Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222017 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 417 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides father off the mid Atlantic coast tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday, then slowly push through the local area on Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday...as low pressure lingers from the Great Lakes to New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Current analysis indicates ~1030 mb sfc high pressure centered off the NJ coast w/ upper level ridge axis aligned N-S invof ern seaboard. Another warm/mostly sunny day across the region, though some SCT cu have developed with sfc dew pts a bit higher than the past few days. Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. During Mon...low pressure deepens over the deep South/lower MS Valley while a strong upper ridge remains in place slides just off the East Coast. Still warm/mainly dry through Mon...increasing PoPs limited to (well) W of I 95 toward late aftn/early evening. Highs in the u70s E to the l-m70s W (where clouds begin to thicken in the afternoon). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest 12Z/22 GFS/NAM/ECMWF remain fairly similar w/ the overall timing of the next cold front...now depicting the best lift/forcing for likely to categorical PoPs (60-90%) from about 06Z/Tue through 16Z/Tue (lingering into Tue evening along the ern shore). Strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in the 60s...will allow for some locally heavy downpours and isolated tstms late Mon night/Tue morning...mainly for southern/SE VA/NE NC. While a few strong storms/gusty winds will be possible, severe threat looks limited due to unfavorable timing. Partial clearing expected Tue by late morning W and by late aftn E...and have continued w/ lowering PoP trend W-E. Still mild through Tue w/ lows Mon night in the 60s...then highs Tues in the 70s to near 80 F SE as cold air lags well behind off to the NW of the local area. Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any RA tapers pushes off the coast Tue evening. Temperatures falling from the 60s in the evening to 50F inland and upper 50s closer to the coast by Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45F inland and 45F to around 50F by morning. On Wed, area looks to remain in between the sfc cold front well offshore and deeper moisture/cold pool aloft to our WNW. Enough instability present to keep skies partly to mostly cloudy, but will keep the forecast dry attm. Cooler with highs mainly from the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry conditions Wed night as exiting cold front moves well offshore. Light showers possible (mainly Delmarva) Thu morning as upper trough swings through the region. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail Thu through at least Sat as sfc high pressure builds in from the SW Thu and shifts off the Mid Atlantic Coast during Fri. The high then tracks up off the New England Coast for Sat. Model consensus diverges Sat night into Sun. ECMWF has a coastal low developing near the area...while the GFS not only has a coastal low developing near the area but also a deepening sfc low over the Great Lakes Region into Ontario. Incoming precip differs greatly between models, therefore have leaned closer to climatology during this time. Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed night with lows in the 40s (upper 30s possible far NW counties). Temps slow to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64F. High pressure slides into the region Thu night and then temperatures slowly moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50F beaches). Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F. Lows Fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-55F immediate coast. Highs Sat in the lower 70s (upper 60s beaches). Lows Sat night generally in the 50s (upper 40s Eastern Piedmont). Highs Sun generally in the upper 60s to around 70F (mid 60s Eastern Piedmont). && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sfc high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast attm and will have VFR conditions through the evening hrs. Additional fog possible late tonight/early Mon morning, but will probably be a bit more inland than past few nights (less at ECG) as some mixing is expected closer to the coast. Becoming VFR after 13Z/Mon with somewhat breezy SSE winds near the coast. A cold front is forecast to track through the region Mon night through Tue morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and low CIGs. Mainly VFR Tue aftn/eve through Thu. && .MARINE... High pressure will slide farther into the Atlc tonight into Mon morning, allowing a frontal boundary with low pressure areas riding nwrd along it to push ewrd thru the OH and TN valleys. Expect ESE then SE winds arnd 10 kt or less this evening into Mon morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft and Seas 2 to 3 ft. That frontal boundary and associated low pressure areas will approach fm the west late Mon thru Tue, then push acrs the waters and offshore Tue night into Wed morning. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing SE then S flow ahead of the front later Mon thru Tue morning, then shifting to the WNW behind the front Tue night into Wed morning. Have issued Small Craft Advisories for all the waters fm Mon night into at least early Tue aftn (for the Rivers), then lingering SCA`s thru Tue aftn/early Tue evening for the Ches Bay and Currituck Snd. Will have SCA`s for the coastal waters fm Mon night thru Wed. S winds of 15-25 kt with higher gusts will occur Mon night into Tue evening. Seas will build to 5-9 ft with waves of 3-4 ft in the Ches Bay likely. W to NW winds 10-15 kt expected Wed night thru Thu, as the front pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into the area fm the west. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG

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