Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251926 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 326 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR TO WORK WITH...SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. SW WINDS SHIFT TO W THEN NW LATE. THIS KEEPS AIRMASS MIXED PREVENTING TMPS FROM DROPPING TO FAR. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S...XCPT M50S AT THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST... LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON. RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG. && .MARINE...
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A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO 5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS & RH`S ARND 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVR THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP INTO THE M20S BUT WITH LESS WIND.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632- 634-654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630- 631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JAB FIRE WEATHER...MPR

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