Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141528 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1028 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary...resulting in periods of unsettled weather through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cold front which crossed the FA from the N on Fri has moved into SC as of early this morning. Cooler air continues to settle S into the region as sfc hi pres builds ewd from the Great Lakes. Weak system aloft entering the region from the W resulting in an area of mainly light pcpn. Threat for a period of FZRA invof far NNE areas of FA through early/mid morning appears to be lower as temperatures have struggled to drop into the 30s overnight. Dewpoints in the 20s are currently found over nrn and central areas of FA and if pcpn were to become heavy enough...temperatures may fall to the lower 30s. However...doesn`t appear that pcpn will be heavy enough for that to occur. Partial thickness scheme does suggest potential for IP along-N of a LKU-OXB line through about 15Z/14. Otherwise...will have highest PoPs (40-70%) - p-type RA - across nrn portions of FA through today...15-30% farther S. Mostly cloudy today...w/ high temperatures from the u30s N to the m40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak sfc lo pres develops offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Sat night as S/W digs over the Delmarva. Will linger 40-60% POPS along the coast this eve as the moisture plume begins to push offshore and swd. Lows in the l-m30s N to around 40F far S. Latest guidance continues to push bulk of moisture S of the regoin tonight into Sun. Best chances at significant drying/clearing expected to be across the ern portions of the FA through Sun...while considerable cloudiness remains over the rest of the FA. Highs Sun in the l40s NE to the u40s SW. Models begin to spread moisture back NNE into the region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 20-40% PoPs across the piedmont to I 95 late Sun night...lowering through the day Mon. Lows Sun night in the l30s N to the u30s S. Highs Mon in the l/m40s N to around 50F far SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended period. At this time, will go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for showers. Best chcs will be Wed/Wed night and again on Fri. Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Mon night, and ranging fm the lower 40s to lower 50s Tue night, Wed night, and Thu night. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 14z...Strong high pressure ridge extending from southern New England to North Carolina will weaken over the area through tonight. Light precipitation this morning will taper off toward midday southern portions but continue in the SBY area through the afternoon. This will be in the form of rain except for possible sleet at SBY this morning. Onshore flow will increase low level moisture and lower ceilings through the TAF period. Expect conditions to lower to IFR this evening and overnight. OUTLOOK...The lower ceilings will linger into Sunday morning. Conditions slowly improve later Sunday and Monday as the cold air erodes and southerly flow begins. There will be a small chance for showers Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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SCA in effect for the coastal waters south of Parramore Island was extended til 4 PM EST. Seas have stayed up or increased slightly this morning with moderate northeast winds. Wavewatch has seas diminishing during the day and expect this trend to catch up and bring seas below 5 feet by late this afternoon. Previous Discussion... SCA headlines continue for the Mouth of the Bay, Sound, and southern coastal waters with sub-SCA conditions currently over the other waters. NE flow up to 15-20 kt over the Mouth of the Bay and Sound will end around 7 am, while 5 ft seas out 20 nm will linger until midday over the coastal waters. Marine conditions then improve this aftn into tonight as strong sfc high pressure currently over the NE states weakens and slides offshore. A weak northerly surge is expected Sun morning but winds are expected to stay just below SCA criteria. A warm front lifts north through the area late Mon, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the region during the middle of next week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS/LSA

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