Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160940 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 440 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z THIS MRNG. PREV DISCUSSION: SFC LO PRES TRACKING INTO THE WRN LAKES STATES ATTM...W/ TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH THE OH/TN VLYS AND ON SSW TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. SCT SHRAS AHEAD OF THE FNT HEADING INTO THE MTNS ATTM. LO LVL WAA E OF THE MTNS CONTG INTO THIS AFTN...HAS RESULTED IN A MILDER OVRNGT/EARLY MRNG...AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING INTO 50S TODAY. PTCHY FOG IS OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH NOR RESTRICTING VSBYS TOO MUCH FOR MENTION ATTM. WILL HAVE INCRSG CLDNS W...AND PSNY THIS MRNG THEN INCRSG CLDNS E. CDFNT ARRIVES IN THE W LT MRNG THEN CONTS E ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRAS. TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE RMNS SHALLOW (GENLY CONFINED TO 10KFT. ALSO...ONLY VERY MODEST RISE IN DEWPTS (INTO THE 40S) XPCD TODAY SO INSTABILITY LIMITED FOR ANY T. WILL HAVE POPS 60-70% AS FNT PUSHES ACRS FA. QPF MNLY AVGG 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST ARND LT THIS EVE...WITH SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. WED THRU THU...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW/WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AS SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS IN FM THE NW. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. COLD AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. COOLER ON THU UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LLVL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AS 1024+MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER FRIDAY WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY BY LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL BOTH TAKING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SAT NIGHT TO A POSITION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA/OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/15 GFS HAS ALSO GONE WITH A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE PUSHED POP INTO LIKELY RANGE WITH BOTH THE ANALOGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT PRECIP OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED, THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN TO END AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH LTL COLD AIR TO WORK WITH AND WITH UPPER FLOW SEEMINGLY FAVORING A QUICK END TO PCPN, ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX IMPACTS OVER AKQ CWA APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. OBVIOUSLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL 5-6 DAYS OFF, STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL FLUCTUATIONS. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHRA THIS AFTN/EVENING. MVFR CIG/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SE/S AND WILL REMAIN S TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS TURN TO THE W/WNW POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUE TDA WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. WINDS WILL BE S/SE AT 10-15 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH WINDS BCMG WLY POST-FRNTAL...UP TO 15 KT OVR THE BAY AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W/NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH GENERALLY NW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CAA SURGE WED NIGHT MAY BRING WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR NRN WTRS...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BLO CRITERIA WITH SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...ALB/MAM AVIATION...MAS/DAP MARINE...MAS

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