Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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879 FXUS61 KAKQ 012344 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 644 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly builds into the Mid Atlantic tonight through Sunday. Low pressure passes south of the region Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... The current surface analysis as of 19z indicates 991mb low pressure over srn QB associated with a vertically stacked system, and 992mb low pressure over the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile, 1021mb high pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in westerly flow locally at the surface, with zonal flow aloft. Temperatures are cooler behind the cold front that moved offshore earlier this morning, but still above seasonal averages with downslope flow and a lack of CAA, with aftn values averaging from 60-65F, with dewpoints in the low/mid 30s. High pressure will gradually build across the Southeast Conus tonight. Mostly clear and dry tonight with lows in the mid/upper 30s (locally low 40s for SE coastal locations). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry conditions will continue to prevail Friday into Saturday as wnw flow dominates across the region. A trough will pass north of the area Friday night and will allow CAA to improve. Mainly clear conditions are expected with high pressure gradually building in from the wnw. Forecast highs Friday are in the mid/upper 50s, which are near seasonal averages. Lows drop into the low/mid 30s Friday night, with highs trending below normal Saturday with forecast values in the upper 40s to low 50s. High pressure becomes centered over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday. A split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn stream system tracking into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and a nrn stream wave diving into the Great Lakes. This will result in dry conditions Saturday night, with a mostly clear sky Saturday evening, followed by increasing clouds later Saturday night, and then mostly cloudy by Sunday. Forecast lows Saturday night range from the upper 20s to low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s for se coastal locations, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s to around 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic States will loosen its grip Sunday night. Mid level moisture will increase Sunday night and early Monday over the area. Support for precipitation is rather disorganized bur for now kept 30 percent POPs for light rain late Sunday night. Any precipitation should move quickly off to the southeast Monday morning. An upper level trough will move out of the southern Great Plains and form a surface low over the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday night. This low will northeast through the Tennessee Valley and emerge east of the mountains over Maryland or southern Pennsylvania. Chances for rain begin to develop from the southwest Monday night. There will be a good chance for rain across the area Tuesday with this system. A consensus of the models place a likelihood for rain on Tuesday. Models have had some difficulty with the timing of this system and five days out chose to go no higher than 50 percent POPs for now. A strong cold front moves through the area Thursday from the west and this will bring another chance for rain. High temperatures will start a bit below normal Monday and warm up slowly the rest of the week. Highs Monday 50 to 55 will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s by Thursday. Lows are forecast to range through the 30s Tuesday morning and in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thursday and Friday mornings. Following the cold front Thursday... somewhat colder temperatures are likely. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure settles across the Southeast States through the weekend with dry weather and VFR conditions anticipated. Winds generally w-nw aob 10kt...except along the immediate Ches Bay and Atlantic coasts (including the MD/VA Eastern Shore) where gusts around 20-25kt are expected Fri aftn through early Sat evening. A shortwave pushes across the Southeast Sun night into Monday... increasing/thickening cloud cover and possibly bringing rain to the area from sw to ne. This timing may be delayed as this feature has a lot of dry, cool air to overcome/saturate. Meanwhile...a complex low pressure system pivots out of the Texarkana Region Monday night and tracks across the TN Valley on Tuesday. This feature will bring a better chance of rain and likely MVFR conditions to all TAF sites during this timeframe.
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&& .MARINE...
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Low pressure over southeast Canada and high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley were keeping winds from the west and northwest but under SCA criteria. A secondary surge will increase winds from the northwest late Friday night and Saturday and SCA will likely be needed at that time...especially over inland waters. Winds diminish Monday and then turn to an easterly component Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system that will move northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley. Seas may build to around 5 feet in the outer portion of the coastal waters around mid week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...BMD MARINE...LSA

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