Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 151756 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon...then slides farther offshore this evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. That cold front passes through the region late tonight into Monday. Cool high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Still stuck w/ the clouds and patchy DZ across much of the FA...but there are signs of improvement attm. Thinning of the OVC beginning over portions of the FA...mainly from central VA to interior NE NC. As lo level mixing on SSW winds takes place...erosion of the clouds expected by this afternoon over much of the local area. Warming anticipated due to the clearing...w/ highs reaching mainly the l-m80s (u70s at the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front crosses the mountains tonight, and then continues to press ESE through the local area late tonight into Monday morning, passing through far SE VA/NE NC late Monday morning. Becoming mostly cloudy over the NW half of the area after Midnight Monday, while remaining partly cloudy SE. 15/00z models continue to depict a narrow band of lift with the front, with the highest PoPs ~60% across the NW portion of the area later tonight (mainly after 08z), and then shifting to the SE portion of the area at 60-70% Monday morning through midday. Lows tonight range from the mid 50s NW, to the low/mid 60s SE. Highs Monday will generally be in the low/mid 60s, and temperatures may remain steady or slowly fall across SE VA/NE NC Monday morning through aftn with clouds/pcpn and CAA in a NNW wind in the wake of the front. QPF will be minimal, and generally less than 0.25". Surface high pressure pushes the cold front well E and S of the region Monday night, and then the high builds over the area by Tuesday. Mainly clear, cool, and dry conditions are expected. Lows Monday night will generally be in the low/mid 40s, with some upper 30s over the Piedmont, and upper 40s at the coast. Highs Tuesday should generally be 60-65F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure builds into the region allowing sunny skies, cooler temperatures, dry weather through the extended period. High pressure and clear skies should allow for good radiational cooling Tuesday night, thus undercut guidance slightly. Lows will fall into the lower 40s to even upper 30s in a few outlying locations Tuesday night. Highs will be near normal on Wednesday with highs around 70 degrees. Temperatures moderate a little each day with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s by Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows remain chilly through the period with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clearing out early this afternoon...w/ mainly VFR conditions expected through until late tonight/Mon morning. SSW winds gusty at times to 15-25kt until early this evening. A cold front pushing across the local area late tonight through early Mon afternoon will bring the potential for SHRAs and additional degraded flight conditions. The wind will shift to NNW at 10-15kt in the wake of the front Mon morning...w/ gusts of 20-25kt possible along the coast. High pres and a drier airmass build into the region Mon night and persist over the area until late in the upcoming week. && .MARINE... Update...SCAs for coastal waters through 1000 AM this morning have been cancelled. Seas have subsided below 5ft. Previous discussion... Light W-SW winds aob 10kt will prevail through this morning. Seas/waves average 3-4ft and 1-2ft respectively. A cold front approaches the region today, and the pressure gradient will tighten this aftn. Expect S-SW winds to increase to 15-20kt all coastal waters and 10-15kt rest of the waters during this time. Seas 3-4ft. Waves 2-3ft. SW winds continue to increase through the evening just ahead of the frontal passage. Expect speeds of 15-20kt on Ches Bay with seas building to 4-5ft north of Parramore Island. A new round of SCA flags has been issued for these areas from 800 PM tonight through the overnight hours. Behind the front, winds become NW-N and cold air advection processes dominate with speeds averaging 10-20kt all waters through Mon. Additional SCA flags for the rest of the coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the Lower James River will go into effect at 800 AM Mon morning. Seas 3-5ft. Waves 3-4ft. A secondary push of strong winds is anticipated for Mon night as high pressure builds in from the west and the pressure gradient tightens up again. Previously mentioned SCA flags will remain in effect through Tue aftn due to speeds averaging 15-25kt in these areas (gusts up to 30kt coastal waters and Currituck Sound at times). Seas build to 4-6ft north of Cape Charles Light and 5-7ft south. Waves average 3-4ft (up to 5ft possible in the mouth of Ches Bay Mon night). High pressure resides over/near the waters Tue aftn through the rest of the week and conditions become more benign. Winds generally NE-E aob 10kt Tue evening through Wed... becoming more variable but remaining light Wed night through Thu evening. Seas average 2-4ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJZ/ALB MARINE...BMD

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