Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 090732 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 332 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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LATEST MSAS SHOWING SFC TROF LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH ANY LEFTOVER SHWRS DSPTG DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. MEANWHILE...APPRCHG CLD FRNT STILL W OF MTS...LOCATED ACROSS WRN PA/ERN OHIO/WRN KY/TN. TSCTNS START OUT THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A LOT OF MID/HIGH LVL MSTR FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDCT THAT SOME SHWRS PSBL THIS AM ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA SO WILL CARRY 20 POP THRU NOON. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SFC TROF REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CLD FRNT CROSSING THE MTS AND MOVG INTO THE FA LATER TODAY. THIS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION TO DVLP AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. KEPT CHC POPS FOR NOW AS WDSPRD PCPN NOT XPCTD. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL GIVEN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT SUPPORTING STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS ALSO PSBL GIVEN PW`S BTWN 1.5 AND 2 IN. GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...EXPECT ENUF HEATING THIS MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY RISE THRU THE 80S...TOPPING OUT BTWN 90-95 ERLY THIS AFTRN BEFORE CONVECTION DVLPS. HEAT INDEX VALUES NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY REACH ARND 100 ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC CNTYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FRNTL BNDRY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IVOF DELMARVA PENINSULA AND ACROSS SERN VA ON TOWARD THE NC CSTL PLAIN THURSDAY. KEPT CHC POPS GOING TONIGHT GIVEN LCTN OF BNDRY. LOWS U60S NW CNTYS TO M70S SERN BEACH AREAS. CHC POPS THURSDAY AS WELL. TMPS HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE/PCPN. HIGHS 85-90. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVG S/W ENERGY NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY THURS NIGHT THRU ERLY FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THIS TREND...INCREASED BOTH CLOUD COVERAGE AND POPS FOR THIS PRD. SLOW MOVG...TRAINING ECHOES COULD PRODUCE LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA THUS QPF HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED. LOWS THU NIGHT M60S-L70S. HIGHS FRI M-U80S. TOTAL QPF THRU FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM BTWN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS NWRN CNTYS...1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS CNTRL SCTNS OF FA TO BTWN 1-2 INCHES ACROSS SERN VA...2+ INCHES PSBL ACROSS NERN NC.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRNTL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESE OFF THE CST FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS OVR THE NE U.S. AND DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. SO...WILL ONLY HAVE SLGT CHC POPS AT MOST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA SUN AND MON...BEFORE AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AND MON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT/INSTABILITY AND WEAK TROFS/BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACRS THE AREA. COLD FRONT ON TUE WILL THEN LIKELY TRIGGER SCTD PCPN...ESPLY OVR ERN/SE CNTIES. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE. STILL HAVE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN US TROUGH. CAN SEE A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY TO FIRE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL FINALLY STALL OUT BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR KORF KECG AND KPHF TO SEE CONVECTION FIRST ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE IT WILL BE SCATTERED HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WITH ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND A CHANCE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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ONE FRONT STALLS OUT AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAKER WIND GUSTS. PLAN TO DROP SMALL CRAFT ON THE RIVERS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN TODAY OVER THE OCEAN SO THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE NO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONTS WILL BE WEAK AND NOT CAUSE MORE THEN 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER SEAS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER ONSHORE WIND FETCH.
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&& .CLIMATE... RIC REACHED 100 DEGREES AT 359 PM EDT JULY 8 2014. THE LAST TIME RIC REACHED 100 DEGREES WAS JULY 8 2012 WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103...WHICH IS ALSO THE DAILY RECORD FOR THE DAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JAB MARINE...JAB CLIMATE...AKQ

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