-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040945
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS PULLED OFF THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADING THE REGION. ALL
SN OR SN/IP HAS ENDED...AND HENCE WINTER HEADLINES HAVE ALL BEEN
CANCELLED. SEE PNSAKQ FOR SNOWFALL/SLEET TOTALS.

DESPITE WINTER HEADLINES COMING TO AN END...UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. AN
SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

1032MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SE VA/NE NC OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL NNE FLOW
PERSISTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE OVERNIGHT...DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INLAND...TO LOW/MID 20S RIGHT
NEAR THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC. ALL-TIME RECORD MARCH LOW
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
POTENTIAL DAILY RECORDS TUE).

MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NGT EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER FAR SE VA AND NR THE NC CST. SEVERAL OF THE
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SE VA AND NE NC LT TUE NGT AND WED MRNG
(LGT/SPOTTY FREEZING RA INLAND?). KEPT POPS OF 20-30% FAR SE VA/NE
NC. CLOUDS INCRS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WED WITH AN INCRS
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPS TUE RANGE FROM 30 ON THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE TO THE
M/U30S OVER INLAND VA AND NE NC. TUES NGT WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH
LOWS FROM THE MID TO UPR TEENS W OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE L30S AT
THE COAST. HI TEMPS WED IN THE L/M40S.

BY THU...MDL DIFFERENCES EXIST...W/ THE NAM KEEPING ANY SFC LO PRES
AND PCPN OFF THE CST...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE SGFNT AREA OF
LO PRES NR THE CSTL CAROLINAS...PTNTL SPREADING PCPN NNE (AND
PRIMARILY ACRS SE VA/NE NC) ON THU. CONFINED CHC POPS TO AREAS OF
SE VA/NE NC FOR NOW. LO TEMPS IN THE M/U20S INLAND...TO M/U30S NR
THE CST. HI TEMPS THU IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO THE M/U40S NR THE
CST IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SE STATES. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT UPPER JET WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE/UVM WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST BUT ONSHORE H85 FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS SOUTH
AND EAST OF RICHMOND WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S NW TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
COAST...SO MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL VA WITH MOSTLY RAIN
IN THE SE AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT AS WLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE
STATES...RIDGING NWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
SPRING LIKE TEMPS TO FINALLY RETURN SAT WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY EARLY SAT...DIGGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LATE SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
REGION SAT NIGHT-SUN TIME FRAME. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE MODELS WRT TO THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BTWN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ALSO BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE (WLY
FLOW) AND DYNAMICS (SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA). MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUD COVER (UPPER
30S-LOW 40S) AND WARM TEMPS SUN (MID-UPPER 60S) WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP ALL LIQUID. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
CROSSES THE REGION WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S (POSSIBLY WARMER) MONDAY. THE NEXT SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH
MUCH UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IVOF ECG
AND POINTS S/SE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY N-NE WINDS ACROSS SE
TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK: CLOUDS INCREASE/LOWER ACROSS ORF/ECG BY EVENING AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
CONTINUES MOIST NE FLOW. RETAINED SOME DZ MENTION AT ECG AND
ORF...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME LIGHT SHRAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH. OTHERWISE, DRY AND PREDOMINATELY VFR AT
SBY/RIC/PHF THROUGH THU. PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY W/DIMINISHING
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER THU/FRIDAY AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STEAM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. CLEARING LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W/NW.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ONGOING STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WATERS ON GUSTY N-NE FLOW. OBS
REFLECT A SLOW BUT STEADY DOWNWARD TREND THIS MORNING...SO WHILE
SCA REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT FOR THE
YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK/UPPER JAMES...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SCA TO BE
DROPPED NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. LATEST GUIDANCE DID KEEP WINDS
IN 15-20KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF
THE JAMES...SO HELD ON TO SCA THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCA WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MARGINAL BY AFTN AS GRADIENT SLACKENS...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO KEEP HEADLINE IN PLACE. OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS, WAVEWATCH STILL RUNNING A BIT BEHIND LATEST
OBS...AND BUMPED UP SEAS A BIT THROUGH THE AFTN CLOSER TO NWPS.
WAVES 4-5 FT DIMINISH A BIT IN LWR CHES BAY BY AFTN...WITH SEAS
OF 5-9 FT (HIGHEST SOUTHERN WATERS) DIMINISHING BELOW SCA BY
EVENING FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST, WHERE SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED THE LONGEST.

GRADIENT SLACKENS TONIGHT, WITH MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AS GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT. SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS
FINALLY EDGE BELOW SCA BY LATE TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
PCPN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/ERY WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL TROUGH. OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS
WED/WED NIGHT. SUB-SCA N-NE WINDS ON WED INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THU IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (LOW PRESURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST). TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION
ATTM, BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG SCA APPEARING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY LATER THU/FRIDAY. AS WITH THIS PAST EVENT, IN
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF N-NE FLOW, WAVE WATCH IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. ACCORDINGLY, BUMPED UP ABOVE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DURING
THU-FRI PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN SOME RECORDS FOR TUE (MARCH 4TH)

             RECORD LOW MAX      RECORD LOW MIN
RICHMOND        32 IN 1960          10 IN 2009
NORFOLK         35 IN 1960          16 IN 1943
SALISBURY       27 IN 1960           1 IN 2009

ALL OF THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES LISTED MATCH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT EACH OF THE
RESPECTIVE LOCATIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ632>634-638-650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...