Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172344 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 744 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles just off the southeast coast through tonight. The high slides southeast of the area through midweek...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area through the work week. A cold front crosses the region Friday, bringing near seasonable temperatures back to the region for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Warm afternoon across the region, with temperatures generally in the low 80`s (8-10 degrees above normal). Warm temperatures are the result of return flow on the backside of surface high pressure centered along the North Carolina coast and building heights aloft. Per latest RAP analysis, 850mb temperatures have warmed to around 13-14C. A surface trough over the Piedmont and a weak disturbance aloft has resulted in scattered to broken mid level clouds across the Piedmont into southern Virginia. Bumped sky cover up to partly sunny in those areas. Sunny to mostly sunny elsewhere. Warm temperatures aloft and limited moisture will keep the area dry. For tonight, high pressure slides offshore as low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes region. The combination of a drier boundary layer than last night and a southwest wind around 5 mph will limit fog/stratus tonight. Although, patchy fog still possible over the Piedmont and southern Virginia late tonight. Lows generally in the low 60`s, or 10-15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heights build over the local area as the strong/anomalous upper ridge builds into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday. Surface high pressure slides offshore. 850Mb temps warm to +15-17C (+1 standard deviation). Warm temperatures aloft combined with deep layer west to southwest flow will push daytime temps toward record territory. Highs Tuesday generally in the low to mid 80`s under a clear to mostly clear sky. Cooler along the coast. Mild Tuesday night with lows in the low to mid 60`s under a clear sky. The upper high centers over the Southeast Wednesday, resulting in the warmest day of the period. Record temperatures appear possible with highs solidly in the mid 80`s inland. Low to mid 80`s southeast and cooler along the coast. Forecast highs are generally 12-16 degrees above normal. However, low-level thickness regressions and ECMWF MOS guidance indicate temps could warm into the upper 80`s. A frontal boundary drops into the northern Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday afternoon. Higher dewpoints pool along the boundary, resulting in some marginal instability into the Maryland Eastern Shore. However, with the upper ridge over the region, warm temperatures aloft expected to suppress any convection Wednesday afternoon across the northeast forecast area. Will keep the forecast dry. Mild again Wednesday night with lows generally in the mid 60`s. Heights and 850mb temperatures begin to decrease Thursday ahead of a deepening, upstream trough and associated cold front. A disturbance near the Bahamas also progged to lift northward Thursday. The local area will be in the middle of these two features, with subsidence and limited moisture keeping the forecast dry through late Thursday. Daytime temperatures still several degrees above normal, with highs generally in the upper 70`s to low 80`s. Sky averages mostly sunny. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Mild/warm wx continues into Fri then a return to more seasonable conditions from the weekend into early next week. High pres sfc- aloft hangs on invof fa Thu night into Fri morning then breaks down. Sharp trough aloft to track through the OH/TN valleys Thu night into Fri...then continue E to off the E coast on Sat. 12Z/16 GFS has come more in line w/ 00Z/16 ECMWF wrt timing arrival of that system across the FA. Will have gradual increase in clouds and PoPs from W- E Fri...w/ high chc-likely PoPs Fri night then decreasing Sat as drying WNW flow takes over. Cooler and dry wx Sat afternoon through Mon. Lows Thu night from the u50s-l60s. Highs Fri mainly 70-75F. Low Fri night from the l50s W to u50s at the coast. Highs Sat from the l60s W to u60s E. Lows Sat and Sun nights from the m40s (well) inland to the l50s at the coast. Highs Sun/Mon mainly in the m-u60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 23Z...surface high pressure resides south of the region with upper level ridging continuing from the southern Great Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Surface high pressure is allowing for mainly clear skies and a light southwesterly flow. Little change is expected in the overall pattern through Wednesday with the upper level ridge strengthening from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas. Anticipating mostly clear skies overnight. As with the previous couple of nights, some patchy fog may develop over inland locations closer to sunrise. Introduced MVFR for visibility at RIC/SBY where patchy fog is most likely. Wind should limit any fog near coastal locations. All fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise and we will return to VFR conditions for Tuesday. Outlook: Dry weather/VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday. The next chance for showers arrives Friday as a cold front crosses the area. Dry weather will return for the weekend.
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&& .MARINE... Sfc hi pres will reside over the Carolinas through Tue...resulting in SSW winds aob 10 kt and seas 2-4 ft/waves 1-2 ft. Meanwhile, a sfc low pushing through the Upper Great Lakes Mon night and across SE Canada Tue/Tue night will briefly tighten the sfc pressure gradient over the waters Tue aftn/night. SSW winds will average 10- 20 kt all waters during that timeframe. Hi pres briefly rebounds over the Carolinas Wed through Thu as an upper trough/sfc cold front begins to sharpen invof MS valley into OH/TN valleys. Winds will be mainly S aob 10kt with seas 2-3 ft/waves 1-2 ft. The cold front will be approaching the waters on Friday while low pres deepens well ESE of Cape Hatteras. The cold front (crossing the mid Atlantic) should keep the low well out to sea Fri night/early Sat. Expecting lo lvl CAA and increased WNW winds (for period of SCAs) post cold front Sat...waning by Sun (afternoon). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The experimental total water level hydrographs are unavailable at this time. We hope to have the information back available soon. In the meantime, please refer to VIMS or MDL tidal data. && .CLIMATE... Very warm conditions this week with the possibility of challenging some records listed below: * Record Highs * Today (10/17) Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 86 (1925) 88 (1938) 87 (1938) 89 (1984) * ORF 87 (1925) 86 (2011) 87 (2007) 87 (1984) * SBY 87 (1908) 86 (1908) 84 (1938) 84 (1984) * Record high Mins: * Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20) * RIC 67 (1980) 73 (2007) 68 (1916) * ORF 68 (1980) 73 (2007) 70 (1916) * SBY 70 (1975) 71 (2007) 68 (1916) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.