Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250552 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 152 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS AS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. ADJUSTED TMPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE AS READINGS HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO FCSTD MINS. STDY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING TMPS XPCTD THERE THRU THE OVRNIGHT HRS AS THE CLOUDS OVRSPRD THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FM NR 30 LWR MD ERN SHORE TO THE LWR 40S ACROSS NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER INTO WED MORNING UNTIL THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...AND THEN CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DRY OUT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE THE NRN HALF STAYS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. SLY WINDS DEVELOP WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS MOVES EWD AND OUT TO SEA. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT (FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY) SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...DIMINISHING ALONG THE COAST DURING THU MORNING. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S FROM METRO RICHMOND SWD TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF RICHMOND. CONDITIONS DRY BRIEFLY LATE THU MORNING THROUGH AFTN AS THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BETWEEN THE WARM SECTOR AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTN...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES). THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THU EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. INCREASED PRECIP WORDING TO LIKELIES WITH 55-70 PERCENT POP. LOWS THU NIGHT MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST RAINFALL (AND SUBSEQUENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING) OCCURS. WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NW ON FRI AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 55-60 AND COULD END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN SKY COVER IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LO PRES IS SLO TO EXIT CST FRI NGT...DRYING XPCD INTO THE WKND IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES BUILDS ACRS SE CONUS WKND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. COOL FRI NGT/SAT THEN GRADUAL WARMING TREND LT WKND AND EARLY NEXT WK. LO TEMPS FRI NGT IN THE 30S. COLDEST DAY WILL BE SAT WITH HI TEMPS MNLY 45-50F. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE U20S/M30S. HIGHS SUN MNLY L/M50S. LOWS SUN NGT 35-40F. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M50S TO 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOWEST TO DEVELOP AT KSBY...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 21Z WED-00Z THU. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY -RA/-DZ TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SWING THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ENE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW-END SCA WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FT THURSDAY...WITH WAVES 3-4 FT ON THE BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR/TMG SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB/JDM

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