Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190911 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 511 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered west of the region through mid week. Hurricane Jose will continue to track north across the Virginia Capes today, then track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... At 5 AM, Hurricane Jose is located 240 miles ENE HAT and moving north at 9 mph. Meanwhile, high pressure was centered over the NC mountains. Jose will continue to move north across the Vacapes today making its closest approach to the coast this morning. Latest suite of model data agree that Jose`s main pcpn shield stays offshore with only sct shwrs rotating west/onshore. However, RH fields show a rather sharp gradient with most guidance not showing much measurable pcpn making it west of the Ches Bay. Given this trend, elected to keep chc to low end likely pops along the immediate coast this morning, quickly dropping off to slght chc pops along the zones bordering the Ches Bay. Chc pops along the coast this aftrn. High pressure over the mts results in enough dry air for skies to average partly sunny across the Piedmont. Breezy to windy conditions along the coast with north winds 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. OXB and Outer Banks Currituck will likely have the highest winds with gusts up to 45 mph where a wind advisory continues. Highs in the mid-upr 70s along the coast, low-mid 80s west of the Ches Bay. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Jose continues to pull NE away from the region tonight. Tsctns and RH fields show drier air quickly spreading east and ending any pcpn. Exception will be across the lwr MD eastern shore where slght chc pops will be maintained during the evening. Otw, mstly clr to pt cldy and mild. Winds become NW and diminish as gradient relaxes. Lows in the mid-upr 60s except near 70 sern beach areas. High pressure over the region along with subsidence in the wake of departing Jose results in a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day Wed. Latest data suggests enough moisture for sct convection to develop over the mts after 18Z, but dissipating as it tries to move east. H85 temps btwn 15-16C along with ample sunshine results in highs reaching the mid-upr 80s west of the bay, lwr 80s along the coast. Maybe even a rogue 90 at one of those AWOS sites across the piedmont given how dry the ground is. Mstly clr and warm Wed night. 65-70. Mstly sunny and warm Thurs as the high dominates. Highs upr 70s-lwr 80s along the coast, mid 80s west of the bay. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Hi pres sfc-aloft builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS from Thu night through the weekend as remnant lo pres (Jose) slowly re-circulates ESE of New England. Other than possible periods of SC off the ocean (by the weekend) - esp at the coast...expecting dry/near-slightly above seasonable conditions. Extended models continue to have difficulty wrt the tropical activity in the extended periods. Appears models are having trouble resolving what to do with Jose past seven days out which would affect Maria`s track. Latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian now keep both Jose and Maria offshore early next week. GFS/ECMWF actually have a Maria track similar to what Jose had (between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras) while the Canadian keeps Maria even farther east. Monitor forecasts from NHC on Maria through the weekend. Highs Fri-Sun in the l-m80s...Mon in the m70s-l80s. Lows in the l-m60s inland to the u60-around 70F at the coast. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Hurricane Jose is moving north at 9 mph along the Mid Atlantic coast this morning. BKN-OVC MVFR SC continues to spread inland along with sct shwrs approaching the coast. Latest data shows the main pcpn bands associated with Jose stay offshore while the sct shwrs slowly drift west as Jose makes it closest approach to the coast later this morning. Data also showing any sgnfcnt pcpn not making in much farther west than the Ches Bay except for some patchy drizzle this morning. Thus, elected to only go with a VCSH at SBY/ORF/ECG through about 18Z, somewhat later at SBY. Pt cldy at RIC with some patchy fog psbl towards sunrise. Gusty winds btwn N-NE btwn 15-30 mph today along the coast. Decreasing clouds west to east after 00Z as Jose slowly pulls NE and away from the area. Last region to clr will be at SBY. Outlook: Jose continues to drift NE to a position off the srn New England coast Wed and Thu. High pres builds in behind the systm. && .MARINE... Tropical storm warnings continue as planned for all coastal waters as winds/seas continue to ramp up this morning with Hurricane Jose pushing northward well offshore. The warning is for 25-35 kt sustained winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas today up to 8-11 ft nearshore and 12-14 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay will also increase as Jose pushes northward, up to 5-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Will also continue the gale warnings for the mouth of the Bay and the Sound where frequent gusts to 35 kt are expected until midday, likely to then be replaced by a SCA. Keeping a SCA for the rest of the Bay with the mention of occasional gusts up to 35 kt in the MWW. SCA headlines over the rivers continue as well. Marine conditions then improve tonight into Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE and weak high pressure builds in from the NW. Sub-SCA conditions into Thu, before seas start to once again ramp up late this week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Will continue coastal flood advisories for all zones adjacent to the ocean and for much of the area along Ches Bay and the James/York/Rappahannock Rivers. Did this for the next 2 high tide cycles into early Wednesday morning, but may need to be extended into the following high tide cycle daytime Wednesday. While some locally moderate tidal flooding is possible later today, the chance looks fairly low at most sites given the track of Jose well offshore and with winds shifting to an offshore direction fairly rapidly. High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 12-14 sec periods and the large nearshore waves. The risk is expected to remain high into the middle of the week. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075-077- 078-084>086-089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ095>097- 523>525. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ633-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB/MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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