Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 071712 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 112 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BROAD/WK TROUGH ALOFT PASSES BY TO THE N TDA...OTRW SFC HI PRES RMNS ANCHORED OFF THE CST. WARMING TREND CONTS TDA W/ SSW LO LVL FLO...ALG W/ MODEST RISE IN DEWPTS...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW VALUES TO FALL/RMN IN THE L60S. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M90S AWAY FROM THE COAST (80S RIGHT AT THE BEACHES). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLR-PCLDY WARM NGT TNGT W/ LO TEMPS AVGG IN THE L/M70S. HOT W/ MDT HUMIDITY ON TUE W/ SFC HI PRES STILL OFF THE CST...RESULTING IN DP LYRD SSWLY FLO. A LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE PIEDMONT/HIGHER TERRAIN IN WCNTRL VA BY LT TUE AFTN...THOUGH ANY TRIGGER QUITE WK. HI TEMPS IN THE M/U90S...U80S TO L90S RIGHT AT THE CST. MIXING AGN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STEADY OR FALLING DEWPTS TUE AFTN KEEPING HEAT INDICES FM RISING TOO MUCH ABV 100F. A LTL BETTER CHC FOR AT LEAST SCT TSTMS BY WED AS CDFNT FM THE WNW CROSSES THE MTNS...INTERACTING W/ HOT AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT/CSTL PLAIN. WILL KEEP POPS 20-30%...MNLY FOR WED AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M90S MOST PLACES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONTINUED UPPER TROF ALONG THE ERN USE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THE LATER PERIODS. THIS HELPS TO PUSH A FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THE FRONT JUST STALLS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GFS ENSEMBLE BOTH SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WHETHER THE FRONT COULD ACTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ONE OF THE DAYS BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST. ALSO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRY AND PLEASANT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY FAIR WX CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. S-SW WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY EACH DAY FROM MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED AFTN/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... UPDATE...SCA CANCELLED FOR SRN CHES BAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFF THE SE CST TDA LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF SLY FLOW OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE LWR JAMES WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVRNGT. WILL MAINTAIN 10 AM SCA END TIME FOR THE BAY...BUT WITH WINDS ALREADY STARTING TO DIMINISH...WILL REASSESS FOR A PSBL CANCELLATION BY 7 AM. OTWS...WINDS BCM 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNG...WITH 2-3 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENG OVR THE BAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. WILL HOLD OFF ON A SCA FOR NOW TO AVOID A DOUBLE HEADLINE. S/SW WINDS STAY ~15 KT OVR THE BAY TUE AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. SEAS WILL APPROACH 5 FT OVR NRN CSTL WTRS LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRNT APPROACHES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND STALLS IN THE VICINITY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD/MAS

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