Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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643 FXUS61 KAKQ 280142 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 942 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure northwest of the Bahamas will move toward the South Carolina coast Saturday and Saturday night, and will linger along the coastal Carolinas Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The current analysis continues to depict surface high pressure well off the VA/NC Coast with a strong upper level ridge centered offshore west into southern VA and NC. A warm evening is occurring with temperatures ranging through the 70s across the area. Low pressure near the Bahamas was identified as tropical depression two earlier, and continues to drift nw. Once again, shower/tstm activity was largely confined to the mountains, with any lingering cells gradually diminishing this evening, hence dry conditions are expected locally overnight. The sky should be mainly clear overnight, with lows mainly 60-65 F. For Sat, as the sfc low tracks NW towards the SC coast, the upper ridge looks to be slow to retreat/weaken over the mid Atlc, and models are showing a large zone of subsidence north of the tropical low through most of the day. Guidance also reflecting drier air, lower dew pts than Fri with values into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Over ne NC, slightly more moisture will be around and will maintain POPS at 20% in the aftn. Otherwise, partly or mostly sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland/piedmont areas (warmest NW), and in the upper 70s to lwr 80s along the cst.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Deeper moisture finally pushes nwrd into the cwa later Sat night into Sun morning, with PWATS rising rapidly from only around 1.00" to 1.75 to 2.00" by Sun morning into the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of the remnant low into the SE coast will determine sensible wx on Sun, but models have remained consistent enough to support likely POPS most areas on Sunday as the warm and quite humid airmass will be in place. Highest POPS look to shift just inland from the coast by aftn. Periods of potentially moderate to heavy rain will alternate with a variably cloudy sky and probably some rain-free conditions. Highs on Sun generally in the upper 70s to lwr 80s. The low is slow to weaken acrs the Carolinas and get slowly transported NE Sun night/Mon as upper level trough from the W tries to push through. Potentially very wet conds from time to time. Will continue high chc to likely POPS Sun night/Mon. Warm and humid with lows 65-70 F and highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s Mon.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather conditions continue into the extended period as the remnant tropical depression (per NHC latest forecast) lingers over the Carolinas or near the Carolina coast Tuesday. Deepest moisture gets pushed offshore Tuesday as upper level energy lifts over the southeast local area. Will keep mention 30-50% POPS over the southeast half of the local area with only slight chance northeast half. The low weakens into Wednesday with an inverted trough/coastal front locating along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Lingering moisture along the coast will result in only chance POPs northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Dry conditions expected Wednesday night with a partly cloudy sky. An upstream trough approaches the region Thursday as upper level ridging remains over the western Atlantic. An associated cold front is forecast to reach the Ohio Valley early Thursday. Amplifying flow will lift the frontal boundary northward with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Piedmont and northeast North Carolina Thursday. Meanwhile, the remnant low pressure is expected to weaken off the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coasts. Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the week and into the weekend as the cold front approaches the region. The preference at this time is to stick with the ECMWF, which pushes the front across the region Friday. Unsettled conditions expected to persist into the weekend as the front likely stalls along the coast. Temperatures forecast generally around seasonable norms during the period. Highs low to mid 80`s with lows in the 60`s. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure ridge from the Atlantic and across the Mid Atlantic STates to western North Carolina will dominate the weather during the 00Z TAF period. Dew points are a bit higher than 24 hours ago and will need to consider fog and stratus for Saturday morning. At this point...IFR conditions do not appear to be widespread with low level moisture rather shallow. Some models indicate some lowering aviation conditions at ECG. For now at ECG...have scattered stratus and 4 mile visibility toward sunset. Later TAFs will reassess. Dry weather will prevail on Saturday due to subsidence north of the tropical system. Mid level clouds increase southeast portions during the afternoon as moisture begins to spread north. OUTLOOK...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected over the area Sunday and Monday due to moisture from the tropical cyclone. High pressure begins to build from the west Tuesday and Wednesday with decreasing chances for precipitation. && .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers high pressure over the western Atlantic with an area of low pressure northeast of the Bahamas. Southerly winds of 10-15 kt observed over the waters this afternoon. Waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic as the area of low pressure (possibly tropical or subtropical) lifts northwest toward the South Carolina coast. Majority of the impacts (high seas and strongest winds) will be felt along the Southeast Coast, with only the threat of showers and thunderstorms for the local waters. Flow becomes southeasterly Saturday, but remains generally 10-15 kt. Seas also remain 2-3 ft, but could build to 4 ft near Duck. Rather weak gradient expected over the waters Sunday as the low remains over the Carolinas or along the Southeast coast. Southeasterly winds at or below 10 kt. Seas build to 3-4 ft. South to southeast winds at or below 15 kt persist through Tuesday as the remnant low remains over the Carolinas. Sub-small craft conditions persist through the middle of next week. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. There is a good chance for additional rain Sun/Mon with the potential to end as the wettest May on record. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM CLIMATE...AKQ

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