Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081810 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 110 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB) PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER. OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS. RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 4 PM. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM VA BEACH SOUTH ALONG OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALSO THE LOWER BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE THOSE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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