Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260800 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION TODAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIDEWATER AREA INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND FAR SE GA. NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FRONT, AS WELL AS SOME SCT SHRAS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE CONTINUED ISO TO SCT SHRA WORDING ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA FOR THIS MORNING, AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ALONG THE FRONT EARLY TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR RAIN CHCS TODAY, WITH HIGH RES MODELS STILL STRUGGLING TO DIAGNOSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVEN 3-6 HOURS OUT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING, THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN, AIDED BY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST, LIGHT SEABREEZE AND SHEARING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. BEST RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 30-40%) TODAY AGAIN APPEAR CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SE OF HWY 158 IN NE NC ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. DYNAMICS/SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL DON`T APPEAR TO FAVOR SEVERE WX TODAY, WITH PW SLOWLY DROPPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ALONG THE SE COAST BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN TONIGHT. FARTHER INLAND, ANOTHER DRY, PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EAST, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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STRONG SFC HI PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FM THE W THU/FRIDAY, WITH THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVING TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETUP BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN JUST OFFSHORE THU/FRI AS THE HI BCMS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC BY THU NGT/FRI. AS SUCH...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SIMILARLY PIVOT OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A 20 POP AT MOST ON THU ACROSS THE SE, WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. VAST MAJORITY OF OUR LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NR NORMAL...HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AND EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PD...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC SAT INTO SUN XPCD TO BRING SOME INCRS IN MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES...AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES (BY SUN).WILL BRING HIGHER POPS (25-40%) INTO THE FA...THEN WILL CONT W/ LINGER MNLY MNLY DIURNAL POPS ACRS THE FA MON AND TUE. TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE PD. HI TEMPS IN THE 80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE 60S TO ARND 70F.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1300Z THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INVOF A STALLED SFC COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS NE NC...PARTICULARLY TAF SITE KECG. MVFR CIGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTN. SHOWERS COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT GETS SHUNTED SEWD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF SHOWER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. && .MARINE...
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SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS... PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SHOWERS COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT GETS SHUNTED SEWD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE N-NE TODAY AOB 15KT...THEN BECOME PREDOMINANTLY ONSHORE THU INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE WITH SPEEDS AOB 15 KT ON AVERAGE. SOME BUILDUP OF SEAS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. OTHERWISE...WAVES 1-2FT/SEAS 2-3FT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...ALB

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