Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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245 FXUS61 KAKQ 210542 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 142 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the weekend while Tropical Cyclone Jose will to meanders south of the New England coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Light nrly to nwrly flow continues over the region this evening as weak high pressure over wrn pa is providing enough of a buffer to keep TS Jose off the NY/NE coast. The late afternoon convection did slide into the south central Va Piedmont, but has since dissipated. The satellite shows that most of the daytime cu has dissipated too. So have updated the sky cover to remove most of the clouds overnight and adjusted overnight lows close to last nights readings which were a little cooler than forecast over the interior sections west of Interstate 95. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pres sfc-aloft will be in control from the interior NE CONUS WSW to the Great Lakes-OH Valley Thu-Sat while remnant circulation from Jose churns (while weakening) SSE of the New England coast. ISOLD-SCT (primarily) diurnal convection will stay WSW of the FA. Periodic clouds possible...esp ern portions of FA by Sat due to potential close proximity of remnant low off to the ENE (out over the ocean). Highs Thu in the u70s-l80s at the coast to m-u80s inland. Lows Thu night 65-70F. Highs Fri-Sat in the u70s-around 80F at the coast to mainly m80s inland. Lows Fri night in the l-m60s inland to u60s-around 70F right at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon while a much weakened/remnant circulation (of Jose) slowly tracks wwd toward the nrn mid- Atlantic coast (12Z/20 GFS more aggressive in that scenario than the 12Z/20 ECMWF). Regardless...expecting some increase in clouds and will carry minimal PoPs by Mon...esp near the coast as winds turn (a little) more onshore. Lows Sat night in the l-m60s...except u60s at the coast. Lows Sun night mainly in the m-u60s. Highs Sun/Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the coast...m80s inland. Wx conditions Tue-Wed will depend on track of Tropical Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose) would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more to the E would result in drier wx. For now...generally taking the middle of the road/blend of all guidance meaning...VRB clouds/20-40% PoPs (highest E) Mon night-Tue night. Monitor forecasts from TPC on Maria through the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Generally VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as high pressure influences our weather pattern. Some patchy MVFR fog cannot be ruled out early this morning at typical fog prone sites (PHF/SBY) but confidence is still too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise, any patchy fog quickly dissipates after sunrise with VFR conditions expected during the day on Thursday. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend period as high pressure builds into the region.
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&& .MARINE... Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift NE (S of the New England coast) through tonight...then linger (even move back WSW while weakening) through the weekend. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will begin to impact the waters beginning Fri...continuing through the weekend. Have decided to go w/ SCAHS on the ocean waters starting w/ new package...and extending through Fri due to lingering seas aoa 5 ft. Seas will once again ramp up Friday and into the weekend as swells from distant Tropical Cyclone Maria begin to impact the region (from the SSE). Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be be needed on the ocean waters through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Made some adjustments to the forecast, with tidal departures now about the same in the upper Bay as the lower Bay (averaging close to +1.5 ft throughout). This due to water not exiting the Bay efficiently (looking at currents at the Cape Henry channel marker currents). The level at Cambridge may be exacerbated by an additional few tenths of a foot due to NW winds ~10 kt trapping water in the inlet. Have upgraded to a coastal flood warning for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore (Dorchester/Wicomico/Somerset) for the upcoming high tide cycle later this aftn/early evening. Elsewhere, will allow the warning for the VA ern shore and ocean side of the MD shore to expire shortly after noon, with just additional minor flooding anticipated for the tide tonight and possibly on Thu. Will update these products early this aftn with additional coastal flood advisory headlines. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues today as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ095>097-099-100-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075-077-078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...ALB/JEF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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