Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170528 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 128 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MID-EVENING GOES WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, WITH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME SCT CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NC JUST SOUTH OF KRDU. AT THE SURFACE, ~1020MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN OH VLY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE NOTED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHRA OVER CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE PENINSULA IN SOME SHALLOW CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SHRAS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. HAVE RETAINED INHERITED LOW POPS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING IN THE GRIDS/DIGITAL DB. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM/DAP MARINE...TMG

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