Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 212049 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 349 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast tonight. A backdoor cold front drops south across the area Thursday, then lifts back north as a warm front Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Latest MSAS has the sfc high off the sern coast with the cold front approaching the mts. Sct shwrs ahead of this boundary remain west of the local area late this aftrn. Data shows a dry and warm evening ahead as the region remains under the influence of the offshore high. Shwrs asstd with the backdoor cold front hold off until after 04Z with the actual boundary progged to be across AKQ`s northern most zones by 12Z Thurs. Will keep low chc pops across the nrn half of the fa after midnite, dry across the south. Airmass remains mixed tonight so will limit any marine fog to the coastal waters for now. Lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s ern shore areas, mid 50s-lwr 60s west of the bay.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Challenging forecast for Thurs as the position of the boundary will determine the temp, pcpn type and chcs. Data indicates the boundary slowly sags south into central Va by 18Z then stalls across srn VA by 00Z Fri. Moisture fields show best support for measurable pcpn will be north of the bndry where pcpn type will likely change from shwrs to a stratiformed light rain/drizzle CAD scenario. Look for temps to remain stdy or slowly fall thru the day north of it while it remains unseasonably warm with highs in the 70s south. Could see a 30 degree range in temps across the local area. Cooler Thurs night with light rain/drizzle/fog across the north due to a moist onshore flow. Lows 40-45 north, 45-50 south. Kept chc showers going Fri as front slips back north as a warm front. Highs in the lwr 50s north to lwr 60s south. Highs low-mid 50s north, upr 60s-lwr 70s south. Boundary lifts north leaving the local area in the warm sector Fri night along with chcs for more fog. Lows mid 40s ern shore to mid- upr 50s south. Warm again Sat with chc for shwrs. Highs 60-65 ern shore to the mid-upr 70s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Sunday continues to look like a mild yet wet day with the surface cyclone staying over the Great Lakes with the surface cold front moving into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will be north of I-64 where the better forcing and moisture will be located. However, the front will be slow to move through the area given that it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week so it is possible that a lingering shower may persist across NC on Monday, it will most likely be dry Monday-Tuesday. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday, allowing return S-SW flow to develop. An approaching front Wed afternoon may allow for showers later in the afternoon into Wed night, but timing is still uncertain and have opted to keep out of the forecast. Sunday will be another warm day with S-SW flow ahead of the strong warm front. However, clouds and showers will likely keep temps in the upper 60s/lower 70s despite the +12C 850mb temps. Temps closer to normal Monday-Wednesday, but mostly sunny skies expected as the high pressure builds overhead.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR stratus quickly scouring out this aftrn with VFR conditions expected by sunset. More stratus develops tonight ahead of the apprchg cold front from the north. MVFR/IFR CIGS develop at RIC/SBY by 12Z Thu with VCSH. Patchy fog also psbl but thnk more low stratus than fog. The backdoor front slowly sags south across the local area Thu shifting winds to the NNE by 18Z at SBY with the VRBL winds at RIC with the frnt nearby. SSW winds continue at sern taf sites as the front will likely not get that far south until after this period. Outlook: Expecting a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog in moist onshore flow Thu aftrn/Fri behind this feature. Front slips back north of the area on later Friday into Saturday. A second, stronger cold front will drop across the area Sunday night, with another period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during this period. && .MARINE...
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South flow late this afternoon into tonight will continue to be gusty ahead of the upcoming cold front. May see some gusts to 20kt at times tonight in the Bay. The cold front will slowly sag southward across the area on Thursday, but will stall out over the area over the southern waters. Will see north winds increase to 15- 20kt across the northern waters and 15kt in the Chesapeake Bay late Thursday into Thursday night until the front starts moving back north by Friday. May briefly see SCA conditions across the far northern waters late Thu into Thursday evening, but it is too marginal for issuance right now. Southerly winds will increase once again Friday into Friday Night. A cold front will move through the waters Sunday with increasing north flow Sunday night. High pressure overhead by Monday evening with winds less than 10 kt.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record highs recorded at RIC/SBY and ECG today. Record highs will likely be challenged today (Wed) 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Wed 2/21 RIC: 75 (1930) ORF: 79 (2014) SBY: 75 (1943) ECG: 77 (2014) * Record high mins for 2/21. RIC: 54 (1953) ORF: 58 (1953) SBY: 51 (1953) ECG: 61 (1939)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...AJB/MRD AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...

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