Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 141454
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1054 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England this
afternoon as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the
coast. This area of high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic
coast late tonight into Sunday. A cold front passes through the
region late Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure builds
into the region Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments to the fcst necessary attm. Conditions have
changed very little the past 24 hours. Near 1030mb sfc hi pres
remains centered invof Nova Scotia and ridging back to the SW
across srn New England and into the Blue Ridge region of VA/NC.
Meanwhile...weak lo pres is situated immediately off the coast
of the Outer Banks. The weak low off the coast is expected to
lift nwd through this afternoon while gradually weakening. today
and gradually weaken. Moisture remains trapped/stubborn aob
900mb...and any erosion will be difficult...esp from the i 95
corridor on E. Partial clearing may start to occur over the
Piedmont by late afternoon...otherwise remaining cloudy w/
15-30% -RA/DZ...esp ern portions. Highs in the l-m70s...w/
u70s-around 80F over the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A drying trend is expected later tonight into Sunday, as the
weak low dissipates, and the strong high off the New England
coast settles swd off the Mid-Atlantic coast resulting in SSW
low- level flow. This will produce unseasonably warm conditions
by Sunday (although not as humid) with the sky becoming mostly
sunny. High temperatures Sunday will be in the low/mid 80s,
after morning lows in the low/mid 60s.

The cold front crosses the mountains Sunday night, and then
continues to press ESE through the local area late Sunday night
into Monday morning, passing through far SE VA/NE NC late Monday
morning per 14/00z model consensus. Becoming mostly cloudy over
the NW half of the area after Midnight Monday, while remaining
partly cloudy SE. Models depict a narrow band of lift with the
front, with the highest PoPs 40-60% across the NW portion of the
area late Sunday night, and then shifting to the SE portion of
the area Monday morning through midday. Lows Sunday night range
from the mid 50s NW, to the low/mid 60s SE. Highs Monday will
generally be in the mid/upper 60s, and temperatures may remain
steady across SE VA/NE NC, or slowly fall a few degrees Monday
morning through midday with clouds/pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front is expected to clear the area Monday night into
early Tuesday. A few showers may linger in the far southeast
into early Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday into Wednesday with much cooler and drier air being
ushered into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be much cooler
than what we have become accustomed too with temperatures only
in the mid 60s. By Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into
the low to mid 40s for many locations away from the coast. Drier
and cooler weather is expected to last through the extended
period with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and
50s. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the period
with highs reaching the mid 70s by Friday. It should be noted
that while these values will feel much cooler, temperatures will
be close to normal for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread stratus and areas of light rain and drizzle,
associated with onshore flow and weak low pressure off the
Outer Banks, continue to impact the region early this morning.
Cigs range between 400-600ft, with vsby generally varying
between 2-6sm. This area of low pressure gradually lifts nwd off
the coast today, and then dissipates this evening. Conditions
will be slow to improve today as moisture remains abundant below
5kft, with SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG likely retaining IFR cigs into the
aftn, and RIC improving to MVFR. A N/NE wind will generally
range from 6-12kt. Cigs begin to improve this evening as the low
dissipates and N/NE low-level flow becomes SSW.

The wind will remain light Saturday night, so areas of fog and
stratus potentially redevelop as low-level moisture remains
abundant. High pressure returns Sunday into Sunday evening with
conditions improving to VFR. A cold front then pushes across the
area Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing the potential
for showers. The wind will become NNW behind the front with
gusts up to 25kt possible in the wake of the front Monday
morning and continuing into the aftn. High pressure and a drier
airmass spread into the region Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The models are struggling to handle the winds associated with
the weak low off the NC coast. Guidance suggest that winds
should be diminishing over the waters already, but obs show that
winds are still in the 15 to 20 kt range over the lower Ches
Bay. So have amended the forecast to keep winds up for another 6
hours at low end sca levels on the Lower Bay. Seas are slowly
beginning to drop over the coastal waters, but expect to keep
the seas above 5 FT through the sca period, 6z Sunday. The
surface low will slowly elongate today and fill as the surface
high pressure system slides off the NE coast and gradually
reforms into more of a Bermuda High with Southerly flow
developing on Sunday. The S/SW flow will increase Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a strong cold front that
will sweep across the waters.

Behind this cold front, expect a strong surge of cool canadian
air to arrive. Expect small craft conditions to develop Monday
afternoon into Monday night. High pressure slides over the area
by Tuesday morning with winds relax below sca levels.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures still averaging 1.5 to 2.0 feet above normal
across much of the region this evening, but currents data at the
mouth of the Bay shows outgoing tide dominance so should see
falling departures in the Bay overnight/Sat. Seas/winds off the
coast are also diminishing so would also expect slowly falling
departures for locations adjacent to the Ocean. Coastal flood
advisories remain in effect for areas along the middle/upper
Bay and upper James river to cover the current high tide cycle.
Farther south and for Ocean locations, high tide has passed so
the advisories were allowed to expire. Given the trends, and
with the next high tide Sat morning being the lower of the two
astronomically, additional tidal flooding appears unlikely
though next shift will need to monitor this closely.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.