Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172109 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will track northeast just off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening into early Thursday morning. The storm tracks east northeast out to sea Thursday while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the Southeast Coast will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Thursday night through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Late this aftn, models/water vapor imagery indicated upper level low near the NC/TN border, with strong mid level vorticity/vorticity advection pushing into cntrl NC. Latest akq radar as of 330 pm showed snow was now covering just about all of the CWA except the extrm NW/nrn counties. So far, we have received snow reports ranging fm near 1 inch over nrn portions of the area to near 6 inches over scntrl VA counties. Based on the latest HRRR/RAP model trends, and anticipated upper level shortwv energy/vorticity advection and associated vertical motion transfer to the Mid Atlc coast this evening/tonight, have extended the ending times of warnings/advisories acrs the CWA. The highest snow totals will occur over scntrl VA into interior NE NC and interior SE VA. Still believe portions of extrm SE VA and coastal NE NC will have to be monitored closely this evening into tonight for possible higher amts, as models hint at enhanced frontogenetic forcing in this region. Expect 1 to 2 inches of snow before the pcpn moves off the coast very late tonight, but could see localized accumulations approaching 3 inches, esply over NE NC. Have an advisory in this area until 3 am Thu morning. Expect gradual clearing fm WNW to E overnight into Thu morning. Cold with lows ranging fm the mid teens to lower 20s. So, driving conditions will still remain slippery after pcpn ends and temps dropping. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly Thu aftn with 850mb temps -2 to -4C at 12z warming to +4-6C by 21z. A cold start to the day, limited mixing, and mid-level WAA should result in rather stable lapse rates and surface high temps should only reach the upper 30s to arnd 40. High pressure will then slide from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the SE Coast Thu night thru Sat, and bring dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows Thu night mainly in the lower to mid 20s. Highs on Fri will range fm the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri night will range fm the mid 20s to around 30. Highs on Sat will range thru the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving fits transition of MJO through phase 4 toward phase 5...leading to aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system tracking off SE CONUS coast Sun...sfc hi pres and upper level ridging will be dominant Sun into Mon. By late Mon...storm system expected to track into the wrn Great Lakes...w/ its trailing cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAs (though 12Z/17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12Z/17 GFS attm). Drying/clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal levels) for Tue afternoon-Wed. Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s on the ern shore to 55-60F elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly 35-40F. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ern shore to the u50s-l60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the l50s on the ern shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Slow moving cold front is pushing through the region accompanied by a broad area of light to moderate snow. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions perists as the area of precipitation moves eastward. SBY may experience a brief period of light snow but MVFR/IFR clouds will prevail through the afternoon and early evening. The snow has not reached ORF and ECG at 18Z and is expected to start anytime now at PHF. Warmer temps will likely see precip start as light RA at ECG later this afternoon before turning into snow. Winds will generally be N-NE with gusts 15-25 kt through the early evening. Outlook:Clearing tonight with a breezy N wind near the coast. Predominate VFR after midnight then likely Thursday through Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds across the region. && .MARINE... Sfc lo pres exits off the coast this eve...w/ continued low level CAA into Thursday (morning) before waning. NNW winds will average 15 to 25 kt...gusts to around 30 kts - esp near the lower Ches Bay and on the ocean waters. Will need to monitor for at least low end Gale gusts this eve-tonight as the lo pres system exits...esp on the lower ocean waters S of Cape Charles VA. SCAs have been raised to most of the ern VA rivers (through tonight)...otherwise no big changes to other SCA headliness attm. High pressure settles over the area for the end of the week...through the weekend allowing for diminishing winds and sub-SCA conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NCZ013-014-030. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ012. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for NCZ015>017- 031-032-102. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ048- 061-062-069-509-510. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for VAZ084-086-089-090-093-096-523>525. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ087- 088-092. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for VAZ095-097- 098-100. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for VAZ064- 075>078-081>083-085-511>522. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for VAZ060- 065>068-079-080. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635-636. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JEF MARINE...ALB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.