Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220546 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 146 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered northwest of the area through the weekend while Tropical Cyclone Jose lingers off the New England Coast. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure, centered over the Central Appalachians from Central WV to Central PA, remains in control across the region tonight. The sky is mainly clear except for some light cirrus from TS Jose that is moving across northern portions of the CWA. So expect dry weather overnight with temperatures very close to last nights readings, although expect readings to be a degree or two higher as the atmosphere continues to warm a degree or two each night. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain centered to the N-NW of the local area through the weekend. Sky conditions will be no worse than partly to mostly sunny. Continued warm and dry with highs generally in the low/mid 80s, except mid/upr 70s at the beaches. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon before weakening thereafter. Meanwhile...a much weakened/remnant circulation (of Jose) slowly circulates SSE of New England. Other than periodic clouds...esp at the coast by/over the weekend-Mon due to light onshore flow...expecting dry/mainly warm. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the coast...m80s inland. Wx conditions Tue-Wed remain dependent on track of Tropical Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to the E would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now...generally going w/ partly cloudy w/ low PoPs (E portions). Monitor forecasts from NHC on Maria through the weekend. Dry/warm wx expected Thu.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will influence the weather pattern with VFR conditions and mostly light wind. Patchy fog may once again develop later this morning across typical fog prone locations. Went ahead and added a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at ECG after 09Z, but confidence remains somewhat low. Any patchy fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Higher clouds work in from the NE during the day on Friday due to Post- Tropical Cyclone Jose. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of patchy morning fog, are anticipated through early next week due to the influence of high pressure over the reason.
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&& .MARINE...
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Tropical Storm Jose located SE of Cape Cod early this afternoon is forecast to slowly back to the WSW through Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located N of the Dominican Republic and is forecast to track to the NNW through Sat and then NNE through Mon/Tue about equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda. Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 3-6ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall below 5 ft at times next couple days. However...the SCA for hazardous seas will continue and will be extended to 22z Sat as the ENE swell continues. Swell arrives from Maria most likely beginning late in the weekend. SCAs for seas will likely be needed through Sun. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps Maria offshore during the early to middle portions of next week. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria through the weekend. A further increase in seas is expected Mon-Wed along with an increasing N wind Tues-Wed.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures continue to fall today, with tidal departures generally averaging less than 1.5 ft above normal tide. This has allowed all of our sites to stay below flood stage during today`s high tide, with the exception of Lewisetta, Bishops Head and Bayford, which may go one more high tide cycle late this afternoon into this evening with minor flooding. As such, will cancel/expire all of the coastal flood advisories with the exception of the central Bay. Water levels should remain elevated all all sites throught the weekend, but given that the swell is not as large as what it has been, they should stay just below flood after tomorrow. Will need to watch for additional flooding next week, especially in the bay, as the swell from Maria moves into the area. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues today and possibly tomorrow as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075-077-078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS/JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ/ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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