Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060602 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 102 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves into New England tonight. A complex area of low pressure crosses the region Tuesday...then moves offshore Tuesday night. A strong cold front crosses the area Thursday. Cold high pressure builds into the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Lo pres was located invof central gulf states late this evening. Mid-high level cloudiness increasing right now...w/ -RA on the doorstep in far SW VA-wrn NC. Low-mid levels will continue to moisten from SW-NE across the FA...w/ -RA expected to arrive after midnight to about I64. Lows in the m-u30s N to l-m40s SE zones. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday appears to be a washout with widespread rainfall across the fa. The initial low tracks NE to a position over the KY/Ohio valley Tuesday afternoon while a secondary low develops along the stalled coastal front. This coastal low progged to become the dominant low as it tracks NE across eastern NC then the northern Outer Banks Tuesday afternoon to a position east of VA Beach by 00Z Wed. Abundant GOM / Atlantic moisture becomes entrained allowing for a widespread mdt rainfall across the region. Given the progged forcing, some of the rainfall could be heavy at times. Kept pcpn type stratiformed for now but some convective elements are possible after 18Z across the extreme SE. Any thunder progged to remain offshore ivof Gulf stream. Added areas of fog to the grids as well. Temps always a challenge given an insitu-wedge across the piedmont and coastal front approaching from the SE. Little if any temp rise expected across NWRN most zones where highs will be hard pressed to reach 40. Temps stay in the 40s along and west of the I95 corridor, 50-55 coastal areas ranging to the upr50s-lwr 60s across the nrn Outer Banks ivof the low. Rainfall continues into Tuesday evening across the fa with the pcpn quickly tapering off then ending SW-NE after midnight as the low and best lift pull away from the region. Skies remain cldy with lows from the mid 30s NW to upr 40s SE. Total QPF expected between 1 to 1.25 inches. High pressure builds into the area from the west Wed and Wed night. Dry with near seasonal conditions. Highs in the mid-upr 50s under pt cldy skies. Lows in the mid 30s-lwr 40s. Much advertised cold crosses the region Thursday. Initial band of moisture progged to weaken as it crosses the mts given a downsloping wind flow. However, enough moisture seen to carry low chc pops with the fropa (30 pop north, 20 pop south). CAA not expected to kick in until the moisture passes to the east so expect any pcpn to remain in liquid form. Highs in the upr 40s-mid 50s but falling dp temps in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term period starts off Thu night/Fri with dry weather behind an offshore moving cold front. Main story in the extended will be cold temps, with lows in the mid/upr 20s Thu night dropping to the low/mid 20s Fri night and Sat night under continued dry weather with sfc high pressure in the vicinity. High temps Fri and Sat avg in the low 40s both days. Next chance of pcpn arrives Sun night/Mon with an approaching cold front, but have capped pops for now at 20-30% with this several days out. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Latest surface analysis centers high pressure over the Delmarva, ridging southward over the local area. Subsidence over the local area and overcast cloud decks from 9-15k feet AGL are keeping the precipitation at bay, as the light echoes over the southwest are not reaching the ground. Expect this trend to continue through 9-12Z as cloud decks slowly lower. MVFR ceilings expected to spread into the Piedmont by 10-12Z, but VFR conditions expected otherwise. Surface winds are generally calm to light out of the northeast. Rain expected to overspread the region from south to northeast in earnest after 12Z this morning as low pressure lifts along the coast. Model consensus indicates MVFR conditions at onset and lowering quickly to IFR by mid to late morning. IFR and locally LIFR conditions are expected across the entire region by 18Z in the form of ceilings of 400-700 feet AGL and moderate rainfall. IFR/LIFR conditions expected to persist through the remaining 06Z TAF issuance all sites. Northeast winds increase to around 10 knots inland and 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots near the coast. Conditions begin to slowly improve southeast to northeast late tonight as the storm system pulls away from the region. VFR conditions return Wednesday. A strong cold front impacts the area on Thursday, with only a quick chance for showers Thursday afternoon. High pressure returns Friday into the weekend.
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&& .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure in the vicinity with low pressure developing near the GOM coast. The low advances northeastward tonight, with another area of low pressure developing over the eastern Carolinas Tue. Winds/waves/seas increase ahead of the low, with SCA conditions expected over all waters by Tue aftn. Latest guidance continues to increase winds north and west of the sfc low as it strengthens offshore Tue eveng/night, enough that there is 50% confidence for a few hours of gale winds over the ocean, so have hoisted a gale watch there. Highest likelihood will be over northern coastal wtrs. The low pushes farther offshore Wed as weak high pressure builds into the area with winds/waves/seas decreasing. Sca conditions may linger into Wed with 5 ft seas continuing. A strong cold front then pushes across the waters Thu, with strong SCA conditions to low-end gale conditions possible Thu night through Fri night. SCA conditions expected over the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634. Gale Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB/SAM MARINE...MAS

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