Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240155 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 955 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL VA TO NE MD. THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH MORE REGIONALLY EXTENDS FROM NE PA BACK THROUGH WV. THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CLIP FAR NRN AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING TO THE E LATE. A BAND OF 40-50% POPS EXTENDS ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS...AND TAPERS DOWN TO 20% FROM THE RIC METRO TO THE VA ERH SHORE. OTHERWISE...A WARM HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SE ACROSS THE FA THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWING AS IT APPRCHS THE NC/NC BORDER DRNG THE AFTRN. MEANWHILE... MODELS DEPICT WEAK S/W MOVG NE ALONG THE BNDRY DRNG THE AFTRN AND EVENING. BEST FORCING COUPLED WITH A 60-70KT RRQ OF UPR JET APPEARS TO ENHANCE PCPN CHC ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF THE FA THAT NEED RAIN THE MOST (IVOF RIC METRO AREA) MAY LUCK OUT WITH THE HIGHER QPF`S ONCE AGAIN. SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE FROPA. GIVEN PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...SOME HVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WNDS PSBL IN ANY TSTRM ACROSS THE SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA...CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. TMPS TRICKY. HIGHS 80-85 NORTH... 85-90 SOUTH. BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI AFTRN. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EVE...WITH CHC POPS AFTER MIDNITE. DRYING FROM THE NORTH ENDS PCPN THERE. STILL MUGGY THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NC CNTYS DRNG THE AFTRN. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE SAT AFTRN. GFS WETTER FARTHER NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOWS FRI NIGHT 65-70. HIGHS SAT 85-90.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 23Z...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TO WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS AT SBY FROM 04-06Z. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. COLD FRONT FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY IN THE MORNING AND REACH SE PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. PCPN BREAKS OUT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY OVER FAR SRN VA AND NE NORTH CAROLINA. INDICATED SHOWERS FOR RIC/ORF AND PHF IN THE AFTN. TSTMS WILL BE PSBL DURING THESE TIMES. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF SBY AND THROUGH 00Z...NORTH OF ECG. KEPT IFR OUT OF THE FCST. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT SOME STRATUS WILL BE PSBL. HAVE SCT STRATUS SE PORTIONS BUT IT IS PSBL THAT MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AT SOME OF THE SITES NEAR SUNRISE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE. CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC HI PRES LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND A FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF A PREFRNTAL TROF OVR THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN/EVENG...SLY WINDS OVR THE BAY WILL RISE TO 10-15 KT...JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT FOR NRN CSTL WTRS. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS ON THU...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW...AND STAYING SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRNT DUE TO VERY WEAK CAA. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT OVR CSTL WTRS. NEXT COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON/MON NGT. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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