Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 312000 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA. ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK. THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...WRS MARINE...MAS

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