Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 302105 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 405 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach from the west early this evening, then pushes across the Mid Atlantic region and off the coast tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure slowly builds into the area Thursday through Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Late this aftn, sfc low pressure was cntrd over Lake Huron. A cold front extended fm the low swrd thru cntrl OH, and ern KY/TN. As of 4 pm, latest rdr showed sctd showers moving NE into NE NC and extrm SE VA, while the leading edge of the main area of showers in advance of the cold front, was pushing into extrm wrn and swrn VA. These showers (isolated tstm) will move into our wrn counties between 7 and 8 pm this evening, then slide ENE acrs the remainder of the CWA and off the coast later this evening into early Thu morning. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours a possibility with any tstms. Otherwise, QPF amounts will average arnd .25 inch or less. Clearing out fm WNW to ESE late tngt into Thu morning...as westerly flow behind the front starts to usher drier air into the region. Lows will range fm near 50 extrm NW to the lower 60s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry/cooler wx expected Thu thru Fri...as W flow dominates the area. Sfc hi pres gradually builds toward the region fm the WNW. Generally mostly sunny both days...w/ highs Thu in the l-m60s... highs Fri in the l-m50s. Lows Thu ngt fm the l-m30s to around 40F.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Cool high pressure is expected to be centered over the Mid- Atlantic region Saturday night, before gradually sliding offshore later Sunday. A split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn stream wave diving into the Great Lakes. This will result in dry conditions Saturday night, with a mostly clear sky Saturday evening, followed by increasing clouds later Saturday night, and then mostly cloudy by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s to around 50. The Great Lakes system passes to the north Sunday night as the Gulf system passes to the south. 30/12z GFS/CMC each split the moisture north and south of the region, with the 30/12z ECMWF and GEFS mean depicting some light rain passing through the region. A 20-30% PoP is forecast for this time period, followed by drier conditions Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s, after morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure slides offshore Monday night as low pressure approaches from the west. This system crosses the area Tuesday, with high pressure returning Wednesday, ahead of yet another low pressure system approaching from the west. Highs Tuesday should again be in the low/mid 50s, and moderating to the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. Morning lows should be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18z...A cold front extends from low pressure over northern Michigan south across western Ohio to the Alabama Gulf Coast. This front will move across the Appalachians this evening and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast overnight. Showers ended over the area this morning. More showers and a few thunderstorms were over West Virginia at midday. VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings were observed at the TAF sites. Showers will accompany the cold front late this evening and overnight. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected during precipitation tonight. South to southwest winds will gust to between 20 and 25 knots this afternoon. Winds will continue gusty at times until frontal passage and slowly veer behind the front. Winds may gust to around 15 to 20 knots from the west and northwest during Thursday. OUTLOOK...High pressure builds from the west through Friday and settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry conditions can be expected. There will be a chance for rain Sunday night and Monday as weak low pressure moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast States. && .MARINE...
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Low pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this aftn, with a cold front trailing back through the Ohio Valley. A s wind is averaging 10-15kt this aftn, but this should increase by this evening through the early overnight hours as low pressure passes n of the area and the cold front arrives from the w. The wind should gradually become sw and increase to 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt possible. The cold front will move offshore late tonight with the wind becoming w and diminishing to 10-15kt. Seas build to 4-6ft s to 5-7ft n, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay. Current SCA flags remain as is. Vsby has improved n of Parramore Is., so the dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire. A w to nw wind at 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean continues behind the front Thursday into Friday. A modest CAA surge arrives Friday night into Saturday and this could produce low-end SCA conditions for the nrn portion of the marine area. High pressure builds into the area Sunday, with weak low pressure crossing the region Sunday night, and high pressure returning Monday.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Well above normal temperatures are forecast today. Some temperatures will approach record highs. Records highs: Richmond: 77 (1933) Norfolk: 79 (2001) Salisbury: 74 (1933) Elizabeth City: 80 (2001) Wallops Island: 74 (1991) Record high mins challenged: Salisbury 61 (2001) (tied as of this morning) Elizabeth City 60 (1934)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...AKQ

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