Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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515 FXUS61 KAKQ 210859 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area this morning will weaken and slide offshore later today as a frontal boundary stays just off to the south. Low pressure over the nations mid section will intensify as it slowly tracks east across the Mid Atlantic region Sunday and Monday. The intense low will move off the New England coast Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest sfc analysis shows 1014 mb hi pres directly over the Mid Atlc with a stationary front stretched across the Carolinas. With light winds and plentiful low-level moisture, low stratus is widespread across the region with areas of fog as well. This is expected to continue through mid to late morning without any mechanism to scour out the moisture. Dry wx this morning, with approaching WAA and shortwave energy aloft leading to showers psbl over SW areas late in the daytime period, with most other locations expected to stay dry. Hi temps in the mid-upr 50s. Best timing for the approaching slug of moisture and forcing will be this eveng across the area, and have increase PoPs to likely-categorical southern half of area, with chance PoPs remainder of area. With a break in the pcpn overnight and light winds, could see another round of patchy DZ/FG so added this to the forecast as well, through mid morning Sunday. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s NE to lwr 50s SW. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Tricky forecast continues for the short term period. Following any morning DZ/FG Sun, PoPs quickly ramp up through the day Sun as strong sfc low pressure and shortwave energy aloft approach from the west. Increasing PW`s will result in moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Likely-categorical PoPs. Warm frontal boundary progged to drift north to near the NC-VA border so will have chc thunder across southern half of fa during the afternoon with decent shear as well. High temps upr 50s north to mid 60s south, but temps could easily end up higher or lower. Models continue to have trouble with the stacked upr-level low progged to slowly cross the region late Sunday night and Monday. Categorical pops for shwrs Sunday night. Lows upr 40s/mid 50s. At some point in time, a triple point low is forecasted to cross Virginia. Current timing is Monday afternoon which will continue to produce widespread shwrs across the north with a dry slot potentially cutting off pcpn across parts of the area Monday afternoon. However, enough instability is noted to keep thunder mentioned across the SE in the warm sector. Highs mid 50s to lwr 60s. QPF through Monday should average one to two inches with locally higher amounts possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper low pressure lifts northeastward away from the region Monday night and Tuesday, with precipitation chances winding down by Tuesday morning. High pressure is expected to return Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front associated with an upper low lifting over eastern Canada is progged to push across the region late Wednesday night and Thursday. Will hold onto slight chc to low chc pops (20-30%) during this time. High pressure returns again next Friday with temperatures falling back below normal for this first time in awhile. Highs Tuesday mostly in the 50s. Highs Wednesday from the mid 50s Eastern Shore to the low 60s inland. Thursday`s highs back in the 50s, then cooling into the 40s next Friday. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread sub-VFR conditions to start off the 06Z TAF period. With a weak warm front in the vicinity, light/calm winds, and abundant low-level moisture, low-stratus is prevalent with pockets of low vsbys as well. Expect mainly IFR/LIFR conditions through early/mid-morning, with improving cigs not until late in the morng/aftn as winds become southerly and the next low pres systm approaches from the sw. There will be a good chance for showers tonight as aviation conditions again deteriorate. OUTLOOK...Periods of rain, moderate to heavy at times, Sunday through Monday will be accompanied by IFR conditions. As low pressure moves off to the northeast...dry weather and a clearing sky is indicated for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds remain E aob 10kt this afternoon into this evening before becoming NE and N tonight. Long period swell will keep seas between 3-4 ft into this evening. Winds become E then SE Saturday with speeds remaining 10kt or less. Seas 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. Winds become SE 10-15 kt on Sunday as the first of two low pressure systems impact the region. Seas build to 3-4 ft, except up to 5 ft southern outer waters. The second low pressure system begins to impact the region Sunday night with winds remaining 10-15 kt, except increasing to 20-25 kt north of Chincoteague early Monday morning. A brief period of gale gusts is possible early Monday morning across the northern coastal waters. However, models continue to push the highest wind threat further north into DE/NJ. Seas 3-5 ft across the south Sunday night, building to 5-8 ft off Ocean City by early Monday morning. Low pressure lifts north through the interior Mid- Atlantic during Monday before lifting north of the area on Tuesday. Winds will vary from SE to SW 10-15 across much of the marine area Monday, while generally remaining E across the northern coastal waters and diminishing through the day from 20-25 kt down to 15 kt. Seas build to 6-10 ft north while remaining 3-5 ft south. Winds become NW all waters on Tuesday with SCA conditions probable, especially for the coastal waters. Seas 4-8 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...JDM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.