Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172030 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 430 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered north of the region tonight. Hurricane Jose will lift northward off the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coasts Monday and Tuesday, and then depart to the northeast off the Southern New England coast Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Broad weak high pressure extends from the Ohio Valley across the Ern Great Lakes through New England this aftn. A coastal front is situated in vicinity Ern NC/SE VA and hurricane Jose is lifting nwd well E of the Carolina coast. The coastal boundary is the focus for isolated to scattered showers are situated over SE VA/NC NC. Temperatures this aftn range from the upper 70s to mid 80s under a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky. The boundary will remain in vicinity of the coast tonight. However, showers should dissipate early this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Some partial clearing is possible this evening, mainly W, and this will result in the potential for patchy fog over the Piedmont and interior S- central VA. Sky cover remains mostly cloudy along the coast tonight. Forecast low temperatures range from the mid 60s for most of the area to the upper 60s to around 70F SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Jose is expected to lift nwd off the Carolina Coast Monday. There is not much forcing for pcpn. However, the coastal boundary will linger over the area supporting 20-30% PoPs from the wrn shore of the Bay to the Atlantic coast. Sky cover will range from partly sunny inland to mostly cloudy along the coast with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s at the coast to the low to locally mid 80s farther inland. will continue along the coast Sunday night into Monday under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A NNE wind will increase Monday night with the current forecast showing speeds of 20-25 mph at the immediate coast with gusts up to 35 mph possible. The deepest moisture nears the coast later Monday night into midday Tuesday, with the best potential for showers (40-50%) along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore, bordered by 20-40% from the wrn shore of the Bay through far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Mostly cloudy Monday night with lows in the 60s. Jose is progged to push nwd off the VA Capes Tuesday. The low- level flow will gradually become NNW through the day with drier mid-level air overspreading the area by the aftn. Remaining breezy over the Ern shore through at least midday Tuesday with a 15-25 mph NNW wind gusting up to 30-35 mph, and potentially up to 40 mph on the immediate Atlantic coast. Decreasing clouds from W-E with highs in the upper 70s at the coast to the low/mid 80s inland. Weak high pressure builds into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Remaining mild in the wake of Jose with lows Tuesday night in the 60s, and then warming into the low/mid 80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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After Jose moves northeast, high pressure at the surface and aloft will build across the Ohio Valley into New England. Guidance suggests that the area will keep under weak north to northwest low level flow. As such, the Thu-Sat period should remain dry and mild with high temperatures each day into the 80s Thu/Friday cooling to around 80 for the weekend. The ECMWF has now shown for several runs that the remnmants of Jose may curve westward back into the middle Atlantic by Sunday. With that, have opted to include small chance PoPs for Sunday across the entire region.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deep NE flow bringing MVFR clouds to TAF sites, especially ORF/ECG. Cloud ceilings have been very difficult to improve as overall pattern of increasing clouds are moving north. Clouds moving onshore over the Eastern Shore may also decrease ceilings over SBY. Scattered showers also affecting NE NC and portions of the Hampton Road due to a coastal boundary. Conditions near ORF/ECG will be hard to improve during the afternoon/evening hours. Other TAF sites will likely have some tempo sct/bkn cloud at or below 3000ft. Guidance suggests fog/stratus developing again overnight but think the stratus will be more prominent as gradient winds increase overnight near the coast. However there is a good chance of IFR fog over RIC and the Piedmont area during the overnight and early morning. Outlook: Hurricane Jose will lift nwd well off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight through Tuesday with chc of showers along the coast. NE wind increases to 10-15kt along the coast Monday, and increases further to 15-25kt Monday night into Tuesday. Jose departs to the NE off the srn New England coast Wed/Thurs as weak high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE...
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No major changes to the marine forecast. Will continue with the tropical storm watch for the Atlantic coastal waters as Jose stays well east of the region. Guidance is in good agreement in showing the wind field of Jose expanding as it moves north. As such, the idea of at least gusts to tropical storm force seem reasonable for the Atlantic coastal waters especially north of Chincoteague. In addition, swell associated with Jose will be spreading into the area through Mon night with the highest waves up to 13 feet Mon night. As for the bay and rivers, will maintain the small craft advisory starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. As of right now, see no indication that tropical storm force conditions will occur in the bay, although there may be a few gusts of 30 to 35 kt late Mon night into Tuesday due to the northerly flow down the spine of the bay. Conditions quiet down after Tuesday as Jose moves well northeast of the area.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Due to the ongoing spring tide and the somewhat elevated water levels in the bay due to the increasing swell at the entrance, we may see a brief period of minor flooding at Mobjack tonight. Otherwise, as Jose moves north, expect the northeast wind to increase starting tomorrow into tomorrow night. May see some minor flooding at our coastal gages starting late Monday and continuing into Tuesday. In addition, the lower bay may also see some minor coastal flooding Monday night into Tuesday. At this time, given that the winds will be backing to the north and eventually to the northwest, do not expect any moderate coastal flooding as some of the surge guidance suggests. Probably the main issue with this event may be some beach erosion due to the high surf combined with the elevated water levels across the ocean. Speaking of high waves, willc continue with high risk of rip currents on Monday and probably on Tuesday as well. In addition, a high surf advy will likely be needed starting Monday night.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...MRD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MRD

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