Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240802 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 402 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST GOES WV SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING OUT UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO OUR NW...AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NJ BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN KY. SEEING SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN VA/NC, WITH A FEW ISO SHRAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN AKQ PIEDMONT COUNTIES AT 08Z. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFING TO THE WEST WL NUDGE THE STALLED SFC FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z/24 NMM BOTH SUGGEST SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA NOW THROUGH MID MORNING, DROPPING SE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY SLOWING NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT. REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL...OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND SOUTH US-58 CORRIDOR OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SE VA INTO NE NC. DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THIS AREA AND WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE/UVV ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, BUT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH TRAINING STORMS AS THE SLOWING BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING...PW`S IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE SHOULD YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH DEEP LYR SW FLOW ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO BEST FORCING LEADING TO A CONCERN FOR TRAINING STORMS/RAINS. TEMPS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY NORTH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. CUT BACK HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY (MID 80S), WHILE KEEPING SE COUNTIES IN THE UPR 80S TO ~90 DEG. TONIGHT... BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S, WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON/TUE. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC HI PRES LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND A FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF A PREFRNTAL TROF OVR THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN/EVENG...SLY WINDS OVR THE BAY WILL RISE TO 10-15 KT...JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT FOR NRN CSTL WTRS. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS ON THU...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW...AND STAYING SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRNT DUE TO VERY WEAK CAA. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT OVR CSTL WTRS. NEXT COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON/MON NGT. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MAS EQUIPMENT...

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