Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151040 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary frontal boundary will remain near the Virginia North Carolina border today into Wednesday. The next cold front affects the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest sfc analysis shows a stalled frontal bndry stretched across NC with Hurricane Gert well off the Carolina coast. A weak wave of low pressure forms along the front today as a mid- level shortwave trough approaches from the west. The atm remains quite moist as well with PWAT at least 2 SD above normal. After some scattered shras this morning, forcing associated with the approaching trough will lead to likely PoPs across most of the area this aftn, with the region also in the right entrance region of an upr-level jet streak. Moderate to locally heavy rain is psbl as well, and will include mention of this and localized flooding in the HWO. High temps today in the low/mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... For tonight/Wed, chances of rain gradually diminish, though will maintain chc PoPs far S on Wed as the frontal boundary lingers not too far S and weak high pressure builds in from the N. Partly sunny Wed w/ highs upper 80s/around 90F inland...80-85F near the coast. Just a 20-30% chance for aftn tstms Thu especially western areas, otherwise partly-mostly sunny with highs upper 80s/around 90F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc high pressure will slide farther off the New England coast Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri, then slowly drops acrs the area Fri night thru Sun. High pressure will build into and over the region Sun night and Mon. Will have 15-30% Pops over the nrn and wrn counties for Thu night, then 20-40% Pops for Fri thru Sun. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Fri, and mainly in the mid to upper 80s Sat, Sun and Mon. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s Thu night, in the upper 60s to mid 70s Fri night, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat night and Sun night. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Widespread low cigs/vsbys to start off the 12Z TAF period. A stationary front is stalled near the VA/NC border with light winds and plenty of low-level moisture for mainly low stratus but some patchy fog. Cigs should rise through the morning hours, with shras/tstms likely today as A shortwave trough approaches from the west. Low cigs/vsbys expected in areas of heavier rain, as well as again tonight following the pcpn. Outlook: Conditions are expected to improve Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds back into the region. A cold front approaches the region Friday bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.
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&& .MARINE... Latest obs/buoy reports reflect S-SW flow across most of the waters this morning, with light/variable winds across southern-most zones as quasi-stationary boundary lingers from just north of Currituck light/Currituck Sound...extending back inland. Model timing has trended a bit faster, and as such SCA for hazardous seas has been pushed up to begin this morning/midday, mainly due to increasing long period (SE) swells from what is now hurricane Gert. At this time, expect seas to build to 4-6 ft this aftn, with NWPS indicating the potential for seas to 7 ft north of Parramore Island tonight and early Wed. Otherwise, as Gert lifts N-NE well offshore of the Carolina/SE coast, the previously referenced quasi-stationary boundary will lift north across the area this morning through late aftn, before Gert eventually moves well out into the Atlc later late tonight into Wed night, with sfc high pressure building fm the ern Great Lakes twd New England. The high will slide off the coast late Thu/Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 kt or less thru Thu. Given sharp increase in long period swell (10-12 seconds by afternoon), will go ahead with high rip risk over southern beaches today...continuing Moderate Rip across the north. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from noon today to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAM

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