Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191517 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1117 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through the area this morning and move south into North Carolina by this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight through early next week. The next cold front will affect the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Overall thinking remains the same as far as the chances for rain this afternoon will be limited to the extreme sern part of the CWA as the cold front continues to slowly sag sewd and becomes more diffuse over time. The boundary has become harder to find and at 15z it appears to have made it down into the VA Tidewater area and just off the Delmarva coast. The major adjustment for this update was to be more optimistic with they sky cover for this afternoon so have lowered sky values some especially north of the frontal boundary. The mid level clouds that had been moving northward are scattering out as they encounter drier air. From a temperature standpoint, did bump up temps in NE NC a couple degrees into the lower 90s. Expect to see heat indices in the 100 to 105 range there. This is just below advisory criteria so will not add a head line, but it still will be warm and humid, but not near what was experienced on Friday afternoon. Prev Discussion... Latest analysis indicating a sfc cold front pushing through the CWA, earlier convection had been well out ahead of the front and has now diminished with just a few lingering showers over mainly eastern sections of the CWA. Expect these showers to continue to weaken/diminish through the next few hrs with genly dry conditions all areas by sunrise or shortly thereafter. The front will stall along the SE VA/NE NC coast late this morning into the aftn as upper level shortwave energy currently situated over the mid-MS/lower OH Valley tracks east. The combination of the stalled front and deeper moisture along and to the S/SE suggests that at least scattered showers/tstms will redevelop this aftn over the SE. Elsewhere will probably see some increase in clouds for a few hrs this aftn but airmass will be drier so will keep PoPs silent at less than 15%. Highs today will be slightly cooler than Fri, but still quite warm averaging in the upper 80s near the coast and around 90F inland. Dew pts will be noticeably lower across inland areas, falling into the 60s this aftn, but will remain in the 70s across the SE (perhaps even upper 70s along Albemarle Sound). Heat indices may approach 105 F for NE NC but will not be as high as on Fri and will refrain from issuing a heat adsy. Some clouds may persist this evening and some of the high res guidance as well as the GFS depicts light QPF over the eastern shore from 00-06Z. decided to keep PoPs capped at 14% for now and just raised cloud cover a bit through 06Z, followed by clearing conditions as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW overnight. Lows in the upper 60s along/west of I-95 to 70-75 F farther east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds over the area Sunday and lingers just off the coast through Monday. Went with a dry forecast for Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 80s along the coast and over the north to around 90 F inland over the central and south. As the high shifts off the coast on Mon, expect temperatures to rise slightly, with highs mainly upper 80s to lower 90s. Will have a 20% PoP for aftn tstms over the Piedmont. Becoming a little more humid Mon night/Tue as the highs shifts farther off the coast with 20-30% PoPs by Tue aftn as a weak thermal trough develops east of the Mtns. Highs into the lower 90s most areas away from the water Tue. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front is expected to track through the area on Wed...exiting the coast Thu morning. Conditions will become increasingly more humid ahead of the front. The frontal passage Wed/Wed night will provide a better focus for more organized thunderstorms to occur. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE VA/NE NC on Thu. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds across the Midwest with dry conditions anticipated for the Mid Atlantic Region Thu night-Fri night. Highs Wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s beaches. Highs Thu/Fri low-mid 80s; mid-upper 70s beaches. Lows Tue night generally 70-75F. Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to 70-75F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers have ended but some patchy low stratus will be possible over SE VA/NE NC through 14Z. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions for the rest of the day though possible ISOLD tstms in the afternoon SE VA-NE NC invof lingering weakening frontal boundary (best chance at ECG). VFR tonight-Mon as high pressure builds back into the region. Some patchy early morning fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings. Next front will approach late Tue and slowly cross the area on Wed. Flight restrictions possible w/ showers/tstms Wed. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term today thru Sun night. A cold front will cross the waters this morning, and then stall near the Mid Atlc coast thru Sat night. WSW winds 5 to 15 kt early this morning, will become NW or N later this morning thru midday, then become SE or S early this evening. SSW winds 5 to 10 kt tonight, will become WNW by early Sun morning. High pressure will build over the area during Sun, then slides offshr and out to sea for Mon and Tue. NNW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming NE or E during Sun, then ESE Sun night. ESE 5 to 10 kt becoming SE or S during Mon. S winds 5 to 15 kt on Tue, then SSW 10 to 20 kt Tue night, as a cold front approaches fm the WNW. The cold front will drop acrs the waters Wed into Wed night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB SHORT TERM...ESS/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG

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