Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261744 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1244 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A SUNNY SKY, LIMITED MIXING AND A LIGHT SW WIND (LOCALLY NE FOR THE NRN OUTER BANKS) WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LIMITED MIXING AND A LIGHT SW WIND IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY. LIMITED MIXING WILL OFFSET WARMING AT 850MB SO ~10C TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 2-4F WARMER SATURDAY RANGING FROM 55-60 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. 24/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A TREND THAT KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN REMAINS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LKLY POP WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD/LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHEARING SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING, THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH RAIN BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN ZONES. GIVEN LOW POPS AND QUICK DRYING ALOFT ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS BY THAT TIME, HAVE HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALLOW FOR DRIER WX FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC, COLD 1050+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. KEPT SILENT POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH ECMWF`S DEPICTION OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST FROM WHAT WOULD THEN BE A CUTOFF (OR AT LEAST CLOSED) LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR TEMPS, HIGHS AVERAGE OUT ABOVE AVG FOR THE PERIOD, BUT GRADUALLY BEGIN TO COOL BELOW CLIMO BY NEW YEAR`S DAY AS STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SINCE SYNOPTIC WINDS ARE SO LIGHT...WINDS OVER THE LOWER BAY HAVE TURNED TO THE EAST IN A FASHION SIMILAR TO A SEA BREEZE IN THE SUMMER ALTHOUGH A RATHER WEAK ONE. THIS HAS CAUSED THE WINDS AT ORF TO TURN TO THE NE. THESE WINDS AND THOSE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT S/SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF IFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. && .MARINE... THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE 2 FT OR LESS. IN THE BAY...A WIND FIELD SIMILAR TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO THE VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC FIELD AND THE FACT THAT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OVER LAND. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST OFFSHORE THRU SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT SLY FLOW AOB 10 KT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SUN INTO MON. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE MON AS FLOW BECOMES NLY. LACK OF CAA AND RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT POST FRONTAL WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SUB-SCA MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT MON-MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EQUIPMENT... DOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...SAM/LSA EQUIPMENT...

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