Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211733 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1233 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure develops along the southeast coast tonight, and tracks northeast and off the mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday as a cold front pushes through the local area. High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday afternoon through Friday as low pressure lingers from Florida to South Carolina. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current forecast on track with only minor changes made to the grids late this morning. Cirrus will continue to overspread the area from the SSW along with SCT-BKN SC developing over the next few hrs. Look for skies to become pt sunny. Highs 60-65. PVS DSCN: A quick moving nrn stream wave lifts into the northeast Wed with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12Z Wed. Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift N-NE along the Mid- Atlantic coast Wed. Where the models continue to differ is just how far west any measurable pcpn gets. GFS is closer to the coast with the NAM/SREF/ECMWF favoring some light pcpn as far west as the Piedmont. Best lift progged east of I95 between 06Z- 12Z Wed. Thus, expect a period of showers mainly along and east of I-95 after midnight...quickly shifting toward the coast around 12Z then offshore by 15Z Wed. Kept likely pops east of I95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows Tues night in the 40s to lwr 50s SE. Little QPF west of I95, .10 to .25 east. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Given the spread in the models between the drier GFS and slower/wetter NAM, have bumped PoPs up a bit along the coast through 15Z Wed morning to high chance (40-50%) with low-end likely PoPs just off the coast. Dry farther inland. Skies clear out around sunrise west of I-95 and by late morning along the coast. Mostly sunny all areas Wed aftn as much drier air filters in on NNW low level flow and sfc high pressure building in from the NW. Lagging CAA and sunshine should allow for highs in the upper 50s north to the lower-mid 60s SE. Mostly clear/colder Wed night/thu am with lows in the mid 20s NW to the mid 30s SE. GFS is more aggressive than the ECWMF/NAM at allowing for deeper moisture to linger and lift back N in the vicinity of the NC coast for Thanksgiving. Increased clouds a bit over SE VA/NE NC but stayed with a dry forecast for now even in these areas. Overall mostly sunny N to partly sunny S. Chilly for Thanksgiving day with high in the mid-upper 40s to lower 50s (genly going on the cold side of MAV/MET guidance due to shallow mixing as the sfc high settles over northern 1/2 of the CWA). Partly cloudy Thu night and mostly sunny and turning a little milder Fri with highs in the lower-mid 50s after lows mainly in the 30-35 F range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The next front pushes across the region Sat. It will be moisture starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs Sat in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry / colder Sun and Mon as Canadian high pressure returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun night in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Mon only in the low-mid 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions to start the forecast period as high/mid level clouds increase through 00Z. Latest guidance suggests CIGs continue to lower (but still remain avove 3k FT) across the region this evening with pcpn holding off until 03Z. Moisture ahead of a cold front will combine with low pressure moving ne along the coast to produce MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in shwrs between 06Z-14Z, pushing offshore around 15Z. Some of the guidance is showing Lcl IFR CIGS around 12Z but confidence not high enough that will occur. Drying of the column will result in decreasing clouds through the day with all TAF sites becoming VFR by 18Z. The SSW winds today at 10-15kts shift to the NNW behind the cold frontal passage Wed morning. OUTLOOK... VFR conditions return for the rest of the week as high pressure builds into the region from the west. && .MARINE... High pressure over the area this morning will slide offshore by midday and move further out to sea this afternoon. Expect winds to remain S-SW 10 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over nrn coastal waters) thru today. Seas 2 ft south and 2-4 ft north; waves 1-3 ft. A canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front through the OH Valley late today, approaching the waters Wed morning. Also, low pressure will develop off the SE coast tonight, then lifts NE just off the Mid Atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn. Expect S-SW winds 5-15 kt tonight to become WNW around daybreak Wed. Winds then increase to 15- 25 kt all waters by late Wed morning/afternoon (highest southern coastal waters where gusts may reach 30 kt). Winds become N and gradually diminish Wed night as cool high pressure builds into the region. SCAs will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the marine area for Wed/Wed night. After coordination with neighboring offices, plan to hold off on issuance of SCA this morning as start time is still 3rd period. Seas expected to reach 5-7 ft; waves 3-4 ft on Wed. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Thanksgiving Day and Friday with high pressure nearby. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and are expected to arrive Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...JDM

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