Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220032 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 832 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeast and away from the mid Atlantic coast tonight. A trough of low pressure will then linger over the area Sunday and Monday. This trough will gradually move offshore Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Secondary/cstl lo pres exiting off the NE NC outer banks attm...and will cont to track ENE and away fm the cst through the ovrngt hrs. Bulk of the ra has now exited the cst...w/ spotty -ra contg invof the Ches bay/Delmarva and just off the immediate cst. Elsw...partial clearing has made some (gradual) progress into far WSW areas in fa so far this aftn...and that will try to cont a bit more to the E through the eve hrs. Problem will be the contd NNE lo lvl flo in wake of departing lo pres that will be lingering fm cntrl VA to the E. Additionally...upr lvl lo pres will be diving to the SE fm ern OH/wrn PA. The combination of that system and the contd cyclonic lo lvl NNE flo likely to keep widespread cldns and psbly even spotty -ra ovr much of the fa. Lo temps fm the l50s NW to the u50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upr lvl lo pres will swirl invof fa Sun into Mon mrng...then begin to sloly push to the E and offshore lt Mon through Tue. The wx now occurring acrs the ern OH vly and wrn PA is the wx that is xpcd here Sun into Mon (widespread cldns...w/ sct-likely -ra). Moisture will be slo to push to the cst fm Mon aftn into Tue. So...another 2 days of (much) blo normal temps...POPS avgg 30-60% and considerable cldns. On Tue (esp by aftn)...xpcg a return to partly sunny/warmer conds (esp inland)...not quite sure conds improve too quickly nr the cst - esp on the Delmarva (before eve). Highs Sun fm the l-m60s N and cntrl areas to m-u60s S. Lows Sun ngt in the l-m50s. Highs Mon in the u60s to l70s. Lows Mon ngt mnly in the m50s. Highs Tue 75-80F inland to 70-75F at the cst. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure settles off the Southeast Coast as upper level ridging resides directly over the entire East Coast Tue night through Thu. Developing sw flow Thu night/Fri will likely open the door for increasing humidity and rain/thunderstorm chances Thu/Fri aftns as conditions become increasingly unstable. Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Wed-Fri. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal Wed/Thu night. Seasonal lows Tue night in the mid 50s nw to lower 60s se. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A moist and unsettled pattern will continue at the TAF sites during the 00z TAF period. Low pressure was slowly deepening off the Mid Atlantic Coast and moving to the northeast as a general area of low pressure from West Virginia to the Carolinas was filling. An upper level low pressure system over northern Ohio will deepen and reach eastern North Carolina by Monday. The upper low and associated trough will slide off the coast by Tuesday. As of 00Z...IFR conditions were present at all the TAF sites except ECG. These mainly due to low ceilings though SBY also had an IFR visibility. Expect conditions to deteriorate overnight with ceilings mainly lowering to LIFR and visbilities to IFR except MVFR at ORF and ECG. Kept SBY no lower than 1 mile but it could easily fall below that overnight. Conditions improve during the day Sunday. Have gone on the optimistic side of the MOS guidance as recent experience has indicated that the models are too low with the ceilings when the center of an upper low becomes centered over the area which will be the case on Sunday (and Monday). Have most of the TAF sites improving to MVFR during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...The chance for showers continues Sunday night and Monday. Flight conditions will slowly improve with VFR/MVFR expected outside of some patchy IFR fog early Monday morning. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic States with mainly dry weather late Tuesday through Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... SCA flags cancelled for Rappahannock River and portions of Ches Bay. Sfc low pressure located about 50-70 miles east of the VA/NC border late this aftn. The low will continue to track ne tonight as an upper trough swings into the Mid Atlantic Region...allowing ne winds aob 15kt and onshore swell to persist during this time. Seas currently 6-8ft srn waters/4-6ft nrn waters. As the low tracks newd...seas will build to 6-8ft and subside to 4-5ft south. Waves on Ches Bay averaging 2-3ft with up to 4ft in the mouth of the Bay due to 4-5ft onshore swell. SCA flags remain in effect for the Bay through 600 am Sun morning. See next paragraph regarding SCA flags for coastal waters. The trough moves overhead on Sun and becomes a closed low spinning over the region. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary from the exiting sfc low will stall along the Carolina coast and another sfc low is expected to develop invof Cape Hatteras. This feature is expected to get pulled nwd just off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun through Mon before moving north near the srn New England coast Mon night into Tue. A brief lull in ne-e winds aob 15kt anticipated Sun with winds becoming n 15-20kt Bay/Sound/coastal waters (gusts to around 25kt coastal waters) after midnight Sun night through most of Mon with another round of SCA conditions expected. Seas on Sun begin at 3-4ft srn waters/4-6ft nrn waters and then average 4-5ft all coastal waters by late Sun aftn...only to build to 5-7ft srn coastal waters/4-6ft nrn coastal waters after midnight Sun night into Mon. SCA flags have been extended for all coastal waters through early Mon evening although they will likely be extended into Tue for seas above 5ft. Anticipated SCA flags for Bay/Sound will need to be hoisted during a later forecast pkg issuance time as they will extend into the 4th period. Conditions quiet down Tue night through Thu as high pressure at the sfc and aloft build over the region. Generally sw winds around 10kt or less should be anticipated. Seas average 2-3ft Tue night and then 2ft Wed/Thu. Waves average 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD

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