Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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910 FXUS61 KAKQ 271439 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1039 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sink south through the region late this afternoon into tonight. The front will drop into the Carolinas Sunday, and then return north as a warm front Sunday night. Another cold front approaches from the northwest on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current GOES wv imagery reveals a shortwave trough Tand associated surface low pressure tracking across TN and KY this morning. Mostly clear locally this morning with temperatures warning rapidly with mid 70s to near 80 by 10 am. May need to bump up afternoon highs a degree or two. The trough will dig ESE today, with the surface low following suit and tracking across central/SE VA late this aftn through the evening. Conditions remain dry through midday and even into later afternoon at the coast, before the chc for showers/tstms increases during the aftn into the evening. Storm develop acorss central VA later this afternoon and then race east and southwast towards the coast. 0-1km MLCAPE values are progged to reach 1000-1500 J/kg, with a decent mid/upper level speed max resulting in 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kt. Downdraft potential is rather high along with hail and lightning potential given thermal profiles. Severe thunderstorms are possible this aftn and evening with areas along and S of the I-64 corridor in a slight risk area. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail. Mostly sunny this morning, then becoming partly sunny, and mostly cloudy late. Forecast highs range from upper 70s to near 80 over the Ern Shore to the low/mid 80s inland W of the Bay. The chc for showers/tstms diminishes NW-SE overnight tonight with lows generally in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The initial shortwave trough pushes offshore Sunday morning, with shortwave ridging building over the Mid-Atlantic. The surface cold front drops into the Carolinas Sunday with N/NE flow developing across the region in the wake of the mid-level trough and surface cold front. Variably cloudy with some patchy morning stratus or fog possible. Cooler over the Ern Shore with highs in the low/mid 70s and locally upper 60s at the immediate coast. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s from the wrn shore of the Bay through coastal SE VA/NC NC, with low/mid 80s for central/srn VA and interior NE NC. The surface boundary returns newd into the region late Sunday aftn into the evening and early overnight hours. This will combine with another shortwave trough resulting in an increasing possibility of showers/tstms during the evening and overnight hours. 0-6km bulk shear rapidly increases to 35-45kt after 00z resulting in a chc of a few strong to marginally severe tstms mainly during the evening. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Monday morning, and then continue ewd Monday aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected Memorial Day aftn/evening. There is some model disagreement with respect to coverage, so PoPs will remain 30-50%. Increasing WSW flow aloft ahead of a trough digging across the Great Lakes will yield 0- 6km bulk shear values of 40-50kt. This will combine with 1000-2000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE resulting in the potential for severe thunderstorms. Partly sunny then mostly cloudy on Memorial Day with highs ranging through the 80s, with the potential for near 90 SE, and 70s along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A frontal boundary will push south of the area Tue morning, with weak high pressure providing mainly dry wx for Tue aftn thru Wed. More unsettled wx with chcs for showers or tstms then expected Wed night thru Fri, as a frontal boundary will linger over the region or acrs the Carolinas. Highs will mainly range fm the upper 70s to mid 80s thru the period, with lows ranging fm the upper 50s to the upper 60s. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions prevail this morning and into early this aftn. Scattered showers and tstms return to the region later this aftn, becoming most probable from about 18-20Z through 00-03Z/Sun. There is a potential for some strong storms with strong wind gusts being the main concern (and brief heavy rain/reduced vsby). Otherwise, the wind will shift to the N/NE later tonight and become E/SE during the day Sunday. Some lower cigs/MVFR-IFR conditions are possible Sun morning. A chc for showers/tstms returns Sunday evening/night and again Monday aftn/evening. Minimal chcs for aftn/evening showers/tstms persist into Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis places a weak ridge of high pressure over the water with an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Winds are generally light and variable, with speeds at or below 10 knots. Waves ~1 foot and seas 1-2 feet. The ridge axis slides offshore this morning as low pressure approaches from the northwest. An associated cold front reaches the waters this afternoon. Flow becomes south to southeast around 10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Low pressure pushes across the waters tonight as the front drops over North Carolina. Flow becomes northerly at 10-15 knots. Low pressure stalls offshore Sunday as high pressure nudges in from the northeast. Flow becomes onshore through Sunday evening at 10-15 knots. The next area of low pressure lifts over the eastern Great Lakes region Sunday night and into eastern Canada on Memorial Day. A trailing cold front reaches the waters late Monday into Monday night, stalling along the coast. The front washes out as high pressure slowly builds in from the west through Wednesday. Winds generally at or below 15 knots. High pressure prevails through the end of the work week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...SAM

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