Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211756 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 156 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM/MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MRNG...W/ LO LVL FLO CONTG FM AN E COMPONENT. PERSISTENT SHRAS/SCT TSTMS INVOF SCNTRL VA THIS MRNG (SOME WEAKENING NOTED IN PAST 30 MIN). RADAR ACCUMS AVGG 1 TO ABT 4 IN FM PORTIONS OF LUNENBURG INTO WRN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD CLDNS COVERING THE FA ONCE AGN...AND WHILE ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD REST OF TDA...OVERALL POPS TO RMN AOB 30-40%...HIGHEST PORTIONS OF SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC. TEMPS HELD DOWN AGN TDA...W/ LIMITED SUNSHINE...WILL HAVE HIGHS 80 TO 85F MOST PLACES (THOUGH NR TERM TEMP GUID DOES SUGGEST THAT SOME PLACES MAY HAVE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 70S). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WILL LINGER SOME EVENING POPS OVER THE SOUTH BUT OVERALL SO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OVERNIGHT FOR MORE THAN 20% POPS. WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED/MURKY PATTERN SFC-ALOFT THROUGH TUE. ONE PIECE OF UPR TROUGH EXITS CANADIAN MARITIME THROUGH TUE...W/ TRAILING PIECE LINGERING INVOF ERN GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGE RMNS ANCHORED FM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HI PRES TO RMN SITUATED FM NRN MDATLC TO CANADIAN MARITIMES...W/ WK TROUGH FOUND E OF THE CAROLINA CST. DYNAMICS/FORCING FOR PCPN ON TUE APPEAR WEAKER THAN MON...AS PIECE OF SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE NRN MID ATLC COAST. WILL ONLY CARRY ~30% CHC POPS (MAINLY AFTN/EVENING) INLAND AND 20% OR LESS CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUN ON TUE WITH SLOW WARMING TREND/ HIGHS 85-90 F WELL INLAND TO LWR-MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. BY WED...NEXT TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MDATLC RGNS ON WED...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC CDFNT TWD THE FA (BY LT WED). LO LVL FLO BECOMES MORE SSW ON WED...RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS AND TEMPS RESPONDING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. POPS TO RMN 20-30% ON WED...HIGHS INTO THE LWR 90S INLAND WITH 85-90F NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. INCREASED TSTM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTN) DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-50%)...HIGHEST WEST. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEST PCPN CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSET TO THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS/ECMWF THAT NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THAT IDEA GIVEN THE TOUGHNESS OF FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW END 20-30% POPS AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. HIGHS THURS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGHS FRI-SUN IN THE 80S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RECENT PATTERN OF LGT AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TDA WITH SFC HI PRES STRADDLING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO LO CIGS AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO LO VFR RANGE. DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN MVFR CONDS OCCUR...BUT THINKING THEY WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE CST OVRNGT...WHERE IFR IS ALSO PSBL. ALSO INCLUDED VCSH AT ECG WHERE SOME SLOW-MOVING SHRAS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING NE NC MAY SLIDE INTO ECG. MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER LATE TNGT THRU TUE...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRIGGER MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... COMBINATION OF WEAK HI PRES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CSTL CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN NE THRU SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS THRU TUE. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FM THE WNW ON WED...THEN PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE WTRS LATE THU INTO FRI MORNG. SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WED INTO THU...THEN BECOMING NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS THU NGT INTO FRI. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...TMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.