Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140655 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 255 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England through Saturday as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the Carolina coast. A cold front passes through the region Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Maintaining likely PoPs across portions of southeast VA/interior NE NC through the next few hrs with mainly just 20-40% PoPs elsewhere as drizzle will be more likely than measurable rain. Some additional amounts of 0.10" to 0.20" possible in areas of SE VA/NE NC, otherwise additional QPF will be a trace to a few hundredths. Low level CAD wedge firmly in place...maintaining low CIGs (ST) through tonight. After midnight, mainly just areas of drizzle (and some fog though vsbys should remain above 1SM for the most part). Will keep 30-40% PoPs for eastern 1/3 of the CWA and 20% or less farther inland. Lows tonight from the m-u50s WNW to the m-u60s far SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Not confident in amount of erosion to the CAD wedge (and cloudy/damp wx) Saturday (esp into early this afternoon...and potentially most of the day ern portions) due to very limited mixing...and weak sfc trough (lingering over E and SE portions of local area). Have stayed pessimistic with cloud cover Sat w/ best possibility there`s partial clearing (sooner) (well) inland. PoPs Sat blo 15% W...20-30% toward the coast...w/ highs mainly 75-80F. Expecting drying Sat night-Sun as low level flow becomes SSW ahead of a cold front tracking to the mtns by late in the day (Sun). With clearing...Sun turns out warmer...with PoPs aob 14%. Lows Sat night in the l-m60s inland...m-u60s near the coast. Highs Sun in the l-m80s. The cold front crosses the mtns Sun night...then continues to press ESE through the local area Mon (reaching far SE VA-NE NC by late in the day). Some subtle timing differences in the models (GFS generally faster). Becoming mostly cloudy and begin to raise PoPs NW 1/2 after midnight Sun night...while remaining mainly partly cloudy SE. Mainly cloudy Mon...w/ highest PoPs Mon (40-60%) NW 1/2 of the FA Mon morning...shifting to the SE 1/2 in the afternoon (w/ slow clearing possible NW). Lows Sun night in the m50s NW to the l-m60s far SE. Highs Mon in the m-u60s...except around 70F in NE NC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front is expected to clear the area Monday night into early Tuesday. A few showers may linger in the far southeast into early Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with much cooler and drier air being ushered into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler than what we have become accustomed too with temperatures only in the mid 60s. By Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s for many locations away from the coast. Drier and cooler weather is expected to last through the extended period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period with highs reaching the mid 70s by Friday. It should be noted that while these values will feel much cooler, temperatures will be close to normal for mid October. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Widespread stratus and areas of light rain and drizzle, associated with onshore flow and weak low pressure off the Outer Banks, continue to impact the region early this morning. Cigs range between 400-600ft, with vsby generally varying between 2-6sm. This area of low pressure gradually lifts nwd off the coast today, and then dissipates this evening. Conditions will be slow to improve today as moisture remains abundant below 5kft, with SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG likely retaining IFR cigs into the aftn, and RIC improving to MVFR. A N/NE wind will generally range from 6-12kt. Cigs begin to improve this evening as the low dissipates and N/NE low-level flow becomes SSW. The wind will remain light Saturday night, so areas of fog and stratus potentially redevelop as low-level moisture remains abundant. High pressure returns Sunday into Sunday evening with conditions improving to VFR. A cold front then pushes across the area Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing the potential for showers. The wind will become NNW behind the front with gusts up to 25kt possible in the wake of the front Monday morning and continuing into the aftn. High pressure and a drier airmass spread into the region Monday night through Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... The combination of high pressure off the New England coast and weak low pressure just off the NC coast continued to produce NE winds 15 to 25 kt acrs most of the waters late this aftn. NE or E winds will diminish later this evening into early Sat morning, as the high pushes farther into the nrn Atlc and the low weakens even more. So, SCA winds/waves in the Ches Bay and lower James will end this evening/tngt, but SCA`s will continue for the coastal zns thru late Sat night due to seas remaining at 5 ft or higher. Improving conditions Sun with S/SW winds of 10-15 kt. The next cold front progged to move acrs the waters Sun night into Mon morning, with a rather impressive CAA surge noted behind it for Mon into Tue. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures still averaging 1.5 to 2.0 feet above normal across much of the region this evening, but currents data at the mouth of the Bay shows outgoing tide dominance so should see falling departures in the Bay overnight/Sat. Seas/winds off the coast are also diminishing so would also expect slowly falling departures for locations adjacent to the Ocean. Coastal flood advisories remain in effect for areas along the middle/upper Bay and upper James river to cover the current high tide cycle. Farther south and for Ocean locations, high tide has passed so the advisories were allowed to expire. Given the trends, and with the next high tide Sat morning being the lower of the two astronomically, additional tidal flooding appears unlikely though next shift will need to monitor this closely. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ632>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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