Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301754 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast through the Monday. A frontal boundary along the eastern shore will lift back north as a warm front today. A cold front pushes across the region Monday night with high pressure returning Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Note that all 4 climate sites broke record high min temps for 4/29. See cli section below or RER`s. The current surface analysis shows a backdoor cold front extending form nrn VA across the Lower MD Ern Shore in vicinity of CGE-SBY-OXB, with a Bermuda high of the Southeast coast. Morning stratus is quickly lifting and scattering with temperatures mainly in the mid 70s to around 80 and dewpoints in the upper 60s. Partly to mostly sunny and hot as the early season heat wave continues today. 850mb temps between 14-16C results in readings generally between 85-90 west of the bay. The boundary will gradually retreat N today and this should allow for highs in the low/mid 80s over the Ern Shore, but remaining in the 70s for the beaches due to sea-breeze influences. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly clr tonight except becoming pt cldy after midnight across the piedmont. Dry as any pcpn stays well west of the fa thru 12Z. Lows 65-70 except 60-65 eastern shore. Models continue to slow the eastward movement of the approaching cold front from the west Monday. Data suggests a dry morning with pops increasing mainly along and west of the I95 corridor in the afternoon. Dry along the coast thru 00Z Tue. Temps remain well above normal with highs 80-85 except remaining in the 70s at the beaches. The cold front crosses the region Monday night and pushes offshore by 12z Tuesday. Likely pops taper off to chc from NW-SE from 06-12z as drier air arrives from the NW. Cooler with lows from the upr 50s NW to mid 60s SE. SPC has included the western most AKQ zones in a MRGNL risk late Monday into Monday nite. Thinking is for isltd severe hail/damaging winds from storms crossing the mts during the evening hrs. Also expect some lclly hvy downpours psbl given the juicy airmass as PW`s apprch 1.5 inches. Low pressure tracks into ern Canada with high pressure building into the area Tues and Wed. A secondary (dry) trof moves north of the area by 12Z Wed. Look for dry and cooler conditions. Highs Tues 75-80, cooler at the beaches. Lows Tue night in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s. Highs Wed in the mid-upr 70s except upr 60s-lwr 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A complex system progged toward the end of the week. Low pressure develops over the deep south Wed then slowly lifts NE along the Applach mts Thurs and Fri. Latest models show the system getting cut off from the main flow and lingering across the region thru Sat. Meanwhile, this system will be able to tap a good amount of GOM / Atlantic moisture. The associated warm front lifts north across the area Thurs with chc pops all areas. Enough moisture for likely pops Thurs nite and Fri with lingering pops Fri nite into Sat. Most of the pcpn will be convective in nature resulting in the possibility of another extended period of rainfall. Stay tuned. Highs both Thu/Fri in the upr 60s NW to low-mid 70s SE. Lows Thu night mid-upr 50s NW to lwr 60s SE. Highs Sat mid 60s to lwr 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure is anchored off the Southeast Coast as of 18z, with a quasi-stationary boundary immediately N of SBY. A SW wind is averaging 8-12kt this aftn, with gusts up to 20kt possible at RIC, and sct aftn cu with bases of 3.5-5kft. The aforementioned boundary will move N as a warm front tonight as a cold front pushes through the Ohio Valley. The sky will be mainly clear through around 08z aside from some cirrus. The wind will generally be S aob 10kt through roughly 06z, before becoming SW and gradually increasing thereafter as the pressure gradient tightens. MVFR stratus is possible primarily between 08-14z, but vsby restrictions are not expected given a persistent wind overnight. Stratus should scatter and lift after 14z with a SW wind increasing to ~15kt with gusts to ~25kt. The cold front approaches from the W late in the day and passes across the region overnight. This will bring the potential for showers/tstms from late aftn/early evening for RIC and then shifting to the coast during the evening through the early overnight hours. Any showers/tstms have the potential to produce sub-VFR conditions along with locally strong wind gusts. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday and slides offshore Thursday as low pressure approaches from the W. This low pressure system potentially impacts the region Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .MARINE... Broad Bermuda high pres allows for 10-15 kt S/SW flow today, with 1- 2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. Similar conditions into tonight with seas building to 4 ft. Next cold front approaches the area Mon, and with a tight pres gradient ahead of the front, winds increase to 15-25 kt over all wtrs during the day. Raised headlines over all wtrs, with a gale watch over northern cstl wtrs and a SCA elsewhere. Gale watch is for 50 percent confidence in a few hrs of gale gusts, with other areas expected to gust up to 25- 30 kt. Seas build to 6-9 kt over cstl wtrs with 3-4 ft waves over the Bay. These conditions will last into Mon night until the cold front crosses the wtrs. Winds/waves/seas decrease into Tue as CAA is weak behind the front, but seas aoa 5 ft may continue through late Tue. Sub-sca conditions everywhere by Wed. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood advisory continues in Mecklenburg county, with VDOT continuing to report numerous roads closed in the Kerr Dam area, creating ongoing navigation concerns. && .CLIMATE... All 4 climate sites broke record high minimum temps for 4/28...4/29 and for the month of April. See PNSAKQ for details. Record high temps for today 4/30: RIC...93 in 1974 ORF...93 in 1888 SBY...86 in 1974 ECG...90 in 1974 Record high minimums for today 4/30: RIC...63 in 2014 ORF...67 in 1994 SBY...63 in 1983 ECG...65 in 2014 Richmond and Norfolk will end of the month as the warmest April on record. Below are the average temperatures through the 29th and the previous records. The new records will likely be more than one degree of the previous records. April 2017 Avg temp Record Location to date Avg temp Year -------- ---- ---- ---- Richmond 63.7 63.1 1994 Norfolk 66.0 65.3 1994 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635-636-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-637. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR/WRS SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMD/MPR AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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