Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 110625 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 225 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... QUIET EVENING UNDERWAY W/ MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES GENLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT OVERALL IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY MILD W/ LOWS GENLY 50-55 F...UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS AND ACRS THE ERN SHORE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR UPDATE TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR FRI. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPR MIDWEST TODAY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY...STALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WSW AND LACKING THE NECESSARY ENERGY TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STALLING THE FRONT AND KEEPING THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FINALLY ABLE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA SAT MORNING...WITH THE HELP OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT WASHES OUT/DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION WX IN THE FCST FOR SAT ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF AREA AND QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON SUN WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW FRIDAY HELPING TO PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH SOME LOW 80S POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF I-95. TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON SAT BUT SHOULD STILL BE PLEASANT. HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO THE MID/UPR 70S INLAND. COMFORTABLE LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MON. THEN...TRANSITION TO A HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE EVENG...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED AND THU. LATEST GFS/ECMWF INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHO THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THE APPROACH OF MOISTURE LATE MON AND THE SUBSEQUENT DRYING LATE TUE. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY SLOWER ECMWF MODEL FOR THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES AREAS PRODUCING SHOWERS MON NGT INTO TUE NGT. DECREASING CHCS FOR SHOWERS FM W TO E TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE GREAT LAKES EWRD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WED THRU THU. THAT HI WILL PROVIDE DRY WX AND COOLER TEMPS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S MON MORNG...IN THE 50S TUE MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S WED AND THU MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 70S MON...RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S TUE...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S THU. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SW WIND OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY (TO AROUND 25KT) AFTER 14Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TODAY AND DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (20-30%) OF -SHRA MAINLY FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT E-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... 7PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA UNTIL 17Z FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN 2 COASTAL WATERS ZONES AS BOTH WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL SWAN MODEL INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO 4 PM FORECAST. LATER AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO FRI AFTN...RESULTING IN SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVR THE WTRS. COULD BE ISLTD GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT TNGT IN THE NRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOLID 15 KT IN THE FCST AND NO SCA HEADLINE. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACRS THE AREA FRI NGT INTO SAT AFTN...THEN DISSIPATES OVR NC. THE WIND WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO THE NNW FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG...THEN BECOMES ONSHORE (ESE 5 TO 10 KT) DURING THE REMAINDER OF SAT. HI PRES WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OFF THE MID ATLC CST SUN INTO MON...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE W BY LATE MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO SSW SUN...WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS MON ALONG WITH BLDNG SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF VA/NC ZONES. FUELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY AFTER TODAY`S WARM DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WITH MODEL GUIDANCE BEING NOTORIOUSLY TOO HIGH WITH AFTN DEW PTS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SW FLOW PATTERNS AHEAD WEAK COLD FRONTS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AT LEAST 30-35% AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 25% IN MANY AREAS. INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES AND 900-800MB WINDS OF 20-25 KT SUGGESTS GOOD MIXING AND 20 FT WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. MORE MARGINAL ON MIN RH AND WINDS FOR FAR NORTHERN VA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ERN SHORE AND NC OUTER BANKS SO HAVE KEPT THESE ZONES OUT OF THE SPS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO EVALUATE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DAP NEAR TERM...LKB/DAP SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG/WRS FIRE WEATHER...LKB

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