Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230800 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region through mid week...bringing in a drier and more seasonable air mass to the area. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week. A cold front drops into the area Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure remains over the region today, resulting in onshore flow and cool/pleasant temperatures for late August. 850Mb temps generally between 12-14C (roughly -1 standard deviations), translating to highs generally in the upper 70`s to low 80`s near the coast to the mid 80`s inland. Less humidity with dewpoints in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. A weak boundary dropping over the Delmarva this morning is expected to mix dewpoints into the low 50`s for the Maryland Eastern Shore. Sky averages partly cloudy west of the Bay thanks to afternoon cumulus. Surface winds generally east to northeast 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts to 20 mph along the coast. High pressure remains over the region tonight, with a clearing sky. The coolest temperatures in a few months are forecast tonight, with lows in the upper 50`s to low 60`s inland to mid 60`s near the coast. Shortwave lifting across the Ohio Valley late tonight expected to spread some mid level clouds over the Piedmont late, which may limit radiational cooling, and perhaps keep temps in the low to mid 60`s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The surface high centers off the Northeast coast Wednesday and Thursday, but remains ridged over the forecast area. An upper level ridge amplifies over the Southeast. Winds remain onshore Wednesday, with only slightly moderating thicknesses and temperatures. Highs generally in the low 80`s near the coast to mid 80`s inland. Humidity levels remain comfortable with dewpoints in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. Higher resolution guidance still hinting at a weak inverted trough and associated moisture pushing onshore Wednesday afternoon. Best chances for measurable precipitation expected south of the Albemarle Sound, but will spread slight chance POP`s along the far southeast coastal areas. Otherwise, dry with afternoon cumulus west of the Bay again. Partly to mostly cloudy southeast. Surface winds become southerly Wednesday night, resulting in warming dewpoints and lows in the low to mid 60`s. Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains ahead of an approaching cold front will result in a lee/thermal trough Thursday. Even with dewpoints warming into the mid to upper 60`s, moisture will remain limited. Dry conditions prevail, but temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80`s (cooler along the coast) with a south winds of 5 to 10 mph. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Benign and dry conditions are expected to prevail late this week through the weekend into early next week as a mid/upper level anticyclone becomes anchored over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A shortwave trough is progged to push across the Northeast Thursday night, with a trailing moisture starved front approaching the local area from the northwest Friday. Hot and increasingly humid conditions are expected ahead of this boundary Friday. 850mb temperatures of 19-21C across the area supports highs in the low/mid 90s away from the coast, with upper 80s at the immediate coast. PoPs will be less then 15% as there is minimal moisture with the front and anticyclonic flow aloft. Light onshore flow in the wake of the front will lower highs slightly Saturday through Monday. However, readings should still range from the mid 80s at the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Increased humidity and light flow could help trigger aftn sea-breeze showers/tstms Saturday through Monday, although any activity should be very isolated with limited moisture and strong anticyclonic flow aloft. Lows through the period average in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure/fair weather prevails over the region this morning. The result is VFR conditions and calm winds at the TAF sites. Expect this trend to continue through early morning, with perhaps a few mid level clouds moving into RIC and ORF/ECG toward daybreak. High pressure and VFR conditions persist through the day. Expect some late morning and afternoon cu west of the Bay with decks 4-6k ft AGL. Otherwise, northeast winds at or below 10 knots. Maybe a few gusts to 18-20 kt near the coast. High pressure and dry weather prevail through the rest of the work week. && .MARINE... High pressure will gradually slide off the NJ coast today and tonight with a 10-15kt ne wind diminishing to 5-10kt this aftn into tonight. The high shifts offshore Wednesday into Thursday with the wind becoming se then s and remaining aob 15kt. The wind becomes sw aob 15kt Thursday night into Friday as a weak front approaches from the northwest. This front drops through the area Friday night into Saturday, with the wind becoming ne at 5-10kt. Seas average 2- 3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to an azimuth motor failure, the KAKQ 88D radar will be out of service through possibly this afternoon before a return to service. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAS/SAM MARINE...AJZ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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