Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020800 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK (HIGHEST WED). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND SAT. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. && .MARINE... WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD

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