect to potential for widespread showers/tstms and potential for heavy rain during Fri. Will limit pops to 20-30% along west of I-95 prior to 12z Fri before increasing to 80% to 90% all areas during Fri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Good chc for showers continues Fri night into Sat morning, as low pressure area and associated cold front crosses the area then moves off the coast. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru at least Mon morning. Yet another system will bring the chc for showers again late Mon thru Tue. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat, in the 60s to near 70 Sun and Mon, and in the 60s to lower 70s Tue. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 40s Sat night and Sun night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Mon night. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Predominate VFR conditions across area terminals, with only localized Visibility/Ceiling restrictions in light N-NE flow this morning at KPHF and to the west of KECG. This will result in some ceilings localized LIFR/IFR cigs for a brief time early this morning morning with some patchy fog also likely in those same areas (around/west of ECG and invof PHF) that picked up ~1" of rain late Tuesday. Skies will scatter out and lift from north to south this morning as high pressure slowly builds into the region from the north. Outlook: Dry VFR conditions through Thursday. However, clouds will increase on Thursday as another front approaches the region. Clouds then thicken and lower Thursday night as the next low pressure system approaches the area. This system should bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area Friday/Friday night as it crosses the Mid Atlantic States. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was over ern MD with a cold front extending fm the low SW thru cntrl VA and NC. SW winds 5 to 15 kt this evening will shift to the NW then N later tonight into Wed morning, as the low/front push out to sea and high pressure starts to build in fm the Great Lakes region. North winds mainly 10-15 kt expected during Wed, as sfc high pressure ridges down into the Mid Atlc region. While there could be a few gusts to low end SCA in the Ches Bay Wed morning thru midday, still do not expect predominate SCA conditions to be met thru Wed. However, winds will be marginal for much of the morning and early aftn in the lower Chesapeake Bay, and will need to watch marginal SCA gusts during that time. Otherwise, cool high pressure will continue to build in fm the north Wed night into Thu morning, before it slides out to sea Thu aftn and night. NNE winds 10-15 kt Wed night thru Thu morning, become NE 5 to 10 kt Thu aftn. E winds 5 to 10 kt Thu night become SE 10-15 kt Fri morning, and SE or S 10-20 kt Fri aftn into early Fri evening, as a warm front lifts acrs the waters. Waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft this evening thru Wed, then seas could build to near 5 ft over portions of the coastal waters Wed night into Thu. But, no SCA headlines at this time. Could have SCA conditions over portions of the waters Fri aftn thru Fri night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD/MAM/JEF MARINE...TMG

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