Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 241129
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
729 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morng, sfc low pressure was sitting well off the New
Jersey coast. That low will move away to the ne during today just
off the New England cst. One last piece of energy/associated lift
on the back side of the departing low will provide slgt to chc
pops for showers ovr the nrn and ern portions of the region thru
abt 8 or 9 am. Otherwise, expect increasing sunshine and warmer
temps acrs the area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. In
that warmth, lingering weak instabilty, and one last upr lvl
disturbance rotating thru behind the upr trof, there could be an
isltd shower or tstm this aftn.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.
High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc lo pres off the mdatlc cst will cont to track ne and away fm
the rgn through tda. Drier air fm the W sloly spreads ovr the fa
through tda...resulting in VFR conds. Very lo prob for isold tstm
ern VA...lwr SE MD this aftn/early eve. A much more summer like
pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some fog at night
especially with all of the moisture from recent rains.
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond
1. 9.13" 1889
2. 8.98" 1873
3. 8.87" 1972
4. 8.67" 1886
5. 8.59" 2003
6. 8.41" 2016 (to date)