Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272027 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 427 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sink south through the region this evening and overnight. The front will drop into the Carolinas Sunday, and then return north as a warm front Sunday night. Another cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Storm complex was ongoing this afternoon across east-central KY pushing east with the upper wave. Showers and a few storms were also oriented E-W along the cold front across MD and WV. Dry air in the mid levels has kept convection at bay thus far evident in the CU field as clouds develop, but then entrain dry air. Though convection is being delayed, there is till concern over the development of showers and storms in the NW flow as the front drops south and upper wave approaches from the west. Instability is still lacking this afternoon, but there may still be a window this evening where things come together mainly along and south of I-64. Given the thermal profiles if we do see severe storms the primary threat will be hail and damaging winds. 0-1km MLCAPE values are still progged to reach 1000-1500 J/kg wither side of the NC/VA border, with a decent mid/upper level speed max resulting in 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kt. Downdraft potential remains rather high if storms can develop given thermal profiles. Any showers or storms which develop should push quickly east and southeast with little to no precip possible in the southeast after midnight. The chc for showers/tstms diminishes NW- SE tonight with lows generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The initial shortwave trough pushes offshore Sunday morning, with shortwave ridging building over the Mid-Atlantic. The surface cold front drops into the Carolinas Sunday with N/NE flow developing across the region in the wake of the mid-level trough and surface cold front. Variably cloudy with some patchy morning stratus or fog possible. Cooler over the Ern Shore with highs in the low/mid 70s. Highs generally in the low/mid 80s for central/srn VA and interior NE NC. The surface boundary returns newd into the region late Sunday aftn into the evening and early overnight hours. This will combine with another shortwave trough resulting in an increasing possibility of showers/tstms approaching from the west during the evening and overnight hours. 0-6km bulk shear rapidly increases to 35-45kt after 00z resulting in a chc of a few strong to marginally severe tstms mainly during the evening. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Monday morning, and then continue ewd Monday aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected Memorial Day aftn/evening. There is some model disagreement with respect to coverage, so PoPs will remain 30-50%. Increasing WSW flow aloft ahead of a trough digging across the Great Lakes will yield 0- 6km bulk shear values of 40-50kt. This will combine with 1000-2000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE resulting in the potential for severe thunderstorms. Partly sunny then mostly cloudy on Memorial Day with highs ranging through the 80s, with the potential for near 90 SE, and 70s along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term period beginning Tuesday night features near normal temperatures and generally low chances for precipitation. Weak and poorly defined frontal boundaries affect the area and confidence in the details of the precipitation forecast are rather low. Thunderstorm chances Wednesday were kept relatively low as weak high pressure builds in. A frontal boundary moves in for Thursday and settles just off the coast Friday and Saturday. Highest POPs (30 to 40 percent) are currently set for southern portions on Friday afternoon and evening. High temperatures are forecast to range from 80 to 85 Wednesday and Thursday and the upper 70s to around 80 Friday and Saturday. Readings will be a bit lower near the coast. Lows are expected to range from 60 to 65. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 17z...conditions were fairly quiet across the area with solid VFR conditions. River breezes were apparent on the NEXRAD reflectivity and winds at ORF were out of the northeast off the Bay. Still expect convection to develop late in the afternoon and have TEMPO groups for thunderstorms at RIC from 22 to 00Z and at the three southeast sites from 00 to 02z. These will be updated as needed. Strong to possibly severe winds gusts (50kt or higher) will be possible with the thunderstorms. Model consensus suggest widespread stratus for Sunday morning which would be reasonable given wet ground conditions from precipitation limited low level mixing and developing onshore flow. Included low ceilings at RIC with a broken to overcast sky across the area through. OUTLOOK...The chance for showers/tstms returns Sunday evening/night and again Monday aftn/evening. Minimal chances for aftn/evening showers/tstms persist into Tuesday through Thursday. Stratus and patchy fog will be possible each morning. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, weak low pressure was extending fm the cntrl VA piedmont westward into the OH valley. Winds were generally SE 5 to 15 kt over the waters, with Waves ~1 foot and seas 1-2 ft. The low pressure area will move ESE acrs the region and to the coast this evening into early Sun morning. Winds will become SSW south of the low and ENE north of the low, as the low moves thru. Speeds will be arnd 10 kt or less, but stronger in any tstms. Flow becomes NE or N at 5-15 kt Sun morning, as the low slides just off the Mid Atlc coast. The low stalls offshore for the remainder of Sun, as high pressure nudges in fm the northeast. Flow becomes onshore thru Sun evening at 5-15 kt. The next area of low pressure lifts over the eastern Great Lakes region Sun night and into eastern Canada on Memorial Day. A trailing cold front reaches the waters late Mon into Mon night, then washing out over NC during Tue, as high pressure slowly builds in fm the west thru Thu. Winds generally at or below 15 kt. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG

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