Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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962 FXUS61 KAKQ 221921 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 321 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic States tonight into Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Gusty NNW winds this aftn will diminish around sunset this evening. Otherwise, Canadian sfc high pressure builds into the OH Valley and starts to settle over the Mid Atlantic Region tonight. Strong subsidence aloft will result in clear skies, however breezy north winds persisting through the overnight hours will prevent temperatures from reaching their full potential. Based on upstream observations this morning, have trended overnight lows up a few degrees. Still anticipating readings of 22-25F north of Interstate 64 (including MD Lower Eastern Shore), 26-28F inland VA/NE NC, and 29-31 far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Canadian high pressure continues to settle over the Mid Atlantic Region on Thu and then slowly slides offshore Thu night. Slightly cooler with continued dry conditions Thu/Thu night. Highs in the upper 40s to around 50F inland/low-mid 40s immediate coast and MD/VA Eastern Shore. Lows in the upper 20s to 32F inland /low-mid 30s beaches. Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as high pressure shifts well offshore, and a warm front lifts northwest of the area... allowing warm air advection to commence with winds becoming more S-SW. Temperatures are expected to rebound to 60-65F most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and MD/VA Eastern Shore) due to breezy southwest winds gusting to around 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph MD/VA Eastern Shore. Overall conditions will be dry as mid-upper level ridging and decent subsidence aloft dominates (i.e. best shower chances are well north along the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds should stream across the region (especially north) in relatively flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50F. Meanwhile, low pressure exits the Intermountain West into the Central Plains Fri into Fri night. As the low tracks into the wrn Midwest on Sat, a secondary warm front is expected to lift through the area. This will allow for additional warming in continued southwest sfc winds and a noticeable influx of moisture as dewpoints increase to around 50F. Although clouds should clear out across the SE half of the area during the day (as is typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus development and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly sunny wording in the forecast. Taking all of the above into account as well as improved daytime heating with an increasing sun angle, went with a blend of WPC/MOSGuide for highs on Sat and bumped up the Eastern Shore due to the southwest winds present. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland/low- mid 70s beaches).
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the Mid Atlantic/Southeast Coast. Main weather features of note will be a series of mid/upper level troughs...bringing a few periods of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the central/southern Plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses E-NE into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday and into the northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. QPF will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our N-NW, and will therefore maintain 40-60% POP over our western/NW tier for some sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast highs in the upper 50s to 60s Northern Neck and Lower MD Eastern Shore...with upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into early next week. For the middle of next week...attention turns to a pair of shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to track east/northeastward from the CA coast...across the Plains and Mid-South Late Sat to early Monday. This system will continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the CONUS Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream system will drop from the PAC NW toward the northern plains early Monday, eventually reaching the Great Lakes by the middle of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z EC Ensembles remains quicker to dampen these features with the GFS/GEFS a bit stronger/more amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the Northern Neck of VA into MD, with highs well into the 60s to Mid 70s inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern sections.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure now well off the coast with strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient remains strong and N to NW winds avg 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt at all TAF sites. Skies have become mainly clear and this will continue through the 18Z TAF period (VFR conditions). As the high pressure system builds into the region this evening into tonight and settles over the region Thursday, winds will diminish (though will stay somewhat elevated near the coast tonight). Much lighter winds Thu (mainly 10 kt or less). The high settles off the coast Friday into Saturday, allowing winds to shift around to the SSW with VFR conditions to persist. Showers will be possible later Sunday as low pressure approaches from the W.
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&& .MARINE...
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Latest obs reflect strong surge of northerly winds ongoing across the waters this afternoon. Winds averaging north at 25-30 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt over the Bay and coastal waters into the mouth of the James River. Will be allowing Gale headline to expire over the Ches Bay north of Little Creek, stepping back to SCA through tonight. Will maintain a Gale for the Mouth of Chesapeake Bay and the coastal waters through 23Z (7PM EDT) for winds generally 25-30 kt with gusts to around 35-40 kt. LAPS/MSAS showing strong 3-hr pressure rises on the order of 2-4 mb over the waters with decent flow aloft mixing down 30-35 kt wind gusts over the waters this afternoon. Low pressure slides farther off the Coastal Carolinas through tonight as strong ~1040mb Canadian high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Pressure gradient will slacken as the high builds overhead overnight. SCA over the Rivers drop this evening, and over the Bay early Thu morning. Existing Gales over the coastal waters and Mouth of the Bay and the Currituck Sound should be able to be dropped on time early this evening, with a period of SCA needed through the night before dropping below SCA thresholds Thu Morning/early aftn over southern waters. Seas of around 5-8 ft attm (highest southern coastal waters) slowly subside tonight with waves of 4-5 feet. High pressure settles over the waters Thursday morning with winds becoming north to northeast at or below 15 knots. Seas gradually subside from north to south Thursday morning, finally dropping below 5 ft threshold in the southern coastal waters by early Thursday afternoon. High pressure slides offshore Thursday night with flow becoming southwest Friday and lingering through Saturday. Speeds increase to 15-20 knots Friday afternoon as a storm system develops over the Midwest. The next front crosses the waters early next week, with relatively benign marine conditions expected over the weekend in light return flow, courtesy of high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic. seas remain 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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Radar KDOX remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter. Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated (though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday, March 24th.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MAM EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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