Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 150728
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
228 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure and its accompanying rain will
exit the coast early today. Much warmer conditions expected
Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front. That front drops
through the local area late Friday, bringing colder weather for
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak trough in zonal flow aloft crossing the region attm...and
will be to/off the coast through mid morning. RA accompanying
that trough will be ending between about 11-14Z/15 to be
followed by VRB clouds-mostly cloudy and warmer conditions the
rest of the day w/ SW winds increasing/becoming gusty to 20-25
mph. ISOLD-SCT SHRAs will be possible...esp NW...this afternoon.
Highs from the m-u60s on the ern shore and nrn NC Outer Banks
to the l-m70s elsehere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thu night will be unseasonably warm, mainly from 55 to 60 F,
with highs on Fri in the 60s far N and across the eastern shore
to 70-75 F elsewhere. A cold front will be pressing SE into
the region Fri afternoon...accompanied by SHRAs (PoPs
increasing to 50-70% by aftn). Otherwise partly- mostly cloudy
Fri. Turning much colder Fri night and Sat as the front
initially shifts winds to the N Fri night with the front
stalling just to our south. Looks like a decent slug of
overrunning moisture for Sat, with potential for some wintry
precipitation across much of the area (mainly all rain SE). Sfc
high to the N will slide off to the NE later in the day
allowing for rising critical thicknesses from SE to NW. Enough
low level cold air in place through early-mid aftn with a warm
nose aloft to support snow transitioning to sleet and then
mainly rain. A light snow/sleet accumulation possible mainly
along and N of a FVX to RIC to WAL line. Highs in the mid 40s SE
to the upper 30s NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Potentially messy weather to start the extended period on Saturday
night with the potential for some wintry mix, especially across
northern portions of the region. Any precipitation changes over to
rain early Sunday morning and comes to an end. Milder weather is
expected for Sunday as high pressure ridges back into the region.
Expect highs in the mid to upper 50s Sunday afternoon with sunshine.
Temperatures fall back into the mid to upper 30s on Sunday night. A
warm front moves through the area Monday bringing another chance for
rain showers by Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will range from
the lower 60s SE to the lower 50s NW. The region remains in
southwest flow through mid-week leading to highs near 70 and lows in
the 50s for many spots on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold
front looks to approach the region late in the day on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF forecast period.
BKN-OVC CIGs 6-12 kft w/ SCT -RA moving through the region
through about 12-14Z/15. SW winds increase/become gusty to 20-25
kt today w/ SCT-BKN mainly mid-high level clouds after -RA early
this morning. VRB clouds/CIGs tonight into Fri as local area
remains in warm sector. The next cold front crosses the FA late
Fri with SCT-likely SHRAs Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls
over NC Sat morning with moisture returning with RA likely
Sat afternoon/evening...possibly mixed with a little -SN at the
start at KRIC/KSBY. Turning drier w/ VFR wx Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure slides off the southeast coast later this afternoon.
Winds have flipped around to primarily the southwest and are
expected to remain around 10 knots through the afternoon. Winds pick
up overnight to around 15 knots, with possibly a few gusts
approaching 20 knots over the Bay. Seas are expected to remain
around 3 to 4 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds remain out of the
southwest around 15 knots on Thursday and increase Thursday evening
as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for at least the Bay late Thursday
through Friday. The front crosses the region Friday evening, turning
winds to the NW and leading to continued breezy conditions behind
the front. Winds diminish on Saturday before the next system
potentially impacts the region late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Well above normal temperatures Thu/Fri. Record highs are listed
below:

*       Thu 2/15     Fri 2/16

* RIC:  82 (1989)    78 (1976)
* ORF:  80 (1989)    77 (1990)
* SBY:  76 (1989)    73 (1976)
* ECG:  78 (1989)    80 (1945)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ radar will be down UFN. Further troubleshooting will continue
Thu.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.