Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261816 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 216 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CONUS THROUGH THIS LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENG ATTM...W/ TRAILING AXIS OF UVM AND AN AREA OF SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS STRETCHING WSW THROUGH SE PA-NRN WV. HI RES MDLS WEAKEN THAT AREA OF PCPN AS IT CONTS TO THE SE NEXT FEW HRS. PRIMARY CDFNT STILL FAR BACK TO THE NNW. OVR THE FA THROUGH THIS AFTN...SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING...ESP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH FM THE NW AS GUSTY SW WNDS TO 20-30 MPH PERSIST. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND...AND TO THE M70S-L80S CLOSER TO THE CST. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA BY MID/LT AFTN NW OF THE FA...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD SE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. HIGHEST POPS RMN ALG-N OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE THROUGH 00-01Z/26. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WNDS...PSBL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (ALL HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO). SLGT RISK FM SPC RMNS NW...W/ FA OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL THUNDER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A WARM AND DAMP NIGHT AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NORTH. THE FRONT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER BY WED MORNING AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NC BY WED AFTN. COOLING NE WINDS LOCATED NORTH OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF ERN PIEDMONT AND INLAND NE NC DURING PEAK HEATING. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STALLING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE TEMP FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S NE OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE 70S SW OF IT. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WED NIGHT AND THEN NUDGES BACK TO THE NORTH ON THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THIS OCCURS... WITH PRECIP COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD. THERE IS A LOT OF TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THUS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO WOBBLE AROUND RATHER THAN MOVE IN ANY DEFINITIVE DIRECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR (FAVORING AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SRN VA/NE NC). LOWS WED NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S. HIGHS THU SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WED WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S NE TO LOW-MID 70S SW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AT 18Z...HI PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE CST...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FM PA WSW THRU THE OH VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FM THE N LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY THIS EVENG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENG/TNGT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC FM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS ACRS THE AREA LATER TNGT THRU WED MORNG...PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR DRIFTS NWRD INTO OUR REGION WED AFTN THRU FRI...PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVR OUR AREA. IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT INTO FRI. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER WED THRU FRI...WITH AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACRS SRN VA/NE NC.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N. A SW WIND OF 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ~5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CAPE CHARLES. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE SCA TODAY...AS THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OVER THE BAY (15-20KT). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW WIND BECOMING NE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJZ/JDM

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