Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200259 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1059 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will remain situated over the local area through Saturday. A stronger cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Sunday night...with high pressure building in for much of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Evening convection has come to an end across the region with the weakening surface front lingering across nrn NC. There is little convergence along this front and with little in the way of upper level lift, do not expect to see much in the way of showers overnight. So have dropped pops down to slight chance in the south and removed any mention of pcpn for VA/MD. The satellite shows some high level cirrus lingering from the earlier convection...but this should continue to thin and move away from the area so expect to see mainly clear sky across VA/MD with a few more clouds lingering in the vicinity of the front. For temperatures, have dropped values several degrees at many sites as conditions should be similar to last night and also used 10 PM temps as a guide as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Remnant/weak boundary lingers across SE VA/coastal NC Sat. Although not an exact repeat of today, Sat likely to be similar to today w/ mainly diurnally favored shras/tstms. Again will have highest POPs 30-50% along/S of I-64...and POPs aob 20% on NNE. Vrb clouds warm/humid with highs mainly from 85 to 90f. Most models conmtinue to show period of limited convective potential Sat night into early Sun afternoon as low level flow becomes more SSW. A much more significant cold front will be approaching from the NW Sun afternoon as trough aloft sharpens across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Continuing w/ POPs to 40-60% in most places by mid-late Sun afternoon as cold front arrives. Otherwise...partly-mostly cloudy warm and humid w/ lows Sat night in the 70s. Highs Sun in the u80s to l90s. Cold front will push off the coast Sun ngt w/ at least SCT shras- tstms (mainly up to midnight). Sfc hi pres will then build into the region providing much drier and more comfortable wx. Lows Sun night from the m60s NW to the m70s SE. Highs Mon in the l-m80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will dominate most of the extended period, as it blds into and ovr the area for Mon into Wed, then slides into the Nrn Atlc for later Wed thru Fri. Expect Dry wx and comfortable temps and humidity levels Mon ngt thru at least Wed, then warmer temps and increasing humidity for Thu and Fri, as winds turn to the SE or S. A cold front will start to approach fm the WNW late Fri. Lows in the upr 50s to mid 60s Mon ngt, in the lower to mid 60s Tue ngt, in the 60s Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thu ngt. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Tue and Wed, ranging thru the 80s Thu, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Fri. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions at all terminals this evening. ECG briefly dropped to IFR with a shower around 23z, but these have since moved out.Some localized MVFR fog is possible across south VA and NE NC where it rained this afternoon, and have opted to include a tempo MVFR visibility at ECG overnight. Otherwise, additional showers and storms may develop Saturday afternoon along the diffuse frontal boundary/trough near the VA/NC border, although conditions will remain VFR away from any storms. Additional showers/storms are expected Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front. Dry and precipitation free behind the front early next week. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tngt thru Sun. A couple of weak boundaries will affect the area tngt into Sat, with a warm front followed by a strong cold front affecting the area late Sat into early Mon morning. Expect winds 10 kt or less fm vrbl directions tngt thru Sun morng, then SW 5 to 15 kt late Sun into Sun evening becoming NW or N 10 to 20 kt late Sun ngt into Mon morning. High pressure blds into and over the region for Mon thru Tue, then slides off the New England/nrn Mid Atlc coast during Wed. N winds 5 to 15 kt Mon ngt, NNE winds 5 to 15 kt Tue, then NE 5 to 15 kt Tue ngt and Wed. Waves 1-2 ft, seas arnd 2 ft thru Sun, then waves 1-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft late Sun ngt thru Tue. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D will be out of service through the weekend. The replacement part will arrive on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MRD MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...

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