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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181909
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the southeast coast continues the warm and humid
conditions through Monday. A cold front approaches from the west
late Monday...then stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast
North Carolina through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Another warm/humid afternoon across the FA...w/ sfc hi pres
still located in the wrn Atlantic. Deeper layered SSW flo has
resulted in a bit of drying (aloft) and much less coverage to
convection. Averaging out partly sunny the rest of the
day...will maintain about a 15% PoP for the (early) evening
hours. Partly-mostly cloudy overnight...w/ lows in the u60s-l70s
w to the m70s E.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Models show continued/gradual amplification of trough aloft
through the Great Lakes Mon...pushing a cold front closer to
the FA from the WNW. Models hold off on front pushing into WNW
areas of FA until around/shortly after 00Z/20...then that front
continues to press very slowly ESE...eventually stalling out
over SE VA/NE NC Tue. Will increase PoPs WNW (to 60-80% in the
afternoon) to ESE Mon (25-40% by late afternoon).
Otherwise...partly sunny then mostly cloudy Mon. Going w/ PoPs
50-90% Mon night w/ the frontal passage...then taper off Tue NW
(to 20% or less) while keeping 40-70% PoPs in SE VA/NE NC as
the frontal boundary hovers over that portion of the FA. Partly
sunny NW to mostly cloudy SE Tue.

SPC has the Mid Atlantic area in a day 2 risk for possible
severe storms (marginal/slight risk across AKQ FA...enhanced
risk just N of the local area). Prime period of any
strong/severe tstms (should there be any) would be after 20-22Z
(and mainly NW 1/2 of FA) through the early evening.
Meanwhile...heavy rain likely to become more of a concern by
Mon night as the front slowly presses SE into the moisture laden
air in place. Mentions of strong/severe tstms and heavy rain
will remain in the HWO. Additional heavy rain possible in SE VA-
NE NC Tue.

Highs Mon in the u80s NW to l90s...m80s at the beaches. Lows
Mon night 65 to 70F NW to the m70s SE. Partly sunny NW...mostly
cloudy SE Tue w/ highs in the l-m80s.

Frontal boundary lingers invof SE VA-NE NC Tue night into
Wed...resulting in continued high PoPs (and possibly heavy
rain). For NNW areas...Wed will be partly sunny. Highs in the
m80s NW to the l80s SE.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary lingers in vicinity of the coastal plain of
SE VA and the Carolinas Tuesday night/Wednesday resulting in
some lingering 30-40% PoPs in those areas. Adjusted pops across
the SE Tuesday evening upwards a bit based on the progged frontal
position. The latest data supports relatively dry conditions
Thursday then potential for diurnal convection Friday into next
weekend but uncertainty is high at this time. Highs in the 80s
Wednesday/Thursday, then maybe creeping back into the low 90s
Friday/Saturday. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAF sites have finally gone to VFR conditions after a morning of
stratus clouds and MVFR conditions persised over the region.
S-SW winds will gust up to 15-25 kt across the region today.
Some scattered convection is possible through the afternoon and
evening but the chances are less than the past couple of days.
VFR conitions and a few clouds during the overnight with little
fog expected due to increased gradient wind. Southerly flow may
bring some sct/bkn clouds into the region generally above 3500
ft.

A fairly strong cold front will move through the Ohio Valley
this evening and into the Mid Atlantic region on Monday. The
front will bring an increased chance for thunderstorms to the
region. Some of these storms may be strong, especially in the
late afternoon/evening portion of the day. Flight hazards may
include strong gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning,
along with lower ceilings and visibility.

Outlook..Sct convection expected through mid week as the
frontal boundary stalls across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient tightens today ahead of a cold front that
will push across the Midwest towards the TN Valley this
afternoon/evening. South winds 5-15kt this morning will increase
to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt coastal waters) this afternoon.
Seas 3-4ft this morning will build to 4-6ft north of Cape
Charles Light and 3-5ft south. Waves in Ches Bay will average
2ft this morning and then build to 3ft this afternoon with
pockets of 4ft in the middle of the Bay. SCA flags are in effect
for the nrn coastal waters with the rest going into effect at
100 PM this afternoon. A lull in SCA conditions should be
anticipated for Currituck Sound and Ern VA rivers late tonight
through Monday morning. However, the pressure gradient tightens
up even more by Monday afternoon with the cold front closing in
on the Appalachian mountains. A return to SCA conditions early
Monday afternoon (S-SW winds 15-25kt all waters with gusts up to
30kt coastal waters) has resulted in an extension to SCA flags
through Monday night Bay/Sound/Rivers and through Tuesday morning
for coastal waters. Seas are expected to build to 5-7ft north
of Cape Charles Light during this secondary surge. Waves still
averaging 3ft.

SCA conditions subside by Tuesday morning with SW winds diminishing
below 15kt all waters, however SCA flags for coastal waters will
continue through the morning due to seas being slightly slower to
subside below 5ft. For Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the
week, generally southwest winds at sub-SCA speeds will prevail.
Seas 2-4ft. Waves 1-3ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...JDM/MPR
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...BMD