Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160200 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1000 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and an associated weak frontal boundary will slowly drop south into North Carolina later tonight into Wednesday. High pressure over the Great Lakes builds into the northeast and mid Atlantic region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. The high slides off the coast Thursday afternoon as the next low pressure systems moves through Ontario. A cold front affects the local area Friday afternoon into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Latest sfc analysis shows a sfc trough of low pressure over Ern/SE Va with the frontal bndry now rather diffuse over northern portions of the CWA. Hurricane Gert remains spinning well off the Carolina coast. Aloft, WSW flow prevails with an elongated shortwave stretching all the back into TN. Showers/tstms are dissipating quickly late this evening, with most of the lingering activity over S-central VA. This could propagate into NE NC through 04z (midnight) before gradually dissipating through 06z. PoPs of 30-40% PoPs will continue through midnight, with aob 20% elsewhere, and eventually PoPs will be less the 15% for most areas after 06z. Still warm/humid tonight, but somewhat cooler air filters in from the N late. Lows range from the upper 60s NW to the mid 70s SE. Have mentioned patchy fog after 06Z over much of the interior due to today`s rain and light winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... For Wed, chances of rain will be much lower, though will maintain 20-30% PoPs far S (mainly from the VA/NC border S) on Wed as the frontal boundary lingers not too far S and weak high pressure builds in from the N. Partly sunny Wed w/ highs upper 80s/around 90F inland...80-85F near the coast. Dry Thu with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then just a 20-30% chance for mainly aftn tstms. Highest PoPs west of I-95 across the Piedmont for any storms developing along the mtns that would drift east late in the aftn. Otherwise partly- mostly sunny with highs upper 80s/around 90F. Next front approaches from the W Fri as low pressure spins over the nrn Great Lakes. Some increase in moisture may allow for a low chc PoP Fri morning, but the greater chances will be in the aftn and beyond. Highs Fri upper 80s to lower 90s with higher humidity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal boundary will slowly drop acrs the region Fri night into early Mon morning. Will maintain 30-40% Pops for most of the area fm Fri night thru Sun, and 15-30% Pops for Sun night. At this time, will go with a mainly dry fcst for Mon thru Tue, as sfc high pressure builds into the area then off the coast. Highs will mainly range fm the mid 80s to arnd 90 thru the period. Lows will range fm the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The combination of a frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture is triggering sct showers/tstms across the region this evening. The latest trends suggests that ECG will have periodic IFR vsby in heavy rain through 01z, with shra/tsra in vicinity of RIC through 01z. The front will drop through the area overnight with the wind becoming NNE. In its wake, abundant low-level moisture will likely result in IFR stratus at most sites with a lesser probability at ORF. Vsby is expected to drop to 2-4sm at RIC/SBY/PHF/ECG. Stratus persists into the morning through about 14z, with gradually improving conditions through the day as weak high pressure builds into the region. Lingering low-level moisture and weak flow with high pressure in place will once again result in the potential for stratus/fog Thursday morning, with improving conditions Thursday aftn. A cold front approaches the region Friday and settles over the region Saturday/Sunday bringing another chance for showers/tstms Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, Hurricane Gert was located well off the NC coast and tracking NNE at around 10 mph. Also, a frontal boundary was laying acrs the area fm west to east. Winds were generally SE 5 to 15 kt outside of any stronger gusts fm tstms. Seas will build fm 3 to 4 ft to as high as 5 to 7 ft tonight into early Wed morning, due to increasing long period (SE) swells fm Gert. Otherwise, Gert will move well out into the Atlc late tonight into Wed night, with sfc high pressure building fm the ern Great Lakes twd New England. The high will slide off the coast Thu aftn into Thu night. A cold front will approach fm the west late Fri. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 kt or less thru Thu, then generally 10 to 15 kt over the area on Fri. Given sharp increase in long period swell (10-12 seconds, will have High Rip risk over southern beaches today...and Moderate Rip across the north. Will have at least Moderate Risk on Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...MAM

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