Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300726 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 326 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina coast this morning, and will slowly track northeast along the coastal Carolina while weakening further through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Richmond has reached 9.36" of rainfall for the month of May as of Midnight EDT, setting a new record for the month. See the climate section below for more details. The latest analysis still indicates TD Bonnie located just inland of Charleston SC. Please continue to refer to discussions/forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center for the track on TD Bonnie. Have followed closely to the last few runs of HRRR, which seems to have a good handle w/ongoing pcpn. Noting area of showers coincident with cooling cloud tops redeveloping over e NC, along coastal trough axis, which emanates from the remnant low along the SC coast. CAMs continue to show that these showers will continue to lift NNW along the coast this morning, eventually expanding in areal coverage after 12z this morning, enhanced by upper divergence provided by RRQ of upper jet. Will go with likely to categorical POPS over coastal sections this morning. Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely this morning along the coast and just inland (mainly e of i-95). Meanwhile, pops taper back to high end chc 40-50 pop out west in the piedmont in expectation of some sct showers, owing to weak subsidence/low level drying advecting in from the west. QPF amounts through this evening to avg 1-2" along the coast, w/lesser amounts farther inland. Highs today once again variable and clouds/pcpn dependent, but should be held in the mid-upper 70s along the coast/just inland, reaching the lower 80s well inland with lesser pcpn expected. Additional showers expected tonight, with TD Bonnie`s remnants lifting along the Carolina coast tonight. Areal coverage of showers once again diminishes late, becoming focused along the coastal trough over the eastern third of the area. Once again mild/humid with lows in the 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) will continue to very slowly lift NE along the NC coast Tue/Wed. Continued humid, though dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW persist Mon night-Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model consensus and NHC forecast centers Tropical Depression Bonnie (or the remnant low) just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. An upstream trough and associated cold front approaches from the west. Will keep mention of chance POPs along the coast, as well the Piedmont as moisture increases from the west. Expect subsidence over central VA and hopes for dry conditions, but will keep slight chance POPs. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night as the approaching trough finally kicks off the coast in advance of the approaching upstream trough. Will keep mention of slight chance POPs, but overall dry conditions expected. The front drops into the forecast area Friday with increasing chances for showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Latest guidance now in good agreement with cutting off mid level energy over the Southern Plains, with the largest height falls over New England. Sensible weather impacts will be a quicker departure of the front off the coast Friday night into Saturday than previously forecast. Will keep mention of chance POPs Saturday, will drying conditions into Saturday night. Only a slight chance POP across the southeast forecast area for Sunday as the front stalls over the Carolinas in westerly flow aloft. Sky generally partly cloudy Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 80`s Thursday and Friday cool only a few degrees into the upper 70`s to low 80`s Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the 60`s. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Tropical Depression Bonnie meanders along the Carolina coasts through Tue night and then slowly tracks ne twd the Mid Atlantic on Wed...finally locating just off the coast Wed night. The remnants of Bonnie are expected to continue tracking ne Thu... getting pushed out to sea by an approaching cold front, which should cross the region on Fri. The bulk of ongoing shower activity is either well north of the area or streaming nwd along the NE NC/far SE VA coast as of 30/0600Z. Pockets of LIFR/IFR cigs and BR with visibilities averaging 3-5ft will fluctuate across Central VA through at least 30/1200Z. Shower activity is expected to fill back in after 30/1400Z and cigs/visibilities rebound into either solid IFR or MVFR flight conditions in the rain. In addition, thunderstorms will be possible this aftn/evening with brief periods of locally moderate to heavy rainfall and further reductions to cigs and visibilities. Meanwhile, a low pressure system tracking ewd above the Great Lakes in Canada is expected to drag a cold front through the region late tonight and push this batch of rainfall offshore by Tue morning. However, wraparound moisture from TD Bonnie will continue to plague TAF sites with periods of rain, aftn/evening thunderstorms, and areas of fog/low stratus through Wed night. A cold front approaches the region on Thu...bringing a brief period of dry conditions to the region. This front is expected to cross the area on Fri.
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&& .MARINE...
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Tropical Depression Bonnie meanders along the Carolina coasts today through Tue night and then slowly tracks ne twd the Mid Atlantic on Wed...finally locating just off the coast Wed night. The remnants of Bonnie are expected to continue tracking ne Thu...getting pushed out to sea by an approaching cold front, which should cross the region on Fri. Ongoing shower activity will remain focused over the waters today/tonight with thunderstorms possible this aftn/evening. SE winds today...becoming more ne-e late tonight through Thu. Speeds generally aob 15kt. Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell, but may build to 4-5ft Wed into Thu evening as the remnants of TD Bonnie track just off the Mid Atlantic coast during this timeframe. Waves 1-2ft with up to 3ft possible at times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the onshore swell. A cold front approaches the region on Thu...bringing a brief period of dry conditions and slightly more breezy winds to the waters. This front is expected to cross the waters late Fri night into Sat.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC. Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow, which could push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08"). Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond... 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT) 2. 9.13" 1889 3. 8.98" 1873 4. 8.87" 1972 5. 8.67" 1886 6. 8.59" 2003
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MPR/WRS MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...

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