Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261528 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1128 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today as a weak front slowly drops into the area. The front then lingers across the region through most of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Update as of 11 am... Bumped up pops a little along and south of the I-64 corridor for the afternoon hours given latest Hi-Res guidance showing a concentration of storms developing by 18Z. Not all areas will receive rain, but for those that do, the rain will be heavy given PW`s in excess of 2". In the meantime, the heat will continue to be the big story with a heat advisory remaining in place for the majority of the area. NE (onshore) winds and temps running several degrees cooler than yesterday will preclude the need for a heat advisory for our lower MD eastern shore counties. Previous discussion... Another hot and humid day in store for today with hi pressure remaining off the se coast. A heat advisory is in effect for all areas other than the Lower MD Eastern Shore with aftn temps in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s leading to heat indices in the 105-109 range. As for rain chances...weak perturbations in the flow aloft along with a weak boundary dropping south towards the area and a thermal trough still over the region will allow for chances for aftn tstms everywhere. The threat of severe wx will be low (marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will be possible in any tstm. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shra/tstm chcs continue tonight as the aforementioned front sags south across the area. Best support for tstms shifts towards the coast after midnite. Still warm and humid with lows only in the mid/upr 70s. Westerly flow aloft will allow for the boundary to stall over the region Wednesday. Enough moisture and support for chc pops (30-40%) across the area. Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be highest across se VA/ne NC with heat indices approaching 105. Light westerly flow aloft allows the frontal boundary to linger across the fa Wed nite. Latest model data suggests the boundary lifts back north as a warm front Thurs / Thurs nite to near the mason-dixon line in response to a series of weak disturbances progged to track east along it. Data also shows a lingering sfc trof in lee of mts. Given the available low level moisture...expect enuf triggers across the region to carry chc pops through the period. Continued humid with lows both nites in the mid-upr 70s. Highs Thurs in the low-mid 90s. Dewpoints will be highest across se VA/ne NC with heat indices approaching 105. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Stacked high pressure over the Southeast Coast will briefly breakdown and wsw flow aloft will persist Thu night through Sat night...followed by a return to more zonal/westerly flow aloft on Sun. A series of weather disturbances will pass across the region as a thermal boundary/lee trough remains over the area. A cold front is expected to approach the region on Sun. Overall, this weather pattern will provide a focus for thunderstorm development and keep a chance for storms in the forecast each aftn/evening. Areal coverage fluctuates with each passing model run and will therefore maintain more broad brushed POP grids. Pwats around 2.00-2.25 inches and dewpoints generally in the low-mid 70s will result in muggy conditions with ample moisture present across the area. Therefore, anticipated impacts from any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall due to weak steering flow aloft (20kt average) and strong gusty winds. Combine the humidity with temperatures remaining in the lower 90s, and heat indices will continue to run around 100-104 degrees with a few pockets in far SE VA/NE NC reaching 105-106 degrees for an hour or two each aftn. Lows generally in the low-mid 70s inland and mid-upper 70s beaches. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Vfr conditions to start off the 12z taf period with hi pres still off the se cst and a weak cold frnt dropping in from the n. Vfr expected to continue today outside of any aftn/eveng shras/tstms where brief mvfr/ifr is possible. Went with vcsh at the taf sites to account for just scattered precip. Winds vrb at times as well with some sea breeze influences possible. Outlook...The aforementioned front will remain in the general vicinity through the rest of the week...with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day through Saturday. && .MARINE... Generally benign marine conditions expected this week. Winds over the Bay this morng are avgg ~15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt so issued a marine weather statement there. The winds will decrease thru the morng hours as a weak frntal bndry drops into the area...with winds becoming vrb by this aftn. Winds aob 10 kt will continue tngt into Wed with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. Outlook... Warm front lifts north of the waters by Thurs keeping a light S-SE flow across the region. Expect winds aob 10 KTS with seas arnd 2 FT. && .CLIMATE... Norfolk reached 101 degrees on Monday. This is the first time that it reached 100 degrees or higher on two consecutive days since July 22-23, 2011. No records have been set so far during the current heat spell. Records Mon (7/25) * RIC: 105 (2010) Actual high 96 * ORF: 105 (2010) Actual high 101 * SBY: 100 (2010) Actual high 95 * ECG: 97 (1949) Actual high 94 Tuesday will see highs well into the 90s. Forecast highs are below the record highs for the 26th but the record of 97 at ECG appears to be the one closest to being threatened. Records Tue (7/26) * RIC: 100 (1940) * ORF: 100 (1940) * SBY: 102 (1940) * ECG: 97 (1949) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS/MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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