Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290740 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S. THURSDAY... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S- L90S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON. FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. && .MARINE... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...LKB/TMG

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