Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261043 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 643 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF ~1016 MB HI PRES ACROSS VA AND NC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IS ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC HI BEING IN THE VICINITY WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX DAYTIME TDA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO NR 40% BY THIS AFTN. EXPECT A MSTLY/PRTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK THERMAL/LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, SHUNTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. RESULTANT WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING TO SHARPEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WILL BRING MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ON BREEZY LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW. SSE FLOW WILL PUSH PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 00Z MON/8PM SUN EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH THE DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH PROVIDING A FOCUS AREA FOR ISO TO WIDELY SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL STILL INDICATE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT/INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK, AND WARRANT LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS (20-30%) THIS EVENING. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHOWER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT/EARLY MON WITH WEAK LIFT REMAINING IN PLACE AND SCT CONVECTION ONGOING JUST TO THE W-NW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (CLEARING LATE) AND MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 70. MONDAY... NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON MON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES IN OUR DIRECTION. SFC/INVERTED TROUGH LOCATES OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO SW VA MON AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MODEL THETA SURFACES INDICATE THE BEST MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE REMAINS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS MONDAY A TOUCH LOWER WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND UPTICK IN LLVL MOISTURE, BUT STILL NEAR CLIMO NORMS; GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS A BIT MILDER STILL WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND LLVL MOISTURE...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS FARTHER EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT, AND HAVE THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE POP OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF US-58). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WX IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE OH VALLEY...INITIALLY BRINGING ISOLD TSTM CHANCES THU AFTN...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS THU AFTN/NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SOLID CHC OF PCPN (30-40%) ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. HIGHS WED/THU IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S NEXT FRI/SAT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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OTHER THAN PSBL PATCHY LGT FG (VSBY 1-3SM) INVOF KPHF/KECG THROUGH ABT 13Z/26...LGT SSE WINDS AND MNLY SKC WILL BE INDICATED FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS EXIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... WK SFC HI PRES RMNS NR THE WTRS THROUGH MON. S-SE WINDS WILL GENERALLY RMN AOB 15 KT THROUGH THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT SHOULD CONT INTO WED AS HI PRES RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU THE PERIOD WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB/WRS MARINE...ALB/JDM

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