Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230547 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 147 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the deep south today. A dry cold front will move across the area on Monday...with cool high pressure building across the region through the middle of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Latest wx analysis features ~1020mb sfc high pressure in place from the OH/TN river valleys back into the western Gulf/Lower MS Valley. To the north, deepening low pressure continues to slide NNE from Northern New England into Southeastern Quebec. 3-hr pressure rises have actually ticked up as the low deepens, but with gradient and winds aloft slackening, will continue to see gusts drop off over the next few hours. No significant changes necessary to the going forecast. Surface high will continue to build to the SSW of the area overnight. Pressure gradient between the low over Quebec and the high over the SE will keep the BL well mixed, which should prevent full decoupling and keeping temps from falling too far tonight. Cannot totally rule out some patchy frost on cars or rooftops late tonight across the piedmont where the temp touches 36-37 briefly...but no significant impacts expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major issues through Tuesday. The high pressure over the Appalachians will shift to the south on Sunday allowing for warm advection to develop across the area on Sunday into Sunday night(with 850mb temps rising to +13c) ahead of another dry cold front. This should allow temperatures to rebound to close to normal or just slightly below normal on Sunday. Despite the cold fropa on Monday, downslope warming will allow for the best CAA later Monday Night which may allow temps to be even slightly warmer on Monday compared to Sunday. More likely to decouple Monday night...but the overall atmosphere will not be as cold as tonight. As is once again possible that there may be a few spots with patchy frost across the interior...but most likely not anything widespread with temps dropping into the upper 30s across the piedmont. Temps will drop back into the mid 60s on Tuesday (as 850mb temps drop back to +6c). This cold front looks quite dry and other than a gradual wind shift from WSW to NW on Monday and perhaps a few more significant weather is expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong canadian high pressure ridges down into the Mid Atlc region Tue ngt into Wed ngt, as the center of the high moves toward eastern Canada. Continued dry but cool conditions. Lows Tue ngt in the upper 30s to mid 40s most places. Highs on Wed ranging fm the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows Wed ngt in the 40s to arnd 50. Low pressure will then track thru the Great Lakes and into nrn New England Thu thru Fri. That low will pull a cold front acrs the area and off the coast Thu evening thru Fri morning. At this time, have 20-30% pops for showers late Thu thru Fri morning. High pressure will return for later Fri thru Sat. Highs will range thru the 60s on Thu. Lows Thu ngt in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Fri and Sat will range fm the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Fri ngt ranging fm the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A quiet TAF period with mainly clear skies and westerly winds to avg 10 KT or less through mid morning, increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT from 15-21Z today (gusting to 25 KT at KSBY). OUTLOOK...A dry cold front passing through the region on Monday will shift winds back to the NW, but dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail. Dry/VFR conditions to persist through mid week with a chance of showers approaching from the west late Thursday. No significant morning fog is expected through midweek but there may be fog around sunrise Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Have dropped Gale Warning over the Chesapeake Bay overnight. Gale warning continues through early Sunday for northern Atlantic coastal zones. Strong gradient winds persist, with winds a few thousand feet aloft in the 20-30 knot range. Optimal mixing has resulted in either solid SCA conditions to low end gale conditions this evening. Seas remain 4-6 feet and waves 2-5 feet (highest northern Bay zones). The gradient ramps up again tonight as high pressure builds into the Deep South. The result will be another uptick in northwest winds, although not as significant as last night. Gale headlines persist north of Parramore Island, for gusts to ~35 kt overnight. Elsewhere, Northwest winds generally 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 knots. Seas remain 4-6 feet and waves 3-5 feet. High pressure nudges northeast into the local area Sunday, with winds becoming westerly and diminishing to 10 to 20 knots. SCA headlines have been extended into early Sunday afternoon. Seas remain 4-5 feet in the northern coastal zones through Sunday night. SCA conditions look to be short lived as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes Sunday and into the Northeast Sunday night. Combination of a strengthening gradient and a cool/dry air mass already in place will likely mix some of the stronger winds aloft to the surface. Expect a southwest wind of 15 to 25 knots Monday night. A trailing cold front associated with the Northeast low pushes across the region Late Monday with more SCA conditions expected Monday night. High pressure builds in from the northwest Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/MRD NEAR TERM...MAM/MRD SHORT TERM...LKB/MRD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...SAM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.