Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141620 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1120 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A pair of low pressure systems will pass to the north of the area through Friday. Weak low pressure develops off the coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday night. High pressure returns Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Increased temps a bit this aftrn based on current temps, amount of sun and downsloping winds. Mstly sunny. Highs 50-55. PVS DSCN: High pressure centers itself over MD tonight with increasing mid/high clouds. Colder once again with lows from the low 20s N-W to the low 30s SE coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure gets squeezed to the NE Friday morning as low pressure and an upper trough pivot through the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak wave of low pressure is expected to develop off the NC OBX around midday Friday, then quickly track NE well off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday night. Things will have to come together just right for phasing between the Great Lakes trough and the coastal low to produce possible -RA/-SN showers over the Eastern Shore/Northern Neck Friday aftn/early eve. Right now am carrying slight chc PoPs (~20%) for these areas as 00Z ECMWF/RGEM and to a lesser degree than 00Z NAM are lending some credence to this scenario. Otherwise, Friday will be dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE coast. Dry and chilly Friday night behind the departing system. Lows in the 20s except lwr 30s SE coast. Highs pressure builds across the SE states Sat / Sat nite, promoting dry wx. Highs in the mid-upr 40s. Lows Sat night in the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Model timing and moisture differences make for a low confidence forecast early next week (due to a split flow). The one factor that does seem to be in agreement is that temps remain warm enuf across the local area for any pcpn to fall as liquid. A warm front is progged to lift north of the area Sunday with svrl srn stream s/w`s progged to lift NE from the deep south thru Tue. Slght chc pops across the piedmont Sun aftrn. Highs in the upr 40s- mid 50s. ECMWF/Canadian have wetter solutions but with timing differences while the GFS is drier and keeps the deep moisture south of the local area until late Tue. Thus, keeping some continuity with the current forecast results in keeping chc pops Sun night into Tue for now. (All liquid pcpn with no higher than 40 pop). Dry Wed. Lows Sun nite in the upr 30s NW to mid 40s SE. Highs Mon/Tue in the 50s. Lows in the mid 30s NW to lwr 40s SE. Highs Wed in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 12Z/14 TAF forecast period. SW winds aob 15 kt this morning become NW this afternoon and NNE tonight. VFR conditions continue into Fri as high pressure dominates. Low pressure off the coast may result in a few SNSHs at SBY Fri eve. High pressure returns over the weekend. && .MARINE... Strong sfc low pressure moving off the NJ coast with pressure falls on the order of 6mb/6hr centered across the northern coastal waters but shifting off to the E. Maintaining the SCA headlines for winds mainly 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt (a few gusts to 35 kt have been observed from time to time at elevated sensors but not enough to warrant Gales). Once the system exits farther offshore this afternoon, high pressure will begin to push ESE and into the local area from the midwest. The high weakens a bit while doing so this aftn and evening and this should allow WNW winds to drop off later today to below SCA thresholds by later aftn. On Friday, the region will be between a front to the south and another northern stream low pressure system. Winds will be generally light with some NE flow gradually turning to the SW and then NW by Friday night. There does look to be a reinforcing shot of colder air late Fri night into early Sat and this could lead to more SCA conditions. High pressure returns on Sunday with the flow turning back to the SW. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A low water advisory has been issued for the lower Bay, James & York Rivers, and portions of the coastal waters for the midday low tide cycle. Waters levels will reach -1.0 to -1.5 ft MLLW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-636-638-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638-656-658. Low Water Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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