-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200153
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
953 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North
Carolina overnight and will remain nearly stationary through
Wednesday. The boundary dissipates late in the week allowing
the Bermuda high to build back in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Severe tstm watch has been cancelled, as severe threat rapidly
diminishing and transitioning now to primarily a heavy rain
threat. Potential for localized flooding overnight with training
storms in low MBE environment (SW low level jet nearly the same
in speed and direction to 500-700 mb flow). The greatest concern
will be across south central/SE VA (including VA ern shore) and
NE NC. Will maintain 60-80% or higher PoPs through 06Z (and
lingering longer far SE). Lowering PoPs for central VA and
points NW. Otherwise...becoming partly cloudy NW and remaining
mostly cloudy elsewhere. Lows around 70F NW to the mid 70s SE.

Mention of heavy rain will continues in the HWO except across
the NW where bulk of rain has ended.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak/residual frontal boundary lingers invof SE VA-NE NC Tue
into Wed as trough aloft is slow to track through New England
and strong high pres remains in the WSW Atlantic. By Wed night
into Thu...flow aloft become a bit more NW and gradually shifts
the moisture axis SE of the local area. Another surge of
moisture is possible by Thu afternoon as high pres off the SE
CONUS begins to reassert itself (into the mid Atlantic region).

The upcoming conditions for Tue-Wed invof SE VA-NE NC
potentially leads to extensive coverage of SHRAS/tstms and a
heightened heavy rain threat. QPF amounts expected to avg 1-2
inches with 3+ inches psbl in areas that do get training storms.
Low confidence in any 2nd-3rd period flood watch (at this time
of year esp)...but something to keep in mind going forward.
Elsewhere...VRB clouds-partly cloudy w/ decreasing PoPs SE- NW.
There will be a slight change in airmass over much of the area
into mid week (and some dropped in dewpoints/humidity). Highs
both days in the l-m80s...75-80F at the beaches. Lows Tue night
in the l-m60s NW to l70s SE.

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy Thu w/ a lo prob for SHRAs/tstms (by
afternoon)...esp SW portions of FA. Highs ranging through the
80s...75-80F along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Anomalously moist air mass remains over the region through the
upcoming weekend as a series of weakening cold fronts approach
from the west. The fronts are expected to stall along the
western slopes of the mountains, but pressure falls on the lee
side of the Appalachians will induce lee/thermal troughing over
central Virginia. Several disturbances progged to track across
the region, resulting in scattered to numerous diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Have retained
above-climo POPs. Near seasonable normal temperatures forecast
Friday through Sunday with highs generally in the upper 80`s to
low 90`s (cooler along the coast) and lows in the upper 60`s to
low 70`s.

Medium range guidance digs an upper level trough over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday/Sunday night and into the eastern US
Monday/Monday night. While there are still spatial and timing
differences in the guidance, an associated (stronger) cold front
progged to impact the region Sunday night or Monday. Given the
strength of the upper trough, expect the front to clear the
local area Monday night as surface high pressure builds over the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A diffuse cold front was situated over central Virginia and will
stall over southeast Virginia overnight and into Tuesday. Widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms were ahead of the front and will
continue to affect the TAF sites...slowly improving from the west.
The threat for severe thunderstorms has practically ended. Winds
will continue from the southwest with gusty winds near any
thunderstorms. Expect VFR and occasional MVFR conditions overnight.

On Tuesday...showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over
southeast portions mainly affecting ORF and ECG. VFR conditions are
expected except for some MVFR with the precipitation. Showers in the
southeast will taper off Wednesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms returns Friday and Saturday ahead of a slow moving
cold front with weak disturbances aloft tracking across the area.
MVFR and patchy IFR stratus will be possible each morning for a few
hours after sunrise.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to the headlines this afternoon. A cold front
approaches the region from the NW this evening and pushes into the
area late tonight. S-SW winds 15-25 kt will continue into the
evening before gradually diminishing toward daybreak Tuesday.
The cold front is expected to move over the waters Tuesday morning
around daybreak then stall along the Carolina into Wednesday. SW
winds diminish below 15kt all waters around daybreak, however SCA
flags for coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light will continue
through the morning due to seas being slower to subside below 5ft.
For Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week, sub-SCA SW winds
will prevail. Seas 2-4ft. Waves 1-2ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM