Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181920 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 220 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure returns today with dry weather and seasonable temperatures. A warm front lifts north through the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Current analysis places the center of sfc high pressure across eastern VA with last night`s cold front well south to the GA coast. Earlier stratus and fog that affected much of the I-95 corridor on west is now diminishing with just a narrow strip of low clouds from Louisa Co. on SSE to Northampton Co. NC. This will continue to diminish through noon. Some BKN cu are pushing SE to the Bay and eastern shore for a period of partly-mostly cloudy skies into early aftn but overall expect a mostly sunny aftn with seasonable high temperatures that will range from the mid/upper 50s west of Ches Bay (warmest south central VA), to the upper 40s/lower 50s close to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly clear this evening with increasing clouds overnight from SW to NE as models bring next system and a return of moisture back from the SW by Mon morning. Lows mainly 35-40F though readings may actually rise a bit after midnight across the west. Should see some light rain arrive late tonight west of I-95. Have 30-40% PoPs Piedmont to around 20% along the I-95 corridor from 9z-12z Mon. With the sfc high well off the mid-Atlc/New england coast on Mon, overrunning moisture pushes across the local area with mainly cloudy skies and a light E/SE flow. Best forcing remains off to our NW however, so not necessarily looking at a lot of QPF. Will carry 30-50% PoPs most areas for now before 18z, then slight chc PoPs in the afternoon except up to 30-40% far Eastern VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore. Not a true CAD setup, but a lot of clouds and shallow mixing will keep it cool for much of the day, especially across the Piedmont. Late day highs will avg 50-55F W/NW to the low 60s far SE. Increasing SW flow Mon night as upper ridge axis begins to amplify/build off the SE coast. Models indicate some continued light QPF amounts Mon night, but there is little forcing for precipitation so will genly keep PoPs capped at just 20%. Milder with little drop in temperatures due to the SW flow, lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The local area will be firmly in the warm sector on Tue, with strong upper ridge centered over the Gulf Stream off the SE coast. GFS/NAM depict a lot of low level moisture across the area so skies may start off mostly cloudy. Suspect the SW low level flow and 850mb temperatures rising to +10 to +12 C will be sufficient to scour out the low level clouds by late morning and allow for a partly sunny day. Highs expected into the 70s except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Region will overall be dominated by mid/upper level ridging during the extended period. Shortwave trof will temporarily break down the ridge Wednesday night/Thursday, allowing a cold front to drop through the region from the N/NW on Thursday. High pressure will build to the north of the region behind the front cold front, with temps dropping back closer to normal for Friday. Front potentially moves back north of the region by Saturday, allowing for another surge of warmer air to move into the region for Saturday/Saturday night. GFS/ECMWF are in some disagreement with how far the warm front gets, as well as how quickly the next cold front moves into/through the region. ECMWF less bullish in moving warm front north, which causes the Saturday/Sunday period to be more unsettled, and potentially cooler than GFS would suggest. At this point, have used the blended model solution, which sides toward a warmer day 6/7 period. Outside of the model inconsistency in the day 6/7 period, the chances for rain appear most likely on Thursday with cold frontal passage, and possible Friday into friday night, as front tries to lift back northward. Temperature-wise, another warm day on Thursday ahead of the cold front, with high temps in the 60s/low 70s. Cooler Friday with highs in the 50s to around 60, then potentially warmer on Saturday, with most areas in the 60s. If ECMWF is correct, warmer temps will be restricted to the southern half or so of the CWA. Sunday also remains uncertain with regard to temperatures, but they should still be above normal. Overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday and Friday night, then in the 50s Saturday night.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions this aftn/evening under mostly sunny/clear skies. NNW winds a little gusty along the eastern shore through 21Z to 15-20kt, with Ne winds gusting to 15-20kt SE VA/NE NC areas near the coast. Diminishing winds later in the aftn and tonight. Deteriorating conditions beginning from about 09-12Z and persisting through the day as lowering/thickening cigs approach from the SW with a decent chance for rain from 12-18Z at area terminals. KSBY appears to have the lowest chance so kept mention of rain out their TAF, included it for KRIC/KORF/KPHF/KECG. Outlook... Cigs/vsbys may improve a bit Mon aftn as coverage of showers wanes a bit, but still could be some flight restrictions. Low stratus/IFR/LIFR potential increasing Mon night into Tue morning (could also be some fog). Expect VFR/warm SSW flow to prevail Tue after the early am clouds scour out. A cold front approaches from the NW on Wednesday but expect VFR conditions to prevail.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure building across the region from the west will allow winds to drop off through tonight, while veering from NNE to SE then South by midday Monday, as high moves offshore. Warm front will lift north of the region on Monday, accompanied by showers during the morning. South to SSW flow persists into midweek, with waves generally 1-2 feet on the Bay, and 2-3 feet on the ocean. South to SSW wind flow will bring considerably warmer air into the region. With winds remaining below SCA criteria, will need to monitor for marine fog, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday, as dew points increase into the 50s. Cold front drops through the region on Thursday, turning winds to the N/NE, but speeds expected to remain below SCA criteria.
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&& .CLIMATE... Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20 and Wed 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 * RIC: 77 (1930) 75 (1930) * ORF: 77 (1991) 79 (2014) * SBY: 75 (1930) 75 (1943) * ECG: 78 (1991) 77 (2014) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MAM/WRS CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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