Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291837 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 237 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low slowly drops south from the Great Lakes overnight through Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure builds well north of the region and steers a moisture rich airmass into the region tonight Through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current GOES water vapor imagery depicts the center of an anomalous upper low near the IN/KY border. Upstream of the upper low, a plume of anomalous moisture extends from the coasts of NC/se VA to the Delmarva and into Ern PA/NJ. Blended TPW imagery shows pw values of 1.5-2.0", which is around 150-200% of normal. At the surface, low pressure is centered over wrn NC with a trough off the NC coast. 1039mb high pressure is centered over se QB and is ridging sw through New England and into the nrn Mid- Atlantic. Visible imagery depicts cloud cover over most of the area. However, there are some breaks across se VA/ne NC. A vast majority of the area is experiencing a break in rainfall, with shra concentrated along the wrn shore of the Bay, the Atlantic coast around Ocean City, with iso-sct coverage over interior ne NC. The upper low continues to dig southward through the Ohio Valleys today into tonight. Meanwhile, upper ridging builds north of the Great Lakes across southeast Canada. This will focus increasing moisture flux and enhanced convergence north of the frontal boundary draped across central Virginia. However, a high precipitable water airmass (1.5-2.0") remains over the local area today, resulting in a continued heavy rainfall threat across the northern half of the area into tonight. Afternoon convection will enhance the rain rates. Rainfall amounts could reach 2-3 inches across the far northern tier counties bordered by 1-2 inches from Emporia to the Maryland Eastern Shore. A flash flood watch remains in effect through tonight. Highs today generally in the mid 70`s inland to low 80`s southeast. Mild tonight, with lows 8-12 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 60`s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Unsettled conditions continue into Friday as the upper low lingers w of the area, but overall moisture transport should diminish, with the heavy rain threat diminishing. The upper low begins to fill and lift n by Saturday resulting in gradually improving conditions. The sky remains mostly cloudy to overcast through the period. High temperatures range from the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Anomalous upper low will make its way through the eastern Great Lakes Sat night/Sunday and into New England by Monday where it becomes more of an open wave/trough. This feature then moves off the Northeast coast early next week. Based on the latest model guidance...have slowed the timing of pcpn exiting the FA with chc pops (30-50%) lingering across eastern areas Sat night...diminishing to slight chc pops across eastern areas by Sun eve. Will maintain dry wx Monday, then a lot of uncertainty develops by Monday night into the middle of next week. There`s the potential for the remnants of the upper low/trough to linger offshore (providing moist onshore/easterly flow locally) and also uncertainty with regards to the eventual track of TS Matthew. Will carry low end pops for now Tue-Wed. Highs through the period mainly in the 70s. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure remains west of the region today, with high pressure anchored well ne of the area. This continues to steer a moisture rich airmass into the region and showers and iso tstms are increasing in coverage this afternoon. Cigs are variable this afternoon, vfr at most sites, mvfr at orf, and ifr at SBY. Expect vsby to fall to 1-3sm in heavier rain. An ene wind of 8-15kt is observed across the region, locally gusting up to 25kt along the coasts of se VA/ne NC, and stronger at SBY with a sustained speeds ~20kt, and a recent gust up to 35kt. Areas of showers/embedded tstms should continue through the evening, before gradually shifting to the nw later tonight into Friday morning. Cigs likely remain ifr at SBY through tonight into Friday morning, with ifr cigs developing at RIC later tonight. Some fog is possible later tonight, with vsby generally 2-4sm. Unsettled conditions persist Friday afternoon and evening, before gradually improving Saturday through early next week as upper level low pressure lifts n of the region. && .MARINE... Latest analysis shows surface low pressure from the SC piedmont to VA, with strong/anomalous surface high pressure (1035 mb+) centered over eastern Canada. The pattern today and tonight will feature this strong high building over eastern Canada, ridging into New England and the northern mid-Atlc region. A persistent/strong E/NE flow will prevail over northern portions of the marine area and have upgraded far northern coastal waters to a Gale Warning for today/tonight based on pattern with the surface high building to near 1040 mb). Elsewhere, have added several more zones to SCA headlines as winds gradually taper off to the 10-15 KT in NC and for the upper James. NC coastal waters still expected to have seas build to 5 ft so only zones that will not have any headlines will be the upper James and the sound. Winds diminish from S to N tonight and for all areas on Fri as the surface low lifts N and pressure gradient weakens. Coastal seas will diminish but still remain elevated at 4-6 ft into Fri night and possibly Sat due to residual swell. SSE flow expected Sat leading to sub-SCA conditions elsewhere with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The synoptic pattern with strong High pressure centered over eastern Canada with a slow moving boundary/sfc low pressure inland over the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic will continue to bring persistent ENE flow to the area today/Fri. Departures avg 1.0 to 1.5 feet for the most part. Have expanded Coastal Flood Advisories to now include all zones in adjacent to the Bay and the James/York/Rappahannock River...with ocean side of the eastern shore also included. Many areas in the lower Bay to fall a little shy of criteria with the high tide this morning, but should see departures rise a bit more by this aftn/tonight/early Fri and have the advisory to cover the 2nd high tide overnight/early Fri. Will likely need to extend these advisories into Fri night and possibly Sat as offshore seas remain elevated and water is expected to struggle to exit the bay for several days. Chance for moderate- severe flooding is low, best chance would be across ocean side of the Accomack VA and Worcester MD by Fri. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024- 025. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ021>025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048- 060>062-064-066>069-509>516. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 084>086-089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for VAZ095>097- 523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099- 100. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ075>078-083-085- 517>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 636-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634-635. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB

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