Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 010335
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1035 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
A cold front will approach from the west early this evening,
then pushes across the Mid Atlantic region and off the coast
late this evening into Thursday morning. High pressure slowly
builds into the area Thursday through Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Update...Strongest showers located from nrn King and Queen County
and extending up into the MD Lower Eastern Shore. Although wind
gusts of 30-40 mph were observed earlier, the showers are showing
signs of weakening...especially as they move into the more stable
airmass present over the Eastern Shore. The rain will continue to
push ewd into the early morning hours and should exit the coast
shortly after sunrise.
Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was cntrd over Lake Huron. A
cold front extended fm the low swd thru cntrl OH and ern KY/TN.
As of 4 pm, latest rdr showed sctd showers moving NE into NE NC
and extrm SE VA, while the leading edge of the main area of
showers in advance of the cold front was pushing into extrm wrn
and swrn VA. These showers will slide ENE acrs the remainder of
the CWA and off the coast later this evening into early Thu
morning. Otherwise, QPF amounts will average arnd .25 inch or
less. Clearing out fm WNW to ESE late tngt into Thu morning...as
westerly flow behind the front starts to usher drier air into the
region. Lows will range fm near 50 extrm NW to the lower 60s SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather expected Thu thru Sat...as WNW flow dominates the
area. Sfc high pressure will gradually build toward the region fm
the WNW. Clear to partly cloudy thru the period. Highs on Thu will
be above normals with readings ranging fm the upper 50s to upper
60s. Lows Thu ngt in the mid 30s to arnd 40. Near normal/below
normal highs expected for Fri and Sat. Highs on Fri in the lower
to mid 50s, and highs on Sat in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows
Fri ngt in the 30s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool high pressure is expected to be centered over the Mid-
Atlantic region Saturday night, before gradually sliding offshore
later Sunday. A split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn
stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn
stream wave diving into the Great Lakes. This will result in dry
conditions Saturday night, with a mostly clear sky Saturday
evening, followed by increasing clouds later Saturday night, and
then mostly cloudy by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be
below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows
Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s
along the coast, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s to around 50.
The Great Lakes system passes to the north Sunday night as the
Gulf system passes to the south. 30/12z GFS/CMC each split the
moisture north and south of the region, with the 30/12z ECMWF and
GEFS mean depicting some light rain passing through the region. A
20-30% PoP is forecast for this time period, followed by drier
conditions Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s, after morning
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure slides offshore
Monday night as low pressure approaches from the west. This system
crosses the area Tuesday, with high pressure returning Wednesday,
ahead of yet another low pressure system approaching from the
west. Highs Tuesday should again be in the low/mid 50s, and
moderating to the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. Morning lows
should be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front will cross the region later tonight bringing the
chance for showers. Winds will pick up as the front continues to
approach the area. Expecting gusts mainly up to 25 knots with the
passage of the front. Winds will slowly veer behind the front.
Have been seeing mainly VFR conditions at all TAF sites
this evening. Am expecting periods of MVFR conditions with
the precipitation later tonight, brief IFR cannot also be ruled
Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west through Friday
and settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry
conditions can be expected. There will be a chance for rain
Sunday night and Monday as a weak low pressure moves from the
Lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast States.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Low pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this aftn, with a
cold front trailing back through the Ohio Valley. A s wind is
averaging 10-15kt this aftn, but this should increase by this
evening through the early overnight hours as low pressure passes n
of the area and the cold front arrives from the w. The wind should
gradually become sw and increase to 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt
possible. The cold front will move offshore late tonight with the
wind becoming w and diminishing to 10-15kt. Seas build to 4-6ft s
to 5-7ft n, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay. Current SCA flags remain
as is. Vsby has improved n of Parramore Is., so the dense fog
advisory has been allowed to expire. A w to nw wind at
10-15kt/15-20kt ocean continues behind the front Thursday into
Friday. A modest CAA surge arrives Friday night into Saturday and
this could produce low-end SCA conditions for the nrn portion of
the marine area. High pressure builds into the area Sunday, with
weak low pressure crossing the region Sunday night, and high
pressure returning Monday.
Well above normal temperatures are forecast today. Some
temperatures will approach record highs.
Richmond: 77 (1933)
Norfolk: 79 (2001)
Salisbury: 74 (1933)
Elizabeth City: 80 (2001)
Wallops Island: 74 (1991)
Record high mins challenged:
Salisbury 61 (2001) (tied as of this morning)
Elizabeth City 60 (1934)
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ654-656-
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.