Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALING ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED
SW TO NE FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OFF THE SE COAST, BUT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TODAY ON S-SE WIND
(BREEZY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
SFC HIGH WILL BRING A DRY/WARM MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW TO SCT AFTN CU. THICKNESS TOOLS REFLECTING
A MODEST BUMP UPWARD IN TEMPS COMPARED TO SUNDAY...ABOUT A
CATEGORY ON AVG. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...MID 80S SOUTH. CLEAR AND MILD
TONIGHT W/EARLY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THRU
TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TUE/WED. A WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPS LATE TUE...AND SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MTNS. HOWEVER, AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION TO HOLD
TOGETHER TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED/THU,
DAMPENING THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY. RESULTANT PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN LEE TROF A BIT
FURTHER FOR WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING/ADVANCING
MSTR FROM THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
AT LEAST SOME FORCING FOR SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HAVE ALIGNED 20-30 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
WED, MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-95. CHC POP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AGAIN ON
THU...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP INSTALLED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. SEVERE
WX NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHEAR PROFILES
REMAINING RATHER WEAK. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WOULD PORTEND TO A
CONCERN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
WED/THU...BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE INCREASING RH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY "SUMMER-LIKE" BY THE
DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS EACH DAY IN M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-
L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH
INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL VARY
BTWN A SE-SW DIRECTION...BECOMING BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING
DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MON EVENING...EXPECT AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AND
THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE SW WITH EACH PASSING DAY.
MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT TROUGH
PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST
BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SSE-SSW DIRECTION...BECOMING
BREEZY AOB 15KT EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO 20KT AT TIMES ON THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES
BAY/SOUND. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A
REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT TODAY THROUGH FRI.
HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 4FT BTWN 10-20NM IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) FROM TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



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