Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 080639 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... STRONG CSTL SFC LO PRES E OF ILM BEGINS TO TRACK ENE AND AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT. BACK EDGE OF PCPN (MNLY RA W/ OCNL IP) HAS REACHED IN FARTHEREST W EXTENT ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND STARTING TO PULL TO THE E (THOUGH SLOLY). XCPG CONTD PCPN NR ALL THE CST OVRNGT THOUGH TREND WILL LWR BY LT AT NGT. OTRW...CONTD WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SOME DCRG CLDNS INLAND...ESP ACRS THE PIEDMONT AFT MDNGT. LO TEMPS FM THE U20S-L30S TO M-U30S CSTL AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S. NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH. THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE M30S. FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST. TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S. UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION. THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40- 45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WED/THU. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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