Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...


TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






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