Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162335 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 735 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast through Friday. A frontal boundary moves into the area Friday night, then stalls across the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high pushes offshore allowing winds to become SSE. Mostly clear and milder than past few nights. Lows 60-65 except upr 50s along the eastern shore beaches. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sfc high becomes centered off the sern coast through Friday bringing a taste of summer to the fa. Still see a lee trof developing in the models, but no real trigger for any organized convection to develop, except over the mts. However, SREF suggests isltd convection psbl around 21Z across coastal Tidewater / nrn Outer Banks due to sea breeze convergence. Given low confidence this will occur, kept it dry but carried a silent 10 pop. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny days along with mild nights. A cold front approaches from the NW late Friday. Best dynamics progged north of the region but kept chc pops after 18Z (which is NAM-ECMWF timing blend) as moisture increases ahead of the boundary. GFS appears somewhat quick with pcpn overspreading the region during the aftrn. H85 temps along with low level thicknesses support highs in the low- mid 90s west of the Ches Bay Wed with mid-upr 80s along the coast, cooler at the beaches. Some record highs will be challenged. See CLI section below. Heat index values will be held in check (around the actual air temp) given dew points btwn 60-65. Highs both Thurs and Fri in the upr 80s-lwr 90s, except cooler near the water. Lows 65-70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An end to the summer-like wx expected this weekend as a cold front settles S through the FA Fri night-Sat morning...pushing into srn NC Sat afternoon. Models now in better agreement w/ that scenario. SCT shras-possible tstms expected (early) Fri night...then lowering PoPs Sat (NE-SW) as NE winds bring in cooler air. Models are more aggressive attm w/ widespread cloudiness Sat into Sun morning before any residual frontal boundary pulls back N Sun afternoon. A cold front will be approaching from the W Sun night-Mon morning...then push across the FA Mon afternoon-night w/ high prob (50-70%) for SHRAS/tstms. Clearing out/cooler Tue. Lows Fri night in the l-m60s. Highs Sat from the u60s-l70s near the coast to around 80F (well) inland. Lows Sat night in the u50s-around 60F N to the m60s SE. Highs Sun from the u60s-m70s athe coast to around 80F inland. Lows Sun night ranging through the 60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the m80s inland. Highs Tue mainly in the m-u70s.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to continue across the region as high pressure slides off the coast tonight. High resolution model guidance has hinted at the potential for a bit of stratus near the immediate coast late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Did not include this in the forecast due to low confidence. Otherwise, mainly clear skies are expected overnight tonight and into the first part of the day on Wednesday, some cu develops Wednesday afternoon around 5000 feet. Southwest winds are anticipated on Wednesday and become breezy by the afternoon, 10-15 knots with gusts in excess of 20 knots. Outlook: High pressure off the coast dominate through late week, with a summer-like pattern taking hold on SW winds. The next chance for convection arrives late Friday into Saturday, as a frontal boundary stalls over the area.
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&& .MARINE... Sfc hi pres will be the predominant wx system through the rest of the week...remaining nearly stationary in the wrn Atlantic into Fri. Winds mainly light/VRB trending SSE through this eve...picking up to average about 10 kt. S-SSW winds expected from late tonight through Fri. Wind speeds increase late tonight through Thu night (potentially highest in the eve hrs Wed-Thu) but remain below SCA. Seas generally 1-3 ft with periods of up to 4 ft nrn coastal waters Thu night-Fri morning. Waves 1-2 ft and possibly 2-3 ft during same timeframe as higher seas. A cold front crosses the waters N-S Fri night into Sat afternoon...resulting in winds shifting to NE (and increasing by Sat afternoon to low end SCA). In addition to the winds increasing from the NE...waves expected to build to 2-4 ft on Ches Bay...and seas to 3-5 ft. The remnant cold front is slow to return back N during Sun...swinging winds back to the SSW (and waves/seas likely to lower as well by the end of the weekend). && .CLIMATE... Here are the forecast/record highs for Wednesday (5/17)... Record Location High Year -------- -------- ------ Richmond 94 1974 Norfolk 93 1941 Salisbury 90 1944 Elizabeth City 95 1941 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...

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