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150
FXUS61 KAKQ 070758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot
and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe
weather, especially mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

The latest WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well of the
east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area. Aloft,
a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high
plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH
Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place
over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the
area. Most of the earlier shower/tstm activity has waned, but
there are still a few showers over the ern shore, and also down
near the VA-NC border. Areas of fog have developed in the
piedmont from FVX to LKU where the sky cleared out after
midnight with a moist boundary layer. Have issued an SPS for
now, and will monitor to see if the lower VSBYs become more
widespread (uncertain as an area of mid level clouds is
approaching from the west and would tend to improve VSBYs).
Otherwise, mild and humid early this morning with lows from
around 60F in the piedmont to the mid/upper 60s twds the coast.

For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary
threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a
little steeper today compared to the past few days with the
expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning
into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as
upper level flow become NW as the upper ridge W of the
Appalachians amplifies. Expect the storm coverage to be a bit
less but still in the high chc range this aftn (mainly 40-50%),
with a bit lower coverage over the SW zones. The best
instability will over the SE (just inland from the coast) this
aftn. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s across most of the
region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later
aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the
winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this
evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent
signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect
the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in
the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a
lee trough and the approach of a cold front, will lead to off
and on shower/storm chances Tue through Thu. These will likely
follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the
aftn through late evening. Increasingly warmer conditions are
expected for Tue and Wed, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to
mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to around 90 Wed. Not as warm on
Thu with highs mainly in the 80s. Summer-like heat and humidity
will ensure presence of instability all three days. A ridge
briefly builds just to the W of the region on Tue, placing the
local area in NW flow aloft. There does look to be increasing
shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The SPC has placed
areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tue. The flow aloft
then turns back to the WSW for Wed and strengthens, which will
allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal
risk on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thu, as
flow aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the
front, (quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the
FA. While there is still some uncertainty, Thu has the potential
for the highest coverage of severe storms this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Showers/tstms will exit out to sea Thu night, as a cold front
pushes to the coast. Then, a secondary front and upper trough
will push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing
the chance for more showers. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Highs on Fri mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The
weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight
to small chance of showers (isolated thunder) for Sat aftn
through Sun. Dry air also means lower humidity with dewpoints
dropping into the 40s-50s. Just below normal to normal temps
expected for Sat through Mon. Highs will be in the lower 70s
Sat, in the lower to mid 70s Sun, and in the mid to upper 70s
Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered showers and storms continue this evening with locally
heavy rain and IFR VIS. CIGs were generally VFR/MVFR. CIGs are
expected to lower overnight to MVFR/IFR with the best chance for
IFR CIGs where storms have been riding a boundary late this
afternoon and evening (N portions of the FA including RIC and
SBY). Lower confidence exists for ORF/PHF with ECG likely to
remain MVFR. Showers taper off from W to E overnight and into
Tue morning with CIGs improving to MVFR by early-mid morning.
Additionally, with the locally heavy rainfall this evening,
expect patchy to locally dense fog to develop inland (over areas
that received the most rain). MVFR/IFR VIS is possible with the
fog. Any fog quickly erodes after sunrise. CIGs remain VFR/MVFR
Tue with isolated to scattered storms developing in the
afternoon and evening. Models are also beginning to hint that a
marine layer pushes onshore over the Eastern Shore Tue night
with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible. Winds remain generally
light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across
SE VA/NE NC. Winds become variable ~5 kt N and SW ~10 kt S Tue
afternoon.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Tue
night through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
The greatest chance for storms is Thu with strong to severe
storms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Surface high pressure continues to move further offshore this
afternoon, while a stalled frontal boundary remains just north of
the local waters. Current conditions are rather benign with
west/southwesterly winds around 8-12kt. Waves are 1 foot or less
with seas of 2-3ft. This trend looks to persist through Wednesday
with winds from the south-southeast to southwest around 10kt. There
may be occasional gusts to 20kt keeping conditions below SCA
criteria. However, there will be chances for thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening, which could produce erratic, strong wind
gusts over the waters. Otherwise, southwest winds will gradually
increase some ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Models
differ in the expected speeds/overall pattern, but will keep an eye
on the potential for SCA conditions at least across the Bay
Friday/Friday night as winds turn northwesterly behind the front.
Rain/storm chances continue through the remainder of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head)
will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides
early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance
suggests the high tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit
more in the way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay -
due mostly to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week
as we approach the new moon phase.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...LKB/RMM
MARINE...LKB/JKP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...