Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 311744 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front then approaches from the west...crossing the area early Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Now post-tropical remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander along the Carolina coast today. Continued mild and moderately humid, with low clouds and morning fog again giving way to increasing aftn clouds and mainly diurnally driven showers and storms. Expect most of pcpn to be focused mainly along the llvl convergence boundary lifting across NE NC/SE VA counties this afternoon into early evening. Farther north, Showers/thunderstorms will be lower in areal coverage across northern tier of the local area, owing to meager forcing aloft and relative subsidence in low levels behind a weak front dropping across the area. Still, given the very moist airmass, at least a low pop is warranted. Forecast rain chances remain in chance to low end likely range 50-60% across the southeast, tapering back to slight chance to low end chance across the northeastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Look for highs today in the low-mid 80s, coolest across the southeastern coastal plain areas (NE NC/SE VA), where clouds should be thickest with greater Shower coverage. As with last night, expect forcing for ascent to shunt offshore, with diminishing areal coverage of showers. Will therefore go with a slight chc pop overnight tonight with additional areas of fog late. Early morning lows mostly in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Again very little change to sensible wx on Wednesday. The weakening remnant low lifts up toward the southern outer banks/Crystal Coast Region, with more mainly diurnally-driven showers and storms across our area. Continued seasonably warm and moderately humid w/highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Forecast PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-50 percent along the coast. GFS a bit quicker than the operational ECMWF clearing out the low for Thursday, and have gone with a blended solution for now which is in good agreement with the going forecast. Bit of a complicated setup for Thursday, with sfc low lingering off the Northern OBX as weak cool front crosses in from the west late in the day. Given the slower timing with the blended solution, expect that the inherited slight chc pops will be sufficient inland, with higher pops closer to the coast with the departing low. Warmer and still moderately humid with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled wx expected through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo pres to be slowly kicked out well off the coast Thu ngt through Fri w/ approach of a cold front fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The front crosses the fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls over the Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The front is expected to be pulled back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into Mon. Highs Fri fm the u70s on the Eastern shore to the l-m80s elsewhere...then in the m-u70s at the coast and l80s inland Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Subsidence behind departing low pressure has resulted in much less pcpn coverage than expected past several hours. However, plenty of low level moisture remains so that the sct-bkn st of this morning has only slowly lifted to cu between 2-4k ft this afternoon. Tropical moisture bands continue to stream north across the north carolina coastal plain and this moisture will likely make it at least to near ecg before 00Z...thus went with VCSH there. Otherwise...sct convection possible along seas breeze next several hours as well...but timing into any one TAF site is problematic given nothing on radar. Guid suggests another night of low stratus and fog so expect local ifr conditions once again late tonight. looks like a repeat performance Wednesday. outlook...sct convection with a cold front is expected to cross the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls along the Carolinas Sat and another round of showers will be possible across coastal sections.
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&& .MARINE... update...SCA flags issued through 100 PM this aftn for srn waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Light due to seas of 4-5ft. Persistent onshore swell from the remnants of Bonnie are the culprit. Will monitor seas through this morning should the SCA flags need to be extended. Previous discussion... Patchy fog on Ern VA rivers well inland from Ches Bay and invof Ocean City, MD. Conditions should improve by mid morning. Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated over the waters with east winds aob 10kt today/tonight. The remnants of Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue to wrap rain showers into the area through Wed night primarily from Cape Charles Light/New Point Comfort swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn thunder in the forecast during this time. Seas 3-4ft/waves 1-2ft. Winds become more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the immediate coast through Thu as the remnant low of Bonnie tracks over the NC Outer Banks during Thu and off the Mid Atlantic coast/Delmarva on Fri. Seas expected to build to 4-5ft Wed night into Thu before subsiding to 3-4ft Thu night. Waves build to 2-3ft and then diminish to 1-2ft during the same timeframe. The last of Bonnie finally gets pushed out to sea by Fri night as a cold front crosses the region Fri aftn and across the waters Fri night. Winds become more nely and diminish to 10kt or less on Fri...becoming s-se ahead of the approaching front late Fri aftn into Fri evening. The front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of showers and aftn thunderstorms will be possible. Wind direction briefly turns w-ne behind the front Fri night/Sat morning, and then settles to a more sly direction through the rest of the upcoming weekend...generally aob 15kt. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 is 9.79", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional rainfall is possible through this evening, which could push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08"). Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond... 1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/30) 2. 9.13" 1889 3. 8.98" 1873 4. 8.87" 1972 5. 8.67" 1886 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.