Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200747 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front lifts back north and across the region this morning. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight...then pushes across the local area late Friday. The front stalls near or just south of the local area Friday night through Sunday as low pressure rides along the front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A diffuse warm front lifts north of the area this morning with warmer/more humid SW flow in place by this afternoon. Some low stratus and patchy fog will impact the region this morning (worst across the Piedmont) and should linger through 9-11am or so before breaking. Partly sunny this afternoon. Have a slight chc to low chc PoPs for an isold shower/tstm this aftn due to the development of a weak lee/sfc trough. Highs from the 70s Eastern Shore and along the immediate coast to the low/mid 80s west of the Ches Bay.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Other than an isold shower/tstm with the sfc trough pushing east, expecting dry/warm conditions tonight. Lows in the 60s. SW winds and more sunshine in advance of an approaching cold front will help boost temps into the low/mid 80s on Fri. Accompanying the front will be a chance of shwrs/tstms Fri aftn/eve. Have 30-50% PoPs most areas. SPC currently has south- central VA in a marginal risk of severe storms. After that, a good amount of uncertainty develops as to just how far south the frontal boundary is able to push by Friday night into Saturday. Consensus in the models at this point stalls the front right along the VA/NC border with low pressure developing along the front and pushing eastward from the TN valley late Sat. This will result in a continued chance of pcpn Fri night into Saturday with increasing PoPs by late Sat. Will have 30-50% PoPs most areas Friday night (highest south), then increasing PoPs to 40-60% along/west of I-95 Sat aftn. SPC currently has our NC counties in a marginal risk of severe storms on Sat (basically along/south of where the stalled front locates). If the front stalls farther north than expected, then there would be a greater risk of strong storms across southern VA. Highs on Sat will range from the mid 60s north to the mid 70s NE NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Latest 20/00z models continue to depict unsettled conditions for at least the first portion of the long term/Sat night through Mon. Potent system gathers over the Tennessee Valley Saturday night and slowly lifts ENE across NC or far southern VA Sunday into Sunday night bringing widespread rain (some heavy), with tstms possible for mainly southern/SE portions of the area. PoPs have been increased to 70-75% N/NW late Saturday night as overrunning focuses well out ahead of the approaching boundary. Forcing is weaker across the S but will maintain 40-60% PoPs there. Sfc-based instability should remain S of the CWA Sat night/Sun morning, but models suggest there could be some elevated instability after 06Z over southern VA/northeast NC. Lows Sat night mainly in the 50s. For Sunday, as the sfc low tracks into northern NC or perhaps as far N as southern VA, the warm front will lift N/NW for awhile, before stalling as strong sfc high to the N will remain in place. As a result will have likely PoPs all areas. Highs Sunday will tend to show quite a large gradient, low 60s NW (perhaps upper 50s), with 70-75 F S/SE (and potentially around 80 F for areas along the Albemarle Sound). Tstms will be most likely in the aftn/early evening in southeast VA and northeast NC. Low pressure lingers off the coast Monday with a chance for showers (mainly E/SE) along and ahead of the upper trough axis. Low pressure slowly pulls offshore by Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the NNW with drier conditions returning, but still likely enough moisture for continued chance PoPs southeast VA/northeast NC. Highs Mon and Tue will avg in the mid 60s along the cost and upper 60s/around 70 F well inland. Warmer for Wed as the low finally will be far removed from the region with highs mid 70s inland to 65-70 F near the coast.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR to localized IFR conditions exist across the Piedmont this morning (including KRIC) and should continue through 13-15z before improving. MVFR conditions are expected to spread east toward sunrise and may reach coastal areas for a few hours this morning (thru 13-15z). Conditions improve all areas by late morning when VFR will prevail. There could be an isold shower or tstm around this afternoon but confidence is not high enough to include in any TAF. OUTLOOK...High pressure locates off the Southeast Coast late today through Friday as a cold front pushes through the Great Lakes today and across the mountains Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening. The cold front tries to cross the area Friday night. As the front stalls around or just south of the local area...low pressure will move out of the southern Great Plains and eastward along the front. This will bring widespread precipitation late Saturday through Sunday night with periods of degraded aviation conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Latest obs reflect SSW flow ~10-15kt over the waters this morning. Analysis reveals an elongated area of weakening ~1028MB surface high pressure in place from the Canadian maritimes to offshore of the northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. Flow will remain steady at ~10 kt through mid-morning. Seas avg 3-4 ft, highest offshore. Waves will avg around 2 ft in the Bay, 1-2 ft in the rivers. Winds tick back upward again this afternoon, especially southern zones, as pressure gradient tightens courtesy of western Atlantic surface ridge and ahead of an approaching cool front to the NW, which will slowly edge toward the area from the NW late tonight and Fri. Front finally drops across the area Late Friday/Friday evening with high pressure building NNW of the region into Saturday. Model guidance coming into better agreement that frontal timing will be a bit slower than previously modeled, and have therefore slowed timing of frontal passage slightly into later Friday night. SW wind of ~10-15 kt will continue Friday and then shift to NNW Saturday morning behind the frontal passage. Low end/brief SCA conditions are possible with the frontal passage Friday night, with another brief window possible Saturday midday into Sat. afternoon with a shallow NNE CAA surge. While some disagreement persists, models are also coming into general agreement with respect to dropping the front north to south across the local area Saturday night, with an extended period of NNE winds...and likely SCA conditions...expected beginning Sunday afternoon and night, as a weak surface wave tracks along the boundary just to the south of the local area. SCA conditions should then persist into Monday night/early Tuesday as the system lingers along the coast and N/NE winds increasing up to ~20kt. Seas also build to 4-6 ft in onshore flow, waves 3-4 ft. Winds should gradually diminish Monday night and Tuesday as the low slowly pushes farther offshore.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...JDM/LKB AVIATION...JDM/LSA MARINE...MAM

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