Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
204 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA AT MIDDAY...AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH SKY CONDITIONS AVERAGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPR 80S...UPR 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

SFC HIGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, GRADUALLY
TURNING FLOW AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY. WILL CARRY 30-40%
POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 FOR THE AFTN HRS...LOWERING TO 20%
ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY SUNNY TUE W/ HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPR 80S
TO LOW/MID 90S.

NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVES SE THROUGH OH/TN VALLEY BY
WED...APPROACHING THE FA LATE (WED). AGAIN WILL HAVE 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE FA FOR WED AFTN. OTW...PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT/WED. LOW
TEMPS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS WED MAINLY
85-90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS.
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT...STALLING OVER THE
REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PERTURBATIONS IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE (PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.8 TO
2.0+ INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S). WILL RETAIN 30-40% POPS
DURING PEAK CLIMO TIMES...BUT TIMING OF BEST POPS WILL BE
DIFFICULT ATTM DUE TO TIMING PERTURBATIONS ALONG WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS AND FRI
AS H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF AROUND 15-17C. HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S INLAND
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WEDS AND THURS NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY SAT...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AMPLIFYING FLOW LIFTS THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NWD SAT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
THE NRN STREAM WAVE APPROACH THE REGION SAT...CROSSING THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED ATTM...SO WILL KEEP
POPS 10-20 PCT SAT AND SUN. RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR
THE COAST).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE E-SE TODAY SHFTNG TO SE-S TONIGHT INTO
TUE WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BRING A 20-30% CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLE
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AND INCREASED CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A NW WIND TO
DIMINISH...AND THEN BECOME S/SE BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH THEN BECOMES
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH THE WIND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND AVERAGING AOB 15KT. AN EXCEPTION HOWEVER IS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE BAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE DELMARVA TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF A 15-20KT S WIND ALONG WITH 2-
3FT WAVES. WIND SPEEDS REACH 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN AS WELL WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT OUT NEAR 20 NM N OF CHINCOTEAGUE. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALL OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ


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