Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251100 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 700 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will pass through the region through this morning..becoming stalled just south of the local area tonight through midweek. High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday before moving moving offshore Wednesday. The next cold front passes through the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest weather analysis features surface cold front dropping SSE across the local area this morning. At 11z, the boundary is noted just north of the VA/NC border. Aloft, upper level trough axis has pushed offshore, with a line of showers and TSTMS from earlier this morning now well offshore. Clearing behind these features should overspread the area over the next few hours, with much of the area getting off to a clear/mostly clear start to the day. The front will drop south this morning through midday, eventually becoming stalled just south of the local area by this evening. 1024+ mb sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley will build east/southeast into the area today, bringing a cooler and (eventually) less humid day to the local area. Drier airmass to the NW will eventually overspread the area into this evening. Showers/T-Storm chances will therefore be even lower than the isolated convection of Monday, which should portend to only a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms across far southeastern VA into northeast NC, with most locations even here remaining dry. Expect most convection to remain to the south of the local area, coincident with better lift/instability across the Coastal Carolinas. Overall, partly to mostly cloudy and becoming more comfortable today as drier air mixes down through the day. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms from the mid/upper 80s across the north to near 90 south. Any isolated convection drops off quickly across SE coast early this evening as the lingering frontal bndry slides farther south of the area, as high pres builds over the NE states. Will see some developing stratus/low clouds and possibly a few showers in NE flow along the Lower Eastern Shore, but otherwise mostly clear and comfortable for most of the area. Early morning low temps mainly in the mid 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Continued dry and pleasant on Wednesday with just a slight chance of an aftn SHRA along the MD Eastern Shore as Surface high pressure slides off the NE coast. High temps in the low to mid 80s. Partly cloudy and fair with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances ramp back up for Thursday across the north as a lead shortwave pushes across the Central Appalachians toward the local area Thursday aftn ahead of an approaching cold front. Model handling of this feature is still a bit uncertain, with the ECMWF a bit slower than the remainder of guidance. Given that the 00z ECMWF has trended toward the rest of the guidance envelope, felt better about upping pop for Thursday afternoon. Oriented chance Pop across the west, with lower to silent pop across the E/SE portion of the area. Sfc high pushes offshore, clearing the way for southerly return flow bringing warmer high temps maxing out around 90F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The preference in the long term is to lean toward the ECMWF solution. This favors a slower cold fropa on Friday, followed by dry wx prevailing this weekend into the first of next week as the front dissipates to our south and a broad trough develops over the eastern CONUS. Have solid chc PoPs (40-50%) on Friday with the fropa. Limited chc PoPs (30-40%) to southern areas on Saturday, then dry all areas next Sunday/Monday. Max temps through the long term will generally be in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions at present, with VFR conditions expected to persist through the 12z TAF period. A weak cold front crosses the region through the morning, shifting winds around to the W/NW. A slight chance for isolated convection at ECG by aftn, but have left mention out at this time with areal coverage to be low and most activity expected to remain to the south of area terminals. Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through this period. Chance for some MVFR to IFR ceilings late tonight at SBY, with perhaps a shower or two. A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period, with rain chances returning by Thursday afternoon into Friday. && .MARINE... A cold front located just north of VA/NC border as of 7 AM EDT will continue to push southeast through the rest of the waters this morning. The front is then expected to stall across nrn NC by this aftn before locating south of the area late tonight/Wed morning as high pressure builds over New England and extends down into the Mid Atlantic Region. This will limit aftn/evening thunderstorms to srn waters invof the front and/or seabreeze boundaries for today. Conditions generally dry Wed/Thu with high pressure over the waters. An area of low pressure crosses the Midwest on Thu and across the OH Valley Thu night. This feature will drag a cold front through the Mid Atlantic Region on Fri and increase chances for thunderstorms over the waters Fri aftn/evening. The front is expected to exit the coast by Sat morning with cooler high pressure returning to the area. Overall, winds become north today behind the cold front with speeds aob 15kt. Wind direction then becomes onshore/NE-E aob 15kt tonight through Wed...E-SE around 10 kt or less Wed night into Thu... S-SW generally 10-15kt Thu night/Fri...then N-NNE aob 10kt Fri night/Sat. Today through Sat: Seas average 2-4ft; waves average 1-2ft (up to 3ft at times in the mouth of Ches Bay). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels will approach minor flood thresholds early Tuesday morning around Bishops Head. Therefore...have issued a coastal flood statement. Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain below minor flood thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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