Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190127 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALL AREAS. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND). MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH 2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM FIRE WEATHER...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.