Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

871
FXUS61 KAKQ 151124
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
624 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain well south of the local area the
into Monday as high pressure builds across New England. A series
of weak low pressure areas will track along that boundary resulting
in periods of unsettled weather through early in the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak s/w aloft moving E and well away from the nrn Mid-Atlantic
coast...taking -RA off the coast. Widespread cloudiness remains
in its wake as sfc hi pres sits nearly stationary from Great
Lakes-New England.

Models suggest drying from the NNE today...however while CIGS
likely improve today...difficult to determine just how much
clearing occurs. Will have cloudy conditions to start this
morning...then turning partly sunny...especially N and NE. In
general...far WSW zones would have the highest chance for
remaining mostly cloudy. Highes from the m40s N to around 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models continue to begin spreading moisture back NNE into the
region Sun night into Mon...but w/ the region E of the ridge
axis (invof TN/OH valleys)...forcing for widespread/significant
pcpn (-RA) will remain weak. Thus...will have 20-40% PoPs
across the piedmont to I-95 late Sun night...lowering through
the day Mon. Skies remain partly cloudy longer Sun night over
the E/NE so some lows in the u20s will be possible from the nrn
Neck to the eastern shore...with lows in the m30s-around 40F
elsewhere. Thicknesses show p-type mainly RA...though w/
temperatures aob 32F far NNE...could be light mixed p-type far
NNE should pcpn make it that far E (late tonight/early Mon).
Cloudy Mon with CAD setup but low PoP (generally aob 20%).
Highs Mon in the l-m40s NNW to around 50F far SE. Strong sfc
lo pres moves NE to the wrn Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a warm
front N of the local area. Still uncertain on how much (if any)
sun develops so while temps moderate, highs may not get out of
the 50s (will have l60s SE for now). PoPs mainly 20-40%
Tue...highest NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal temps expected acrs the fcst area thru the extended
period. Will continue to go with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
with respect to the timing/placement of fronts and the chcs for
showers. Best chcs will be Tue night/Wed and again Fri night/Sat.

Highs will range fm the mid 50s to mid 60s thru the period, with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, and ranging fm the
upper 30s to upper 40s Wed night, Thu night, and Fri night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres is centered invof New England as of 06Z/15 w/ a
surface ridge axis extending to the S into the Mid-Atlantic
region. A stationary front is situated across SC...w/ weak sfc
lo pres off the Outer Banks. Aloft...s/w is moving off the nrn
Mid- Atlantic coast taking -RA off the coast. VRB CIGS are
expected (MVFR/IFR) through (at least mid) morning. VSBY is
generally expected to remain aoa 4SM. CIGS are expected to lift
N-S w/ some clearing expected by aftn. Sfc hi pres will remain
over the region Sun night into Mon...although mid and high
clouds are expected to increase Monday. A warm front pushes into
the FA later Mon night and lifts N of the region Tue. This
could produce some MVFR cigs late Mon night into Tue morning. A
cold front approaches from the NW Tue night and crosses the area
Wed. This will bring a chc of rain along with degraded flight
conditions. High pressure is expected to return Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high
pres builds in from the west. A weak northerly surge is expected
later this morng, with 15 kt winds staying just below SCA
criteria over the Bay. Sub-sca conditions then continue early
this week with high pres remaining in the vicinity and the front
staying south of the area...1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft
seas over coastal waters. A warm front lifts north through the
area Tue, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next
cold front which crosses the waters Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ/ALB
MARINE...MAS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.