Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220254 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1054 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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10 PM UPDATE...UPDATED SEVERAL TAFS FOR RECENT TRENDS AND TO INCLUDE IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE LOWERING WITH MVFR DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND NAM MOS IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE. OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT... WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ/LSA

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