Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241049 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 649 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the local area today. The front stalls over the Carolinas for Sunday and Monday. Otherwise...high pressure builds into the local area from Sunday through mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quite warm/humid attm over the FA w/ gusty SW winds to 20-30 kt. Remnant circulation of Cindy passing by N of the FA...invof Mason-Dixon line. That circulation exits the coast of NJ later this morning. Its associated/trailing cold front will be entering/crossing the FA today...slowing down at it presses into SE VA-NE NC this afternoon. Split in rainfall occurring over the FA attm...will have lo PoPs for most areas through about 13-15Z/24 (esp E of I 95). Watching narrow line of tstms tracking E through W central NC...if hold together...may affect NE NC. early this morning. Drying/lowering of dewpoints on W winds expected over at least NW 1/2 of FA during today. Per usual...drying likely to be delayed near the coast/over SE VA-NE NC as the cold front slows down over that area this afternoon. Averaging out partly sunny over the FA today (maybe a little better NW 1/2). Enough instability w/ the front invof the area for inclusion of ISOLD/SCT tstms to possibly develop over far srn-SE VA/NE NC...mainly after 21Z/24. Highs today in the u80s-l90s...even at most beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front for tonight and Sunday...resulting in a pleasant end to the weekend wx-wise. Lows tonight in the l60 NW...m-u60s inland...l70s SE. Dewpoints will lower into the l60s NW to l70s far SE. Any convection SE wanes tonight...w/ any lingering spotty rain along the Albemarle Sound coming to an end Sun morning. Meanwhile...the rest of the local area will remain dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and evening Sun...w/ highs in the m-u80s (l80s beaches)...and dewpoints in the u50s NW to m60s SE. Comfortable wx Sun night with lows in the u50s NW to m-u60s SE. Secondary cold front approaches from the WNW Mon...entering the (NW portions of the) local area in the evening. Will result in conditions becoming partly cloudy...and would not rule ISOLD SHRAs far N late in the day. Highs in the l80s (u70s at the beaches). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The secondary cold front crosses the area Mon night. Isolated SHRAs possible near the coast (esp on the eastern shore)...otherwise the fropa should be dry due to a lack of significant moisture. Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue night/Wed behind a mid- level trough pushing offshore. Dry again for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Periods of MVFR cigs through mid morning...except at RIC w/ gusty SW winds to 30-35 kt...becoming less gusty by late morning into the afternoon. The remnant circulation of Cindy exiting the NJ coast this morning...its associated/trailing cold front crosses the local area today/this evening. Narrow bands of SHRAs w/ brief downpours to E of SBY by 13Z. The cold front to settle across SE VA-NE NC this evening...w/ possible ISOLD-SCT SHRAs or tstms after 21-23Z/24 invof ORF/ECG. With such lo prob attm...will only carry VCSH and BKN CIGS aoa 5kft for now. VFR conditions Sun-early next week as high pressure builds back into the region.
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&& .MARINE... No changes to SCA headlines this morning. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt w/ gusts to 30kt will continue thru mid/late morning before diminishing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft currently will build to 4-5 ft south/5-6 ft north around daybreak, then gradually subside back below 5 ft by late morning south and later this afternoon north. An extended period of benign marine conditions is then expected from tonight through the middle of next week. Winds become N/NW around 10 kt behind a cold front tonight/Sunday morning, then variable less than 10 kt later Sunday into Monday. Waves 1-2 ft over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB/MAS AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM

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