Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191924 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 324 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LO PRES WILL CONT TO SWIRL JUST OFF THE GA/SC CST THROUGH TNGT WHILE HI PRES SETTLES SE INTO NEW ENG. AS XPCD...RA CONTG TO DIMINISH ACRS SRN VA...HRR HANGS ONTO SCT -RA FM EXTREME SE VA TO CSTL NE NC THROUGH THIS EVE. WILL CONT TO KEEP LO POPS ACRS PORTIONS OF NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF THE NGT. OTRW...DRYING FM THE N WILL LEAD TO CLEARING N-S (TO NR THE VA-NC BORDER)...THOUGH BKN CI MAY LINGER. NE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY (TO ABT 25 KT) NR THE CST...ESP S. LO TEMPS FM THE L40S INLAND AND ON PARTS OF THE ERN SHORE...TO THE M/U40S IN CSTL SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LO PRES WILL CONT TO BE SLO TO MOVE E OF THE SE CST INTO MON. COMBO OF THAT LO AND SFC HI PRES E OF NEW ENG WILL BE CONTD LO LVL FLO FM THE NE. SGFNT AMT OF CLDNS XPCD TO RMN OVR MNLY CSTL SE VA-NE NC THROUGH SUN...WHILE ELSW AVGS P/MSNY. ONSHORE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY (TO 25-30 KT) NR/AT THE CST. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM 55 TO 60 AT THE CST...TO 65 TO 70F INLAND/PIEDMONT. UPR LVL RDG BUILDS OVR THE RGN SUN NGT THROUGH MON W/ LO PRES CONTG TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. IMPROVING CONDS XPCD OVR CSTL NE NC (ALBEIT SLOLY)...W/ CLR-PCLDY WX ELSW. CDFNT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON AFTN...CONTS TO THE E (AND OVR THE MTNS TUE MRNG). THAT FNT BRINGS INCRSG CLDNS FM W-E TUE...ALG W/ NEXT CHC AT RA. MOST OF IF NOT ALL PCPN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTN W...AND EVE E ON TUE. CONTG W/ SLGT CHC TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS WEAKENING W/ TIME AS FNT ENTERS THE RGN. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE M40S TO ARND 50. HI TEMPS TUE RANGING FM 75 TO 80F INLAND...TO THE U60S TO L70S AT THE CST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. SRN STREAM ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUES AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST TUES EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA...A WEAKER LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT FOR AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIP WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS LOW LEVEL H85 FLOW INCREASES. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...LITTLE CAPE/LIFT IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER AND MODEST SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE TUES AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN NWLY FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDS SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (TO NEAR 80 INLAND) THANKS TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER WEDS- THURS BEHIND THE FRONT (NW-W WINDS) WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S EXCEPT THURS MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CURRENTLY NOTING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE COASTAL SITES, WITH SOME LCL IFR IMPACTING ECG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PERSIST OVER THE FA THROUGH SAT. SWATH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS FALLING FROM A 6-8KFT DECK, SO EXPECT A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AT PHF/ORF IN -RA OR SPRINKLES. VCSH F0R A FEW MORE HRS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS REACHING TAF SITES AFTER 08Z SAT. NORTHERN TERMINALS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SEE ANY PRECIP, BUT DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRAS TO RIC BETWEEN 10-15Z BEFORE DRYING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE THE NW, HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS AND ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER, EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PERSIST AT ORF/ECG THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK: NE FLOW CONTINUES SAT NGT THOUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE (AT THE SFC AND ALOFT) OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH E-NE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SCA MAINLY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, AND AN SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR TODAY OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND WITH THIS PACKAGE. FLAGS FOR THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILDS E-NE THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (AS 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK). FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY THE YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK BY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NE-E FLOW TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 4-6 FT SUNDAY, LIKELY BUILDING TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) AS NE WINDS INCREASE LATER SUN AND EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING GRADIENT. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE FOURTH PERIOD (SUNDAY NGT) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. FLOW RETURNS TO THE E-SE MON NIGHT AS LOW EXITS AND GRADIENT SLACKENS. WINDS VEER S-SW BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON-EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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