Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020222 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED. SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG

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