Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 200037
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
837 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017
High pressure builds over the local area tonight into Monday. A
cold front approaches from the northwest Monday night and
settles into the area Tuesday. Low pressure tracks across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Clearing taking place as upper level low pres moves well ESE of
HSE, though there is still an area of BKN cloud cover along
portions of the I-95 corridor as of 23Z so have adjusted gridded
forecast accordingly. Still expect skies to continue to clear
out later this evening...while NNW winds remain gusty. Winds
wane overnight...lastly invof coast w/ mainly SKC after midnight.
Lows in the u20s- l30s inland to the m-u30s right along the
immediate coast in SE VA-NE NC.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions prevail Mon as sfc hi pres over the FA in the
morning...drifts SE through the afternoon. NW winds again on
Mon...though speeds will be (quite a bit) lower (than today).
Mainly sunny in the morning...then increasing clouds in the
afternoon...esp NW as mid-level WAA strengthens. Milder Mon
w/ with highs in the l-m50s along the coast to the l-m60s
A weakening cold front approaches from the NW Mon night w/
cloud cover continuing to spread across the region. A 20-40%
PoPs for SHRAS is forecast...mainly central/nrn portions w/
largely minimal QPF. The (weakened) cold front drops SE through
the local area Tue w/ mostly cloudy/VRB clouds prevailing.
Keeping SLGT chc PoPs Tue morning...then 20-30% PoPs across SW
portions ahead of low pressure developing invof TN Valley. Lows
Mon might mainly in the l-m40s. Highs Tue from the m-u50s over
the ern Shore...to around 60F near the Ches Bay, and 65-70F
farther inland across central/srn VA and interior NE NC.
Sfc low pres tracks across NC Tue night through Wed morning as a
secondary cold front arrives from the N. Will have 60-80% PoPs
across the FA into early Wed...then gradually lowering from NW
to SE by early afternoon. Drier/cooler air on gusty NNW winds
expected to spread S across the FA midday through the afternoon.
Lows Tue night ranging through the 40s. Highs Wed from the
u40s-around 50F near the coast to the l-m50s inland.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry wx will prevail acrs the area Wed night thru Fri night, as
high pressure builds down over the Mid Atlc region then slides
out to sea. Mild to warm temps then expected Sat and Sun, but
also a gradual increase in low level moisture and chcs for
showers. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu, in the mid 50s
to lower 60s Fri, in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat, and in the
upper 50s to mid 60s Sun. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wed
night, in the 30s Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s
Fri night and Sat night.
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High confidence that VFR conditions will continue through the
forecast period as high pressure builds over the region tonight.
A few clouds may work into northern portions of the area during
the first half of the night, but bases are expected to remain
above 4000 ft. Winds will diminish through the night as upper
level low pressure continues to move away from the area.
Generally clear skies with light W/NW winds is expected for
Outlook: High pressure gradually slides offshore Monday. A weak
cold front pushes through the area Monday night bringing a
20-30% chance of showers, mainly from RIC-SBY. This boundary
stalls across the region Tuesday, with low pressure tracking
along the front Tuesday night with rain and degraded flight
conditions likely. High pressure builds in from the north
Wednesday and settles over the area Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Have updated to drop all remaining Gale headlines with SCA`s.
Have also extended the High Surf Advisory for Va Beach through
10 pm and for Outer Banks Currituck through 1 am per latest
observations at Duck and other buoys.
Late this aftn, low pressure was cntrd off the srn New England
coast, while high pressure was extending fm the ern Great Lakes
SSW into KY. Strong northerly winds will gradually diminish over
the waters tonight into Mon morning, as the low moves ENE into
the nrn Atlc and the high builds into the area. SCA conditions
prevail and will continue into this evening for the Rivers,
thru tonight for the Ches Bay, and will linger over the coastal
waters thru Mon aftn due to seas.
High pressure builds southward acrs the waters Mon with NW winds
diminishing to 5-15 knots Mon aftn. Seas finally subside below
5 feet by Mon evening. High pressure settles off the Southeast
coast Mon night, with flow becoming SW over the local waters at
5-15 knots. The next front drops slowly over the waters Tue.
The front drops south of the waters by Tue night, with low
pressure developing along the front over NC, then moving out to
sea during Wed. Expect a northerly surge very late Tue night
thru Wed, as strong high pressure builds fm the upper midwest SE
thru the Great Lakes. SCA conditions will be likely for most of
the waters fm very late Tue night into early Thu morning. High
pressure builds over the waters then moves out to sea for Thu
aftn thru Fri.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-