Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290939 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 539 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH SOME WEAK AREAS OF SFC TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSW INTO THE OH VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT SFC LOW RESIDES ACRS THE GULF COAST. SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600-700 MB. RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF PRECIP BETWEEN KROA AND KDAN PUSHING E/NE WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER KY. GENLY THIS AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR THAN REALITY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LAYER (OBS AT KMTV SHOW CIGS AROUND 10 K FT). SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SHOWS THIS AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 12-15Z. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED CIGS...ALTHOUGH HAVE A SMALL REGION OF 60-70% POPS IN THE NEAR TERM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENLY 0.10" OR LESS ANTICIPATED (WILL KEEP AREAS WELL E OF I-95 DRY THROUGH THE MORNING). BY THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE AM PRECIP AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE LWR-MID 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S FARTHER EAST. THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20% OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F. UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG. WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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