Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ






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