Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261513 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1013 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 10 AM...HEAVIER SNOW WAS MOVING THRU THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR...WITH JUST LIGHT RDR ECHOES LINGERING OVR OTHER AREAS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACRS THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVSYS DUE TO SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. PREV DISCUSSION... SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BANDS SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA. NORTHERN BAND SETTING UP NORTH OF RICHMOND WITH THE 2ND FROM THE TRI-CITIES TO MIDDLE PENINSULA AND ERN SHORE. HEAVIER RETURNS/SLEET LIFTING INTO SE VA/NE NC. ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW REACHING THE PIEDMONT AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. IR SATELLITE INDICATING DRYING ALOFT AS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS PUSH OFFSHORE. THE SFC LOW...LOCATED JUST OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENDING THE PRECIP INTO CNTRL VA BY 9-10AM AND THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE BY NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VA AND THE ERN SHORE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1-2 INCHES...BUT BANDING MAY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MORE THAN THAT AS SNOW GROWTH LAYER QUICKLY DRIES OUT. PREV DISCUSSION... AS OF 4AM EDT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH A 150+ KT UPPER JET STREAK EXITING THE NE COAST. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEX STRETCHING ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO CNTRL/ERN VA IN LOW LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW. PER BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER...PWATS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 0.70 INCHES (120% OF NORMAL) IN SE VA. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE...STRONG UVM AND OVERRUNNING HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL REPORTED GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND AS OF THIS WRITING WITH LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND WEST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SE VA HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS OF 4AM EDT. THE HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE SET UP GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO SMITHFIELD/NORFOLK AND THE LOWER ERN SHORE. PER DUAL POL RADAR AND SPOTTER/MEDIA REPORTS...SOME SLEET HAS MIXED IN ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC...WITH RAIN REPORTED FOR A PERIOD AT ELIZABETH CITY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS SE VA...NEAR THE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS THUS FAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...LOCATING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 7AM EDT. UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX LIFTS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST...WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING OUT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OVER CNTRL VA BY MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THE SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. EXPECT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CNTRL VA BY MID MORNING. FARTHER SE...SNOW WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER OFF...ENDING BY MID-LATE MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD OFF THE COAST THRU THE MORNING...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH THERMAL ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE NRN NECK TO ERN SHORE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH NOON. NE WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SE COAST AND 35 TO 40 MPH OUTER BANKS. SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST. SECONDARY/WEAKER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TODAY AS STRONG 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. PVA IN TANDEM WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN BUFR SOUNDINGS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY...WARMING ONLY A FEW DEGS FROM CURRENT TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES NW TO 6-10 INCHES SE VA. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO SMITHFIELD/HAMPTON AND CAPE CHARLES...WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED. LOWER NE NC (3-6 INCHES) WHERE SLEET/RAIN MIX IN WITH SNOW. RICHMOND STILL ON TRACK TO SEE 3-6 INCHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... BRISK NNE WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AS 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VLY TOWARDS THE AREA. NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN W-SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING GENERAL MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND COOL PERIOD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH BUT WITH CLOUD COVER DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY PLUMMET. HIGHS FRI MAINLY 30-35. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POP CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM N TO S ON SATURDAY AS HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER FOR FRI/EARLY SAT, FRESH SNOWFALL AND ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SAT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FRI NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A ~1040MB HIGH SITUATED OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS O AROUND 20 DEGREES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH WAA ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO UPPER 40S S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AT THIS TIME 30-40% POPS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE -RA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BEGIN AS -SN OR IP SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NE...TO THE MID 50S SW...ALTHOUGH WARMER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER. 12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30-35 RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 40S N...TO NEAR 50 S. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATER WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MAINLY -RA IS EXPECTED...WITH A POSSIBLE MIX AT THE ONSET OVER NW PORTIONS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR SBY WHERE IT WILL START WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VSBYS AND CIGS QUICKLY DROP INTO IFR RANGE ALONG WITH FZFG AS TMPS DROP AOB FREEZING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SERN COAST TONIGHT QUICKLY MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF SLEET THEN RAIN FIRST AT ECG THEN ORF LATER TONIGHT THEN PHF AROUND 12Z. EXPECT SBY AND RIC TO STAY ALL SNOW THRU THE EVENT. WILL WATCH A DRY SLOT CURRETLY PUNCHING NE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ACROSS SERN TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. OTW...PCPN TAPERS OFF W-E BTWN 15-18Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFFSHORE. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE / FZ DRIZZLE AT THE VERY END AS MID-LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN WITH A CHANGE OVER ACROSS SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A NORTH WIND...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLRG AFTR 18Z. THUS...KEPT A 1-2K FT SC DECK AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE END OF FCST PERIOD DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WEDGE SCENARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS ARND THROUGH A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE AT KECG ASOS. && .MARINE... CURRENT GALE/SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST RACES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA BASICALLY FOLLOWING THE GULF STREAM WALL TODAY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH 18Z. SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. SEAS QUICKLY RISE (5-7 FT ACROSS THE NRN WATERS...7-10 FT SRN WATERS) OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS N OF THE REGION TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST AND THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE SUB-SCA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS TIME-PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW MONDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 33.0 F (-9.4 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND TH COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: * RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0" * NORFOLK: 5.9" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8". && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>016-030>032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ017-102. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060>098. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099- 100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-049. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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