Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201736 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 136 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south across the area this morning and will stall over the Carolinas this afternoon through tonight. This front will lift back north as a warm front on Sunday. Another cold front is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic region Monday into Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The latest surface analysis indicates a cold front situated along the I-64 corridor from CHO-RIC-ORF and slowly sinking S. An area of showers is tracking SE across S-central VA ahead of the front. Additionally, there is a band of lower clouds in the immediate wake of the front. Otherwise, the remainder of the area is experiencing partly to mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures across the Ern Shore are in the 60s with a NE wind of 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph. Temperatures are generally in the low/mid 70s across the Middle Peninsula and Nrn Neck, with upper 70s to low 80s along and S of the cold front. High temperatures over interior srn VA and northeast NC will rise into the low/mid 80s today, while the MD Ern Shore will have readings remaining the 60s today, and potentially falling into the upper 50s along the Atlantic coast this aftn. For locations in between, highs will avg in the upper 70s to low 80s with readings falling into the low/mid 70s later this aftn. In the case of areas near the Bay and SE VA/NE NC coasts, temperatures will fall into the 60s with a strong onshore NE flow (after 18Z). PoPs will be fairly limited to 20-40% this morning with only weak forcing along the front. The exception will be across interior NC and south central VA where high-res guidance shows redevelopment of late aftn precip as the slower frontal passage will allow for ML Capes to 500-1000 J/kg this aftn and have raised PoPs to 30-50% there after 18Z and added mention of tstms to the forecast. For tonight, a few lingering showers/tstms possibly early this evening over the far SW, then genly dry overnight though could see some patchy drizzle develop with the onshore flow. Lows to avg in the 50s N to lower 60s far S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Aforementioned front lifts north as a warm front Sun, but will go no higher than 20% PoPs attm with weak forcing aloft. Continued below normal temps with highs only 65-70 F N/NW to the lower 70s interior SE. Front slowly lifts back N Sun night, with increasing moisture advecting in from the S after midnight. Have raised PoPs to likely across the W after midnight with chc PoPs over the east. Lows in the 50s NE to the 60s elsewhere. Mon forecast continues to look wet with a cold front crossing the area late in the day, then slowly down and stalling over southeast sections Mon night. Decent jet, upr level shortwave energy and late day timing could result in an active fropa. The severity of any storms will likely depend on how much heating takes place ahead it. Heavy rainers probably more likely given the progged high PWaters. Chc pops in the morning then likely pops in the afternoon. Highs mid 70s W to lwr 80s SE. Front pushes offshore around midnight with some drying behind it. Likely pops east with chc pops west during the evening, then slight chc pops along the coast after 06Z. Lows mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Brief reprieve from the wet weather Tue as weak high pressure builds into the northern portion of the area, but all models have trended weaker with the northern stream push of drier air and with flow aloft remaining WSW through the period, can`t rule out some returning moisture Tue aftn/evening from the S. Will maintain a dry forecast over northern 1/2 of the CWA with highs mid- upr 70s, but will carry 20-305 PoPs across the south by Tue aftn with highs mainly in the mid 70s. PoPs continue to increase Tue night ahead of the next systm. Lows upr 50s N to mid 60s SE. Next in a series of upr level lows tracks NE across the Gt lakes region Wed with the trailing cold progged to cross the region during the afternoon and evening. Chc pops early in the morning with likely PoPS in the afternoon. Highs in mid to upper 70s. Timing of the boundary is more uncertain with latest set of model runs and could see likely PoPs linger through Wed night. Upr level low lifts NE with models showing a series of shortwaves rotating arnd it Thurs through Fri. Timing of pcpn appears to be more diurnal in nature. Thus will keep 20-30 pops each day (highest late afternoon/early evening). Highs both days in the mid-upr 70s. Lows in the 50s except arnd 60 SE. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NE flow behind a cold front has produced some MVFR ceilings across the CWA with RIC/ORF/PHF being affected by ceilings between 1000 amd 2000 feet. Indications are that a lot of these clouds will persist through the afternoon although heating may increase ceilings slightly. Guidance suggests that the moist flow will continue tonight and some cloud bases may be reduced to IFR. NE-E winds will be gusty this afternoon and early evening with gusts to 20-25 kt possible. Some early showers this morning have moved mostly south into NC but there is still a slight chance for scattered shower for the CWA. The front returns N as a warm front Sun/Sunday night bringing the potential for IFR stratus and areas of light rain. A cold front approaches from the W Monday bringing numerous showers and tstms by late morning and aftn. High pressure returns Tuesday, followed by another chc of showers/tstms Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the W.
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&& .MARINE... Still waiting on the cold front to sag its way south into the local area early this morning. The latest obs suggest this should begin to take place around 5am across the northernmost waters. After that, the front will make it way south over the remainder of the waters through late morning with winds become NE behind the front. Expecting a decent enough surge for winds to reach 15-25 kt across all waters today, especially during the 10am-10pm time frame. Solid SCA conditions in speed/duration not expected for the York, Rappahannock and upper James Rivers so have left them out of any SCAs. Seas build to 4-5 ft on avg with waves in the Bay reaching 3-4 ft. Winds diminish by late this evening as high pressure builds a little farther south and easterly winds diminish to 10-15 kt. Seas will remain elevated into tonight. Winds stay E 10-15 kt Sun morning then become SE in the afternoon. Latest guidance has hitched on to the possibility of seas remaining elevated thru Sunday, so have extended SCAs for the ocean until 6 pm for now. Winds become S then SW on Monday ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west. The next front crosses the area late Mon. Not much change in airmass behind this front so expect winds to remain below SCA levels early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MPR AVIATION...LKB/JEF MARINE...JDM

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