Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130904 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front drops through the area this morning as high pressure builds over New England. The cold front settles over the Southeast through the weekend as high pressure slides off the Northeast coast. A warm front lifts through the region Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a strong upper low tracking across southeast Canada this morning. The associated cold front is stretching across the northern Mid-Atlantic region into the southern Appalachians. Strong ~1040mb surface high pressure is currently build southward into the Upper Midwest in wake of the strong upper low. A warm and relatively moist air mass remains over the region ahead of the front, with temperatures still in the mid to upper 50`s to around 60. A southwest wind of 5-10 mph and mid to high level clouds have inhibited fog development this morning. The cold front drops into the northern portions of the forecast area early this morning, reaching central Virginia around daybreak, and pushing south of the forecast area by late morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, the surface high strengthens to 1045+mb and builds into the western Great Lakes. The strongest cold air advection will lag behind the upper front, with a sharp decline in low level thicknesses expected during the afternoon. Highs will be reached mid to late morning, warming a few degrees into the mid to upper 50`s to low 60`s southwest. Temperatures then expected to fall through the afternoon, dropping into the 40`s across the entire forecast area by late afternoon. North to northeast winds could gust to around 20 mph near the coast. Have increased cloud cover to cloudy as BUFR soundings and model guidance indicate high relative humidity in the low levels. Based on the lack of forcing and westerly flow aloft, have kept POPs silent. High pressure continues to build into the region from the north- northeast tonight. Temperatures steadily fall overnight with lows eventually ranging from the low 30`s north to the mid to upper 30`s south. 13/00Z guidance continues to indicate some light overrunning precipitation, with GFS/NAM 295K surfaces spreading the overrunning moisture across the northwest half of the local area toward the Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight. Enough low level cold air arrives late (mainly below 900mb) to bring a chance of rain/freezing rain/sleet across the northern forecast area. 850Mb temps expected to stay between +3 to +5C. Best chances for light freezing rain expected from the Northern Neck to the Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight. However, confidence is not high due to borderline temperatures and onshore flow. Little, if any ice accumulation is expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure slides off the Northeast coast Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls over the Southeast. The result will be ongoing northeast flow and wedge conditions. A wintry mix is expected to be ongoing across the northern portions of the forecast area Saturday morning, with freezing rain still possible from the Northern Neck to the Maryland Eastern Shore. GFS/GEFS keeps the coldest air north of the region, but the more reliable NAM/SREF guidance (in wedge setups) drops some minor ice accumulations across that area. Forecasting only a light glaze with accumulations less than 5 hundredths of an inch. Some ice may build up on elevated surfaces or sidewalks. BUFR soundings and SREF probabilities push chances for sleet southward toward Richmond Saturday morning, but still expect the predominate precip type to be a cold rain. Have increased POPs to likely across the north and northeast half of the local area Saturday morning, tapering to low end chance across the southwest. Increased POPs for the Maryland Eastern Shore to categorical Saturday afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the west. Temperatures and low level thicknesses warm through the afternoon, with the p-type becoming all rain across the forecast area. Overall, forcing and moisture will be limited, resulting in only light QPF amounts (a tenth to a quarter of an inch north to a few hundredths south). Continue to undercut guidance due to cloud cover and northeast winds. Highs in the mid 30`s north to low 40`s south. Low pressure develops offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night as shortwave energy digs over the Delmarva. Will linger POPs along the coast Saturday night as the moisture plume begins to push offshore and southward. Lows in the low 30`s north to upper 30`s south. Latest guidance has backed off on precip chances Sunday as the plume of moisture pushes south of the region. BUFR soundings indicate drying in the mid levels, but low level moisture will keep cloudy conditions in place through the day. A few breaks in the clouds expected across the northeast late Sunday. Will keep mention of slight chance to low end chance POPs for the Piedmont, but silent elsewhere. Highs in the low 40`s north to around 50 south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Frontal boundary remains south of the fa Sun night before lifting north as a warm front Mon. Will continue to carry low end pops for light rain/drizzle in cool wedged airmass Sunday night into Monday morning. Could see some light freezing rain/drizzle across the lower Maryland eastern shore early Monday morning as temps drop to near 32. Otw, just liquid expected as reading stay above freezing but remain in the 30s. Highs Mon from the mid 40s N to lwr 50s S. The warm front lifts north of the region Mon night as strong low pressure tracks from the midwest (where an ice storm is expected) NE into the upr Gt Lakes region by mid week. This slow movement keeps AKQ fa in warm sector for most of next week thanks to high pressure off the sern coast. Models differ on timing of the trailing cold front across the area (GFS faster) but are coming together for a rather strong fropa with a possible triple point low tracking just north of the area late Thurs/Thurs night. Pcpn becomes more scattered and showery in nature due to being in the warm sector. Kept thunder out of forecast with the late week fropa for now. Highs Tues lwr 50s ern shore to lwr 60s SW. Lows Tue night in the 40s. Highs Wed from the mid 50s to lwr 60s south. Lows Wed night mid 40s to mid 50s. Highs Thurs mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A southwest wind of 5-15 knots and VFR conditions persist to begin the 06Z TAF period. Broken to high clouds are streaming over the region ahead of a cold front stretching from the northern Mid-Atlantic region to the central Appalachians. As the front drops through the area Friday morning, winds shift to the north to northeast as strong high pressure builds north of the region. Few gusts to 20 knots possible today. Clouds increase along the boundary, lowering to MVFR at all TAF sites. Latest guidance indicates the potential for a brief period of IFR ceilings along the front, but general model consensus keeps conditions MVFR at worst. MVFR ceilings expected to linger through the morning, and into the afternoon across southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. There is a higher potential for more significant flight restrictions on Sat, with some mixed precipitation possible by Sat morning over the N and mainly a chance for rain elsewhere. MVFR/IFR flight restrictions likely to persist into at least Sunday (and perhaps into Mon) as a frontal boundary lingers across the Carolinas and a NE low level flow prevails. Still a lot of clouds and unsettled Mon night/tue but should see a gradual improvement as flow shifts more to the S. && .MARINE... SCAs for ocean/Ches Bay/sound and Lower James River today...ending various times tonight/Sat morning. SW-W winds to start today...swinging to NNE after backdoor cold front drops S across the waters (through this morning). Speeds to pick up to 15 to 25 kt over the waters after the wind shift (to the N). Sfc hi pres builds into New England for the weekend...keeping persistent NNE winds...though speeds expected to be a few/several KT lower. There is potential for a another (short) period of increased speeds w/ a secondary push of low level CAA Sun morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Latest storm surge guidance continues to indicate below normal tides into Fri afernoon. ahead of the cold front. Tidal locations along the Atlantic coast...lower Ches Bay/James River can expect departures of -0.5 to -1.5 MLLW. && .CLIMATE... Record max temperatures were set at SBY and ECG today. * Salisbury, MD: 67Previous: 65 (1913) * Elizabeth City, NC: 72 Previous: 70 (2005) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ634-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633-650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...SAM/JEF MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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