Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251943
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN VA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS FROM CNTRL PA TO
WRN NC BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT STRETCHES
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN
TONIGHT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FROM TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY AND DUE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST BY MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS.
TEMPS ALONG THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COASTS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 OVERNIGHT AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAINTAINS NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON TUE...
SHIFTING WWD TUE NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL MIGRATES NWD
WELL OFF THE SE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR COASTAL
AREAS WHERE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO
THE INTERACTION OF A COOL AIRMASS OVER WARMER WATERS WITH
NE/ONSHORE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SLIGHLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS MORE LATE AUGUST SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED (LOW-MID 80S...UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS TUE
NIGHT IN THE 60S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS WWD SHIFT ON WED AS TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL PASSES ABOUT 350 MILES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT
INTO THU. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...
WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
WED/WED NIGHT (ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER). THE PASSING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE
FROP AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES TILTED ACROSS FAR SE VA BACK
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN CONTACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ONCE
AGAIN DEPICT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WITH WEAK LIFT...THEREFORE
AM ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN
PIEDMONT AND AREAS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER THU AFTN/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WED/THU WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS WED/THU NIGHTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPR LVL TROUGH EXITS NEW ENGLAND THU NGT...LEAVING A WK SFC FNTL
BNDRY ACRS (SRN/SW) PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS SFC HI PRES MOVES E
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO FRI NGT...THAT FNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH N
TRHOUGH THE FA (AS A WARM FRONT), WNDS WILL SWING FM ESE TO MNLY S
THU NGT THROUGH FRI NGT. FA IN WARM SECTOR THIS WKND...W/ HI PRES
OFFSHORE AND A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHING FM THE WNW.
INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS IN
POPS BY SUN...CONTG INTO MON. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S FRI...THEN
M/U80S SAT THROUGH MON. LO TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE MID-ATLNTC COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO CLEAR AROUND 23Z. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DRY AT MID-LEVELS BUT EXPECT SCT CU (3-5K FT) TO
REDEVELOP LATE TUES MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTN. GUSTY NE
WINDS RELAX A BIT TUES AFTN WITH GUSTS BTWN 10-15 KTS AT ORF/ECG
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE IS SLOW TO RETREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRESSURE OVR NEW ENG CONTS THE PERSISTENT NE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A WK CDFNT WILL SLIP S OVR THE
WATERS WED NGT INTO THU. THAT FNT STALLS OVR THE WATERS BY THU
AFTN/NGT WHILE HI PRES SLIDES E INTO NEW ENG.

MOST SPEEDS OVR THE WATERS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA AFT EARLY TNGT.
HWVR...SEAS WILL TAKE (MUCH) LONGER TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCN...A LITTLE
FASTER OVR MUCH OF THE BAY THROUGH TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER INCRS IN
SEAS...ESP SRN PORTION WED INTO THU W/ PSBL TROPICAL SYS OFF THE
CST. FOLLOW NHC FORECASTS ON TS CRISTOBAL.

AFT PD OF NNE WNDS INTO WED...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL HAVE
DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE BY LT WED INTO WED NGT. ONCE WK SFC BNDRY
SLIPS OVR THE WATERS THU...DIRECTION BECOMES NNE THEN E INTO FRI
(W/ A PSBL SURGE IN SPEEDS TO LO END SCA...ESP NRN PORTIONS THU
MRNG).

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE LEVELS PROGGED TO COME WITHIN ONE HALF FOOT OF MINOR FLOODING
OVER THE CHES BAY RGN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN LAST NIGHTS WERE...BUT BECAUSE OF THE NEW MOON
PHASE ANTHR ROUND OF STATEMENTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL AKQ BEACH AREAS. SEE
WBCCFWAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.