Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250535 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is expected to dominate the overall weather pattern through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return Thursday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Sfc high pressure axis is currently draped across the region from the Delmarva into Upstate SC. Mainly clear conditions exist areawide, except for a little more dense cirrus across southern VA and interior NE NC. Clouds will continue to dissipate through the evening hours with clear/mainly conditions overnight. Lows temps generally in the low-mid 60s (upper 60s immediate coast). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure axis shifts east of the Mid Atlantic coast by Thu aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a weak cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. Highs 86-91F inland and in the mid-upper 80s immediate coast as onshore winds become more southerly. Dewpoints creep up into the mid-upper 60s, which will make the ambient air feel more muggy. The weak cold front is anticipated to move through the area Fri aftn/evening. Temps warm into the low-mid 90s with dewpoints around 70F. As a result, heat index values will creep into the low 100s, however heat advisory criteria (104-109F) is not anticipated at this time. Expect isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to develop along the frontal boundary axis Fri aftn/evening... especially given the amount of cumulus development/coverage over the past few days (i.e. more than model solutions) and the anticipated influx of moisture/humidity during this timeframe. Although pwats are anticipated to reach 2.00 inches, deep moisture and lift will be fairly limited. Therefore, isolated strong wind gusts are the main impacts expected with storms attm. Any showers/storms that develop should gradually dissipate Fri evening as the front nears the coast due to loss of daytime heating/instability. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended still looks generally dry through next Wednesday as the upper ridging persists across the eastern half of the U.S. This will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of the area allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across SE VA and NE NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains and into the piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the coast, can not be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid conditions. However, given the lack of any upper support and the very dry anticendent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this time. Will maintain the slight chance pops for Tuesday into Wed as the GFS and the ECMWF suggest that the upper ridge will displace to the south allowing stronger W-NW flow aloft to move into the middle Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the afternoons/evenings as a weakening front approaches from the north. However, again at this time the chances look pretty low. Back to true summer time conditions at least temperature wise as readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s with lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as compared to the early part of this week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A ridge of high pressure has located over the southeast local area early this morning. The result is a light southerly flow inland, but calm winds near the coast. Statistical guidance continues to indicate some patchy fog at KECG, but confidence is low based on the dry air mass. Will mention a tempo group from 10-12Z. Otherwise, a mid level deck visible on satellite over the Piedmont is expected to expand and move south and east, reaching KRIC around day break. Guidance indicates the deck to be broken to locally overcast with decks 4-6k feet AGL. Thanks to an inversion aloft, mid level moisture will likely linger through the afternoon, resulting in scattered to broken cumulus through mid afternoon. Decks remain 4-6k feet AGL. Southerly winds all sites increase to 5 to 10 knots today. High pressure slides farther offshore tonight with lingering mid level clouds over the region. Winds light and southerly. OUTLOOK...A cold front approaches the area Friday. This front is expected to weaken and move to the north during the weekend. Otherwise dry weather is expected through Monday.
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&& .MARINE... Generally quiet conditions continue. As the high shifts to the northeast of the area tonight, southerly flow will develop and increase ahead of a weakening cold front/trough. May see southerly winds increase to 15 kt on Thu across the waters with waves building to up to 4 feet across the northern coastal waters. The front stalls out and dissipates over the waters for the weekend allowing winds to diminish to less than 15 kt for the weekend. Generally weak winds through early next week, although swell will be building by mid week as any swell trains from the tropical systems over the Atlantic moves westward. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...SAM/LSA MARINE...MRD

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