Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242155 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 555 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure off the Carolina coast tonight, will slowly track across the North Carolina coastal plain Tuesday, then continue northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area for the rest of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Latest MSAS shows low pressure just offshore from CHS with a coastal front extending NE to near HAT. Deep moisture flow around this cut off low continues to push waves of rain NNW into the wedged cool air. Latest high res model trends are for this to continue into this eve with the pcpn becoming more spotty light rain/drizzle after ss thru through 06Z. Airmass begins to recover from the wedge especially east of I95 where pcpn becomes more showery than stratiformed. Data also suggests a bit of (elevated) instability well north of the coastal front. Thus, will continue the high likely to cat pops all areas and keep thunder chcs east of I95 after midnight. Expect a general rain over the piedmont where wedge remains locked in place. Additional moisture arrives from the se late. Nearly steady temps with lows from the lwr 50s NW to the lwr 60s SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Models differ on exact track / intensity of the tropical moisture progged to get absorbed then rotate around the low Tues. NAM / ARW`s track seems a bit out of place (to far north) given the synoptic setup, thus leaned toward a GFS / SREF blend of taking the moistures center inland over the NC coastal Plain (merging both systems into one) by 18Z with the entire system then slowly lifting ne to a position near VA Beach Wed eve, then tracking ne from the Delmarva coast to just east of OXB by 12Z Wed. Cat pops all areas Tuesday with periods of mdt to lclly hvy rainfall shifting ne towards the ern shore by 21Z. Low thunder chcs ern half of fa with even some brightening or partial sun across the se as a dry slot may tend to cut off the deep moisture feed. Highs lwr 60s NW to low-mid 70s SE. Likey to cat pops cont Tue evening as the system slowly moves up the eastern shore. Pops taper off west to east after 06Z as the best moisture gets shunted towards the coast. Lows 55-60. Low pressure progged to move slowly away from the Delmarva coast Wed morning then gets pushed farther offshore after 18Z as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Kept low chc pops along coastal areas during the morning (wrap around moisture), otw decreasing cloudiness west to east. Milder with highs in the 70s, except mid- upr 60s along the eastern shore. Mainly clr and mild Wed nite. Lows upr 50s-mid 60s. Upr level ridge builds across the area in the wake of the departing low Thurs. Dry with summer-like temps expected. Highs in the mid-upr 80s west of the Bay, upr70s-lwr 80s along the coast. Headline wise, decided to not issue any flood headlines attm. QPF as of this writing has been around 2 inches on a line from AVC-RZZ, less than one inch elsewhere. Seems models have overdone QPF up to this point and have now shifted the heaviest QPF a bit farther to the west. Quick check with the countys reveal no water issues. Although another 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible there, 3-6 HR FFG levels are not expected to be reached. Could have some minor issues given lclly hvy rates Tues morning, best handled with short fused statements. Some 2+ inch amounts are also possible along the nrn Outer Banks in convection closer to the front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Long term period will feature above normal temps with mainly dry wx. For Thu night/Fri, deep SWly flow continues across the eastern seaboard as an upper-level ridge then builds in through the weekend allowing for warm temps and dry wx as most of the energy aloft will stay N and W of the local area. At most a 20% chance of a late day shra/tstm Fri and Sat. High temps Fri through Sun in the 80s, pushing near 90 Sat and Sun. Low temps in the mid/upr 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Degraded aviation conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period as a complex low pressure system lifts along the southeast coast. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to continue through the forecast period with even the potential for a few pockets of LIFR ceilings. Periods of light to moderate rain showers will also allow for MVFR and potentially IFR visibilities at times, especially this evening and overnight. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially across NE NC, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. Northeast winds will increase this evening and overnight as the low approaches the area. Very windy conditions will be possible along the coast tomorrow morning with gusts potentially in excess of 30 knots. Outlook: Low pressure will strengthen near the Carolina coast tonight allowing for heavier rain and continued IFR conditions during the day on Tuesday. As low pressure moves up the coast, rain and degraded aviation conditions will begin to diminish by Wednesday. Dry weather is in store for Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the southeast states. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deteriorating marine conditions for tonight as E/NE flow strengthens in response to sfc low pres developing near the SE coast in association with a mid-level cutoff low. Mainly 15-25 kt winds this eveng...increasing to 20-30 kt over the Bay and coastal wtrs after midnight. Seas build to 5-8 ft tonight. The sfc low slides up the NC coast through Tue, with gale warnings in effect for 35-40 kt gusts for the entire marine area except the Upr James/York/Rappahannock Rivers where gusts up to 30 kt are expected. Think much of the wind may stay aloft due to strong WAA, but with decent pres falls over the area, upgraded the northern Bay and Sound to gale warnings also. Seas up to 8-11 ft, with a high surf advisory remaining in effect for 8-9 ft waves in the surf zone. Marine conditions then steadily improve Wed into Thu as the sfc low pulls off to the NE, and a weak pres gradient is expected on the back side of the low.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Current tidal departures are averaging around 1 to 1.5 feet in the lower Bay and southern coastal waters due to ongoing onshore flow. Have issued another round of coastal flood statements for the high tide cycle tonight. Levels are expected to stay below minor flooding thresholds. Increasing easterly flow ahead of low pressure lifting over the Carolinas tonight will push tidal departures toward 2 feet Tuesday morning. Depending on the exact track of the low, high end minor to low end moderate coastal flooding is possible Tuesday night. Departures subside Wednesday as low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast and flow becomes offshore.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ017-102. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099- 100. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-654-656- 658. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.