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277
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very hot
conditions to the region through the week. Low-end chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return through the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...

- Heat Advisories in effect for the entire forecast area today.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today, with more
  coverage than previous days. A few storms could be strong to
  severe.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have tried to develop in a few of
our western counties overnight, but have struggled to sustain
themselves. With minimal overnight convection, skies have clear for
the most part aside from some scattered upper level cirrus streaming
in from the east. Temperatures inland have dropped into the 70s,
while areas close to the coast have remained in the low 80s due to
the moderation of the airmass by the warmer water temperatures. Dew
points are in the low to mid 70s, which has hindered the development
of patchy fog that has been seen the past few nights.

The upper ridge that has been plaguing the area with an oppressive
heat wave the past few days will finally start to weaken today. As
this gradual weakening occurs, one last day of heat indices between
105-108 degrees is expected today, requiring a Heat Advisory for a
majority of the forecast area. The Heat Advisory has been expanded
to include the Eastern Shore as confidence increased that the area
would reach criteria. While not quite as hot, temperatures are still
expected to reach the lower to mid 90s which remains well above
normal for this time of year. One possible saving grace from the
heat today will be increased cloud cover in the afternoon as
scattered convection tries to develop. Storms will be similar in
nature to what we saw yesterday, which is slow moving with damaging
winds possible. A backdoor cold front well to our north will sag
southward today and move closer to the northern extent of our
forecast area. This boundary will provide more of a lifting
mechanism for storm development, so higher storm coverage is
expected today. Due to the strong surface heating expected, DCAPE
values will be be between roughly 1000-1600 J/kg which could produce
a few strong isolated downbursts within any convection that does
develop this afternoon and evening. As these storms decay, they will
shoot out outflows, which will act as an additional trigger for
convective development. SPC has a majority of the forecast area in a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather today, with damaging
wind gusts the main threat and isolated large hail possible. The
steering flow for these storms will be light which will likely allow
for slow storm motions, so isolated instances of locally heavy
rainfall are possible. WPC has placed all but SE VA and NE NC in a
Marginal ERO to account for the possibility of isolated flash-
flooding.

As daytime heating wanes this evening, convection will follow suit,
though a few stronger storms after sunset cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon.
  A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Backdoor cold front to bring some relief from the heat to the
  NE counties and MD Eastern Shore counties.

The backdoor cold front will continue to drop southwards through
Friday, finally settling across the MD Eastern Shore counties and
our northeast VA counties. While most of the forecast area will
still experience temperatures in the lower 90s, the front will bring
some relief to our NE counties and temperatures will be in the low
to mid 80s. Dew points will subtly drop as well, leading to slightly
less humid conditions in these areas. Heat indices will likely fall
within in the 95-103F range, so a Heat Advisory may not be needed
Friday. With the boundary lingering through Friday afternoon, this
will once again provide a subtle lifting mechanism for storm
development and afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms will be
possible. Some storms may once again be strong to severe, so SPC has
most of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on
Friday, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail remaining
the main threat. There also remains a threat for isolated instances
of flash flooding, so WPC has placed a majority of the forecast area
in a Marginal ERO on Friday. By Saturday, the front will start to
lift back to the north, so while afternoon/evening thunderstorms are
still possible, they will not be as high in coverage as Friday. With
the upper ridge still across the region, above normal temperatures
are expected again on Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Heat indices will range between 97-104F, though some areas could see
a brief period of 105F+ heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week.

- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for
  scattered storms.

The weakened upper ridge will remain across the area Sunday into
early next week, leading to the continuation of above normal
temperatures. While temperatures will not be quite as high as what
we saw this past week, highs will still reach the low to mid 90s
Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices between 98-103F. We will
continue to monitor any trends in the heat, as subtle differences in
the temperatures and dew points could lead to some areas reaching
Heat Advisory criteria. A cold front will approach the region on
Tuesday, with moisture pooling ahead of it and PWs approaching 2.0"+
later this weekend into early next week which may result in a heavy
rain threat. The unsettled weather pattern will continue, with
isolated to scattered convection each afternoon and evening Sunday
through Tuesday. The aforementioned front is progged to move through
Tuesday into Wednesday, though it looks like it might linger across
NE NC through Thursday, bringing higher rain chances to the southern
half of the forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. Confidence in
the exact placement of the front is low as it is well into the
extended forecast, so we will continue to fine tune our forecast as
this becomes more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 647 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through a majority of the 12z TAF period
outside of convection. Generally clear skies this morning
outside of FEW to SCT higher clouds. SCT CU (5000-6000 ft CIGs)
are expected to develop this afternoon with scattered storms
again developing across the region. Have maintained a PROB30 at
the RIC and SBY TAFs due to higher confidence in storms
impacting those terminals. Any storms taper off later in the
evening. IFR CIGs potentially move into SBY after ~03z Friday
as a backdoor cold front tries to settle south into the area.

Outlook: IFR CIGs potentially develop across northern portions
of the area late tonight into Friday morning as a backdoor cold
front drops into the area. VFR conditions are then primarily
expected later Friday into next week as the front lifts back
north. However, late afternoon/evening storms are possible
every day into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend.

Favorable marine conditions will continue through the weekend as
high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind direction
will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the land
heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the high
shifts offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend,
the synoptic winds become predominantly southerly areawide. Sea
breezes may still make an appearance near the shore in the afternoon
hours, which would shift the wind to the E or SE. A few wind gusts
to 20-25 kt are possible by the weekend or early next week, but
predictability is low at this range given the effects of potential
convection. Isolated to scattered storms are also possible in the
afternoons and evenings today through the weekend, which could bring
strong wind gusts to the waters, with winds and seas higher within
any convection.

Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing to 2-3
ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less
through the period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-
     509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...AJB/SW