Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 152135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
435 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure systems will track along that boundary
resulting in periods of unsettled weather through the first half
of the upcoming week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current analysis indicates broad sfc high pressure (~1030 mb
centered from the eastern Great Lakes to the Delmarva. WNW flow
aloft prevails. Skies have gradually cleared out over much of
the CWA though pockets of mainly cloudy conditions persist over
much of the Piedmont. temperatures have warmed to 45-50 F on
For tonight, GFS/NAm remain fairly consistent with moisture
spreading back into the region from the W. The GFS is a little
farther N and has more QPF with the precip shield later tonight
than the consensus of the remaining models, but overall trend
has been to raise POPS later tonight to likely/60% over portions
of central VA tapered to low chc POPS most other areas (think
too much dry air will remain across eastern shore for any
precip). This is a low QPF setup so despite likely POPS, QPF
will be less than 0.10" most areas. Skies remain partly cloudy
longer this evening over the E so some lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s will be possible from the nrn Neck to the eastern
shore...with lows in the mid 30s-around 40 F elsewhere.
Thicknesses show p-type mainly RA...though w/ temperatures aob
32F far NNE...could be light mixed p-type far NNE should pcpn
make it that far E after 06Z. Forcing and deeper moisture genly
wanes after 12-15Z, though skies will remain overcast and enough
low level moisture lingers for a chance of drizzle into the aftn
even as the mid levels dry out. Cool and damp with CAD setup so
highs will only avg 40-45 F most zones, except for mid-upper
40s to around 50 F far SE.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the SRN Great Lakes on
Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area. Latest
trends suggest another wet/dreary day, with likely POPS over the
northern 1/2 of the CWA, less rain and lower POPS but still
mainly cloudy across the S. Temps moderate but with all the
clouds, highs likely do not get out of the 50s (will maintain
low 60s far SE for now). Cold Front passe through Wed, and with
deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels, should see some breaks
in the clouds and a warm day with highs at least in the 60s.
Showers will be most likely across the SE where drier air is
slower to arrive, though will keep a 20-30% POP farther NW as
well as upper level shortwave will still lag behind and pass
into the region by aftn.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period begins Wednesday night with the expectation
of above normal temperatures. There is some uncertainty with the
details of PCPN. Plenty of Pacific moisture will swish across
the CONUS and an upper level ridge will briefly build over the
eastern part of the nation around Friday and Saturday.
A cold front and associated short wave move off to the southeast
Wednesday night with any showers ending that evening. Dry
weather is expected Thursday into early Friday. A short wave may
bring a few showers Friday and Friday night especially southern
portions with POPS set no higher than 30 percent. During the
weekend...a complex low pressure system and cutoff upper level
low develop in the Plains States. PCPN associated with this
system should stay to the west through Sunday.
Fairly consistent day to day temperatures are expected Thursday
through Sunday with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The sky cleared eastern portions this morning as high pressure over
the Northeast States built southward. Mid level clouds will slowly
increase over the area which will lower to MVFR Monday morning as
winds turn to easterly.
OUTLOOK...Lowering ceilings will prevail into early Tuesday as a
warm front approaches and moves through the area Tuesday. Some IFR
will be possible Monday night and early Tuesday. Conditions improve
late Tuesday through Wednesday but there will be a chance for
showers Wednesday as a cold front moves through. The weather
improves once again Thursday and Friday as the cold front moves
south of the area and high pressure takes over from the north.
No headlines in the short term tngt thru Tue. High pressure will
build over the nrn Mid Atlc tngt into Mon aftn, then slides out
to sea Mon night into Tue, as a cold front pushes into/thru the
MS valley. NNE winds 15 kt or less expected tngt, then NE or E
10 kt or less Mon. Winds become SE then S on Tue and increase to
around 10 kt by evening, as the cold front moves into the mtns.
SW winds 10 to 15 kt Tue night into Wed morning, become W then
NW Wed aftn and evening, as the front pushes acrs the waters and
off the coast.