Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250559 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 159 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. ALOFT...AN UPR LOW IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NOT MUCH ON THE RADAR LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD POPS (20%) MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. OTW...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD. LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT STALLS ACROSS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC INTO TUE AS THERE IS LITTLE PUSH IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NUDGE THE FRNT OFFSHORE AS MID/UPR-LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW. DESPITE THE FRNT WEAKENING...RAIN IS STILL PSBL WITH POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE OVER SE VA/NE NC TUE AFTN/EVENG. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID/UPR 80S. FORECAST TRENDS TOWARDS DECREASING POPS INTO WED AND THU AS THE FRNT FURTHER WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFFSHORE. 20-30% POPS OVER FAR SE AREAS WED AFTN DECREASE TO 20% WED NGT THEN BLO 20% (SILENT POPS) THU. MEANWHILE...STRONG SFC HI PRES WILL BE BLDING IN FM THE W DURING THE WEEK. EXPECT PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WED AND THU WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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TROUGH ALOFT INITIALLY INVOF ERN CONUS SPLITS FM THE THU NGT THROUGH FRI (NORTHERN PORTION TO LIFT NE THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES... SOUTHERN PORTION TO DRIFT BACK SSW TWD THE GULF STATES). MEANWHILE... SFC HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED FM THE MDATLC TO NEW ENG HEADING INTO THE WKND. HI PRES SFC-ALOFT TO RMN INVOF MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE WRN ATLC SAT INTO SUN XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES...AND PTNTLLY/EVENTUALLY FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES BY MON. WILL HAVE MNLY DIURNAL POPS ACRS THE FA LT WKND INTO MON...ESP ACRS FAR SRN VA/NE NC. TEMPS NR SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PD...W/ MOST DAYTIME HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE 60S TO ARND 70F.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DELMARVA INTO WCNTRL NC AS OF THE 25/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOVING ENE. ONE SHOWER MAY GRAZE THE VICINITY OF KRIC...OTHERWISE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC LATER THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY EXITS THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT KECG AFTER 25/1800Z AND WILL ADDRESS KPHF AND KORF AS POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS WARRANT AMENDMENTS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AND ALONG IT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
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&& .MARINE...
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CDFNT RMNS WELL W OF THE WTRS ATTM...AND WILL CONT ITS SLO APPROACH FM THE W INTO TNGT. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE SSE (RMNG SUB- SCA...AVVG 15 KT OR LESS) INTO THIS EVE BEFORE WANING OVRNGT AS FNT ARRIVES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS ACRS THE WTRS LATE TNGT THROUGH TUE MORNING...BECOMING OFFSHORE NRN PORTION...WHILE STALLING INVOF SRN WTRS (BY AFTN). QUICK/SHORT SURGE IN SPEEDS (FM NNW)(AVGG AOB 15 KT) XPCD MNLY NRN PORTION OF WTRS...WHILE WNDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VRB S. ANOTHER WK FNTL BNDRY XPCD TO SETTLE ACRS THE WTRS LT WED NGT/THU MRNG...THEN DISSIPATE INVOF CSTL CAROLINAS...WHILE SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY LT WEEK.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...ALB

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