Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162034 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT WENT AHEAD AND DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW. OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER) IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16: RIC...45 (1929) ORF...46 (1935) SBY...45 (1935) ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) RECORD LOWS THU 4/17: RIC...31 (1949) ORF...34 (1875) SBY...26 (2008) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049- 060>083-085-087>089-092. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652- 654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...AKQ

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