Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181909 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 309 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the southeast coast continues the warm and humid conditions through Monday. A cold front approaches from the west late Monday...then stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Another warm/humid afternoon across the FA...w/ sfc hi pres still located in the wrn Atlantic. Deeper layered SSW flo has resulted in a bit of drying (aloft) and much less coverage to convection. Averaging out partly sunny the rest of the day...will maintain about a 15% PoP for the (early) evening hours. Partly-mostly cloudy overnight...w/ lows in the u60s-l70s w to the m70s E.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Models show continued/gradual amplification of trough aloft through the Great Lakes Mon...pushing a cold front closer to the FA from the WNW. Models hold off on front pushing into WNW areas of FA until around/shortly after 00Z/20...then that front continues to press very slowly ESE...eventually stalling out over SE VA/NE NC Tue. Will increase PoPs WNW (to 60-80% in the afternoon) to ESE Mon (25-40% by late afternoon). Otherwise...partly sunny then mostly cloudy Mon. Going w/ PoPs 50-90% Mon night w/ the frontal passage...then taper off Tue NW (to 20% or less) while keeping 40-70% PoPs in SE VA/NE NC as the frontal boundary hovers over that portion of the FA. Partly sunny NW to mostly cloudy SE Tue. SPC has the Mid Atlantic area in a day 2 risk for possible severe storms (marginal/slight risk across AKQ FA...enhanced risk just N of the local area). Prime period of any strong/severe tstms (should there be any) would be after 20-22Z (and mainly NW 1/2 of FA) through the early evening. Meanwhile...heavy rain likely to become more of a concern by Mon night as the front slowly presses SE into the moisture laden air in place. Mentions of strong/severe tstms and heavy rain will remain in the HWO. Additional heavy rain possible in SE VA- NE NC Tue. Highs Mon in the u80s NW to l90s...m80s at the beaches. Lows Mon night 65 to 70F NW to the m70s SE. Partly sunny NW...mostly cloudy SE Tue w/ highs in the l-m80s. Frontal boundary lingers invof SE VA-NE NC Tue night into Wed...resulting in continued high PoPs (and possibly heavy rain). For NNW areas...Wed will be partly sunny. Highs in the m80s NW to the l80s SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A frontal boundary lingers in vicinity of the coastal plain of SE VA and the Carolinas Tuesday night/Wednesday resulting in some lingering 30-40% PoPs in those areas. Adjusted pops across the SE Tuesday evening upwards a bit based on the progged frontal position. The latest data supports relatively dry conditions Thursday then potential for diurnal convection Friday into next weekend but uncertainty is high at this time. Highs in the 80s Wednesday/Thursday, then maybe creeping back into the low 90s Friday/Saturday. Lows in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TAF sites have finally gone to VFR conditions after a morning of stratus clouds and MVFR conditions persised over the region. S-SW winds will gust up to 15-25 kt across the region today. Some scattered convection is possible through the afternoon and evening but the chances are less than the past couple of days. VFR conitions and a few clouds during the overnight with little fog expected due to increased gradient wind. Southerly flow may bring some sct/bkn clouds into the region generally above 3500 ft. A fairly strong cold front will move through the Ohio Valley this evening and into the Mid Atlantic region on Monday. The front will bring an increased chance for thunderstorms to the region. Some of these storms may be strong, especially in the late afternoon/evening portion of the day. Flight hazards may include strong gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning, along with lower ceilings and visibility. Outlook..Sct convection expected through mid week as the frontal boundary stalls across the area. && .MARINE... The pressure gradient tightens today ahead of a cold front that will push across the Midwest towards the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. South winds 5-15kt this morning will increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt coastal waters) this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft this morning will build to 4-6ft north of Cape Charles Light and 3-5ft south. Waves in Ches Bay will average 2ft this morning and then build to 3ft this afternoon with pockets of 4ft in the middle of the Bay. SCA flags are in effect for the nrn coastal waters with the rest going into effect at 100 PM this afternoon. A lull in SCA conditions should be anticipated for Currituck Sound and Ern VA rivers late tonight through Monday morning. However, the pressure gradient tightens up even more by Monday afternoon with the cold front closing in on the Appalachian mountains. A return to SCA conditions early Monday afternoon (S-SW winds 15-25kt all waters with gusts up to 30kt coastal waters) has resulted in an extension to SCA flags through Monday night Bay/Sound/Rivers and through Tuesday morning for coastal waters. Seas are expected to build to 5-7ft north of Cape Charles Light during this secondary surge. Waves still averaging 3ft. SCA conditions subside by Tuesday morning with SW winds diminishing below 15kt all waters, however SCA flags for coastal waters will continue through the morning due to seas being slightly slower to subside below 5ft. For Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week, generally southwest winds at sub-SCA speeds will prevail. Seas 2-4ft. Waves 1-3ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR LONG TERM...JDM/MPR AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...BMD

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