Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291729 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 129 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast today as a weak frontal boundary lingers to the north of the area. This boundary slides south this weekend and washes out over the area, before the next cold front drops into the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Update as of 1030 AM EDT... Low clouds still being stubborn to break up late this morning but clouds bases appear to be lifting and thinning based on latest obs and satellite trends. Expect clouds to evolve into a decent CU field this afternoon with not much in the way of lift to promote shwr/tstm development. Latest Hi-res guidance not all that impressive with any development this afternoon so will leave PoPs capped no higher than 20%. Temps trends are also running cooler due to the cloud cover and made subtle adjustments to the max temp forecast. Highs from the upr 80s north to the low/mid 90s south. HI values remain below 105 degrees all areas, so need for a heat advisory. Previous Discussion... Latest surface analysis shows a trough of low pressure across the fa with a stalled frontal boundary across pa/nj. This frnt will stay n of the local area today, with a weak thermal trough remaining over the immediate area. Chance of rain will be lower than previous days (only 20%) as shortwave energy is pushing ne of the area already this morng, and little in the way of upr- level support will remain. Also of note is this will be the first day in six days without the need for a heat advisory. Hi temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s and dewpts in the lo/mid 70s will yield heat indices in the 100-104 range over extreme se va/ne nc and 90-100 elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Any ongoing convection will diminish this eveng/overnight following the loss of daytime heating. Temps will bottom out in the lo/mid 70s under a prtly/mstly cloudy sky. For this weekend...the aforementioned boundary drops towards the area and weakens. With a weak thermal trough in the vicinity and upr-level trough over the eastern CONUS, there will be a good chance (40-50%) of shras/tstms both days, with the precip again being generally diurnally driven. Expect high temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s with low temps ranging through the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front finally begins to advance on the Mid Atlantic Sunday night and is expected to cross the area during Monday...stalling near the Carolinas into mid week. This will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast mainly west of Ches Bay in Ern/Cntrl VA and NE NC Sun night through Tue night. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure settles over New England which will result in more seasonal temps in the upper 80s and cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively lowering heat indices into the lower 90s in the extended forecast periods. In addition, onshore winds develop by Tue morning and are expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus having a drying effect on the overall weather and reducing precip chances below any mention. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Will carry VCSH across sern TAF sites next few hrs per current radar trends. Stubborn MVFR SC slow to break up across the area but do expect all sites to become VFR under a SCT-BKN CU deck. CU dissipate after sunset with only high level clouds thru the overnight period. Some patchy fog possible late tonight at SBY. OUTLOOK...There is a better chance (40-50%) of shras/tstms both days this weekend with a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity. Periods of mvfr/ifr conditions are possible in any tstms.
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&& .MARINE... Sub-sca conditions are expected to prevail across the marine area through the weekend into early next week. A weak cold front will push through the region this morning producing a wind shift to nw with speeds generally 10-15kt. The front drops south of the area tonight resulting in an e wind of 5-10kt. The front lifts back to the north Saturday into Saturday night with the wind becoming se 10- 15kt. The front settles over the region Sunday into Monday and pushes off the coast Monday night into Tuesday. Seas average 2-3ft through the period with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJZ

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