Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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345
FXUS61 KAKQ 231615
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1215 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lingers over the Mid Atlantic today and then gradually
moves offshore tonight into Tuesday. High pressure builds in from
the west for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast in good shape for the midday update. Nudged pops down a
bit in the south with Z/CC data showing drizzle/rain has
temporarily dropped off. Series of weak perturbations/disturbances
on the back side of the departing upper low will set off some
additional sct showers with some iso thunder possible along and
west of I-95, where some minimal/modest instability will be
present, especially as we begin to get some filtered sun through
breaks in the overcast this afternoon. Inherited highs today
largely on track; generally in the low 60s across se portions,
with mid/upper 60s back in the E VA piedmont and I-95 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper system gradually pushes offshore and begins
to fill tonight into Tuesday. Some additional upper energy wraps
around the low as it slides offshore this evening, so likely PoPs
will be forecast from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore this evening.
PoPs this evening taper off to 30-40% for central/se VA/coastal ne
NC, and 20-30% from the sw Piedmont counties to interior ne NC. The
chc for showers then diminishes sw-ne after midnight. Partial
clearing is expected west (again, with some peeks of sun at times
out west), while conditions remain mostly cloudy to overcast for
the Ern Shore. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s.

Conditions drastically improve Tuesday with the trough weakening and
pushing offshore. The sky should become partly sunny, with only
lingering slight chc PoPs for showers/tstms closer to the coast.
Warmer with highs ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 inland,
and mid 70s closer to the coast (low 70s at the immediate coast).

A broad upper level ridge builds from the Deep South into the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon. BL mixing will
reach to around 850mb and this should result in highs reaching the
mid/upper 80s inland, with low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and
upper 70s for the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. This
will be after morning lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Forecast
soundings/model cross-sections indicate rather dry conditions aloft,
so expect dewpoints to mix down into the mid/upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the ridge becomes
more pronounced Fri through Sun, weak waves of energy/moisture
are expected to stream across the wrn fringes of the ridge.
QPF is being depicted each aftn/evening through Sat, however
this appears to be overdone given lack of preferred dynamics
and lack of definitive upper level features to aid lift for
convective development to occur. Held onto slight chance POPs
in far nw counties Thu aftn/evening and then slowly migrate
them ewd Fri/Sat. Current thinking is that the end result will
be high clouds streaming through the region rather than light
rain showers with isolated thunder. Meanwhile, low pressure
begins to develop over the Caribbean on Fri and is expected to
drift twd a location off the FL/GA coast by Sun. Will maintain
slight chance POPs for Sun/Sun night across Central VA due to
pop-up showers developing on the mtns and also in ne NC since
wraparound moisture could make it into this area during this
timeframe.

Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal
Thu-Sat. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s
beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal
Thu-Sat nights. Cooler Sun in anticipation of more clouds with
highs in the lower 80s inland and in the mid-upper 70s beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper low pres will drop into se va and ne nc this morng, then
lift e then ne off the Mid Atlc cst to off the NJ cst by Tue
morng. At the same time, sfc low pres will linger just off the
va/nc cst into this eveng before lifting ne. This will result in
area of rain or drizzle affecting the taf sites thru much of today
with IFR conditions expected all sites except SBY thru midday.
Conditions will then gradually improve to VFR conditions at all
sites late this aftn into this eveng, as sfc flow turns more n or
nw and upr low slides offshr.

OUTLOOK...With all of the moisture from previous day`s rains, if
it clears out Mon night, it is concieveable that some fog could
develop especially at KRIC which would have the best chance for
winds becoming light. Otherwise...high pressure builds across the
area for the rest of the week leading to a more late spring/early
summer pattern across the region. Generally, VFR conditions would
be expected unless patchy fog develops overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Extended the SCA for the James River from the James River Bridge
to the Hampton Roads Bridge until 1 PM. Observations still
indicated wind gusts of 20 kt or greater at 10 AM. Expect the
winds to gradually diminish as the low pres system off the coast
continues to move NE.

This morng, sfc low pres was spinning just off the va/nc cst.
This low will slowly lift NE this morning and afternoon to just
off the New England cst on Tue. Expect ne or n winds to increase
to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt ovr the Ches Bay/Currituck Snd/all
Cstl waters thru this morng. Then, winds will become n then nw and
diminish later this aftn into this eveng. Seas will bld to 5 to 6
ft during today...then subside to 3 to 4 ft late tngt into Tue
morng. Waves will bld to 2 to 4 ft in the Ches Bay thru
midday...then subside to 1 to 2 ft this eveng. SCA flags in effect
for Sound and all Bay zones, thru this morng or this aftn, and
thru late tngt for the Cstl Wtrs.

A secondary increase in wly winds may be possible late tngt into
Tue morng for the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters south of
Cape Charles Light, as sfc high pressure starts to bld into the
region fm the w. However, speeds of 10-15kt should keep the
aforementioned areas (and Currituck Sound) out of SCA flags attm.
Conditions finally quiet down Tue thru Fri. Winds will generally
be s-sw aob 15 kt. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/JEF



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