Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260619 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 219 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY OFF THE EASTERN SHORE. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT FOR MORE THAN ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL CAP POPS AT 20%. OTW...DRY OVERNIGHT WITH A MSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY (MOSTLY CLOUDY SE). MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT FINALLY STARTS NUDGING OFFSHORE WED AS STRONG SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. FM WED TO FRI...THE FRNT WILL WEAKEN AS THE HI BCMS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC BY THU NGT/FRI. AS SUCH...LINGERING POPS OVER FAR SE AREAS WILL DECREASE EACH DAY (FM 20-30% WED TO 20% THU TO BLO 20% FRI). REMAINDER OF FA REMAINS DRY THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OTWS...EXPECT PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PD...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC SAT INTO SUN XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES...AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES (BY SUN).WILL BRING HIGHER POPS (25-40%) INTO THE FA...THEN WILL CONT W/ LINGER MNLY MNLY DIURNAL POPS ACRS THE FA MON AND TUE. TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE PD. HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE 60S TO ARND 70F. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1300Z THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INVOF A STALLED SFC COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS NE NC...PARTICULARLY TAF SITE KECG. MVFR CIGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTN. SHOWERS COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT GETS SHUNTED SEWD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF SHOWER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES.
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&& .MARINE... FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED NR THE SRN CSTL WTRS THIS AFTN...WILL BE GENERALLY STATIONARY/DIFFUSE INTO WED MRNG. ANOTHER PUSH/BNDRY FM THE NNW XPCD TO FINALLY CLR THE CSTL WTRS WED AFTN...STOPPING INVOF CSTL NC FOR THU. SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS BY LT WEEK. CONDS TO RMN SUB-SCA UFN W/ WNDS VRB AOB 15 KT THROUGH WED MRNG...THEN NNE THEREAFTER INTO THU. THU INTO THE WKND...WNDS BECOME ONSHORE...RMNG AOB 15 KT ON AVG. SOME BUILDUP OF SEAS PSBL...ESP ON THE SRN OCN WTRS FRI INTO THE WKND DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WNDS. OTRW...WAVES 1-2FT/SEAS 2-3FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...ALB

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