-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TMPS SLOWLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SERN AREAS...SO HAVE LET
THE WWA EXPIRE. MODELS INDCTG SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER BEACH
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS...OTW SKIES BECOMING PT SUNNY WRN AREAS...
REMAINING M CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ERN AREAS AS LOW PRS SLOW TO DEPART
THE AREA. HIGH TMPS IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING, ALLOWING 1040+MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE M-U 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS NEW ENGLAND...AS NEXT SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT TOWARDS EAST TEXAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING, W/ SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THU. THE SFC LOW WL SLIDE NE FROM THE
GULF OF MEX TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW/TOMORROW AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC FRI-SAT. RESULTANT NE LOW LVL
FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STAYED AWAY FROM THE NAM WITH THIS PACKAGE GIVEN ITS MARKEDLY MORE
AMPLIFIED (AND THEREFORE SLOWER) SOLN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AS THE 00Z/5 GFS HAS TRENDED TWDS THE
ECMWF/UKMET WITH RESPECT TO A QUICK MOVING MILLER-A SYSTEM SLIDING
JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY
MORNING. HV INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT THU/FRI AM, WITH HIGH END CHC POPS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-64 THU NGT. NEXT ISSUE IS P-TYPE...AS THE SFC HI
PRES INVOF NEW ENG DRIFTS E BY THAT TIME...LO LVLS XPCD TO WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICE NUCLEATION FRM OCCURRING (PREDOMINATE P-TYPE
OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH IP POSSIBLE AT THE START FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA). FOR FAR NW TIER OF
CWA...LO LVL CAD SHOULD A BIT MORE STUBBORN, ALLOWING TEMPS TO
STICK NR/JUST BELOW FREEZING. THUS, WINTRY PCPN PTNTL (PTYPE
FAVORING ZR)...AFTER MIDNIGHT THU INTO EARLY FRI MRNG. HAVE ETCHED
IN SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ACROSS THIS AREA IN GRIDS FOR NOW,
WITH QUICK CHANGE TO -RA EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF
FROM W TO E FRIDAY MORNING/AFTN.

LOW TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M/U20S INLAND TO THE L/M30S SE VA/NE NC.
HI TEMPS THU IN THE L/M40S. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM ARND 30F FAR
INLAND TO THE U30S NR THE CST IN VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE
M40S N TO L50S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FAR SE FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN DRY AFTER THAT UNTIL MAYBE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL RETURN TO THE 50S
AND LOW 60S. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SWD OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED NLY FLOW OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WITH DECKS 500-1000 FT AGL PERSISTS OVER THE SE
(KORF/KECG) AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. ANTICIPATE OVC MVFR/IFR CIGS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BECOME NELY AS
COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP OVER THE REGION...BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS
BACK IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
(KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). ELSEWHERE TODAY...MAINLY BKN-OVC SKIES WITH
DECKS AOA 25K FT AGL...BUT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS 3-6K FT AGL REMAIN
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WINDS WILL BECOME NELY TONIGHT
AND INCREASE...GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KT ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED THE LATER PART OF THE TAFS TOWARD
IFR CIGS ALL SITES AS NELY FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WITH PRECIP SPREADING OVER THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC. IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRI
NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL TROUGH. PERSISTENT
N-NE WINDS AND NE-E SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 5 FT SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. SUB-SCA WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN OVER BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GULF
ON THU AND MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COASTS THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BTWN THE
INCOMING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...THEREFORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO STRONG SCA SPEEDS (20-30 KT) ON THU
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL
BUILD TWD 5 FT ALL COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND
6-7 FT IN SRN WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP TO 6-11 FT THROUGH
THU AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT UNTIL SAT. WAVES ON
CHES BAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
EVENING. IN ADDITION...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS (ESPECIALLY
SRN WATERS) THU NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.

SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR SRN WATERS AND ADDITIONAL FLAGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE ENDING TIME
HAS BEEN CAPPED AT FRI MORNING...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ635-636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ633-650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...BMD