Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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757 FXUS61 KAKQ 301935 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 335 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAINFALL TO AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COOL FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. $$ .NEAR TERM... THE RAIN HAS JUST ENTERED WESTERN VA AND IS STILL GENERALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA N AND NW OF RIC. THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW UPPER 40S ONCE AGAIN IN THE MD EASTERN SHORE BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM... WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL. COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEDGE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000-3500FT MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR AROUND 03Z. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AT RIC AND SBY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE COAST HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND MARYLAND. IFR CONDTIONS IN THE MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SEAS UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED. THE SUB-SCA NE FLOW THIS EVENG BCMS SELY THEN SLY SUN AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM/JAO MARINE...MAS

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