Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140940 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 440 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly settle over the region through Wednesday. A mainly dry cold front will drop across the region late Wednesday night, followed by high pressure returning Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front will affect the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc hi pres continues to build over the FA and to the NE through today. NNE winds keeping ST invof coast from lower ern shore to SE VA-NE NC...w/ lingering BKN-OVC higher based CIGs found SW of RIC. Will continue w/ at least BKN CIGs invof SE VA-NE NC into this afternoon as NNE winds persist. Elsewhere...after patchy early morning FG...partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs today in the l-m50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models in good agreement w/ sfc high pres centered from the NE CONUS to the mid-Atlantic states tonight into Wed afternoon. Clear-partly cloudy tonight w/ lows in the l-m30s inland...u30s-l40s at the coast. The surface high will be right over the local area Wed and limited mixing will keep highs from warming much despite rising heights aloft and rising 850 mb temps. Highs Wed will avg in the m-u50s most areas. The high slides off the coast Wed night, as a mainly dry cold front drops across the region very late Wed night. That front will be moisture starved...so have gone w/ PoPs aob 10%. GFS/NAM do suggest that a very weak sfc low approaches the coast from the E Wed night which may increase PoPs (to 20-30%) mainly over the ocean waters. Lows Wed night will mainly range from the u30s-m40s. Warmer and becoming mostly sunny Thu with a breezy downslope NW flow. Highs on Thu in the lower 60s N and NE to the m-u60s central/S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term begins with shortwave ridging and high pressure at the surface moving across the region on Friday ahead of the next upper trof. Mid temps Thursday night in the 30s, with high temps Friday in the 50s. This is a bit below normal for mid November. Next upper trof moves through the region in the Saturday through early Sunday time frame. Still timing differences between 12Z GFS/ECMWF, with the ECMWF still about 12 hours slower than the GFS, which has slowed about 6 hours from yesterday. Have gone with a model blend, which leans a little toward the ECMWF. Upstart is that any precipitation along the front will hold off until Saturday afternoon, and potentially Saturday evening, if ECMWF solution works out. Expect a warmer day on Saturday, with max temps in the 60s (potentially around 70 if ECMWF is correct), after low temps Friday night in the upper 30s and 40s. Trof moves offshore by Sunday morning, with a dry, but breezy/perhaps windy and colder day Sunday, with high temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Cold high pressure builds into the region Sunday through Monday. Low temps Sunday night in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with high temps next Monday in the 40s. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An area of MVFR ST persists invof lower ern shore across SE VA- NE NC. Continued mainly NNE winds expected to keep at least BKN (hi end MVFR-low end VFR) CIGS this morning into this afternoon...mainly at ORF/ECG. At RIC/PHF/SBY...conditions have at least partially clear and will result in occasional light FG early this morning. Sfc hi pres builds over the region today...then remains over the FA through Wed. A mainly dry cold front crosses the area Thu w/ high pressure returning Fri. High pressure moves offshore Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .MARINE...
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High pressure dominates the weather pattern through Wed. There is a bit of a gradient with north winds currently averaging 15-20kt Sound/Bay/Ocean, and SCA flags are in effect through late this aftn/evening/overnight (respectively). Gusts may reach around 25kt for Ocean south of Cape Charles Light. Otherwise, seas will average 4-6ft through this evening and then gradually subside to 4-5ft overnight tonight. Stacked low pressure crosses the Upper Great Lakes Wed/Wed night, digs over the St Lawrence River Valley/Northeast States Thu/Thu night, and exits along the Canadian maritimes Fri. A spoke of upper level energy is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic Region Wed night and may allow a sfc coastal low to spin up near the Hatteras/Mid Atlantic coasts Wed night into Thu morning before pushing away from the coast Thu aftn by the upper level wave. Gradient tightens up by Thu aftn due to presence of coastal low and sfc high pressure building over Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Winds generally light and onshore/ENE to N aob 10kt Wed night becoming WNW and increasing to roughly 10-15kt all waters Thu morning/aftn. A cold air advection surge is anticipated Thu night into Fri morning, and a period of SCA conditions may be possible. Seas 3-5ft; waves 3-4ft. High pressure returns briefly Fri...sliding off the Southeast Coast Fri night. Winds become light aob 10kt with variable wind directions...becoming more southerly late Fri night and increasing into Sat (SW 15-25kt) as the next cold front approaches from the west.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...AJZ/ALB MARINE...BMD

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