Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300241 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1041 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will settle into the region from the north tonight...then dissipate on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak tropical depression will linger off the Carolina coast through Wednesday morning, before pushing farther out to sea. A cold front will cross the area Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold front over the northern Mid Atlantic region, with still tropical depression 8 southeast 125 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. Scattered mid level clouds and a wind shift will accompany the front as it nudges into the northern local area tonight. Otherwise, quiet conditions expected and no major changes made to ongoing forecast. Previous Discussion... Skies avg mostly clear this evening except partly/variably cloudy over the SE. Added some patchy fog for interior ne NC overnight in areas that received rain, closer to the immediate coast think there will be too much mixing for any fog (could also see some patchy fog along/west of i-95 but doubt it will be widespread so did not put into the gridded forecast at this time. Lows avg 70-75 along the coast and 65-70 F inland. Still not much change to the pattern on Tue, as TD #8 is progged to strengthen slightly (to become TS Hermine) while drifting W closer to the coast. Still too weak and with local area remaining in western side of storm track, little to no impact other than local beach/rip currents are expected. Will carry just 20-30% POPS SE, mainly dry elsewhere. Highs around 90 F inland to mid 80s near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tropical Storm Hermine is progged to lift off the NC Outer Banks Wed...posing little threat to the local area. Very little change to conditions expected Wed, will have a little greater chance that some outer rain bands clip the NC coast (will have a 40% POP there, 20% or less elsewhere). Highs will average in the u80s- l90s Wed (m80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s- l70s. A stronger cold front progged to push through the area Thu, will have ~40% POPS most areas by late Thu am through Thu aftn. highs near 90 F S to mid 80s N. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc front exits the coast late Thu night as an upper level trough swings through the region late Thu night into Fri. The upper level trough could possibly stall overhead as the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine move up the the Southeast and Carolina coasts and sfc high pressure builds over the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS through the weekend. There remains a certain level of uncertainty regarding the exact track of tropical moisture moving up the coast (i.e. how far inland or offshore will it be), however the general consensus is for the Mid Atlantic Region to receive a very weak glancing blow from this system. The end result will be a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms across far SE VA and NE NC for Fri/Sat (both days due to timing/track uncertainty). The ECMWF model solution takes the tropical moisture out to sea for Sun while the GFS solution hooks the moisture slightly westward... hugging the Mid Atlantic/New England coastline. Tried to split the difference and have carried a slight chance for showers/storms along the coast on Mon. High temps will start out slightly below normal Fri/Sat with readings in the lower 80s (upper 70s beaches due to persistent onshore winds). Temps gradually moderate twd more seasonal normal values by Sun/Mon. Low temps running close to normal Thu night as precip/front exit the coast. Overnight temps then experience a slight dip with lows in the lower 60s Fri-Sat nights. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions prevail across the region early this evening. Only scattered to broken high clouds persist over the southern local area out ahead of Tropical Depression 8. Surface winds generally less than 10 knots. A weak frontal boundary drops into the area tonight. Expect some patchy fog overnight, mainly over the Piedmont and far south, but not enough to include in TAF sites. Model soundings suggest less potential for low clouds into the area overnight than what has occurred over the past 2 days. Mainly dry weather is expected to continue through Wed other than isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG). A somewhat higher chance for showers/tstms arrives Thu aftn/early evening as a cold front pushes through the area. Dry/VFR Fri-Sat. && .MARINE... SCA flags extended for srn coastal waters through 700 PM Wed. Also added the nrn coastal waters beginning Tue morning through 700 PM Wed. Persistent onshore/NE-E winds (15-20kt south/10-15kt north) and long period swell occurring from TS Gaston and TD Eight will cause nearshore seas to build to 5-6ft south/4-5ft north Tue morning through early Wed evening. Wind speeds in Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and Ern VA rivers should stay aob 15kt during this timeframe. However, waves should build to 4ft in the mouth of the Bay by early Tue aftn through Wed aftn due to the persistent NE-E and long period swell moving into the Bay from the ocean. Have issued SCA for 4ft waves in the Bay during the aforementioned timeframe. As TD Eight tracks NE and away from the Mid Atlantic coast on Wed, wind speeds will really start to drop off below 10kt by Wed aftn and SCA conditions (winds/waves/seas) will drop below criteria. Wed evening through Thu night, winds remain sub-sca with wind directions s Wed night, w-nw Thu morning, and n Thu night. Seas average 2-3ft/1-2ft waves Bay. A frontal boundary is expected to exit the coast by Fri morning and speeds are expected to increase to 15-20kt early Fri morning...primarily over the coastal waters but the Bay may touch these speeds as well (a solid 15kt is anticipated currently). Seas may build up to 4-5ft south of the VA/NC border Fri night. Otherwise, seas should average 3-ft Fri/Fri night...waves 2-3ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Have upgraded to high risk for rip currents Virginia Beach southward due to long period swell, 4-5 ft nearshore waves, and favorable swell direction. Moderate risk for rip currents exist for the northern beaches. Low tide Tuesday occurs between 12:30-1:30pm.
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&& .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LKB/SAM MARINE...BMD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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