Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 142040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
440 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLD SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS SETTLED IN OVER
CENTRAL VA AND MD WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SC. A FEW HOLES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
MUCH OF CENTRAL VA AND NE NC HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH A WEAK S/W WILL ALLOW
THE CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND MOVE EAST ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASING TREND AND
THE CAA IS WEAKENING. DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER
MAY INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NE AND ACROSS MD TO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC NC WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
IN LONGER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE MON LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 INLAND.

NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER WEEK AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND QPF. WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY TUE AFTN WITH NW FLOW
AT 850 MB BY 18Z. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
(45%-55%) AND SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC (40%-50%). LOWERS POPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST (25% TO 35%). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO MID 60S AT THE COAST.

POPS DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON
AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE FRONT
PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGH WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL LEAN TWD THE 12Z GFS MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR
OF A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM SCNTRL CANADA ESE ACRS NRN
NEW ENGLAND...THEN OFF THE CST FOR WED NGT THRU SAT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AUTUMN-LIKE
TEMPS...AS A PERSISTENT NE FLO DOMINATES. THAT NE FLO WILL BE
STRONGER...ESPLY OVR THE WTRS...THU AFTN INTO SAT AFTN. THE HI
WILL WEAKEN OVR THE AREA OR MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE DURING
SUN. LGT SE OR S FLO WILL DEVELOP OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE
LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
70S THU...FRI...AND SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOTS OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST KRIC SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SCTD TO
OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT AT KECG...SHOULD PERIODICALLY
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. BUT...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE 00Z.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY
RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL ZNS FM CHINCOTEAGUE TO
CURRITUCK BEACH LGT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENG FOR SEAS. HI PRES WILL
BLD ACRS THE NE U.S. AND OFF THE CST TNGT THRU MON. NNE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KT EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON AFTN...THEN BECOMES ESE LESS
THAN 10 KT BY MON EVENG. TROF OF LO PRES THEN CROSSES THE AREA
LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW OR N. NNE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED FOR TUE AFTN/TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS
ACRS THE OH VLY INTO PA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLO WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE WTRS FM WED THRU AT LEAST FRI. SEAS WILL APPROACH
AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT...ESPLY WED NGT THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG





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