Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010551 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 151 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. $$ .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LATEST MSAS SHOWING A SFC HIGH EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SERN STATES FROM SC NW THRU TN/KY/IL TO A SFC LOW IN MO. MEANWHILE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN IVOF I95 CORRRIDOR. MODELS PROGG THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS SRN VA BY 12Z SNAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE MTS TO THE LOW THAT MOVES EAST INTO OHIO. RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS INDICATION LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG WARM FRONT. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE BEST CHCS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA ALONG THE NORTHWARD LIFTING TROF/FRNT THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS SERN COASTAL AREAS. THUS HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NW WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COAST PER CRNT OBS. TEMPS THERE SHOULD STDY OUT NEXT FEW HRS AND MAY EVEN RISE A BIT ACROSS SRN AREAS AS THE WARM FRNT APPRCHS. LOWS NEAR THE CURRENT TEMPS FROM THE U40S-M50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL. COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR TO BORDERLINE MFVR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME -RA MOVING ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. EXPECTING -RA TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTING CIGS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WARM FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF RAIN BETWEEN 12Z-18Z AT KRIC AND KSBY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES (EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR KSBY) WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORN WITH SEAS UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED THRU 4 AM. THE SUB-SCA E FLOW THIS MORN BCMS SELY THEN SLY LATER TODAY AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM/JEF MARINE...JDM/MAS

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