Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271816 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 216 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY...AND SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SUMMER-LIKE CONDS CONTG. RIDGE SFC-ALOFT FM WRN ATLC TO NR THE MDATLC CST RMNS STRONG...BUT HAS WEAKENED...SHIFTED JUST E OF ITS LOCATION OF PREVIOUS DAYS. SOMEWHAT DEEPER SSW FLO HAS LEAD TO INCRSD MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY MORE CLDNS ACRS THE FA THUS FAR TDA THAN IN PAST FEW. WK LEE TROUGH COMBINED W/ WK TROUGH ALOFT...INCRSD DEWPTS AND HEATING RESULTING IN A BIT HIGHER PTNTL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN INTO EVE HRS (MNLY INLAND FM THE CST). PTNTL FOR LCLLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WNDS W/ ANY STMS. WARM AGAIN WITH HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U80S...LOCALLY IN THE 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... LINGERING STMS THIS EVE DISSIPATE OVRNGT. WARM/HUMID AGN W/ LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO ARND 70F. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH ON THU WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE W WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SCT CONVECTION THU AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 40% POP FOR SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON THU. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS THU/FRI MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...XCPT 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AGAIN. POPS ON FRI SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AND FOCUS MORE WEST OF I-95 AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST AS SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ON AVG. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HI PRES HAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE NRN MID-ATLC CST THIS AFTN...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WAS RESULTING IN S-SW WINDS OF 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT IN SOME SPOTS. SCT TO BKN CU (4000-7000 FT) WAS OVR THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS OVR INLAND NE NC. ISLTD-WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNG AT RIC/SBY...OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CIGS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THAT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW/NRN COUNTIES ON THU...BEFORE WASHING OUT. MORE HI PRES SETS UP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST FRI THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW/N LATE SAT/SAT NGT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE SUBSIDING S-SW WINDS OVER THE WATER...DROPPING AOB 15 KT. WAVES AVG 2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SE CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER EVENING OF SCA CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT GRADIENT WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS (TUES NIGHT) MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. TEMP ADVECTION IS ALSO NEUTRAL. HAVE CAPPED WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT AS A RESULT...REMAINING SUB-SCA. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THURS AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SLY WINDS AVG 10-15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA THURS-FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...RELAXING THE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SELY THURS NIGHT-FRI...AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLY WINDS AOB 15 KT PERSIST OVER THE WATER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...REACHING THE WATERS SUN NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TMG MARINE...SAM

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