Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 042010 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 410 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA. SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE. THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S. NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F. ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30% POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG/DAP MARINE...JDM

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