Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021955 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 355 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY SE VA AND NE NC...BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN 10-20 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WHEN ONE HOUR RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES REACHED 3.00 INCHES. REPORTS FROM THE 911 DISPATCH CENTER CONSIST OF NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AND ROAD CLOSURES. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE TIDEWATER...PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS...AND NORTHEAST NC... URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECEIVED IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BLOSSOMED BTWN 1230 AND 200 PM TODAY...WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING OBSERVED. THIS IS NOT ONLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL (AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS) BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN AVERAGED 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST GUST OF 43 MPH MEASURED AT SUFFOLK AIRPORT (KSFQ). OVERALL RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING IS STARTING TO TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS. JUST NORTH OF HERE...EXPECT THE STORMS TO RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH N-NE WINDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM THE MARINE LAYER WILL ACT TO FURTHER STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND SW VA HAS FIRED UP INVOF AN UPPER TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE TN VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED BTWN THE I-85 AND I-81 TRAVEL CORRIDORS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO SUPPORT INCOMING CONVECTION GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE ERN PIEDMONT...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TWD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING AND FLATTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING... THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TN VALLEY LOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT- RANGE MODELS SHOW VARIOUS BULLSEYES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND SINCE IT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WELL DURING THIS AFTN...WILL CARRY 70-80 PERCENT POP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MORE DAMP FEELING THAN MUGGY TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S. NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER. RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S... RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 60S. NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER. HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC ATTM..CONTG INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS. CDFNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE S ACRS THE RGN INTO TNGT...BECOMING STNRY OVR NC FOR WED. LIFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS (MNLY DUE TO CIGS) XPCD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TNGT THROUGH WED ALG W/ INTERMITTENT RA CHCS. ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS (MNLY INVOF NE NC) CAN BE EXPECTED WED THEN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THIS REGION AND SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY RISEN TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009. ALSO UPDATED NEXT 3 PERIODS PER LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES MODELS. DID NOT GO WITH WORST-CASE HI-RES ARW SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT NE WINDS OF 20+ KT ALL THE WAY TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT DID INCREASE WINDS A BIT AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER BAY FOR 20 KT WINDS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER/MOUTH OF THE BAY. EVEN IF HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR MOST AREAS. SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WED (WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN AREAS) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN 3-4 FT ACRS THE SOUTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS. PER THE ONSHORE FLOW ALSO RAISED RIP RISK TO MODERATE FOR THE MD ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...JDM/LKB

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