Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050015 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 815 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NJ ALONG CHES BAY INTO ERN NC. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP IN ERN VA WITH A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GLANCING THE ERN PIEDMONT. NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWDACRS THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO CAT (80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU AFTN...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST 40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. POPS REMAIN AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO 20-30% LATER FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR TROF AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW). && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED BUT DISSIPATING SHOWERS WERE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IFR CONDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN COMES AS TO HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT OCCURS ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM MOS WHICH DID FAIRLY WELL DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR AT ALL SITES AND TO LOW END MVFR IN THE AFTN AT RIC PHF AND ECG. ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN TO ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT SBY. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT (POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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