Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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312 FXUS61 KAKQ 161204 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 704 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the southeast states today, and moves off the Carolina coast Sunday and Monday. The local area remains in between weak low pressure to the south and strong low pressure over Canada on Tuesday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis indicates sfc high pressure centered from the Gulf coast ENE to along the NC coast, with low pressure now well off the mid-Atlc and southern New England coast. Skies have become clear over the entire CWA and with generally cold temperatures averaging in the 20s (though with a lot of variability due to local effects where a few kt of wind will temporarily raise readings several degrees). For today, the sfc high will slowly build ENE and become centered from AL to southern NC, bringing a WSW low level flow to the CWA. Some mid clouds look to brush through the northern 1/2 of the area from 15-21Z so it`ll avg out partly sunny north and mostly sunny south. Highs today will range from the upper 40s north and near the coast to the lower 50s SW. Mainly clear with light winds tonight and will side with the cold edge of guidance under good radiational cooling conditions. Lows will avg in the mid-upper 20s inland to the lower 30s along the SE VA/NE NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc high pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak sfc trough pushes across the Great Lakes. Some upper level srn stream moisture will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in increasing clouds Sunday (genly mostly cloudy by aftn). Highs Sunday range from around 50F N to the mid 50s S. High pressure remains offshore Monday. A dampening srn stream wave pushes into the Tennessee Valley by Monday aftn. Mostly cloudy Sun evening with a slight chc PoP MD ern shore, otherwise measurable precip chances look too low for a mention in the gridded fcst. Decreasing clouds later Sunday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the low 40s SE. Genly partly sunny and milder Monday with highs in the upper 50s N to lower 60s S. The southern stream system to pass by to our south Mon night/Tue ahead of a stronger cold front well off to our NW. Will carry just a 20% PoP over the south Mon night and into all areas for Tue. Quite warm Tue with highs in the 60s (potentially close to 70 F depending on how much sun prevails). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The medium range period to be dominated by an upper ridge anchored from the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas, with a fairly progressive/split flow regime over most of the CONUS. This setup will keep any significant cold air locked up well to our north across Canada and the upper midwest. Latest GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement at pushing a cold front through the local area Tue night into Wed, allowing for a dry and somewhat cooler day Wed with highs mainly 50-55 F. A weakening/southern stream system is progged to lift ENE over the southern states Wed night and off the SE coast Thu (the ECMWF and GEM being farther north and stronger with this feature than the GFS). For Wed night, have trended clouds and PoPs up a little bit from previous forecast to 20% central zones and 30% in NC, but still appears as if most of the deeper moisture stays south. This looks to be an all rain event attm with lows in areas with PoPs mainly in the mid/upper 30s. Drying out Thu with high temperatures remaining close to seasonal averages in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures trend back up above climate normals for Friday with winds swinging back out of the southwest. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clear skies/P6SM prevail at all sites. Light/variable winds 5kt or less through mid morning, shift to the WSW generally around 10 knots from 15-21Z today (a few gusts close to 20 kt possible at KSBY). VFR, but some mid level clouds with cigs of 10-20k ft to affect northern sites. Light SW winds/mainly SKC tonight. Outlook: High pressure builds along the SE/Carolina coast Sunday, then shifts off the SE coast Sun night/Mon. VFR conditions prevail but mid level clouds increase. Weak low pressure approaches from the WSW Monday, but much of the moisture is expected to remain south of the region. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday and pushes through by Wednesday with only a minimal chance of shower Tuesday into Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... All SCA headlines have been cancelled with this forecast package with winds down to 10-15 kt over the Bay/Sound and seas over coastal wtrs down to mainly 2-3 ft. Sfc low pressure rapidly pushes offshore today as high pressure builds over the SE states. Slight increase in pressure gradient this evening may lead to winds close to SCA criteria over the Bay, but confidence is not high enough attm to issue a headline. Otws, sub-SCA conditions over the next few days as the sfc high slides off the SE coast and low pressure passes well north of the local area with a lack of any CAA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...AJB/LKB AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...MAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.