Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020621 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 221 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.
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&& .MARINE...
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UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN. WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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&& .CLIMATE... JUNE 2015 CLIMATE: AT NORFOLK: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD. *TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD. AT RICHMOND: *AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...AKQ

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