Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 012019 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 419 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN. OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH END OF THE WK. && .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...TMG

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