Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260621 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 121 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO FEATURE A MOIST FRONTAL BAND IN PLACE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST, ASCENDING THE SE COAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. ALOFT, A STRONG TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY...WITH A 160KT JET DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. STRONG LIFT IN THE RRQ OF THE JET IS IN VICINITY OF THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND...WHICH IS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE GULF...NE ACROSS N FL...AND OVER THE GULF STREAM. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1011MB LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC NOW SHOWING BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH ALONG A LINE FROM TLH TO CLT TO RDU THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LGT RAIN/DZ PERSISTING ALONG THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE LOCAL AREA INVOF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AKQ CWA OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES FURTHER ORGANIZED AND BEGINS TO TRACK NE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY PERSISTENT/STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID-LEVEL (700MB) FRONTOGENESIS WHICH WILL ALSO SLOWLY LIFTS N INTO WED MORNING. RUC/HRRR STILL DEPICTING ~1008MB SFC LOW REACHING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z WED, AND SHOULD SEE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THERMAL PROFILE THAT EASILY SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN FACT, WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED MINIMA UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STABLE/RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR SE. FARTHER INLAND, STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE WED MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. WHILE CAA REMAINS RATHER WEAK...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME, SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE INCH OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...WITH THE BORDERING COUNTIES EXPERIENCING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED SURFACES, SO NO ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY WANES. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2.0-2.5IN OVER SE VA/NE NC...TO 1.0-1.5IN ELSEWHERE. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. LOCALIZED LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TUE MORNG. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING NW OF KRIC. GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AVERAGE 10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR -SN OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY- KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE EAST CST OVERNIGHT INTO WED NGT. DATA SUPPORTIVE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVR CSTL WTRS (UP TO 40 KTS) AND SRN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND (35 KTS) WED. SO...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WRNGS FOR THESE AREAS DURING WED...WITH STRONG SCA`S ACRS THE MIDDLE BAY AND RIVERS. WINDS N-NE TO START THEN SWITCH TO NW...AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED NGT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE WTRS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT ALLOWS SEAS TO BLD TO BTWN 6-10 FT (HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM). SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES WED NGT...AS THE LO QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THU MORNG BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG BEHIND UPR LVL LO THAT EXITS OFF THE CST. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA FRI AFTN/NGT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT TO THE ATLC WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY DUE TO STRONG NNE FLOW WED MORNING LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER WED/WED NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. && .EQUIPMENT... THE ASOS AT SALISBURY MD IS FIXED AND WE ARE RECEIVING OBSERVATIONS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630- 631. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM/JEF MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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