Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE
THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



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