Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 202342 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 742 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance passes across the north tonight and possibly interacts with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm front stalls along or south of the Virginia-North Carolina border Tuesday. A dry cold front drops into the region Wednesday...followed by Canadian high pressure Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday into the first part of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MCS over srn IN not dissipating as quickly as would normally be expected during the daytime hours. This is keeping ongoing showers/storms across wrn KY into srn WV/far sw VA early this aftn. This main area of precip is expected to stay well west of the local FA with a slight ewd drift as sfc high pressure breaks down over the Mid Atlantic Region the rest of today. Any remnant moisture on the NE quadrant of the MCS will generally stream across the Nrn Neck/Delmarva tonight and become enhanced by a weak shortwave, which is responsible for convection re-firing across nrn IL/IN late this morning and currently moving across ncntrl/cntrl IN early this aftn. Weak isentropic lift is also associated with the incoming shortwave and lends more credence to increasing rain chances overnight to 70-80%...especially for inland VA and the MD Lower Eastern Shore. While theta-e gradient placement overnight would be conducive for mention of thunder, overall instability will be lacking and will maintain rain shower wording. Lows tonight generally in the mid 40s (lower 40s beaches and MD/VA Eastern Shore) due to mostly cloudy to cloudy skies in showers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rain exits the coast around daybreak as a warm front stalls along/south of the VA/NC border the rest of Tue. Showers may redevelop invof this boundary during the aftn, however they could be hard- pressed given overall stable conditions, mostly cloudy skies, and nw winds present north of the front; maintained slight chance for showers. Cooled high temps by a few degrees: mid 50s to lower 60s NE to lower 70s SW. A cold front approaches from the NW Tue night. Shortwave energy out ahead of it will a) push the warm front to the SE and b) allow another round of rain showers to develop essentially along/south of Interstate 64. Latest 12Z model guidance has shunted best shower chances farther south and the rain may actually set up along/south of Hwy 460 where the best temperature and pressure gradients are located. Have trended precip forecast in this direction without drying out the north too fast (40-60% south/20-30% north). Colder air doesn`t arrive until Wed, therefore expect overnight lows in the 40s (upper 30s possible far nrn counties). Dry cold front dips across nrn VA/Delmarva on Wed with skies quickly clearing from north to south in the morning and north winds becoming gusty up to 30-35 mph along the immediate coast (up to 25 mph inland). High temperature forecast could be tricky but only anticipate a 5-10 degree warm-up despite mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s NE to low-mid 50s SW. Meanwhile, strong Canadian sfc high builds across the Upper Great Lakes Wed, into the ern Great Lakes Wed night, and finally dropping across the Mid Atlantic Region on Thu. Cold Wed night under mostly clear skies. Lows in the 20s most inland areas (around 30F far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas). This is about 10 degrees (or roughly 1.5 std dev) below normal. Cooler and dry on Thu with highs largely in the 40s areawide. Highs will also run on the high side of 1.5 std dev (or 10-15 degrees) below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge axis over the region allows for a cold night Thursday night. Lows in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. The high moves off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Saturday allowing temps to quickly warm. Highs Friday in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows 45-50. Highs Saturday in the mid-upr 60s along the coast, upr 60s-lwr 70s west of the Ches Bay. Moisture starts to increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary Saturday night and Sunday. Low chc pops Sat night. Lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. Frontal boundary progged across the region Sunday and Sunday night. Mild with chc pops (slght chc thunder across the south). Highs upr 50s-lwr 60s Eastern Shore areas, mid-upr 60s west of the Bay. Lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lingering moisture keep chc pops going into Monday. Highs in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will slide off the SE coast later this aftn into tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure and an associated cold front will approach fm the NW this evening, and drop into the region later tonight into Tue morning. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight, but cigs should generally remain VFR. Showers are expected to accompany this system, moving thru the CWA and TAF sites fm arnd 04Z-12Z. This front slowly drops acrs the area during Tue, then settles over the Carolinas Tue night with low pressure tracking along the boundary and just off the NC coast by early Wed morning. This will bring a chc of rain, with the best chc acrs srn VA/NE NC. High pressure then builds in fm the N during Wed and settles over the area Thu. The high slides offshore Fri. && .MARINE...
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7 PM UPDATE... Looking at buoy data...wavewatch is significantly undercutting the easterly swell that is occuring and extended the SCA in all the coastal waters to 1 AM. Seas through Midnight are forecast to be 4 to 7 ft north of Chincoteague...4 to 6 ft Chincoteague to Parramore Island...4 to 5 ft from Parramore Island to the VA/NC border and 5 to 7 ft south of the VA/NC border. The ending times for the SCA may be adjusted once again at 10 PM as additional data arrives. Previous discussion... Seas are slow to subside so will continue the SCA`s along the coast. Expect seas to slowly subside from north to south through the evening hours. Otw, weak low pressure moves across the area tonight with winds progged aob 15 kts. SW winds become north behind the system after midnight. A cold front drops into the region Tuesday afternoon, slowly pushing south of the waters Tuesday evening. Models continue to produce a decent CAA surge after 09Z Wed through 12Z Thursday as strong gradient winds and height rises overspread the waters. Speeds increase to 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. GFS guidance continues to hint for low end gales Wednesday morning with the initial surge but will cap gusts to 32 kts for now given low confidence. Strong high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon, spilling over the central Appalachians late afternoon. Cold air advection wanes Wednesday night, but with the high remaining northwest of the waters, expect SCA conditions to persist into Wednesday night. Seas build to 3-6 feet Wednesday and waves 2-4 feet. Will hold off on issuing a 4th/5th period headline with this package. Improving conditions expected by Thursday as high pressure builds across the waters. Return flow expected Friday as high pressure slides offshore. The next front pushes across the waters late this weekend.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... Radar KDOX remains down hard and inoperational due to a bad spectrum filter. Part is on order and estimated (though possibly unstable) return to service is Wednesday, March 22nd. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MPR/LSA EQUIPMENT...

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