Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON...HAVE CANCELLED ALL WRNGS AND ADVSYS EXCEPT FOR THE
LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR. HEAVIER SNOW WAS MOVNG ENE OFF THE CST WITH
JUST VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE ACRS THE
REGION. MAINTAINED WRNGS ON THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR FOR A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER...AS THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION YET AND
TEMPS WERE IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO
MID 30S.

PREV DISCUSSION...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BANDS SETTING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL VA. NORTHERN BAND SETTING UP NORTH OF RICHMOND WITH THE
2ND FROM THE TRI-CITIES TO MIDDLE PENINSULA AND ERN SHORE. HEAVIER
RETURNS/SLEET LIFTING INTO SE VA/NE NC. ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW REACHING THE PIEDMONT AS THE UPPER WAVE
LIFTS OVER THE REGION. IR SATELLITE INDICATING DRYING ALOFT AS THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS PUSH OFFSHORE. THE SFC LOW...LOCATED JUST OFF
CAPE HATTERAS...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SNOWFALL PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ENDING THE PRECIP INTO CNTRL VA BY 9-10AM AND THE
NRN NECK/ERN SHORE BY NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VA AND THE ERN SHORE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1-2
INCHES...BUT BANDING MAY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES. WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MORE THAN THAT AS SNOW GROWTH LAYER QUICKLY DRIES
OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 4AM EDT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX
LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH A 150+ KT UPPER JET STREAK EXITING
THE NE COAST. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEX STRETCHING ALONG THE SE COAST
AND INTO CNTRL/ERN VA IN LOW LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW. PER BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER...PWATS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 0.70 INCHES (120% OF
NORMAL) IN SE VA. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE...STRONG
UVM AND OVERRUNNING HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL REPORTED GENERALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND AS OF THIS WRITING WITH LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND WEST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SE VA HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS OF 4AM EDT. THE HEAVIEST BANDS
HAVE SET UP GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO
SMITHFIELD/NORFOLK AND THE LOWER ERN SHORE. PER DUAL POL RADAR AND
SPOTTER/MEDIA REPORTS...SOME SLEET HAS MIXED IN ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND NE NC...WITH RAIN REPORTED FOR A PERIOD AT ELIZABETH CITY.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS SE VA...NEAR THE AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY PICKED UP THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS THUS FAR.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...LOCATING EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 7AM EDT. UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX LIFTS INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSFER TO
THE COAST...WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING OUT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OVER
CNTRL VA BY MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE LIFTING INTO
THE REGION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THE SNOW OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. EXPECT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO END
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CNTRL VA BY MID MORNING. FARTHER SE...SNOW
WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER OFF...ENDING BY MID-LATE MORNING. AS THE
LOW LIFTS NEWD OFF THE COAST THRU THE MORNING...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH THERMAL ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ACROSS THE NRN NECK TO ERN SHORE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH NOON. NE WINDS INCREASE THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SE COAST AND 35 TO 40
MPH OUTER BANKS.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST.
SECONDARY/WEAKER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TODAY AS
STRONG 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. PVA
IN TANDEM WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN BUFR
SOUNDINGS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY...WARMING ONLY A FEW DEGS
FROM CURRENT TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES NW TO
6-10 INCHES SE VA. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG A LINE FROM
EMPORIA TO SMITHFIELD/HAMPTON AND CAPE CHARLES...WHERE LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED. LOWER NE NC (3-6 INCHES)
WHERE SLEET/RAIN MIX IN WITH SNOW. RICHMOND STILL ON TRACK TO SEE
3-6 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BRISK NNE WINDS PERSISTS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AS 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST
ACROSS THE OHIO VLY TOWARDS THE AREA. NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED IN W-SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING GENERAL MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND COOL PERIOD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE NORTH BUT WITH CLOUD COVER DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY
PLUMMET. HIGHS FRI MAINLY 30-35. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)
POP CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM N TO S ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER FOR FRI/EARLY
SAT, FRESH SNOWFALL AND ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR LEAD TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD W/
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SAT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A ~1040MB HIGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
TEENS O AROUND 20 DEGREES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH WAA ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO UPPER 40S S. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY. AT THIS TIME 30-40% POPS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE -RA...ALTHOUGH IT
COULD BEGIN AS -SN OR IP SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NE...TO THE MID 50S SW...ALTHOUGH WARMER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER. 12Z
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N TUESDAY. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE 30-35 RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE LOW 40S N...TO NEAR 50 S. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW LATER WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MAINLY -RA IS EXPECTED...WITH A
POSSIBLE MIX AT THE ONSET OVER NW PORTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST THROUGH THIS AFTN. NNE WNDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE STM WILL LINGER THROUGH TNGT/INTO FRI KEEPING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. KEPT BKN CIGS AVGG 15-25KFT INTO
FRI. WINDSPEEDS RMN GUSTY TO 20-25 KT..ESP NR THE CST THIS
AFTN...THEN DIMINISH FOR TNGT INTO FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WEDGE SCENARIO
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS ARND THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
FRIDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE
AT KECG ASOS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT GALE/SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST RACES NE AWAY FROM THE AREA BASICALLY FOLLOWING THE
GULF STREAM WALL TODAY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH 18Z.
SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. SEAS QUICKLY
RISE (5-7 FT ACROSS THE NRN WATERS...7-10 FT SRN WATERS) OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS N OF THE REGION TONIGHT THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST AND THE WIND WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE SUB-SCA. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS TIME-PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.1 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.9 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH:

* RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE
  10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0".

  - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.0".
  - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 12.2" MAKING
  CURRENT MONTH #9 ALL-TIME.

* NORFOLK: 5.9" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE
  10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8".

  - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.4".
  - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 11.4" MAKING
  CURRENT MONTH #7 ALL-TIME.

ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING):

          2/28      3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______   _______    __________________________________________
RIC     -1/1934   11/1937     10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF     17/1934   18/1980     14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1950   13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     14/1934   16/1937     16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY):

            2/27      2/28
          _______   _______
RIC       23/1934   28/1934
ORF       24/1934   30/1934
SBY       24/1934   29/1934
ECG       33/1963   33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ






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