-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110625
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...THEN
WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET EVENING UNDERWAY W/ MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
GENLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BUT OVERALL IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP
IT FAIRLY MILD W/ LOWS GENLY 50-55 F...UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
FOR UPDATE TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPR MIDWEST TODAY
WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY...STALLING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WSW AND
LACKING THE NECESSARY ENERGY TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STALLING THE FRONT AND KEEPING THE
BULK OF MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. THE
FRONT IS FINALLY ABLE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA SAT
MORNING...WITH THE HELP OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT WASHES
OUT/DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION WX IN
THE FCST FOR SAT ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF AREA AND
QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON SUN WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW FRIDAY HELPING TO PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S...WITH SOME LOW 80S POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF I-95. TEMPS
MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON SAT BUT SHOULD STILL BE PLEASANT. HIGHS FROM
THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO THE MID/UPR 70S INLAND. COMFORTABLE
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ON MON. THEN...TRANSITION TO A HIGH CHC OR LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE EVENG...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED AND THU. LATEST GFS/ECMWF INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHO THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS
STILL LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACH OF MOISTURE LATE MON AND THE
SUBSEQUENT DRYING LATE TUE. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
SLGTLY SLOWER ECMWF MODEL FOR THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES
AREAS PRODUCING SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE NGT. DECREASING CHCS FOR
SHOWERS FM W TO E TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN
BLD FM THE GREAT LAKES EWRD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WED THRU THU. THAT
HI WILL PROVIDE DRY WX AND COOLER TEMPS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S MON MORNG...IN THE 50S TUE MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S WED AND THU MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 70S
MON...RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S TUE...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
LWR 60S WED...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SW WIND OF
10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY
(TO AROUND 25KT) AFTER 14Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TODAY AND DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY (20-30%) OF -SHRA MAINLY FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT E-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
7PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA UNTIL 17Z FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES AS BOTH WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL SWAN MODEL
INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE TO 4 PM FORECAST.

     LATER AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TNGT INTO FRI AFTN...RESULTING IN SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVR
THE WTRS. COULD BE ISLTD GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT TNGT IN THE NRN TWO
CHES BAY ZNS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOLID 15 KT IN THE FCST AND NO
SCA HEADLINE. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACRS THE AREA FRI NGT INTO
SAT AFTN...THEN DISSIPATES OVR NC. THE WIND WILL INITIALLY SHIFT
TO THE NNW FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG...THEN BECOMES ONSHORE (ESE 5 TO
10 KT) DURING THE REMAINDER OF SAT. HI PRES WILL THEN STRENGTHEN
OFF THE MID ATLC CST SUN INTO MON...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FM THE W BY LATE MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO SSW
SUN...WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS MON ALONG WITH BLDNG SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF
VA/NC ZONES. FUELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY AFTER TODAY`S WARM
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WITH MODEL GUIDANCE BEING NOTORIOUSLY
TOO HIGH WITH AFTN DEW PTS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SW FLOW PATTERNS
AHEAD WEAK COLD FRONTS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MIN RH
VALUES DROP TO AT LEAST 30-35% AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 25% IN MANY
AREAS. INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES AND 900-800MB WINDS OF 20-25
KT SUGGESTS GOOD MIXING AND 20 FT WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. MORE
MARGINAL ON MIN RH AND WINDS FOR FAR NORTHERN VA COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE ERN SHORE AND NC OUTER BANKS SO HAVE KEPT THESE ZONES OUT OF
THE SPS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL ALLOW MID
SHIFT TO EVALUATE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...LKB/DAP
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...TMG/WRS
FIRE WEATHER...LKB