Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190753 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 353 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak frontal boundary will remain situated over the local area today and Saturday. A true cold front crosses the region late Sunday into Sunday night...with high pressure building in for much of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak/diffuse frontal boundary across far SE VA and the NC coastal plain. Shwrs this morning have be confined to the western Carolinas and also off the NC coast. Hi- res guidance shows a few of the showers to the west gradually developing/spreading eastward in swrn portions of the FA thru 12z. Will carry slight chc pops to highlight this potential. For the rest of today...shwrs and tstms will become increasingly possible across southern areas into the afternoon with heating of the day and the remnant front to the south. Will carry 30-50% pops along/south of I-64 by this afternoon with slight chc pops north of I-64 and dry wx as far NE as the lower MD eastern shore. Highs today in the mid/upr 80s to low 90s. Scattered showers and evening tstms for tonight, mainly southern two thirds. Lows tonight in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The weak boundary lingers across SE VA/coastal NC Saturday. Although not an exact repeat of today, Saturday`s wx may end up quite similar with mainly diurnally favored shwrs/tstms. Again will have highest pops 30-50% along/south of I-64...and slight chc pops NE. Variably cloudy and warm with highs in the mid/upr 80s. Most models showing period of limited convective potential Sat night into early Sun afternoon as low level flow becomes more SSW. A much more significant cold front will be approaching from the NW Sun afternoon as trough aloft sharpens across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Have increased POPs later Sun as that front crosses the mountains and nudges into the local area (PoPs 40-60%). Lows Sat night in the 70s. Highs Sun in the upr 80s to low 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front will push acrs the region and off the coast Sun ngt into Mon morning producing at least sctd showers and tstms. High pressure will then bld into and ovr the area for Mon thru Wed, then slides offshr during Thu. Expect Dry wx and comfortable temps and humidity levels Mon thru at least Wed, then dry and just slgtly warmer and a bit more humidity for Thu. Lows in the upr 60s to lower 70s Sun ngt, in the upr 50s to mid 60s Mon ngt, in the lower to mid 60s Tue ngt, and in the 60s Wed ngt. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Mon, Tue, and Wed, and ranging thru the 80s Thu. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak frontal boundary has located across North Carolina early this morning. Conditions are generally VFR, but some patchy MVFR fog is indicated in a few observations across the Piedmont. Scattered- broken mid to high clouds with decks at or above 12,000 feet remain over the area. Surface winds generally calm to light. Patchy fog is expected through the morning, but with little impact at the TAF sites. Will maintain VFR conditions through the morning. For today, the weak/diffuse boundary remains in the vicinity of North Carolina as high pressure remains west of the region. VFR conditions will prevail with scattered to broken afternoon cu around 4-6k feet above ground level. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening for southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Winds remain light, generally at or below 10 knots. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected again Saturday, before a cold front arrives late Sunday and Sunday night. More widespread rainfall is expected along the front. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak frontal boundary has located over North Carolina early this morning. The result is a light and variable wind over the waters. Seas generally 1-2 feet and waves 0-1 feet. Winds remain light over the waters today and tonight due to a weak pressure gradient. Flow will generally be south to southeast. Gradient strengthens Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front, with a southeast wind of 10-15 knots. Seas remain around 2 feet. Waves 1-2 feet. The front reaches the Mid Atlantic region Sunday, with a south wind of 10-15 knots Sunday afternoon. Some spatial and timing differences exist in the guidance with respect to the cold front, but there appears to be enough CAA to support SCA conditions late Sunday night into Monday morning. Seas build to 3-4 feet and waves 2-3 feet. High pressure builds over the Ohio Valley Monday and over the local waters Tuesday. Flow remains northerly 10-15 knots Monday and Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.