Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231418 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1018 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FOG HAS QUICKLY BURNED OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS DSPTG AS WELL. WEAH HIGH PRS OVR THE RGN TO PROVIDE A RETURN TO ABV NRML TMPS TDY DUE TO PLNTY OF SUNSHINE AND A W-SW WIND. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HOLD OFF MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTR 21Z...SO BACKED OFF POPS A BIT ERLY THIS AFTR XCPT ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC WHERE LINGERING TROF MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. HIGHS L-M90S...A BIT COOLER AT THE BEACHES. DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AOB 100. PVS DSCN: DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST (THIS MORNING) TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, BECOMING OVERCAST LATE ACROSS THE N/NW (PARTLY CLOUDY SE). AS FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THEA AREA LATE TONIGHT, WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHRAS/ISO T DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST...POTENTIALLY REACHING NORTHERN CWA BY DAY BREAK. THEREFORE WENT WITH A 30-40% POP ACROSS THE NORTH...20% FARTHER SOUTH. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AC RS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTN. UNFORTUNATELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA (NAMELY CENTRAL VA/RICHMOND METRO) WHERE PCPN DEFICITS PAST MONTH OR SO AVG A COUPLE/FEW INCHES, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT BEST FORCING COINCIDENT WITH 60-70KT RRQ OF UPPER JET ARRIVING BY THU AFTN AND ORIENTED FROM UPSTATE SC/CENTRAL NC TOWARDS THE TIDEWATER AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BEST POP/HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THU AFTN/EVENING, GRADUALLY SPREADING SE AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NE NC THU NGT/EARLY FRI. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS FAR SE CWA LT THU AND MUCH OF FRI. OTHERWISE, FOR BULK OF FA...GRADUAL DRYING FM THE NW TO SE IS INDICATED AS SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. DROP POPS OFF FOR MOST AREAS THU NGT, BUT DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACRS COASTAL NE NC THROUGH FRI AFTN. OTHERWISE CLEARING AND BECOMING A BIT DRIER LATE THU THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE M/U80S N...U80S TO L90S S THU. HIGHS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...L/M80S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COASTAL VA/NC BORDER WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST 23/0800Z. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WARM FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VARIABLE VISIBILITIES OF 1-5SM AND CIGS FLUCTUATING BTWN 100-1000 FT AGL. AT THIS TIME...KECG AND KSBY SHOULD BE MOST ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM POSSIBLE AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT AGL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 23/1400Z. OTHERWISE...EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTN TODAY AND ALL TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IMPACTED. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SHUNT PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE. CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SWITCHING ANYWHERE FROM ESE TO S TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...BECOMING 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WNW. A PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT (AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE OVER OCEAN). THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. WINDS TURN TO A MORE S-SW DIRECTION TONIGHT...W-NW ON THU...THEN N THU NIGHT. WAVES GENERALLY 1 FOOT THIS MORNING...BUILDING TO 1-2 FT BY MID-LATE AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS MORNING... BUILDING TO 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WAVES/SEAS START TO SUBSIDE THU AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ALONG THE NC COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE PRECIP TO BECOME SHUNTED OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING...BRINGING A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX RADAR OFFLINE ATTM DUE TO A TRANSMITTER FAILURE ON-SITE. TECHNICANS WILL BE DISPATCHED LATER THIS MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE PASSED ALONG AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD EQUIPMENT...

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