Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021422 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1022 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE VA/COASTAL NE NC...THERE IS MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER PRESENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC COLD FRONT RESIDES OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD THROUGH TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS STUCK OVER THE TN VALLEY AND WILL PULL ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS OF 945 AM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A LEE TROUGH AXIS ARE MOVING UP THE NC COASTAL PLAIN TWD FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF THE FA. HRRR MODEL PRECIP SHOWS ADVANCING PRECIP FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING OVER SW COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE BY THIS AFTN/DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND VA/NC BORDER...PROVIDING A FOCUS AND LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (20-25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES AND ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES BECOMING MORE SATURATED BY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION... TRAINING OF STORMS COULD EXACERBATE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. BASED ON 12-24 HOUR PRECIP TOTALS VS RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS...THE MAX AMOUNT OF PRECIP RECEIVED DURING YESTERDAYS STORMS WAS NO HIGHER THAN 2.25 INCHES. KEEPING THIS IN MIND AND KNOWING THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN... DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHEN 1HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS NEEDS TO EXCEED 3.00 INCHES TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TSTORM COVERAGE AND TRENDS AS THE AFTN/EVENING UNFOLDS TO DETERMINE IF URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VA BEACH/NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AREAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES. ALSO MADE A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP MOST AREAS UP SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LACK OF RAINFALL DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CONVERSELY COOLED ERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS BY A FEW DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S. NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER. RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S... RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 60S. NOT MUCH CHANGE THU WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTN THUNDER. HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AT KSBY AROUND 08Z. OTW...EXPECTING ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY SET IN AT KRIC AND EXPECT IFR CONDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION ATTM IS CHALLENGING AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. MFVR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BE PREVALENT AT KRIC AND KSBY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CIGS FOR NOW ELSEWHERE...BUT GOOD CHANGE CIGS DETERIORATE ALL TERMINALS BY TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS NORTH/WEST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS THRU MIDDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. THE FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WED MORNING. ATTM HAVE CAPPED WINDS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT (BAY) AND 25 KT (OCEAN) TONIGHT. SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED WED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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