Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 231905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

High pressure remains centered just offshore of the Southeast
Coast a surface cold front approaches the region
from the northwest. The remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy
will cross the region with the cold front on Saturday. The front
then stalls farther south off the Carolinas Sunday and Monday.


Latest analysis reflects surface cold front aligned from the
western Great Lakes back into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.
Low pressure...the remnants of TD Cindy now noted on early
afternoon VIS/IR satellite imagery lifting across the Mid-South
toward the lower Ohio River Valley. Regional radar mosaic
indicating some isolated light to moderate showers pushing
across the area at 18z. However, latest mesoanalysis indicating
a capping inversion in place across the area. Question for the
balance of the afternoon is how quickly can we can destabilize
that cap enough to tap into convective potential. Time-lagged
HRRR and CONShort blend has done well with convective trends so
far, and have leaned in its direction for the afternoon and
early evening.

Overall, expect mainly dry (albeit very warm and humid)
afternoon across the southern half of the area, with no real
discernible trigger and drier air filtering in from the coastal
Carolinas. Therefore, will go no higher than a 20% POP for
isolated shower or T-Storm. Farther north, cap should be strong
enough to prevent much more than scattered convection through
00z. Well-advertised low-level jet analyzed over E OH/W PA, and
should be far enough north to not have too much of an impact
with convective potential locally. Thus, pops have been tapered
down into 30-40% range over far nw zones (Cumberland, VA to
Tappahannock, VA to Salisbury, MD) for the afternoon. This area
already seeing a nice CU field developing, and CAMs are at least
a little bit more bullish on convective development up that way.
Otherwise, very warm, breezy and moderately humid for the rest
of this afternoon with highs in the u80s to low 90s for most
inland, low to mid 80s along the Atlantic coastal zones.


Rain chances in the short term mainly confined to late tonight
through Saturday night, as the remnants of Cindy get absorbed
and essentially merge into a frontal wave, lifting from the
Lower Ohio Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic late tonight
through Saturday afternoon.

Any scattered showers and storms quickly wane by early evening
with loss of heating. We are then mainly dry until after
midnight, as the surface front approaches from the NW, dragging
the remnants of TD Cindy across the local area along with it.
The front will supply enough lift for a narrow area of showers
and an isolated thunderstorm moving across the area after
midnight tonight into early Saturday morning. Short-lived
moderate to heavy showers would be efficient rainfall
producers, but any flooding concerns would be limited, as
showers should be progressive. Partly to mostly cloudy outside
of any showers, and turning breezy overnight as winds increase,
owing to tightening pressure gradient between approaching front
and Bermuda ridge offshore. Look for winds out of the SW to
gust to around 20-25 mph overnight. Early morning lows mainly
in the 70s.

Overall trend of 12z suite has been towards a more progressive
solution with the front and frontal wave (remnants of TD).
Behind this feature, models are in good agreement with shearing
the precip apart Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough
over the Midwest will slowly dig south and help to push the
front east across the the Bermuda High also retreats
to the east. Maintained 40-60% rain chances over the coastal
plain during this period for the afternoon and evening...and
into the overnight hours Sunday morning, as sct convection
develops as the front gets hung up across the SE Coast into the
Carolinas Sat afternoon and evening. Warm and muggy yet again
with highs Saturday generally in the upper 80s to around 90.

Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the
front for Sat night and Sunday, bringing a pleasant end to the
weekend wx-wise. Lows Saturday night in the low- mid 60s far
NW, upper 60s inland, lower 70s SE. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to
lower 70s SE. Lingering spotty convection along the Albemarle
Sound will come to an end Sunday morning with the rest of the
area remaining dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and
evening Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches),
and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Comfortable
sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to
upper 60s SE.


Cold front pushes offshore Saturday night, stalling along the
coast Sunday. Height falls ahead of a deepening upper level
trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday and remnant
moisture along the boundary will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across northeast North Carolina Sunday
afternoon. Drying inland. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 80`s. A
secondary front pushes into the region Sunday night and Monday.
Have only kept slight chance POPs inland Monday given limited
moisture. Highs in the low to mid 80`s. Potent shortwave digs
into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Monday night into
Tuesday with a stronger cold front pushing through the region
Tuesday. Moisture return along the coast will result in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Virginia.
Cooler Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70`s. Dewpoints
mix into the 50`s, resulting in pleasant afternoon conditions.
Dry and comfortable conditions forecast again Wednesday as the
trough pushes offshore and heights build over the Ohio Valley.
Surface high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs
Wednesday generally in the low 80`s. Cool Thursday morning, with
lows in the upper 50`s inland to mid 60`s near the coast. High
pressure slides offshore Thursday with return flow resulting in
moderating temperatures. Highs in the mid 80`s.


Generally am anticipating VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon
and evening. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings may be possible this
afternoon with a SCT-BKN 2500 foot cloud deck. High resolution
models continue to hint at a few showers and potentially a rumble of
thunder impacting northern and western portions of the region later
this afternoon. Any showers that do redevelop will be highly
scattered in nature, but may produce periods of MVFR. All
precipitation is expected to taper off after sunset. A cold front
approaches western portions of the region by 08Z bringing the next
chance for showers. The highest chance for rain will once again be
confined to northern and western portions of the region. Winds will
continue to be gusty this afternoon, occasionally gusting in excess
of 25 knots. Gusts to around 30 knots will be possible after
midnight as the cold front approaches the region and the gradient

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop Saturday
afternoon and evening, bringing the potential for Sub-VFR
conditions. Any shower activity comes to an end by early Sunday. A
return to VFR conditions is expected Sunday through early next week
as high pressure builds into the region.


High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast early
this morning as the remnant low that was formerly Cindy is
centered over AR as of 07z. High pressure will prevail off the
Southeast coast through Saturday. Meanwhile, the remnant low of
Cindy tracks through the Tennessee Valley today and tonight, and
then across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Saturday. Additionally, a cold
front will push into the Ern Great Lakes today into tonight.
This combined with the approach of the remnant low will result
in a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low-level
jet tonight through midday Saturday. A SW wind will average
10-15kt early today and then increase to 15-25kt across the nrn
Bay/nrn ocean zones this aftn, followed by a lull early this
evening. Given this, SCAs north of New Point Comfort and
Parramore Island will commence at 17z. A SW wind will then
increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt possible in the ocean/Bay)
across the entire marine area later this evening through the
overnight hours and through midday Saturday. SCAs for the
remainder of the area begin at 02z Saturday. Seas build to 5-7ft
north of Parramore Island late tonight into Saturday morning,
with 4-6ft out near 20nm north of Cape Charles, and primarily
3-4ft farther south with an offshore component to the wind.
Waves in the Bay build to 3-4ft late tonight into Saturday
morning. SCA conditions end Saturday as the wind diminishes and
seas gradually subside. A cold front pushes across the coast
Saturday night with a wind shift to NW. Sub SCA conditions are
expected due to a lack of CAA, Another cold front pushes across
the coast Monday night, with high pressure building over the
region through the middle of next week.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ632-634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.


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