-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT
SURE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT WENT AHEAD AND
DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN
INFLUENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS
ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE
LOW 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS
FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP
OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ