Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250539 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 139 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FYI...echoes drifting e across somerset county md appear to be chaff as sat pictures/sfc obs do not support pcpn in that area. Otw...expect mainly clear skies as high pres builds into the region from the w. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time this season (see climate section). Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr 70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive than other long range models and have therefore trended the forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri. Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend. Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24 hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected. Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.
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&& .MARINE... West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun... building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) Average 1st 90 deg day: RICMay 13 ORFMay 17 SBYMay 27 1st 90 deg day last year (2015): RICMay 12 ORFMay 12 SBYJun 1 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB/LSA MARINE...BMD CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.