Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 252153 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 453 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING...AND THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS TX...WITH A 160KT JET DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. STRONG LIFT IN THE RRQ OF THE JET IS IN VICINITY OF THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND...WHICH IS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE GULF...NE ACROSS FL...AND OVER THE GULF STREAM. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ORGANIZE AND TRACK NE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT...REACHING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z WED. A PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL (700MB) FRONTOGENESIS...WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS N...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS N ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S...AND WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. CAA REMAINS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE INCH OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...WITH THE BORDERING COUNTIES EXPERIENCING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED SURFACES SO NO ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY WANES. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2.0-2.5IN OVER SE VA/NE NC...TO 1.0-1.5IN ELSEWHERE. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. LOCALIZED LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TUE MORNG. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FLORIDA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY (SE COAST/CAROLINAS) AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A STEADY STREAM OF PRECIPITATION WILL PASS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO COVER ALL OF NE NC...ERN/CNTRL VA...AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE AFTER 26/0500Z (OR MIDNIGHT EST). CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO LOW- END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AS STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS RAINFALL RATES BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KSBY- KRIC-KAVC. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE VICINITY OF KLKU... INCLUDING LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES. GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AVERAGE 10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY-KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE EAST CST THIS EVENG INTO WED NGT. DATA SUPPORTIVE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVR CSTL WTRS (UP TO 40 KTS) AND SRN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND (35 KTS) WED. SO...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WRNGS FOR THESE AREAS DURING WED...WITH STRONG SCA`S ACRS THE MIDDLE BAY AND RIVERS. WINDS N-NE TO START THEN SWITCH TO NW...AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED NGT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE WTRS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT ALLOWS SEAS TO BLD TO BTWN 6-10 FT (HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM). SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES WED NGT...AS THE LO QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THU MORNG BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG BEHIND UPR LVL LO THAT EXITS OFF THE CST. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA FRI AFTN/NGT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT TO THE ATLC WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY DUE TO STRONG NNE FLOW WED MORNING LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUE IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER WED/WED NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. && .EQUIPMENT... THE ASOS AT SALISBURY MD IS EXPERIENCING HARDWARE FAILURES. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO VISIT THE SITE THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656- 658. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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