Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290538 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW- LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%) WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID- ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW. 28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29: RIC...22/1923 ORF...25/1982 SBY...18/1923 ECG...24/1982 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA MARINE...SAM CLIMATE...

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