Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211852 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95. BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST. NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS. HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THRU WED. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH 17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS NEAR TERM...WRS SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJZ/TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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