Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011100 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 700 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OFFSHORE. THE FRONT STAYS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1023 MB HI PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NE CST AND AN INVERTED TROF OF LO PRES OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS TROF WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC CST THRU THE DAY...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO RAIN LIKELY OVR MUCH OF THE AREA (EXCEPTION IS THE LWR ERN SHORE WITH 30-50% POPS). DIFFICULT TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THRU THE DAY...BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF SHRAS WITH THUNDER PSBL AS WELL. NO SVR WX ANTICIPATED WITH PARAMETERS NOT FAVORABLE. MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PRECIP TO START IN SOME AREAS WITH STILL DRY LO LEVELS WHICH WILL MOISTEN TOP DOWN. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY- CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED/RATHER WET PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE FCST AREA TNGT THRU AT LEAST SUN...AS TROF ALOFT SITS OVR THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS WHILE A FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE CST OR JUST INLAND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE/LIFT...ESPLY WHEN WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVE NNE ALONG THE FRNTL BOUNDARY...WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM ALL LOCATIONS FM THIS EVENG THRU AT LEAST SUN. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES...TNGT THRU SUN AS PWATS ARE FCST TO BE BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN OVR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STALLED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 31/12Z GFS REMAINS THE WESTERN-MOST AND HENCE WETTEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE 31/12Z ECMWF/CMC HAVE THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...30-40% POPS (HIGHEST E) WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW-SE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 80S MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER 80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NOTED ON RADAR...NOT MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN HAS FALLEN EAT OF I95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE PCPN N & E THRU OUT THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT A TEMPO IN AT RIC FOR NEXT SVRL HRS. ADDED VCSH TO COASTAL TAF SITES AS ONLY R- XPCTD THERE. SCT SHWRS WILL BE PSBL WITH ISLTD LATE AFTRN / EVE TSTRMS DVLPNG... BUT TIMING THESE RATHER PROBELMATIC ATTM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFFERENCES. THUS...KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM WITH VFR CIGS XPCTD DURING THE DAY (CU BTWN 4-5K FT). ADDNTL MOISTURE OVESPRADS THE FA AFTER 00Z BUT INDICTAED CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE FCST PRD. NAM/GFS INDICATING SOME IFR CIGS WITH RAIN PSBL LATE IN THE FCST PRD. OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SAT/SUN AS MOISTURE RAMPS UP. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHRAS AND TSTMS SAT AFTN AND SUN. && .MARINE... AN INVERTED TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND THIS WEEKEND. NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. THAT BEING SAID...A PERSISTANT SE FLOW RESULTS IN SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST 20-40 NM OUT. WINDS BECOME S-SW BY MONDAY AS ENTIRE SYSTM PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK OVER SOUTHERN BEACHES TODAY GIVEN A E-SE SWELL AND 2 FT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEARSHORE WAVES. THE MODERATE THREAT WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR

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